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November 12, 2004

Pitt Basketball and the Non-Con (Again)

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 8:14 pm

Yes, I’m returning to a sore subject for me. Why? There was an article from ESPN.com’s “bracketologist” Joe Lunardi talking about scheduling and seeding for the NCAA Tournament (subs. req’d).

Here is what we know:

  • Strength of Schedule (SOS) still comprises 50 percent of the RPI.
  • A school’s conference schedule is essentially out of its control.
  • Each team has roughly 10-12 “electives” through which to build a solid RPI through non-conference scheduling.

    And here is what Fran Fraschilla says every coach needs to know:

  • Play as many games as you can against the Top 150.
  • Play the best teams you can among low- and mid-majors.
  • Never schedule a potentially “bad loss.”
  • Play traditional powers who are “down.”
  • My job in this article is to apply the “known” outcomes of opponent selection to Fran’s “need to know” list in an effort to better understand the RPI/NCAA implications of the scheduling puzzle.

    No. 1: Play as many games as you can against the Top 150

    I would turn this statement around and say, “Play as few games as possible against teams in the bottom half of the RPI.” Proof of this axiom is found in the non-conference SOS numbers of the two teams that drew the most coverage and scrutiny last season: UConn and Saint Joseph’s.

    One of these teams had the top-ranked non-conference schedule in the country and the other carried the anchor of a sub-100 (No. 102) non-conference schedule into Selection Sunday. You may be more than a little surprised at which team had which ranking.

    That’s right, Saint Joseph’s had the No. 1 non-conference schedule in Division I last year (and the fact that the Hawks lost none of those games also gave Jameer Nelson & Co. the No. 1 non-conference RPI). Connecticut’s non-conference slate came in at No. 102, resulting in a significant difference between the Huskies’ overall RPI (No. 5) and their non-conference RPI (No. 26).

    How can that be, you say? Saint Joseph’s only played one ranked team last year (Gonzaga), while UConn had non-conference meetings with Georgia Tech, Utah, Oklahoma and North Carolina? How could the Hawks be No. 1 in this category, much less 100-plus spots above the eventual national champions?

    The answer is in a simpler version of the statement above: “Play as few games as possible against really, really bad teams.” The worst non-conference opponent on Saint Joseph’s schedule was Delaware (No. 130). UConn played nine teams lower than that, more than half of which were at 200 or below.

    So, while the Huskies were able to post a greater number of “name” victories, the Hawks played a far greater number of non-conference games they could actually lose. Non-conference SOS rankings accurately reflect that important (but typically overlooked) reality, and my top guideline-otherwise known as “avoid the slop at all costs”-is the most significant factor in building a bid-friendly non-league profile.

    Got that? It’s not just play some high profile teams (which isn’t a bad thing) it’s avoid playing the absolute dregs. Back when the non-con was announced, I looked at the 2003-04 RPI of Pitt’s opponents. 8 of the 11 non-con games are below 150 in the RPI. Pitt plays so many dregs that the avg. RPI of each team is 184.91. No it isn’t the worst in the Top 25 or even the Big East, but that is hardly something to brag about. It is an embarrassment.





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