As Adam Bisnowaty pointed out, Pitt has won five of the past six against Virginia Tech (although the last loss to the Hokies was in their house in 2013). With Pitt traveling to Hokieland this Saturday, the time is ripe for Pitt to join the conversation for ACC Coastal division contenders. The Hokies are coming off of another loss to East Carolina, will be missing their best player on defense, and has an offense struggling to run the ball. As I mentioned Tuesday, this is a game Pitt must win if the goal is to be Coastal contenders.
But, even a wounded VT squad is dangerous. There’s too much pride on the line for the Hokies to lie down. Let’s look at what Beamerball’s squad has to offer.
Offense:
When Michael Brewer went down against Ohio State, it looked like a death sentence for the Hokies offense. Brendan Motley has surprised many by becoming the best playmaker on offense this season. Motley has good size (6’3 221), a strong arm, and is quite mobile. He’s not afraid to take risks, has a penchant for playmaking, but has struggled with the minutiae of the QB position and misses routine throws. Against ECU he led the team in rushing and was the only consistent threat to move the ball on the ground along with some impressive playmaking with his arm.
When he throws the ball, Motley has a pair of talented WRs and TEs. Sophomore WR Isiah Ford is building off of a good freshman campaign and TE Bucky Hodges is 6’7 looks like he could play on Sundays. Hodges also has two red zone touchdowns already this season, a product of the mismatch his height presents. The other two, WR Cam Phillips and TE Ryan Malleck, have a combined 22 receptions and over 300 yards, so even if the defense manages to shut down Ford and Hodges, these two are more than capable of playmaking.
The Hokies OL has been decent at pass blocking (three sacks allowed in the past three games) but it’s difficult to tell whether the running game is struggling due to the OL or RBs. Statistically, Travon McMillan is their best back, but he only had five of VT’s seventeen RB carries against ECU so the coaches don’t seem to think that’s the case. That means it’ll likely be a RB rotation of McMillan, Trey Edmunds, and JC Coleman.
The offense is not why the Hokies lost to ECU. They put up 28 points, had only one turnover to ECU’s two, more yards, first downs, and won the time of possession battle. The offense wasn’t perfect, but their effort should’ve been enough to ensure the win against a non-P5 school.
When the Hokies have the ball, the offense is going to run through Motley. They’ll line up under center some and try to run the ball, but they’re much more effective when Motley has the threat to keep it. Expect a lot of shotgun snaps and a lot of read options. Motley is great at running the ball so every time it is set up the defense has to respect him. He has the arm, confidence, and talented receivers to test the defense deep.
Worst case scenario is VT gets the ball moving on the ground with those read options. It will pull the defense up to play the run and suddenly the big play is open deep. Pitt has a talented secondary, but that doesn’t mean VT can’t hit a few over the top. Best case is Motley can’t get the ball going on the ground and is forced to play small ball with his arm. Motley does not do well on short and intermediate routes. I’d also expect VT to try some WR and RB screens as those have been effective against Pitt, so there’s an option for the Hokies if all else fails. If I’m Narduzzi/Conklin, I spy Motley consistently, especially on passing downs. This would be a great role for Nic Grigsby to continue the great season he’s had.
Defense:
I’ve tweeted this already and it’s still difficult to say: the Hokies defense is not very good. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Bud Foster, but he seems a bit lost with injuries at CB and MLB. As I noted above CB Kendall Fuller will be out for the rest of the season. This is a huge blow for the Hokies as the secondary has struggled without him. In addition to Fuller, starting MLB Andrew Motuapuaka is banged up and may not play. Due to a targeting suspension for backup Sean Huelskamp, a true freshman will start the first half at MLB if Motuapuaka isn’t ready.
On the bright side for Bud Foster, the DL is still a strength. The football gods have graced us and Dadi Nicholas is out of eligibility after this season. This is bad news for Tom Savage though when Nicholas goes to the NFL next year. Along Nicholas are two fellow seniors in DT Corey Marshall and DT Luther Maddy and junior Ken Ekanem who had 9.5 sacks and 14.5 TFL last season. The sacks haven’t shown up yet this season, but that’s a statistical anomaly in my opinion. They have the talent and experience to wreak havoc on Pitt’s offense.
The matchup to watch will be Tyler Boyd vs. the VT secondary. Without Fuller, things are up in the air. One player who took on a larger role was Greg Stroman, who was targeted and torched by ECU. The other player expected to step up is redshirt freshman Terrell Edmunds. Edmunds will be making his first career start if he gets the nod over Stroman. Needless to say, a CB torched by ECU and a freshman making his first career start will be a matchup Pitt will exploit. Expect Boyd to line up across from these two as often as possible, even in the slot, to keep him isolated on them. The other CB, Brandon Facyson, is not going to see a lot of Boyd unless he follows him around the formation. Even with a potential downpour, Boyd’s route running will get him open on short and intermediate patterns.
One thing ECU did to move the ball was misdirection. They didn’t do anything tricky, just counters and tweaks to force VT’s DL to commit the wrong direction. When ECU ran counters, VT’s LBs struggled to fill the gaps and make tackles with the DL out of position, giving the Pirates a consistent rushing attack. If you can neutralize VT’s DL there, the sky is the limit. While I criticized Chaney for running too many sweeps against Iowa, they could be effective against VT. Inside power runs probably won’t work consistently (without a back of Conner’s caliber that is), so sweeps, zone rushes, and counters may be a better bet.
Worst case scenario is VT’s DL dominates Pitt and completely shuts down the offense. If the OL doesn’t at least get a draw most of the time, it could end up a long day for the offense. Best case the running game gets established and opens up the playbook, weather be damned. If Ollison, James, and Hall consistently move the chains I don’t see how VT wins this game.
Wild Card:
The weather presents a wild card for this game. A flood-level downpour is possible and that’s certainly something that will hinder both teams’ offense. Both Pitt and VT played in rainy weather recently, so that poses no advantage either way. It helps Pitt somewhat in that the rain could keep Lane Stadium quiet, negating some of the Hokies’ home field advantage. If it the rain does hit hard as expected, the score will be low. Expect both sides to play some Beamerball and focus on field position, punting inside the opposing 40 yard line, and overall being conservative. A slick ball can create some crazy plays.
Overall:
I firmly believe Pitt is better than VT. I saw a team with a lot of heart against Iowa and it took a 57 yard FG to take that victory away. If Qadree Ollison and Chris James are finally healthy, the running game should be in good shape against a Hokies defense that’s terrible at defending it, especially at the second level. The key will be for the offense to avoid turnovers. Nate Peterman has thrown three interceptions so far and while the Hokies secondary is questionable, they’re good at forcing turnovers.
I’m going with Pitt 27 VT 17. Boyd has a huge day and the running game gets going and the offense controls the tempo for most of the game.
I like to read through your guys’ input in the comments but i do it less and less as he ruins it for me..
has the sound of a spoiled whining 13 yr old girl with literally every comment on this board
Forget about what we were last year and hope for the best.
The brand new day of Pitt Football starts tomorrow.
Parrish was an excellent blocker for Conner last season and maybe this staff feels that Aston is the better pass protection back.
Iowa to upset Wisky
Freshman offensive lineman Alex Paulina is out for the season with a shoulder injury.
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Moving Poteat to LB happened before any injury and candidly, he looks to slow to be a RB at this point anyway. Without a competent fullback, and Parrish is definitely that, our rb’s will be subject to more concussions as the defenders are running at them with less interference on the way. These are unintended consequences of the no fullback option, but we can see a trend pretty quickly and it needs to change.
There will be a place for Voytik tomorrow as a runner and an option qb. I think his hands may be too small to grip a real wet ball and may struggle throwing. NP will have a solid performance.
Key as we all know is the trenches!!Win the trenches, win the war!
This is where the Steelers lost the game last night. On their last possession they had a 3rd and 2 or 3 and did a slip pass to Bell that was stopped short and then the bad pass to Brown on 4th. If Tomlin could think ahead strategically, he would have known he was going to go for it on 4th down. If so, he runs Bell on third and 4th to pick up the first.
So who made the better move? Nard for punting on 4th and a foot, or Tomlin going for it multiple times on 4th and 1 or 2, not making it and giving up a short field to the eventual winner?
The choice to go for it was correct. The play selection and execution was not not.
Le’Veon was cuttin em up all night… and instead of feeding him, they had 35 year old Mike Vick trying to run 30 yards to the sideline and get the edge on guys that grew up watching him while they were in middle school.
…Or they bring AB across the entire field for a shallow out pattern and ask Vick to throw across his body and hit a tiny window on a bad angle.
Just bad play calling by Haley. It’s like they weren’t prepared for any short yardage situations last night.
How do you know Poteat is slow, maybe true, but I have never seen him play.
As far as I can tell this rash of injuries is pretty much unprecedented at Pitt. Does it have something to do with strength and conditioning, type of practices they are running, or just the Curse of Pitt rearing it’s ugly head again?
Tino played 4 years, took awful hits and many of them and hardly missed a down. Every running back has missed a game except Ollison and he was damaged in camp.
Maybe in inspiring aggressive play from our defense, Narduzzi has allowed them to put our offense in the hospital, just a thought.
Vick was NEVER a good Quarterback, just a GREAT Athlete with a STRONG Arm playing the position.
I do like the fact he ALWAYS gives his ALL and is a NATURAL LEADER. But the Speed is NO LONGER there and OPPOSING TEAMS have shown the last few years they can EASILY come up with ways of causing Vick some angst.
Jones really IMPROVED the more he played in the Pre-Season. At least with him, Haley can go back to running his REGULAR Offense.
Of course, a new Kicker might help.
The Runningback situation is… NOT good.
Believe we might see a SURPRISE addition to the Backfield.
Pitt needs to win the PR battle in its own home town.
Defense still weak, couldn’t hold on even though Flacco had no receivers. Gave up 145 to an average back.
Dan – we are gonna play tough and play to win? 4th and an inch and he punts. Players aren’t hurt or are they? Hiring Chubbs after Bielema fired him? He is lost.
It’s the 4th game of a new staff! Calm down! Try and be positive for once! I have seen more signs of good things to come with this staff than we had in years! Brand new coach who will make more mistakes, like all coaches do! The guy in New England who some say is the best makes play calling blunders all the time!
We’ve got Tech right where we want them! They had a bad loss, and people down here are talking! They aren’t sure Beamer is the man anymore! Their best player is hurt, it’s a rainy day game, it’s all right there for the taking!
Turkeys- 17
Before our 1st game it was “don’t underestimate Pelini and he’s brought half the Nebraska team with him plus they beat us last time”. After the game, “big deal we beat a not so good FCS team”.
Before the Akron game it was the weather that was going to sabotage Pitt, plus their coach has just a great pedigree AND they beat us bad last year, look out! After the game, they have no offense and their QBs can’t tie their own shoes, what a boring win.
We go to Iowa and lose by a last second 57 yard FG in a great game and now undefeated Iowa is a mediocre B1G team. And BTW our new HC is lost!?
Yeah, I think a win would help a few of our more negative fans to slink back into the shadows for a least a week!
Hammer the Hokies!
I think that Steeler game made everyone mad today! Let’s go Pitt!!!!
Game of turnovers tomorrow. Whoever recovers the wet pig the most wins. That said, the trench battle is more key as fumblers are less predictable.
VT 19
Pitt 16
32% chance of rain (improvement from 44% 9 hours ago)
Temperature 51 degrees
16 MPH winds (up from 11 MPH)
My 8am tee time has not been cancelled – no golf carts on the course though.
We need strong performances from our OC, QB’s and RB’s – zero TO’s and we squeak out a win.
HTP!
Yes, we don’t have Conner but I can’t help but feel that this OL just hasn’t the same spring in their step than the last two years did and we did lose two good OL but that happens every season. Last season we gave up 21 sacks (29th nationally) and so far this season we have given up 9 and are on track for 36 at least…. Peterman being back there vice Voytik will mean a few more sacks taken also. If we can’t get the running game churning well enough and get the pass protection by the RBs down then we’ll see the TE’s staying in to block more.
Something to watch for anyway both tomorrow and in the future.
Seen Pitt on the road several times and it’s definitely odd I have not seen one person in Pitt gear yet.
Although we went and seen Black Mass this afternoon(real good flick) and the manager at the theatre said he’s a Pittsburgh native and Pitt fan…
Clemmings was more than just a good OL though, he was one of the best run blockers in college football in 2014.
Conner also made the OL look a little bit better than it was last year. Plenty of times he broke tackles right at the line or a yard or two upfield then rumbled on for 17 more or whatever. He wasn’t getting an open path to murderize LBs on his way to murderizing safeties and cornerbacks all the time.
Sounds a little “Hokie”, pun intended.
The Pitt D will need to bring fire and destruction today to bring home a W. I’m hoping to O can sustain drives today to keep the D rested enough to wreck havoc for four quarters. No let up – show Bud “False Alarm” Foster what D is all about.
HTP!
PSU also offered (Pitt was first) and Franklin was at his game last night … I assume via helicopter since PSU plays today.
QB commit MacVittie (according to Dokish) had another good game at Cincy Moeller in a close loss to another nationally ranked foe — LaSalle. He also is supposed to be both strong-armed and athletic (he played WR last year.)
Remember this is the really detailed media notes on both teams. I always print it out for reference when I’m watching the games on TV. It carries the two-deep and loads of other info.
and the where to watch listings:
Driving east to watch the game with a fellow Blatherite and keeping fingers crossed for a win. I think it will be a close game.
They have to get James going. He is their best RB.
Kind of silly to throw Voytik in the game to run. The D will know what is coming and kill him. He was successful doing last year because the D was keying on Connor.
Judging Narduzzi on three games is idiotic. Come on folks.
Our OL IS a work in progress. Every week this group will mesh a little bit better. Our running game is going to be much more productive today than we saw against the highly ranked run defense of Iowa. My prediction, Pitt’s rushing total exceeds 200 yards today and the Panthers bring home their first conference win of the season.
Will we be able to run often and effectively;
Will VT be able to stop the run w/o packing the box;
If VT stops the run, will NP be able to make them pay;
Can we stop their ground game;
Who wins the TO game, and T of P game.
I think we run well, and NP does well. We win by three. BTW, can we deflate the ball when we are on O, to make it a little easier to pass, and catch?
Updated weather report for game time in Blacksburg:
75% chance of rain (up significantly from last night’s report)
Temperature 48 degrees (slightly cooler)
Wind at 13 MPH (down from 16 last night)
I believe a healthier Pitt team wins by (1) point.
HTP!
It’s too early to even give him credit, but the defense is much more aggressive, tackling and wrapping up much better and hitting a hell of a lot better. Top 5 in the country for sacks.
So, right there is lot’s of walking the walk.
Who’s to say (allthough I disagreed with the decision) that punting at that 4th and 1 wasn’t his walking the walk?? “I’m gonna punt because my defense is bad ass, I believe in these kids and coaches and we’re gonna pin them down, stop them and force them to punt out of their own end zone??”
All I’m saying is 3 games is not enough of a body of work to judge the whole experiment.
Unless there is some obvious crazy flaw, frankly none of us will know about this coach until his 3rd or 4th year, after he gets a couple of years of his own recruiting in.
Sure, we can all say, “he sucks, I knew he was no good”, or “I knew he was great from the get go” or we can have the authoritive “I’m telling you now, I know”,
but the fact is that none of us will know for several more years whether he is Pitt savior or not.
Maybe next time he’s got a 4th and 1 he goes for it??
I’m just not smart enough to tell if a guy is backing up his talk after the third game of the season.
If we’re not in the top 20 in year 3 or 4, then I’ll know.
But I will say that someone deserves at least a little credit for Pitt’s defensive improvement and ranking, probably a combination of Conklin & Narduzzi. Long way to go and looking forward to Narduzzi’s first real year of recruiting, but so far this is a better turnaround than I had hoped for.
I will assume you weren’t around yet for Johnny Majors I. We all KNEW during season 1 that he was successfully making a “Major Change” to Pitt football.
I realize it may not be fair to compare Nard Dog to Majors, my point simply is that it IS possible to “know” much earlier than 3 to 4 years. Let’s Go Pitt!!!
If he builds Pitt into a top 20 team, and Barnes pay him, suddenly Pitt isn’t a stepping stone.
Ya, ya, I know, everyone knows everything.
The problem is the offensive line is significantly inferior to last year and Conner is gone.
The question is, will Peterman make enough of a difference?
Afraid we won’t find out today in a downpour.
I still remember seeing Vick run about 80 yards for a TD at Pitt Stadium. He rolled left and Pitt had everything defended, so he circled back to the right and went down the sideline like a jet…
I’m skeptical of a Pitt win today – biggest concern being Pitt’s ability to control the VTech defensive line. I fear we will be sacked several times and lose a fumble on one of them.
Hope I’m wrong, but I’m guessing VT wins 30 to 20.
Go Pitt.
“talking the talk and not backing it up”
LMAO!!! Amazing. After 3 games?? There’s genius’ in the building!!!