With the Iowa Hawkeyes coming to town, Pitt has a chance to put another nail in the B1G coffin. So far this season the B1G is 1-10 against other Power 5 (PAC-12, SEC, ACC, and Big 12) conferences and there are four more opportunities this weekend to keep the downward trend moving. Headed into the season, Iowa was viewed as a dark horse B1G champ and playoff contender, but early season struggles have put a damper on that. However, this could be the type of game that helps Iowa gain confidence after an ugly loss to rival Iowa State last weekend. If the rest of the B1G continues to suck, Iowa could be the Mountaineer fan with the most teeth and still pull it off.
Other than a rough first quarter against FIU, Pitt has looked like the dark horse many expected Iowa to be. James Conner is pounding the ball straight into Heisman talk, Tyler Boyd is still Tyler Boyd, and the defense has been surprisingly stout albeit susceptible to big plays. While there are two obvious flaws, Voytik’s inconsistency and a secondary allowing big plays, each flaw has a counter-balance that has worked so far. When Voytik struggles the running game steps up. Secondary concerns that lead to big plays are countered by a stout run defense and timely turnovers. While by no means perfect, a good team finds ways to hide flaws and Pitt has done a good job at that thus far.
Those two flaws for Pitt are the keys to this game. Whichever team handles those flaws best will leave Heinz Field victorious on Saturday.
For Iowa, the goal should be to force Chad Voytik’s arm to win the game. This means James Conner must be held in check and Voytik is kept in the pocket. While containing Conner sounds easier said than done, Iowa is far and away the most equipped opponent Pitt has faced to handle it. Iowa is currently 7th in the country in rush defense, allowing only 65.7 yards per game. Iowa’s DL is led by Carl Davis, a DT who will be playing on Sundays next year, and three other upperclassmen. Davis and company will far and away be the biggest challenge the offensive line has faced all season.
On the other hand, Iowa’s secondary showed some glaring issues against Iowa State last week. While the stats weren’t gaudy, Iowa State QB Sam Richardson had his best game of the season with nearly 70% of his passes completed and two touchdowns. If Iowa’s run defense continues to dominate, Voytik will have to take advantage of a subpar Iowa secondary. If Pitt can’t overcome Iowa’s stout run defense and the passing game isn’t making plays, it’ll be an ugly day for the offense.
On defense, the key for Pitt will be to prevent big plays. Of the five touchdowns allowed by the defense while the game was still in contention, four involved a play that gained 30+ yards; three of those were 48+ yards. Iowa has struggled on offense overall, but they do have four 30+ yard plays this season, so the potential is there. Iowa QB Jake Rudock has been mostly conservative with his passes (only 8.975 yards per completion, less than Voytiks 9.793) and is hesitant to throw into coverage. Iowa writers have been quick to point out his penchant for check downs.
Iowa is capable of moving the ball slowly and incrementally (scoring drives of 10, 10, 10, 10, 16, and 17 this season) but has only scored 17 the past two weeks against FBS opponents. If Iowa only scores 17, it’s hard to envision victory for the Hawkeyes. In addition to that, Iowa has not exactly been successful with field goals. Between 20 and 40 yards, Iowa is 1/5 on attempts between two different kickers. Without big plays, Iowa will need to rely on long sustained drives to score and if the Hawkeyes fail to reach the end zone, it’s highly questionable whether points will go up on the board at all.
If Pitt can score 27 points, it’s difficult to envision a scenario without turnovers or special teams miscues where Iowa wins. If Voytik can move the ball through the air (200ish yards and 2 TDs) or James Conner can continue his dominance, Pitt should walk away victorious. Iowa’s best chance at victory is to shut down Pitt’s offense and grind out a win old school style and take advantage of a few big plays allowed by Pitt’s defense.
Prediction: Pitt 24, Iowa 14. Voytik throws for 180 yards and 2 TDs, Conner goes for 90 yards, and Ray Vinopal has a huge day for the defense.
A Good Test for D-Back Coach Troy Douglas and whether he is getting across to his Players.
No reason PITT’s Secondary should not “Play Shutdown” against this Iowa Team. That is SHOULD NOT.
Iowa QB Jack Rudock has just a 6.14 Yards per Attempt. NOT GOOD, but still BETTER than PITT’s QB.
That’s why I got the feeling that IF PITT is to win this one, it could be the Defense more than anything else.
Time to STEP UP!
He’s got it. But you wouldn’t know it by the way he’s been playing.
Problem seems to be a LACK of FOCUS. At times looks totally distracted from the task at hand.
SLOW to READ… and REACT.
I don’t recall seeing Voytik throw on the move much so far in this young season. Can you comment as to whether h did during camp?
Also, we didn’t see the quick hit (lateral pass) to Boyd against FIU. We ran this play a few times in the first two games with success and it seemed to be open against FIU. Just an observation and a play that might get called against Iowa.
I’ll be interested to see if the playbook will be opened up more. To my amateur eye it doesn’t seem like Pitt has a very large playbook, which is fine given how we’ve been running the ball. Maybe what we’ve shown is pretty much what we have. Either way, it will come down to execution and I’m excited to see how it plays out.
Voytik will come to play on Saturday. 180 yds passing accumulates fairly easily with one long pass connection and a pass play or two that goes for a big YAC. It will only take one “need to pass” type game against a suspect secondary such as Iowa has, that will demonstrate that our playbook has a little more in it than has already been shown and that our pass game isn’t as anemic as the stats suggest it is up to this point in the season.
After last week, I have little rational reasoning for the confidence that I have this week, anticipating the Panthers winning this one by two TDs, but that’s my gut feeling on this one. Why, I have no idea.
I want to see 4-0!
Why do think that way? Because you know that the “blue and gold boxers” karma will be at full strength this Saturday. Last week they came out of the clothes hamper and were clearly reduced in effectiveness. This week, they are laundered and ready (i.e., full-strength karma) for the big game against Herky the Hawkeye’s boys.
H2P
Chryst was keeping the offense closed to not put anything on video for anyone too early when all we needed to win was the power game. I think we open up from here on and see the true potential of this offense.
Glad to hear that you’ll be a little more prepared for battle this Saturday. Just one more teaching moment resulting from our first close call of the season. I’d suggest keeping them there freshly laundered boxers under lock and key until needed Saturday morning, I don’t think that we could survive another such egregious error by you again this week against Iowa.
The guys who score the most points win, so why not take the ball and set the tone of the game right from the get go when you win the coin toss? I appreciate that, I think it’s neat.
Getting Maclean playing time is the only thing necessary for him to mature into the star player that I anticipate that he will become.
Go “show me” what you got against Iowa Luke.
Pitt wins if secondary breakdowns are eliminated AND
Chad can successfully throw the ball down field. We are going
to see the Tino defense……that is 8 guys in the box to stop
Connor and force Chad to throw
2011 ISU beat Iowa 44-41
2012 ISU beat Iowa 9-6
2013 Iowa beat ISU 27-21
Hopefully we’ll get the 2012 version of the Troy Douglas defense !
