Two days ago the Des Moines Register published an article about Big Ten commish Jim Delany talking about possible expansion from 11 to 12 teams (link via USA Today). Since then it’s been a strong point of discussion on TV, in newspapers, and on blogs.
The expansion talks come with the upcoming release of the Big Ten Network. The network, which is scheduled to launch Aug. 30, could use another big-name university in a large television market to gain more exposure for the network and its sponsors.
So who could be that extra team? Obviously the first team that the conference will give significant attention to will be Notre Dame, but it’s more than likely that ND will quickly turn down the offer. A national TV deal, the ability to schedule whoever they want, and the fact that they can take the Big East’s bowl bids. As long as the Big East is getting a BCS bid then ND will gladly take it. Might as well cross the Irish off of the list of possibilities right now.
Then next tier of possible teams include Syracuse and Rutgers. Syracuse first: they allow the conference’s reach to extend to upstate New York. It’s a decent media market but wouldn’t get the attention of NYC residents. Plus they’re primarily a hoops school and the Big East, while not one of the top two or three football conferences, is one of the best for basketball.
What about Rutgers? They might feel as though if they add Rutgers they will gain a hold on New York City, the #1 US market, but that’s hardly true. Piscataway is over 40 miles from NYC and even after the RU football team has picked up a ton of hype, the NYC market barely notices. NYC is a pro sports town dominated by the Yankees, Mets, Knicks, and both NFL teams — not much room left for a college team, located a half hour away no less, to get attention.
The last tier of possibilities likely includes the following teams: Louisville, Missouri, your Pittsburgh Panthers, and maybe a handful of others. Louisville is a program that as a whole is on the rise…but they’re TV market isn’t all that appealing. It’s no secret that Missouri wants to join the Big Ten and adding them opens up the state of Missouri including possibly St. Louis. But what about Pitt? Well, what are the current B10 members saying about Pitt? One of the best college football bloggers (Brian Cook) on one of the best CFB blogs (MGoBlog) has this to say about the Panthers:
PROs: Geographic and academic fit. Also provides natural rival for Penn State. Football program has rich history; basketball program would be a fine addition.
CONs: Michigan and OSU are already raiding the hell out of the WPIAL. Adding Pitt opens no new recruiting grounds and only marginally raises interest in the Pittsburgh market. Their football fanbase would be amongst the worst in the conference.
Verdict: I guess. I would rather take a chance on Rutgers, personally.
Black Shoe Diaries has this to say…
2. Pitt – This isn’t the smartest choice for the Big Ten, but then this is my wish list. For all the crap I give Pitt around here, I want to see this rivalry played every year. Everyone does. Adding Pitt makes that happen.
But this doesn’t jive with Delany’s wish to expand the market for his new network. If it’s true he has an eye on the New York market, Pitt isn’t going to work.
Basically it comes down to this — the pros vs. the cons. We’re here in Pennsylvania, so we’re close enough for consideration. We have a long traditional rivalry going with PSU. As Brian says, we have a football program with a strong history and I don’t think things are going to be much worse than last season — things can really only go up. Our basketball team has been one of the best in the nation over the last 5 years and it doesn’t look like it’s going backwards any time soon. Pitt is also more than a two sport school. Many of our other sports are doing well, including a women’s hoops team on the rise. We have great facilities for football, basketball, and swimming, and with the planned renovations, the “Olympic sports” will have upgraded facilities as well.
That’s the good stuff…so what about the bad? Firstly, adding us doesn’t exactly open up a whole new market. Whether we like it or not, there’s a large contingent of Penn State folks here in Pittsburgh, so the Big Ten already has a portion of the city’s attention. We’re not in a recruiting area that hasn’t already been tapped into by Big Ten teams like they might get from a team like Missouri.
So what are the actual chances that we’d ever get seriously considered/invited? If I had to guess, I’d say the list looks like so (remember this is not who the B10 WANT, but the chance of it actually HAPPENING):
1. Rutgers
2. Missouri
3. Pitt
MGoBlog has the same three but instead has Pitt at #2 and Mizzou at #3. Black Shoe Diaries has Pitt at #2.
Say next year we do, in fact, have an offer extended to us. What’s our answer? Do we stay put in the Big East or take it? Personally I don’t know what I want us to do. Maybe we’ll just have to wait and cross that bridge when it comes, but the fact that we’re even in the consideration is interesting enough.