Pitt is supposed to find out sometime this week if Mike Cook will get that 6th year.

“They’ve got all the material,” Dixon said. “The process has gone exactly as we thought it would. We’re going to know this week.”

…

“I haven’t really been thinking about it,” he said. “The toughest thing right now is getting my knee better. It feels real good. I’m running on it now. I will start cutting on it probably in the next week or two.”

Pitt has awarded all of its scholarships for the 2007-08 season, so if Cook is granted a sixth-year of eligibility, the Panthers’ next goal would be to find him one. A possibility would be redshirt sophomore center Austin Wallace, who is still recovering from knee surgery last season.

The other possibility is if one of the incoming players does not qualify. There are some rumors swirling that JUCO transfer Jermaine Dixon might have academic problems. I don’t know.

Meanwhile, despite all of Pitt’s scholarships filled and the possibility of Mike Cook returning as well. Iowa State free agent Wesley Johnson continues to consider Pitt.

SF Wesley Johnson, who averaged 12.4 points as an Iowa State sophomore, is scheduled to start making visits as he begins his transfer process. Johnson is expected to visit Ohio State and Pitt, and he’s strongly considering Syracuse. With his length and toughness — he averaged 7.9 rebounds as a freshman — Johnson can make an impact after sitting out a year.

In the same article there’s a bit on Sam Young and playing more at small forward.

Pitt’s Sam Young, three years into a career he expected to spend as a small forward, has played almost exclusively as a power forward. As a freshman and sophomore, he wasn’t comfortable with the offense while playing the perimeter and contributed inside because of his toughness and athleticism. Last season, he played up front because Pitt needed him there. But the Panthers hope to play a bigger lineup this season, making greater use of 6-10 Gary McGhee and 6-8 Tyrell Biggs, which could free Young to play more minutes at small forward. Young was scheduled to get a nice education in that art as a counselor at Nike’s Vince Carter Skills Academy this week in Orlando. The camp is designed for top young high school wing players.

Obviously for Young to get to the NBA he needs to develop more on the wing. The issue is not his offense, but his defense at that spot. To be honest, I’m not sure a camp named for Vince Carter would be much on defensive skill sets.

Finally, Pitt is still looking for a quality opponent (Insider subs.) to play at Madison Square Garden.

Pitt is desperate to get a Dec. 17 opponent for a game in Madison Square Garden. Only teams from the top six conferences need apply.

Um, actually five conferences (and Memphis). It’s not like Pitt will schedule a non-con with a conference team. Considering it’s at the Garden and ESPN would almost certainly televise, you would think there would be a lot more interest in the exposure.

A nice bit of information about Oral Roberts and their offense with a couple of Summit League Coaches (the Summit League changed their name from Mid-Continent after last year).

“You’ve got to stay on them and make them beat you off the dribble,” Phillips said. “It’s going to hurt your help-side (defense) and other things. But you’ve got to hug on those guys. They will shoot anytime.”

Jarvis is not shy about shooting from anywhere on the court. His range is legendary in the Summit League. It almost as if he considers a 19-foot, 9-inch 3-pointer to be an insult.

“Jarvis is an incredible shooter. He has unlimited range,” said Kampe, whose team played Oral Roberts to a pair of close losses. “His range is one step off the bus, and he’s not afraid to shoot it from there. He will shoot anytime, any place.”

Said Phillips, “Jarvis’ range is ridiculous. He will shoot 26-27 feet. You’ve certainly got to be in full-chase mode.”

Always scary when facing a team that has a guy who shoots from outside, and can go way outside. That said, the defense of ORU — their strength — might have a mismatch issue with Sam Young.

“He’s a guy you try playing bigger men on, but he can pull them out on the floor because he can shoot 3s and put the ball on the floor,” Sutton said. “He’s going to be a tough matchup for somebody.”

Ideally, the Eagles would like to stick Yemi Ogunoye, their 6-foot-9 defensive stopper, on Young. But that could create a problem.

Young is strong enough to play power forward next to freshman center De Juan Blair in the Panthers’ deceptively small lineup. With no starter taller than Blair’s 6-foot-7, the Panthers finished fourth in rebounding against taller foes in the mega-competitive Big East, which sent eight of its 16 teams into the Big Dance.

They ripped Georgetown and 7-foot-2 Roy Hibbert on the boards 41-29 in the championship game.

If Ogunoye takes Young, the Eagles will be forced to use a smaller lineup — or have 6-foot-10 Shawn King or 6-foot-9 Marcus Lewis matched up on one of Pitts’ three guards.

“And that’s not something you want to do,” Sutton said.

The Golden Eagles have size in their frontcourt, but they rely on their guards to score. The Deadspin pants party preview also introduces us to a new Pitt blog — The Mosh Pitt. Welcome, guys.

I hate looking beyond. And I’m not, since I’m not assuming Michigan State even beats Temple — any team that can score only 36 points in a loss to Iowa, losing to Penn State and to a D-II team in an exhibition should never be considered a lock (even if they also beat Texas). I mean let’s face it, Michigan State can be one of the more unpredictable teams. That said, Tom Izzo is expressing a bit of confidence.

His expectations “are actually the highest they’ve been in a lot of years,” he added. “If we get some key guys playing well at the same time, we’re good enough to win the weekend.

“And if you’re good enough to win the weekend, it means you might have faced Pittsburgh, which has beaten (No. 2 seed) Georgetown and another two seed (Duke), and you’ve already played teams like (No. 1 seed) UCLA and (No. 2 seed) Texas during the season.”

It’s just getting them to play well all at the same time. Something they have struggled to do.

I’ve got theories. I just don’t have answers.

Pitt’s defense has just disappeared, and it defies explanation for this sustained problem. It isn’t like they have played bad defense all season. It’s been the last 2+ weeks, but it hasn’t been fixed over the six games in that time. There have been brief moments. Even, perhaps halves where the defense started to look better. But it just keeps slipping.

It isn’t just better teams and players. There’s just something missing right now.

The sustained problems makes all of the theories weak explanations. They might excuse a game, perhaps 2, but this long a stretch renders them highly unlikely.

Theory 1: Levance Fields has returned.

The return of Levance Fields to the lineup meant the team’s rotation was changed again. Minutes — especially for the guards/small forward — are now very different. Spacing on the court, assignments and just reconnecting with the chemistry has to happen.

Mentally, the players relaxed on defense because with Fields back, order was supposed to be restored. The players were more concerned with getting the offense back up. To do more scoring and running. Not focused on the defense.

Theory 2: The Providence Effect.

Sometimes, for a team that has had to gut out games each time, nothing can be worse than having such an easy time of things on both ends of the court. Pitt just smacked around the Friars before the defense went to hell.

Providence is a horrible defensive team and really not too great on offense if the 3s aren’t falling. Pitt was able to do anything they wanted against Providence and didn’t have to work too hard on defense.

That filled the players with false confidence about what they could do. That they could score at will and sit back more on defense.

Theory 3: Too Much Gambling.

Pitt has continually been out of position on defense. Everyone has been screaming about the fundamentals. Pitt’s defense has been about solid fundamentals. Keeping good position and make a team have to take a contested shot. Nothing fancy. Stay with the man and don’t be leave the man for the ball.

Lately, there’s been a lot of aggressive slapping and poking at the basketball. Trying to get the steal and force the turnover. The problem with that is if you miss or don’t make a play, you go out of position. It means an easy pass or score. That seems to be happening a lot.

Theory 4: Exhaustion.

Physical and mentally, this team might just be worn down.

The physical side is obvious. They have been playing a 7 man rotation for most of the Big East schedule. They are a banged up team with off-season surgeries and physical rehab looming.

Then there’s the mental toll of playing short-handed for half the season. Especially with 3 freshmen and redshirt freshman seeing double-digit minutes. No chance to just feel like they can catch their breath or just plain stop for a minute.

Don’t worry, basketball hasn’t been forgotten. Just shunted to the side for the day.

There was a question about the kind of offense Pitt runs. Which Ray Fittipaldo called a basic motion offense.

The offense is your basic motion offense that many other teams in college basketball run. The stagnancy you’re seeing the past few games has more to do with the personnel running it than the philosophy behind the offense. When this offense is run well — as it was earlier in the season — it is very effective. The Panthers have routinely shot 50 percent or more in games with this offense. Even though the Panthers found a way to win three of their first four Big East games, they do not have enough talent on offense to overcome the loss of two starters.

This is essentially true and plays into something I have been meaning to link for a week or so. The Basketball X’s&O’s blog looks at the game ending play Pitt ran against Duke and Villanova. The five-up screen.

Definitely click over to see the diagramming and breaking down of the play. I’m skipping to his concluding comments.

The play works because in late-game situations, traditional thinking defensively is to switch on all picks. We do it, everyone does it, you always switch all picks late in games. So here, the “5 up” is designed to get a switch and the guard should be able to take the slower forward 1v1. Also, you have a mismatch down low for the offensive rebound with a bigger forward being guarded by a smaller guard.

…

In analyzing the plays, it’s clear what the message here is. Players win games. You can have the best game winning play ever designed, but in the end, it’s the guy that swishes the net that takes the glory if he hits it and the heat if he misses.

For the truly obsessed, you can actually buy Jamie Dixon instructional DVDs. Including one on the Spread Motion: 4-in, 1-out Offense. Or you can see another example/variance on the 4-in, 1-out as he there is a break down of San Diego’s (I really can get lost in time looking through this site).

Hoopsworld.com looks at some of the best small forward prospects in the NCAA. Sam Young is listed as third.

Sam Young has been able to step up on the offensive side of the ball this season. Pitt needed some more scoring from the junior forward and Young responded by increasing his scoring average by 11 points from a year ago. At over 18 points a game, Young is currently the fourth leading scorer in one of the toughest conferences (Big East). Young’s awkward form causes some inconsistencies with his outside shot. His shooting percentages (49 fg% and 40 3pt%) are pretty good however. Young allows the game to come to him. He moves without the ball well and can knock down the spot up jumper.

At 6’6, Young will be undersized at the small forward position in the NBA. He has a well developed muscular frame that allows him to body up defenders well in the post. He fights hard on the glass pulling down 7 rebounds a game, which lets you know that he has no problem getting physical in the paint. With some developed skill sets on the perimeter, Young will be able to get some burn at the 2 guard position.

Let’s not presume Levance Fields will be back by the Marquette game.

“I would say [Feb. 15] is on the aggressive side based on what we know [now],” [Athletic Trainer Tony] Salesi said. “Even if we get a good report on Thursday and we can start doing a few more things that doesn’t leave you much time to get ready for a game. You’re talking about getting back into running, shooting and practice. A lot of it will be what Levance can handle. I think when he said that it was an overly optimistic time frame.”

Salesi allowed that athletes heal faster than most people and that there is always a chance that Fields could come back earlier than he expects.

Pitt originally set a timetable of 8 to 12 weeks after surgery. Yesterday was five weeks from the date of his surgery. If Fields comes back at eight weeks, he would be able to play in the final three regular-season games and the postseason tournaments.

That would be the games at Syracuse, at WVU and DePaul.

Late to just get through some things.

Shockingly, Doug Gottlieb might be reconsidering a slightly hyperbolic statement (Insider subs.).

I may have overreacted on ESPN News when declaring Pitt an NIT team due to injuries. Pitt played its tail off in its loss to Nova on Sunday. Jamie Dixon had great depth early on, and his style of preaching mental toughness helps the Panthers battle through this incredibly tough time.

From a basketball tournament in Houston last week, one of Pitt’s late recruits, Dwight Miller was playing. He made Van Coleman’s list of players that stood out.

This active rebounder and low block scorer had some moments in Houston, scoring 13 points and grabbing eight rebounds in the game we watched. If he ups his intensity he will be a force.

Seth Davis at SI.com, unsurprisingly puts Pitt in his “sell” category in his annual “Stock report” on NCAA Tournament Teams. I think the reasons are well known at this point.

You’ll want to keep an eye on this one because there’s still some talent here, but even though the Panthers put up a good fight at Villanova on Sunday before losing, the reality is they have lost two starters to injury, including the one guy they could least afford to lose in point guard Levance Fields. Not only is Ronald Ramon not a point guard, but if Ramon is running the offense, that means he isn’t catching the ball on the wing. They’re saying Fields might come back from his foot injury at the end of the season, but I doubt that will leave him enough time to take the Panthers deep into the NCAA tournament.

There’s a good chance Pitt will use a little more zone, as they did late against ‘Nova. Just don’t expect too much.

Ramon is going to have a hard time getting shots running the point. That was already rather obvious. Not sure he should try too hard to force it.

Ron Cook felt Pitt at least had a mental victory in Philly. Coach Dixon, though, doesn’t buy that stuff.

“Our guys feel they should have won this game — no matter how many players we have,” Pitt coach Jamie Dixon said, the deafening roar from the home crowd after Villanova’s 64-63 win still ringing in his aching ears.

“We still have the guys to get it done.”

Dixon seemed more disappointed, more frustrated, maybe even angrier after this game than he has been after other losses, although the truth is he has been so successful that there really hasn’t been much of a sampling to gauge. Maybe it was because he knows Pitt wasted a big chance to get a precious conference road win mostly because of 22 turnovers, some of which could be attributed to being without Fields — the team’s best player — and others to fatigue from having to play with such a short bench. More likely, though, it was because he knows this game quite likely provided a damning glimpse of how this Big East season will play out.

Contrast this approach with the poor mouthing and moaning by the coach of Pitt’s opponent on Saturday.

But Gonzalez, whose team is in Milwaukee to face No. 15 Marquette tonight in its second Big East game of the season, would argue that the loss of guard Paul Gause is more devastating to Seton Hall than Pittsburgh’s losses are to the Panthers.

“Pittsburgh loses Mike Cook and Levance Fields and they put in Terrell Biggs and Keith Benjamin — now, we would kill for those guys,” Gonzalez said after the Pirates’ victory over Morgan State on Saturday. “When Seton Hall loses Paul Gause, we can’t absorb that loss, like some of the rich people in the conference. We don’t have enough players, enough talent. So, it’s a fight. For us to win any game from here on out without Paul is going to be tough. Because it’s tough to win a league game on the road with him, it’s going to be really tough without him.”

Whether that is some sort of blunt assessment or a motivating tool to send a message to his players in the media, I don’t think much of it. It’s one thing to pull a Lou Holtz and puff an opponent. It’s another to essentially tell your team, they don’t have the talent to compete.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the Pirates lost tonight to Marquette. It was a good effort by Seton Hall, and they were definitely helped by the fact that the refs swallowed their whistles on a lot of inside stuff — we can only hope for similar officiating when Pitt faces Marquette.

Here’s a shocker. The national theme of Pitt’s loss is that the team is struggling without Levance Fields. Now, before you just scream, “duh!” Keep in mind that going into the season, the national writers presumed Pitt would be a top-25 team, but wasn’t exactly sure how. To a large degree that applies to the national audience — or at least the presumption. So, there is a belief or need to explain now how much that hurts Pitt and to explain the loss.

Mike Cook is gone for the year. LeVance Fields is out 8-11 weeks. Jamie Dixon is down to seven scholarship players, and while he’ll undoubtedly keep Pitt battling, can he really keep this injury-riddled team competitive in the Big East? It missed a golden opportunity in Sunday’s 64-63 loss to Villanova. Maybe it was fatigue (six Pitt players went at least 23 minutes) or the fact that they’re down to three guards (one of which, Ronald Ramon, [above] is battling injuries) but the Panthers were done in by 22 turnovers, including one with 10 seconds to go. Big East play is not the place to find a team’s identity but Dixon has to discover new-look Pitt’s in a hurry.

Yes, factual error in number of scholarship players, but it effectively is 7 until Dixon plays Diggs or McGhee.

And this bit.

Sunday offered a glimpse of how badly Pittsburgh is going to miss Levance Fields. The Panthers needed a game-winning play in the final seconds, and in normal circumstances the ball would’ve been in Fields’ hands. But because the junior point guard is out with an injured foot the ball was in Ronald Ramon’s hands, and his hands turned it over for the fifth time and allowed Villanova to escape with a 64-63 victory.

Former Philly area sportswriter, now with ESPN.com did a whole article on Pitt trying to adjust.

So, understandably, when the question was posed, Young paused for a considerable time before answering truthfully.

“I don’t know,” the Pitt forward said. “I’m trying to figure that out right now. I’m sure the coaches and the rest of my team are trying, too. We’re trying to see how it will work. There’s a lot of stuff going on, and we’re trying to figure it out. In the process, we’re trying to win games.”

…

Afterward, it would have been easy for Dixon to throw up his hands and say, “What can you do?” No doubt, most hoops aficionados across the country are doing just that.

But Dixon isn’t one of them.

“There’s no excuse for this. We should have won,” Dixon said. “We had it. We played well enough to win.”

No, you won’t find the Panthers crying in their soup. They shed tears after Cook went down, got through the shock after Fields hobbled off, but quickly have realized January is not the time for the group pity party. Young admitted his team is a little lost in the game plan department, but he quickly followed up by insisting that his team will find its way.

The Panthers (12-2, 0-1 Big East) even have a morbid sense of humor about the whole thing. On the pregame press release, underneath the roster, associate media relations director Greg Hotchkiss prints the team’s disabled list.

The article also says that Ramon is “playing with one dislocated shoulder and likely a torn rotator cuff in the other.” You know, I see teams playing with 4 guards. Wonder if Pitt will end up playing with 4 forwards at some point?
Coach Dixon appears to really be pushing the point publicly that regardless of the injuries, there are no excuses. I imagine that is as much for the players. To let them know the coaches and players are still accountable, and that the season isn’t over just because bad things have happened. Something the players are also saying publicly.

“Levance … I’d love to have him on the team, but he’s not here right now,” Blair said. “We have to play with who we got. We just have to keep our heads. We have to have trust in everyone..

“We can’t get Levance back. We can’t get Cook back.

Someone has to step up. We just have to play through it and not think about it.”

Villanova got huge contributions from a freshman and reshirt freshman in Malcolm Grant and Antonio Pena. Grant who already this season showed tremendous accuracy and range on his three-point shooting put it on display against Pitt. Pena, provided a much needed extra body inside for rebounding and put backs with Drummond out.

Villanova Coach Jay Wright, did acknowledge that his team won in large part because of who Pitt didn’t have.

“Let’s not make any mistakes about it,” Villanova coach Jay Wright said. “This is a game where Levance Fields steps up big-time.”

But he’s not available right now.

I suppose it’s very frustrating, because I’m sure we can all think of just a couple plays that if Pitt hadn’t made a mistake or the ball went in, Pitt would be the winner. Instead Pitt loses 64-63.

That’s the nature of a tight loss. The “what if” game.

• What if Blair had made any of those bunnies around the basket (5-14), or even one more free throw (2-5)?
• What if Benjamin hadn’t committed that final dumb foul that put him out of the game and gave ‘Nova the and-1?
• What if Ramon hadn’t committed any number of turnovers? Or Ramon hadn’t missed the front end of a 1-and-1?

And those are just a few off the top of my head.

You can bet if Villanova had lost, their fans would be playing the same game considering the way Pitt shut down Cunningham, Reynolds, Fisher and Redding. The Villanova bench bailed out the starters in this game. Grant and Pena scored 34 points. The Wildcat starters came up with 25. I guess that’s what makes the loss frustrating. The primaries were stopped, but other ‘Nova players stepped in.

Overall, this is what has to be expected for most of the Big East schedule. Very up-and-down play. Moments where it looks like Pitt can overcome it all and moments where the team looks totally lost. I expect it will improve later in the season, but to not expect some tremendous inconsistencies over the next 2-3 weeks is not being realistic.

Teams like Villanova, Marquette, Seton Hall and Syracuse. With their strength so obviously in their backcourt will be among the teams that really force Pitt to struggle.

Of greater concern to me is that I don’t think this team is in a position to stick with a 7-man rotation. In both halves, I saw Pitt start to wear down physically as the players just couldn’t get enough of a blow on the bench. All the starters played at least 30 minutes, with Blair leading with 37 minutes. They hit a point with 7 minutes in each half, where they really seemed to lose a step. Villanova went 8 deep (technically 9, but Stokes only played 5 minutes) with at least 15 minutes of playing time. I believe that Coach Dixon knows from practice that Diggs, Frye and McGhee aren’t ready for the primary game situations; but he may not have a choice. I really worry that someone else will go down, because they are so worn out in the game, that they just take a bad step or move.

In some ways, this is what Oklahoma State endured last season. A team that started so strong, just didn’t have enough bodies because of injuries that derailed a promising season.

A couple other thoughts.

Blair needs to work on being better at positioning himself to receive the ball. The competition is better now, and without Fields, the passing not nearly as crisp. That means he needs to help make sure he has position to protect the ball on entry passes. It’s why he isn’t getting the ball as directly and more off of rebounds. Ramon at least recognizes his limitations and isn’t forcing the ball inside. It’s why Young got more balls tossed into him than Blair.

I think we can expect a lot more slower tempo games from Pitt. The good news is that Young seems willing to play in that system. He wants to run, we want him to run. Right now the team can’t, and as a leader and top player he seems to know that is playing within the present constraints.

Even without Fields, Pitt can control and impose the tempo on other teams.

It’s been a while since a team with as high a national ranking as Pitt’s has traveled to Dayton.

UD hasn’t had a visit from a team ranked sixth or higher since a memorable 72-71 victory over No. 3 DePaul on Feb. 18, 1984.

“It’s a terrific opportunity for us,” UD Athletic Director Ted Kissell said. “With nonconference scheduling being what it is, you’re just not going to get many of these (games) anymore. I think it’s going to be a very, very special environment.”

Dayton has fans. They did rank 26th nationally in attendance last year, but this will be their first full house of the season (the Xavier game in February is also sold out).

For Dayton to have a chance against Pitt, their talented freshman forward, Chris Wright will probably need to have a good game. At the very least, they will need him to play. He’s been hobbled by an ankle sprain that he didn’t tell the coaching staff about, and has lingered. At this point, he hasn’t played or practiced in over a week and will be a game time decision. I’d assume he will play and be effective, but that will keep Dayton fans a bit nervous.

Pitt, of course, has it’s own issues with injuries. Mike Cook will be replaced in the starting line-up by Gilbert Brown.

“I have to be more aggressive and be ready from the start instead of just playing fill-in minutes and giving energy to the team. I have to be more consistent with what I do.”

Brown is one of three players who will see increased playing time due to Cook’s injury. Senior Keith Benjamin, the backup shooting guard, will play more minutes at small forward. And freshman Bradley Wanamaker, who has not played since the Duquesne game Dec. 4, will see more minutes at small forward and shooting guard.

“We lose about 25 minutes a game, so there are 25 minutes available for other guys now,” Dixon said. “Obviously, Keith, Gilbert and Bradley will get those minutes. We interchange those guys a lot. We put a lot of different packages out there. We have a lot of flexibility. I know those guys are looking forward to the opportunity.”

It’s something of a minor upset that Brown gets the starting nod over Senior Guard Keith Benjamin. Dixon’s loyalty to starting seniors has been very noticeable in the past (John DeGroat being the most glaring example). Still, it’s hard to ignore Brown’s higher potential and size. Not to mention sticking with a forward rather than starting a three guard line-up.

Bradley Wanamaker is also likely to return to the rotation and Benjamin is saying the right things.

The injury also lands Benjamin with his biggest role since arriving at Pitt four years ago. Benjamin hasn’t played more than 21 minutes in any game since his sophomore season. Cook’s injury leaves Benjamin and Ramon as the only seniors who play.

“My voice has to be heard a little bit more now,” Benjamin said. “I have to do more things better.”

Wanamaker, who hasn’t played since the Dec. 5 Duquesne game, will switch to shooting guard, where he can show some of the skills that made him a standout Philly high school player, and some small forward.

“It’s not going to be too much of an adjustment for him,” Dixon said.

Shame Darnell Dodson couldn’t qualify academically. He definitely would have gotten some of the freed-up minutes.

Interesting note from Fittipaldo’s Q&A today about Dixon and former AD Jeff Long.

… Let me say this: Dixon is very comfortable now that Steve Pederson is the athletic director again. Pederson and Dixon have a very good relationship. Dixon’s relationship with Jeff Long was strained to the point that they almost never spoke. When Dixon was entertaining offers from Arizona State and Missouri a few years ago, he phoned Pederson, who was the athletic director at Nebraska at the time, for advice. Pederson reminded Dixon that he was in a very good situation at Pitt, and Dixon opted to stay and a sign a long-term extension.

That doesn’t mean Pitt fans don’t have to worry about Dixon leaving now that Pederson is back. The more Pitt wins the more other programs looking for a coach will put the full-court press on for Dixon. It comes with the territory of having a perennial top 25 program.

Here are the Pitt Game Notes (PDF). Dayton hasn’t put theirs out at this time.

First the good, talking about the top freshmen (Insider subs.).

3. LeSean McCoy, Pittsburgh
McCoy gets the nod as the highest-rated true freshman on this list. He also is the leading freshman rusher in the country right now, gaining 118.3 yards per game on the ground. The 19-year-old McCoy spent a post-grad year at Milford Academy, where he rescinded his initial commitment to Miami and turned down offers to Florida and Virginia Tech in favor of Pittsburgh. Quite a catch for coach Dave Wannstedt and his staff. The trick now is to surround McCoy with a better supporting cast.

It doesn’t take much time watching McCoy on film to realize he’s the real deal. He’s an instinctive runner with the burst to turn the corner and the power to push the pile. He also has shown great versatility with 23 catches on the season. Before his days in Pittsburgh are done, McCoy’s name should be mentioned among the school’s other great runners such as Tony Dorsett, Craig Heyward and Curtis Martin.

Then there is this piece from his hometown paper. Talking a bit about the adversity after the Louisville game.

It was a new experience for McCoy. Never in his football life ­— not in high school, not in any game he could think of ­— had he fumbled at such a crucial moment. He had faced adversity before — his McDevitt career ended with an ankle injury in the waning minutes of a game with archrival Harrisburg High — but this fumble was on a national stage.

“I was sick,’’ he said. “I couldn’t move. Couldn’t look at anybody in the face. Couldn’t leave the room.’’ Worse, the game had been televised. “That was the biggest thing — to do that in college, on national TV,’’ he said.

After the game, McCoy didn’t remove his uniform for some time. His despondency lasted for days. “Let’s learn from it. Let’s react the right way,’’ Wannstedt told him.

Others tried to cheer him up. “The best always have bumps in the road,’’ Bostick said. “It’s how you deal with it.’’

Six days later, McCoy showed up at Pitt’s practice facility, a new complex along the Monongahela River built on the site of a demolished steel mill, and his coaches told him, “Don’t worry about it.’’ His mood changed. “Nobody was really worried about it except me,’’ McCoy said. “I just let it go.’’

A common theme for both McCoy and Bostick seems to be how hard they are on themselves and their expectations.

That said, just like there seems to be a bit of open competition for the QB spot,  there seems to be a bit of a threat to McCoy starting and playing time depending on how he takes care of the ball.

Running backs coach David Walker said yesterday that talented freshman LeSean McCoy has to do a better job of securing the football when he runs or he’ll lose playing time. McCoy has fumbled five times in the past six games and the Panthers have lost three of them. Two of the lost fumbles have come at crucial times in close losses over the past three weeks.

…

Walker, who was a standout running back at Syracuse, also doesn’t buy the rationalization that McCoy has fumbled in situations when he was trying to make extra yards. He said the most important thing for any running back is to hold on to the football.

“Maybe it is a little bit of him trying to do too much, but he’ll learn that holding the ball is more important than the extra inch you are trying to get at that particular juncture of the play,” Walker said.

“If we’re trying to make a play and the ball is on the goal line and you are trying to extend the ball, that’s another issue, but if you have the first down and the ball is inside the 25 you just have to know when to say when.”

Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt attempted to soften Walker’s stance a little bit when he was asked about McCoy’s fumbles but agreed that it could become a problem.

I admit, it seems like a stretch considering how offensively challenged Pitt this season, but the message makes sense. Also promising is that the coaches seem to be of the opinion that a little public chastisement is something McCoy can handle and respond well to reading.

Personally, I found myself reading and re-reading this today.

Pitt’s 20-16 loss Saturday to Rutgers was very much like the Panthers’ entire season — they played hard, but in the end they just didn’t make enough plays to come out ahead.

But close losses have become the norm for the Panthers (4-6, 2-3 Big East) under coach Dave Wannstedt as the team easily could be 7-3 had they just made a few plays.

As the story notes, that is the story each season under Wannstedt. Falling just short in a game here and a game there.

McGlynn is correct, the Panthers have had some tough-luck losses, including three games in which they had the ball inside the opponents’ 5 with less than a minute to play and a chance to either tie or win. But the bottom line is good teams find ways to make enough plays to win games, and Pitt has not done that.

That, however, isn’t much different than the previous two seasons under Wannstedt. Pitt needs to find a way to make plays in crucial situations.

I don’t buy into “luck” good or bad as the reason for this. Players, coaches and teams make their own luck. Relying on the other team to make the mistakes is a passive and losing approach. It also leaves no margin for error.

Now, with only a couple games left, the season is now about next year, so maybe, possibly there will be line-up changes. Call me cynical, but Coach Wannstedt has said such things all season but has been very unwilling to do much.

Failing to “get the job done” is a point Wannstedt emphasized Saturday.

That’s the main reason he benched two key players — quarterback Pat Bostick and cornerback Kennard Cox — in the Rutgers game and likely will shake up the lineup for the final two weeks. He also will spend an offseason making some moves with his coaching staff as well as changing some personnel as the pressure to replace “what-ifs” with “wins” next year will be enormous.

Frankly, the only “pressure” on him will be from the ticket office with renewal and sales of season tickets. If the idea of this year was to build to 2008, then it will be a hard sell to all but the die-hards (who likely already have tickets if they live close enough), that there was actually progress. The record — and the scores of the game — sure won’t convince many.

I haven’t given up on Wannstedt as coach of Pitt yet. At the same time, he hasn’t done much to make me believe in what he does with the team. Yes he is recruiting well, but so little has been done with it.

2008 looms larger and larger. 7-5 won’t be acceptable. I’m not saying Big East title, but there has to be more than rhetoric and a bunch of stars next to the recruits. There needs to be tangible evidence that the team is approaching this alleged next level.

If Pitt is playing Rutgers, it must be time for the mentor-pupil stories.

Greg Schiano was a still-green, barely 30-year-old when Dave Wannstedt took a shot on him.

Wannstedt put a whole NFL position group under his charge a year later, and today, if the perpetually time-crunched Schiano happens upon some bonus chat time to call a buddy, “Dave,” the Rutgers coach said, “is one of them.”

Not that any of that means Schiano is going to tell Wannstedt who his starting quarterback will be Saturday.

“Nope,” Schiano affirmed with a wry smile and a promise that friendship won’t trump gamesmanship. Not this week.

Isn’t it interesting that Coach Wannstedt can also recognize young, ambitious coaching talent? Pitt position Coaches that are meeting with general approval include Brian Angelichio (TE) and Aubrey Hill (WR). Think maybe he should consider that approach a little more with the present staff?

As for the starting QB. It is expected that both Mike Teel and Jabu Lovelace will be playing. Teel will likely start, but expect plenty of Lovelace.

While Scarlet Knights starter Mike Teel is a pocket passer who ranks second in the Big East, backup Jabu Lovelace is a rushing threat who has gained more yards this season than any Pitt running back not named LeSean McCoy.

Teel has started every game this season, but pulled himself after the second series against Army last Friday because of a thumb injury. Rutgers coach Greg Schiano was non-committal as to which quarterback will start when Pitt (4-5, 2-2) visits Rutgers (6-4, 2-3) at noon Saturday.

…

Lovelace, a 6-foot-2, 205-pound junior, could pose a more dangerous threat between the two. Consider: The only player to rush for 100 or more yards against the Panthers this season is Navy quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, who had 122 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries.

When Lovelace is playing, Pitt has to fight through blocks to close the extra gap. But, without Teel, Rutgers loses a dimension of its offense in passes to game-breaking receivers Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Britt.

“When a quarterback is carrying the ball in that position, there’s not enough bodies,” Rhoads said. “You can’t put enough people in there, so somebody’s got to get off a block. You’ve got to disrupt something to make a play. When he’s in there, that’s what you’re concerned with. When Teel’s in there, you’re concerned with everything.”

Not enough bodies? When did Pitt start spotting the other team an extra player? That may explain some things.

Schiano, like Wannstedt is a big proponent of speed on defense. Unlike Wannstedt, however, Schiano likes aggressive blitzing schemes. Facing a freshman QB, expect plenty.

The Scarlet Knights under Greg Schiano play a defense that thrives on blitzing and a lot of movement by the linemen. So Bostick will be under fire.

But, in a sense, so will the Panthers as a whole. Pitt (4-5, 2-2) finds itself in a must-win situation if the Panthers want to go to a bowl game.

The Scarlet Knights rank No. 1 in NCAA Division I-A in pass defense (153.2 yards per game) and 13th in pass-efficiency defense (103.9 passer rating against) and average 2.5 sacks per game.

How well Bostick and the offensive line handles the Scarlet Knights’ pressure likely will determine the outcome. Pitt failed that test the past two years with Rutgers amassing 10 sacks and forcing four turnovers against Pitt in those games.

Pitt is of course planning to run the ball a lot. Shocking. Not exactly revealing a secret wrinkle in the offense.

“They are an attacking defense,” Bostick said. “And they do it out of a lot of different looks. It really jumps out how aggressive they are and their willingness to play that aggressively and to do certain things that many other teams aren’t very comfortable with doing.

“Some of the things they do are identifiable, but they give so many different looks and they will blitz from many different looks. We have to be able to get them blocked and then beat their man coverage. That’s not an easy thing to do.”

Bostick said the thing that has impressed him the most about the Scarlet Knights is they seem to play defense without fear and trust their blitz packages.

Rutgers is willing to risk the big play. They are also willing to gamble with blitzes versus runs. Counting on the speed up front to recover in such cases.

Many of you know I’m a big fan of the more advanced numbers and statistics that are starting to permeate basketball. Especially those involving tempo and efficiency. Ken Pomeroy has been a guy I regularly cite and his stuff is often used by me during the season. He and John Gasaway formerly of Big Ten Wonk blog have gone to work for the people who do Baseball Prospectus to produce work stat-driven work in college basketball this season. The geek in me is very excited about this for this year and going forward.
Of course, just two of them trying to cover 340 teams means the previews ran right into the season. They only got to the Big East this week. Interesting to see that Pitt is 10th in the Big East in % of returning minutes — something that speaks to the experience of a team. Marquette, Louisville and G-town are 1, 3 and 5 in that.

As for the look at Pitt. There’s plenty, but here’s a snippet.

As mentioned above, 6’1″ senior Ronald Ramon has functioned as a highly efficient supporting player up to this point. While he turns the ball over a hair more often than you’d like from your spot-up shooter, uncanny accuracy from the floor has more than made up for that. With Gray gone, more possessions will now come Ramon’s way. The test will be how well he can sustain his efficiency while playing a more prominent role in the offense. Also available is Keith Benjamin, a 6’2″ senior.

There’s been talk this year about how a new-look no-Gray Panther team is going to run the floor and increase the tempo. It could happen, sure, but don’t bet the farm just yet. Dixon may let his foot off the brake enough for the pace to creep up a little from last year’s mark of 62 possessions per 40 minutes in-conference. (The were the slowest non-Georgetown team in the Big East.) Even so, this team isn’t going to look like North Carolina or Kansas any time soon.

Pitt this year could have the makings of an interesting test for its coach. The Howland/Dixon preference, doubtless, would be to continue life as an old-school pound-it-down-low kind of team. The makeup of this year’s personnel, however, would seem to suggest that a more perimeter-oriented approach may be in order. Coaches often talk about modifying their styles year-to-year, depending on the players on hand. Dixon will have to decide if this is one of those years.

I think Ramon’s numbers are going to suffer a bit as teams are less likely to play off of him this season.

Pitt, of course, is feeling a bit confident about its ability to play different styles in response to what defenses give them after the weekend.

The Panthers showed off their new transition game against Houston Baptist, which employs full-court pressure defense and a fastbreak offense. The Panthers won, 103-62, the most points scored by a Pitt team since a December 1995 game against Long Island.

The following day against North Carolina A&T, Pitt had to win the game with outside shooting. Aggies coach Jerry Eaves, noticing Pitt shot only 29 percent from 3-point range against Houston Baptist, packed it down against the Panthers’ post players and forced their 3-point shooters to win the game.

The Panthers responded by making 12 of 27 shots from behind the arc and won easily, 88-61.

Then came Saint Louis, which played at a completely different pace. The Billikens gave the Panthers all they could handle for 30 minutes before Pitt finally pulled away. Not only did Dixon get to see his team excel in a low-possession game with a defensive posture, he got to see how they performed in a close game under pressure.

“That’s why the coaches scheduled like this,” point guard Levance Fields said. “[Saint Louis] was a great opponent for this game. We weren’t able to get up and down like we would like, but it was something we knew we’d have to deal with throughout the season. We think we did very well doing it. We didn’t lose our heads or get mad. We knew we wouldn’t be able to get as many points as we did the first two games, so we had to settle down, execute plays better and step it up on defense. And that’s what we did.”

There’s still a lot of work to go on this, but it’s a good start. That could also apply to DeJuan Blair who keeps getting positive pub.

There are those who feel Blair’s combination of skill and toughness are reminiscent of forward Brian Shorter, one of the most ferocious scorers and rebounders in Pitt history. Others believe Blair compares favorably to Charles Smith, the Panthers’ all-time leading scorer and shot blocker.

…

“He’s gotten better each game and he’s continued to improve in every area,” Pitt coach Jamie Dixon said. “On defense, he’s has a way to go but he can score in the paint, he’s bright and he understands things.”

Memphis coach, John Calipari, was on Mike&Mike on ESPN radio this morning. He was being asked about the impact and effect on the game with freshmen players. Specifically his own in Derrick Rose. He made an interesting — and it is was as much about plugging the rest of his players as anything else I know — point about how it is as much about the media fascination. That all the stories after Memphis’ opening week were about Rose despite the outstanding play of players like Douglas-Roberts and Taggart.

There’s a bit of that going on right now with Blair. Young is getting a decent share as well, but there’s a lot going on with the team right now that should be noted. Wanamaker has come in and created 11 assists in only 3 games (and he only played a couple minutes on Sunday) to spelll and compliment Fields. Not to mention 4 steals. Mike Cook is quietly doing a lot of things early with some scoring, a 3-1 A/TO ratio and rebounding.

It will be curious to see how Benjamin actually fits into the rotation as the season progresses. In the faster tempo, attacking style I could actually see him getting minutes at the expense of Ramon.

Definite bemusement by a Duquesne fan looking for optimism.

I love it. A Duquesne fan looking a few games ahead to Pitt. In seasons past this would have been bad form because the Dukes would go out and lose at home to Lafayette or some team like that before Pitt. But now that Ron Everhart actually has some talented players, it’s kind of fun to take a peek ahead to this game.

Haven’t really thought much about it since it doesn’t happen until early December. The Dukes will be better, but not even better than St. Louis at this point.

I freely concede my bias against Defensive Coordinator Paul Rhoads. He has been defensive coordinator for too long and had too many games where he has shown his deficiencies. His defensive schemes, teachings, approach and inability to comprehend any way to defend the spread offense and/or mobile QBs have been consistent through two head coaches. Three games where the defense has played average or better hardly erases that and does not begin to convince me that he has “turned the corner” or had the “light go on.”
What does he have going for him? Players love him and he’s enthusiastic.

“As the season has gone on, I’ve realized, like my dad said, that you never really stop learning,” he said. “One thing I did was make a conscious effort after the Navy game to coach and teach more positive throughout the week, and the team has benefited by that.

“And as a coach, you want to make sure the kids have the right mind-set. I believe that is one thing we’ve done to positively affect their mind-set going into these last three football games.”

Here’s a truth about Paul Rhoads from the years of blogging this team. When things are going bad, you can not locate a quote, comment or interview by the guy about the problems. He just is not to be found. When things are working, though, and he looks even passably competent he’s happy to be quoted and puffed.

So, as the Pitt defense has played reasonably well in the past three games, is it any shock that he’s ready for some attention?

Personally, I saw very little that was impressive in the Syracuse game. The Orange had a 3d stringer and a freshman punt returner trying to run the ball behind a poor O-line. They had a QB play with a cracked rib in the first half and an inexperienced back-up in the second half throw for nearly 200 yards. It still nearly came undone.

Head Coach Dave Wannstedt insists he has no doubt about Rhoads as a coach. Isn’t that great?

The thing that is bothersome is that Rhoads and Wannstedt are happy to insist that it is the coaching that has led to the improvements the past three games. Yet, there was no accountability for last season (or any other). Apparently the Navy game, the UConn or Virginia game weren’t his fault either. Guess that wasn’t the coaching but on the players.

Although the defense has responded for the past three games, Rhoads, who is in his eighth season as the Panthers’ defensive coordinator, still has a legion of critics who think it is time for head coach Dave Wannstedt to find another coordinator.

They cite the Panthers’ struggles on defense in the past few years and last year’s collapse — the team lost its final five games and gave up 1,621 yards of offense and 139 points in the final three — as well as this year’s struggles as evidence his system is not working.

But Wannstedt doesn’t see it that way. He concurs that the defense has played well in the three games since the Navy debacle. He talks about the defense’s lofty rankings in certain categories: The Panthers are 17th in NCAA Division I-A in total defense and 13th in pass defense.

Really, that opening article was just warm-up for spit takes.

And he is puzzled by popular criticism that his defensive schemes and game plans are passive, and that he does not coach an aggressive style of defense. He believes aggressiveness is critical, but frequent blitzing is not the only way to play aggressive defense.

“I believe in aggressiveness and I have always coached aggressiveness,” Rhoads said. “I have never put numbers out there on the table publicly, but I can tell you, if you break down my eight years at Pitt, I can certainly point to a lot higher numbers of games lost that we blitzed more than normal and a lot more games that we won that we blitzed less than normal, but the perception is that wasn’t the case. People seem to think we only blitz in wins, but that’s not at all accurate.

“And aggressive football and attacking football can be played with a four-man rush because those things are based on how well, as I like to say, your players are going north in attacking an offense. And it really has to do with how fast your team plays, and that comes from how confident they are.”

I really feared my head would explode as I read and re-read that. Rhoads hallmark has been the bend-but-don’t-break defense. A read-and-react approach. Don’t give up the big play. In fact, until this season…

Nevertheless, Rhoads is preaching for his linebackers to be more aggressive instead of reading and reacting to plays.

Now why would people think his defensive schemes were passive?

Wait. Let’s start with the last statement in the block quote: “And it really has to do with how fast your team plays, and that comes from how confident they are.”

I would have thought it comes from the player’s ability and how well they are positioned, coached and taught. No. Apparently they just need to have confidence. Self-esteem was the key all along. In the Navy game, they just didn’t feel good about things.
For the record, I don’t care that much about blitzing. It’s an essential component, but it isn’t the end-all, be-all of a defense. I do want to see pressure up front, and blitzing is also a reward for the D-line to really attack. It seems, though, that Rhoads is just indicting his past performance as a DC. The team has tried to blitz, but failed to produce the pressure. They couldn’t generate any pass rush or pressure up front. Not a shock for anyone who has watched this team the past few years, but just a reminder.

Although the Panthers are not blitzing more this season, Rhoads said they made some minor changes to the scheme in the offseason that have paid off. Some of the changes involve mixing up and disguising coverages, but the most important change is that the Panthers have pulled a safety up closer to the line of scrimmage to be more involved in stopping the run — they have gone from a seven-man front to an eight-man front — and it has paid off.

And this is something I have to give credit — to Coach Wannstedt. It’s about the only thing he did right with Paul Rhoads. He took away his duties as the secondary coach and put him on linebackers. It meant that Rhoads was no longer dropping the safety to provide extra support against the pass, but would bring up the safeties to help the linebackers and the D-line more.

This was something that was in the works starting last spring when Rhoads took over the linebackers. Not to mention, once Rhoads had to be responsible for the Linebackers’ performance he did become a lot more interested in making sure the D-line was improving. It also took until this season before Rhoads actually thought that maybe it might help the defense if they worked as an entire defense in some practices and meetings rather than always in individual units.

Again, seven years as a DC, and it took his job being on the line and being responsible for linebackers rather than DBs for Rhoads to see the value of bringing up the safeties against the run.

Playing not to lose. Trying to minimize mistakes. Starting conservative. Whatever you want to call Pitt’s offensive strategy in the first half of games, it isn’t a very effective plan. They are coming out run, run, run and the defense knows it. Not only does it lead to a lot of early 3-and-outs, it hurts field position. Making it harder and harder for the defense to make stops.

That’s the overwhelming theme/meme in the papers.

A reflection of the statistics, however, shows the error of Pitt’s game plan against a Louisville pass defense that ranked last in the Big East and 103rd nationally. The Panthers (3-5, 1-2) appeared to play not to lose in a game they needed to win, a cautious approach that proved costly.

“Part of the mindset was, move the ball and play keep-away a little bit,” Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt said. “Once we got that confidence going in the second half and started adjusting on defense a little better, that was our thinking. We felt if we turned the ball over, we would have no chance. That was our best opportunity.”

The problem with that theory floated by Wannstedt, is that there was nothing from the offense in the first half (or the 3d quarter) which he could legitimately say gave the offense confidence.

Wannstedt is not going to let go of the excuse that he is playing too many freshmen.

“To have two freshmen in a role where one of the two of them is touching the ball basically every play, that doesn’t happen very often,” Wannstedt said. “When you go in that huddle, from a skill-position standpoint, there’s not a whole lot of experience there.”

That didn’t stop the underclassmen from coming through in the fourth quarter, when Pitt came within a yard of tying the score. McCoy rushed for 65 of his game-high 120 yards, and Bostick completed 6 of 10 passes for 118 yards.

“We opened the offense up a little bit, as far as throwing the ball down the field,” McCoy said. “I think they started getting tired, and we started busting them up.”

That’s what makes it so frustrating. He has no choice. He knows it. He has no choice in the 4th quarter when the team is trailing, and good things happen — for a second straight week.

A bigger problem, at least recently, however, has been the Panthers’ reluctance to open up the offense early in the game since consecutive losses to Michigan State and Connecticut earlier this season. In those two games, the Panthers turned the ball over early and that led to easy scores for their opponents.

Since then, coach Dave Wannstedt has said Pitt comes out with conservative game plans in an attempt to avoid early turnovers.

That’s good in theory. The problem is Pitt has not been a good team at coming from behind — it is 1-13 under Wannstedt when trailing at halftime. Pitt and Syracuse are the only Big East teams averaging fewer than 30 points per game, which puts pressure on the defense when trying to win a low-scoring game.

The other thing is, in the losses to Michigan State and Connecticut, the early turnovers were interceptions thrown by redshirt freshman quarterback Kevan Smith. He has since been replaced by freshman Pat Bostick, who has played at a very high level for a true freshman.

Saturday against Louisville, the Panthers tried to be conservative in the first half and would have trailed by 14 at the half had it not been for an interception by Aaron Berry late in the second quarter that set up the Panthers at the Cardinals’ 27. That set up a trick play for the Panthers’ lone first-half score.

And if you take that play out of the equation, the Panthers ran 23 other plays in the first half for 22 yards — less than 1 yard per play. And Bostick threw only eight passes, completed three for 6 yards.

I acknowledge that Bostick didn’t look good for most of the game. He was missing on his throws. A lot. He didn’t look sharp. That said, the team did nothing on the passing game to even try to stretch the field. The pass plays called most of the game were screens (that didn’t work and even Louisville’s defense recognized) and pass plays that did nothing to exploit the weak Louisville pass defense.
That said, you know it’s not changing.  Before the games, he will talk about opening it up a little more. Letting Bostick do more. Bull. You know each and every remaining game, once it starts he will revert to ultra-conservative and predictable. Then after the game — win or likely lose — he’s going to trot out the young players at key positions excuse again.
If I’m a recruit, I have to question Wannstedt at his word when he says that the best players will get on the field. No. It is the players he feels most comfortable with. Coach Wannstedt is clearly — even at this point in the season — extremely uncomfortable with starting and really using true freshmen. McCoy is the exception only because he is a running back and so much further ahead of anything else Pitt has.

I  agree that at some point Coach Wannstedt has to trust Bostick to do more earlier in the game. The reality is I don’t believe it will happen.

As done previously after the game against Virginia, using the play-by-play found here I compiled our first down playcalling and stats into a more visual form to be analyzed. Obviously the win over Cincinnati was in large part due to the way the offense, especially the running game, played. It also looks as though a huge improvement on first downs helped lead to the win.

Against Virginia a few weeks ago, the following happened:

— 58 total yards on first down plays
— 23 first down plays
— 2.5 yard average gain on first down
— 3 three-and-outs and 6 total punts

Not very efficient at all, and it’s really no wonder why we lost the way we did. Saturday’s game against Cincinnati showed that an improvement in those stats increases our shot at winning. The full first-down chart follows…

Note: “—” denotes the drive continued.

Just the length of the chart tells enough. Against Virginia, we moved the ball so much less that the number of first downs was very low. We saw 36 this game compared to 23 in that game. Looking closer, the box in the top right is a good enough summary. We gained almost 200 total yards more on first downs from Virginia to Cinci. Also, and maybe most importantly, is the average gain: 6.78 compared to 2.5. It’s much easier to succeed on 2nd & 4 to go than 2nd & 8.

More words and graphs after the jump.

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