To quote Pat Narduzzi: the preseason is over. With wins over YSU and Akron, Pitt overcame some of the demons of the Chryst era with one last hurdle: beating Iowa. To be more specific, don’t blow a fourth quarter lead against Iowa, something both Paul Chryst and Fraud Graham did. Unfortunately, Iowa is already well-versed in the art of a fourth quarter comeback as the Hawkeyes broke a 17-17 tie late in the fourth quarter against Iowa State last week.
Let’s breakdown the Hawkeyes to see if they have another fourth quarter comeback in them.
Offense:
Iowa’s offense is going to look a lot like the 2014 game and that could be good or bad depending on your perspective. QB CJ Beathard, who started the second half last year and led the comeback, returns. Iowa’s starting RB is new, but LeShun Daniels Jr. is faster and more agile than last year’s starter Mark Weisman. Daniels may be hurt, which means senior Jordan Canzeri would likely take the bulk of the snaps. Canzeri is a smaller, more agile back and not the type to carry the load, so I’d expect someone else on the depth chart to step up as well. Canzeri is a threat in the passing game, which will put a lot of pressure on Pitt’s LBs.
On the OL, Iowa looks the same as always, albeit without a surefire 1st round pick this year. They average about 6’4 295 pounds and love to run block. Iowa is running the ball over 60% of the time as is tradition. At WR and TE, expect the ball to be spread around a lot, although Matt Vandeberg has had a fantastic start to the season.
Iowa is going to do what they always do: establish the run and use the passing game to pick up yards in chunks. They’ll throw a trick play or two in there as well. Even if no one is open, Beathard is a mobile QB (103 yards and 2 TDs rushing) whose legs must be accounted for. If the defense gives him space, he’ll eat up yards. He appears more accurate than last season as well. He may be good enough to beat Pitt even if Iowa struggles to run the ball. He also takes care of the ball with only two interceptions in his last 151 attempts (none this year).
Strategy wise, you have to gamble that Beathard can’t beat you with his arm. Avonte Maddox has been incredible so far and Lafayette Pitts is a four year starter. Trust them to keep Iowa’s WRs in check so you can pull an extra safety into the box to help with the run. The interior of Pitt’s DL has been very disruptive, primarily Tyrique Jarrett. I’d attack the middle of the OL with Grigsby and have DEs play a little contain to force Beathard to beat you from the pocket. With pressure up the middle, aggressive coverage from the CBs, and nowhere to run, that’ll put Beathard in a position to have to rely only on his arm for points.
One advantage Pitt does have against Iowa is that the defense will stay in base 4-3 coverage even if Iowa brings out 3 WRs. Iowa will often line up with 3 WRs and still run the ball consistently. With seven men still in the box, this gives Pitt an advantage as most teams will pull a LB for a DB in 3 WR sets (nickel). Iowa relies on this to open space to run. As I’ve stressed often, Narduzzi and Conklin’s scheme places a lot of pressure on safeties.
Defense:
Drew Ott, Iowa’s best DE, is questionable for the game at best. Ott is an excellent pass rusher and when he left the game against Iowa State it was very obvious that the Hawkeyes ability to rush the passer dropped. A 4-3 defense that is missing its top pass rusher poses a good opportunity for Pitt’s offense. Pass blocking has been inconsistent so far this season and one less threat is a big help.
Another area of concern for the Hawkeyes is pass coverage. In the first half of last week’s game, ISU QB Sam Richardson was 12/15 186 yards and 2 TDs. He regressed in the second half as Iowa’s D stepped up. This is a bit odd as Iowa returns both starters at CB. One starter, Greg Mabin, was a WR until last season, but progressed quickly. He was a key player in closing out Iowa’s victory over Pitt last year with two late pass breakups. Desmond King had a rough game against Iowa State, but he has some NFL draft hype.
Iowa is going to do what any team does against Pitt: sell out on the run and double cover Boyd. Pitt has talent at WR and TE, but there’s no proof Pitt can win games without Boyd or running the ball well the past three seasons. The QB controversy lends credence to this even more. Will Ollison, Hall, and James make up the 155 yards Conner chewed up last year against Iowa?
Overall:
This Iowa team looks like most Iowa teams. They’ll win seven or eight games, lose respectfully to their superior opponents, throw in an ugly loss somewhere, rinse and repeat. To me, this game is more about how good is Pitt. I have a good feel for Iowa; I still don’t have a good feel for Pitt. My heart and my head tell me two different things.
Head Prediction: Iowa with home field advantage, solid QB play and a good defense win 27-17. Pitt struggles on offense and Iowa take advantage of a few short fields.
Heart Prediction: Peterman or Voytik step up and lead the offense. The defense continues to prove what superior coaching can do and Pitt wins 31-20.
Hail to Pitt.
Well from what I’ve seen of this defense this year and how the offense finally got some rhythm with Peterman against Akron, I think that Iowa’s edge is smaller than a lot are believing and that Pitt will have a good chance to come out with a victory. If almost everything goes right. I’m saying it feels like to me there’s a better chance of almost everything going right in any particular game. Last year PC surprised us knocking around BC in the first half then he did whatever he did that took Pitt’s foot off their throats. Pitt still won anyway. I think Narduzzi just might surprise us the same way in Iowa but he is not gonna take his team’s foot off any other team’s throat if he gets it there.
This is a huge game for Pitt! Hope HCPN decides not to rest any starters (like Pederson) aka Hurdle.
Shine on Cathedral Victory Lights.
Hopefully that becomes a great Pitt tradition.
Now only if we could combine some Fire with that. 🙂
Maybe even a flying gargoyle swooping down from atop the Cathedral onto our opposing teams mascot on the Cathedral lawn. That would be a spectacle indeed.
Hopefully ACC, as we got several breaks last week as opposed to the year’s MAC reffed game against the Zips.
Almost as crazy as last week starting Sean Rodriguez at SS, in his first start at SS the whole year. Guy promptly made 2 game changing errors.
And their baserunning is Little League-ish.
Chad hasn’t done anything this year….just like the beginning of last year! It seems he began to light it up last year when XHCPC began using him in the read option. I thought that got his adrenalin going, and he began to jell.
We haven’t seen him on any designed runs – save one against YSU. I’m thinking Chaney has been keeping that under his hat – no need to use it yet. I think Nate starts out, and then Chad comes in, and starts running wide; maybe a few wildcats to go with it. It would sure be nice to see him (them)tire the D out. Then bring Nate back in to take advantage of a winded D.
Iowa has pitched two shutouts thus far, and I don’t expect too much scoring. Out D has gotten better each game, and I expect that to continue, as well. Unless we tire their D out, and Nate plays a great game, I see single digits, or at least two scores in the teens. Kicking game could win it!!! May be time for Blewett to shine!
A few TOs and TFLs by OUR D would be well received, as well.
H2PN! Visualize 3-0!!
I thought the Cyclones scored 17 points last week. And it was 17-17 in the 3rd quarter. No ?
We will win. It will be a good close game. Didn’t we almost beat this team last year? We know how bad we were. I’d like to think we are a bit better.
I say 8 wins based on nothing. I don’t care about history. At the end of the day my life doesn’t change. If you say 6-6 you are not a fan, you just aren’t
P.S. I love revisionist history. Let’s see how this plays out.
Iowa’s record so far,
Win over Illinois St 31-14
Win over Iowa St 31-17
if you haven’t heard, Temple is trying to get it together to build an on campus stadium.
Let that register. Temple.
–On CV running, he had some read-options in the Akron game but played them poorly – seemed the handouts or fakes were awkward and out-of-sync.
–I keep thinking about the breakdowns in the YSU game and Jerome Lane’s kid being open and getting his hands on passes (before he dropped them) and it really makes me worry that a decent QB – which Iowa is supposed to have – is going to hit some big pass plays against us…
–Offense is going to have to play much, much better and D is going to have to get some turnovers for Pitt to win.
Go Pitt.
Is it because they are from the B1G, who has only two teams this year that are contenders, in tOSU and Mich St? The media seems to hype B1G football even when they are down.
Pitt needs to take care of business in Iowa City this weekend in a focused and passionate manner. A W is in sight – go get it boys…
6-6 is synonymous with being a Pitt fan. Our record over the last 30 years is ridiculously close to .500. This is a team that is returning most of last years team that went…6-6. Yes, they are a year older, but they are also minus the returning ACC player of the year and Heisman contender that was supposed to be a huge part of said 6-6 team’s strength.
For those of us that think a loss is possible Saturday on our way to a 6-6 season, doesn’t make us any less of a fan. Just makes us realists really…
Mercer ended up at cleanup cause he took Kang’s place after he broke his leg/tore mcl. Disastrous series all around
Like everyone else here, I thought we would have a winning record for the past few years … and especially last year with that easy schedule. This year the schedule is not so friendly and we have a lot of youth on defense.
Having said that … I really believe next year will be the year, even losing Boyd and Conner.
Right now is all about Iowa. They are beatable, as I’m sure Iowa is feeling the same about Pitt.
D it up and hammer the Hawkeyes.
HTP!
SOP – Stay Optimistic Please!
I think Boyd will make the difference as long as the O-line holds up. The D won’t fold like last year.
Pitt has a statement game!
If it has anything to do with winning now – I can tell you from my business experiences, you learn a lot from your past (good and bad). You have to learn from both and make now and the future better.
There is a lot at Pitt that is different from the past few years – new chancellor (who seems more engaged with the FB program), new AD (enough said there) and a new HC (who seems focused and is 2-0).
SOP as we knew it is on life support in my world –
Haven’t seen it yet. I know it was only YSU & Akron. But less we forget, two teams that had our number last time we met. Now on to Iowa and the conclusion of the Panther’s redemption tour. I’ve realized that Narduzzi has a knack of not showing his hand. There is a lot that goes on behind closed doors and closed practices that the public is not privy to.
We are in the midst of a new dawn, 1st season for yet another first time head coach. So far we’re undefeated. And when I hear the first comment out of this head coach’s mouth being that “the preseason is over” it makes me aware that this guy expects motivated, focused effort from his players or they’ll find themselves riding the pine.
These first two contests gave a whole lot of guys a chance to show what they got on the field of play. Narduzzi has made it crystal clear, practice like you play, those that practice best see the field, every single week. Competition is a constant for this team now. That is not SOP.
This team is at the doorstep of a pivotal contest. It’s first Power 5 challenge, it’s second away game in a row, the following week a bye to rest, regroup and prepare for our first ACC for.
Make no mistake about it, this staff is all about this game, right now. Not next game, not next month not next year, NOW.
I’m off the Koolaid, I haven’t “seen” the goods that convinces me that the Panthers win tomorrow night against the Hawkeye’s. But what has been transporting behind those closed doors over the last two months? I don’t know, you don’t know and most importantly, the Hawkeye’s don’t know. Maybe this team comes out and shows everybody why this season is different from last year& the year before that & the year before that, etc.
This ain’t Wannstedt, Graham or Chryst this is Narduzzi, and so far he has been doing most everything right. Winning tomorrow night would be the next thing done right in his new Narduzzi era. Absolutely no reason at this point to be talking about “next year”, I’m all about now!
Humble the Hawkeye’s! Hail to Pitt!
I do see a bigger commitment now by the new chancellor but it won’t happen overnight. We have a new staff and much youth, and still a little low in talent in areas.
No one will be happier than me if we win 8 or 9, but I’ll be damned if I will freak out if we end up 6 and 6.
Nice kids, represented themselves and the school well. Lot’s of “yes sirs”, and “thank you’s” from both.
Both funny kids, easy to smile. Worried about typical kids stuff at that age, girlfriends, where’s the best pizza, and yes, their grades and classes.
Both very excited and pumped up for the game this week.
Nice fella’s!!
Enough said on this subject – re-focusing on Iowa.
HTP!
Pretty sure Nova’s been a 1 and 2 seed respectively since Pitt, Cuse, etc. bolted to the ACC. Now, mind you, they’ve exited early in each case. But, outstanding regular seasons and BET from them.