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March 4, 2014

Simplifying The Loss

Filed under: Basketball — Chas @ 8:34 am

How did Pitt lose last night? One simple chart:

College Basketball Stats

As for why? That’s a different discussion.





Xavier one of the at large teams tentatively seeded below us lost last night.

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 9:31 am

SOS22, I agree, I’m just trying to figure out why he is not listed — I agree with Snacks and you that he should be listed.

Note that Wilson is a 4-star across the board … ESPN, Rivals, Scout and 247.

Comment by wbb 03.07.14 @ 10:10 am

@spirit, calling our non conference schedule soft, is giving an absolute dis-service to the word “soft”.

Comment by Dan 03.07.14 @ 10:12 am

@Spirit Right on about Pompeani and what Pitt needs to do to get in..one win and they are in…though the Clemson win would carry more weight than 1st round tourney win.
As I mentioned before depending on the outcome of conference championships it could be 8 teams below Pitt or 6 or 4.

Comment by milobloom 03.07.14 @ 10:22 am

I was watching Xavier-Nova last night. I have absolutely no idea how Nova is the 6th best team in the country. I’d feel pretty confident in Pitt beating them. That’s what we miss out by not being in the Big East, being able to beat overrated teams like Nova.

Comment by Wardapalooza 03.07.14 @ 10:23 am

@dan, That was half a season ago. We have taken heat from every angle and at every opportunity for that schedule all year long. At what point does one have to say, Screw the schedule is the team worthy of a berth?

I think if one takes a realistic look at who is who and what is what, we are about a 10 seed. If we play a real top team we are going to lose. If we play most top 50 teams we will give them a hell of a game and probably lose. Everyone else we will beat 9 out of 10 times.

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 10:44 am

I have posted here several times that being a high seed could be a blessing. Lunardi’s current bracket peaked my interest as an example. We would be a 10 seed playing UMass a 7. I think we could win that game. The winner would likely play Villanova and I would guess J Wright would rather play UMass. Villanova has had a great year but if they play us it is going to be a old fashioned Big East fistfight going down to the last bucket. Being a 2 seed all the pressure would be on them. We beat them twice last year as I recall. If we would win that our next game would likely be Syracuse. Does anybody here think we can’t beat Syracuse?

This is all just BS as we aren’t even for sure getting in, but sometimes a crappy seed isn’t the end of the world.

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 11:04 am

Oh, I’m off the whether it matters to the tourney, I’m now posting as a season ticket holder!! LOL

Comment by Dan 03.07.14 @ 11:28 am

@dan, From a season ticket holders perspective I is very simple formula. Send them the money, bend over and smile.

The secret to that is the conference games an such an attraction the fans will swallow the abuse.

They keep sucking at home in conference and they will have lots of empty seats like some of the teams we play.

The season ticket holder next to me sold her extra ticket pretty cheap for most conference games.

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 11:36 am

Caller to the fan this morning “Arizon has offered to 31 in the Top 100 recruits…Pitt 3.

He has a point. If you don’t recruit (approach) them, they will not come.

Early line on Clemson game…Clemson -5.5

Comment by Dan 72 03.07.14 @ 11:38 am

Dan 72, Using the callers logic why didn’t Arizona offer all 100?

No one recruits better than Kentucky. At least they look like they will make the tournament this year.

How many of the top 100 did Wichita St. offer?

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 11:57 am

Talking tourney though, if they lose to Clemson and lose the opening round of the ACC tourney, together with the eye test of what I’ve watched and witnessed this year………

I’m not so sure they do deserve a bid??

We’ve really beaten no one.
Lost last 3 games at home.

If we lose to Clemson, we would have lost the last 5 out of 7 of our games.

Obviously, if we lose to Clemson and 1st round ACC, we will have lost 6 out of our last 8 games.

Have not improved as the year has gone one, could easily make an argument we’ve gotten worse.

Die hard Pitt guy as much as anyone, just being objective.

If I’m on the committee and see that, am I really going to press hard to make sure Pitt gets in? “hey, look at Pitt, they have to be in!!”.
Uh, I don’t know about that.

We’re hanging onto being (if we lose to Clemson)
10-8 in the conference, and 4 or 5 games that we coulda, shoulda, woulda won.

Now, if you were to tell me, that there is a bunch of junk from #41 to #68, and their resume is no better than Pitt’s, than maybe I guess you could argue that.

I’m usually up on Bracketology, but this year haven’t followed it as much. (much more interested when we’re doing well).

So, I will defer to you on the teams that are just getting in or on the bubble.

Comment by Dan 03.07.14 @ 12:02 pm

I’m probably also adding in my feeling that we’re probably gonna get hammered by 20 tomorrow, so that is probably swaying me.

I’m usually wrong, so might be a good thing???

Comment by Dan 03.07.14 @ 12:07 pm

Dan, I agree we wouldn’t deserve a bid. The field sucks so bad though we might still make it.

I think we need to beat Clemson and put it to bed. You saw how much the line mattered in the NC St. game. They are no juggernaut and the road hasn’t been a problem for us.

If we can’t beat a team we beat by 33 a month ago with a bid on the line what does it matter. Our boys need to play with some pride.

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 12:11 pm

@Dan, I haven’t been calling them real well lately but I would be strongly inclined to get down pretty heavy getting 5 and a half points. It isn’t like they have some NBA ready line up.

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 12:22 pm

if Pitt doesn’t make the field, I’m a bit disappointed but certainly not surprised or mad.

Yes, we will find another team or two that we feel is less deserving … just like every other team that barely missed out for the past 4 decades!

Steelers once lost a game to the Colts in 1984 on a weird ricochet in the final seconds. And Noll said after the game that they shouldn’t have put themselves in that position in the first place.

Comment by wbb 03.07.14 @ 12:37 pm

@spirit, calling our non conference schedule soft, is giving an absolute dis-service to the word “soft”.
Comment by Dan 03.07.14 @ 10:12 am

Dan, might I suggest the synonym “Flaccid”, not only for the OOC slate but for the recent efforts of our boys in general considering the lack of vitality of the Pitt squad over the last nine games, sounds kind of appropriate to me. Maybe Viagra laced Gatoraid all around in the Pitt locker room pregame tomorrow might be the needed elixer to produce the critical win necessary to end the regular season on an up note?

Comment by Dr. Tom 03.07.14 @ 12:53 pm

here’s your new assistant strength coach ..

link to en.wikipedia.org

Comment by wbb 03.07.14 @ 1:01 pm

No $hit, wbb? Looked on the Panthers webpage, he’s not listed yet. This kid has had a tough row to hoe as of late, dealing with leukemia is no walk in the park for sure. BTW, I see Troy Douglas now has his “official” mug shot in the coaches page now. Is it just me or does this guy appear to be one mean MFer? He looks like he’d like to eat my liver,,,,,raw.

Comment by Dr. Tom 03.07.14 @ 1:13 pm

@spirit, I’m hoping this is one of those games that when I get home from work (till 5, will probably be halftime), that when I turn it on, I’ll be pleasantly surprised that we’re up by 10!!!

Comment by Dan 03.07.14 @ 1:42 pm

Andrew Fitipaldi was on the fan about an hour ago saying he doesn’t have a good feeling about the Pitt game. No shit Andrew, you never say anything supportive of Pitt.

Meanwhile “The Fan” is quoting some abstract Bracketologist nobody ever heard of who has us playing a playin game at an 11 or 12 seed. Meanwhile both Lunardi and Palm (the respected sources) both have us at 10 in brackets updated today. Why is the local radio station going out of there way to paint the picture bleaker than it really is.

I realize Pitt is creating their own mess here, and folks have every right to be skeptical of our credentials and ability to finish. What I don’t get is why people don’t insist that the our local team get a balanced report.

Would somebody please try to get this clown Fitapaldi a job in Syracuse where he likes the team.

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 2:32 pm

He’s horrible. Filiponi, Chris Mueller in the afternoon and Colin Dunlap at night.

All absolutely horrible. They are the typical radio host, that gets stereotyped.

Say things most of the time the opposite the fans, and say inflammatory things to get
calls to the radio station.

I could listen to Starkey, Miller and Gianotta all day. Reasonable, listen to both sides and don’t try to crush or fight with the callers.

The other three, save it for high school kids.

Comment by Dan 03.07.14 @ 2:51 pm

The bracketologist “the Fan” is quoting in their newscast is so abstract I can’t find him on the internet.

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 3:02 pm

ESPN.com Bubble Watch:

Pittsburgh [22-8 (10-7), RPI: 49, SOS: 92] It’s one thing to lose close games to good teams. You can lose to Virginia on a last-second shot, or Syracuse on a 35-foot buzzer beater, and discerning basketball minds can still recognize your team’s inherent quality. But when you fail to win any of the big close opportunities you have, and you have a bad nonconference schedule, and you start mixing in bad home losses to bubble teams, well, why would anyone stand a chance to defend Pitt’s tournament honor? We’re now at the point where Pittsburgh, a putative ACC title contender in the first half of the season, is at serious risk of missing the NCAA tournament. The Panthers were a No. 10 seed in Joe Lunardi’s Thursday bracket projections, which is dangerously close to last-four-byes territory. A loss at Clemson on Saturday would be cause for alarm. An early loss in next week’s ACC tournament could put them at genuine risk of missing the tournament. If that happens, Pitt will have no one to blame but itself.

Comment by Pitt Dad 03.07.14 @ 3:31 pm

Pitt Dad, That is an accurate reflection of where we are. If we lose both we might not get in. If we win either we dance for sure. Doesn’t sound like Mt Everest to me.

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 3:39 pm

What BB and Dixon need are a low seed, low expectations… and then to catch fire and over perform. That alone will help some of the perception around him right now.

For Pitt to pull off one good ‘upset’ game in the NCAA would be nice and give good vibe/energy going into next year.

While not realistic to expect a deep run in the tourney…

… it would be great to be the team that runs the length of the court with 5 seconds left to score the winning basket and upset a top seed.

Comment by Pittscript 03.07.14 @ 3:39 pm

Palm has us playing VCU in Orlando. Lunardi has us playing UMass in Buffalo. Again it ain’t Mt Everest

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 3:44 pm

@sos – I agree – definitely doable

@Pittscript – it would be nice for a change to be the low seeded team that everyone else goes to sleep on for the first few rounds, catches fire and makes a run through 3 games or so

Comment by Pitt Dad 03.07.14 @ 3:46 pm

@sos – as long as this team stays more or less east of the Mississippi I think they’ll be ok. Don’t want a west coast trip.

Comment by Pitt Dad 03.07.14 @ 3:46 pm

Pitt Dad, I think that is very unlikely. I would be more than shocked to see us in the Sweet 16. From the 1st Syracuse game through the Clemson game I thought we had a real shot at a 10 to 15 range team. Since then they have been at the low end the top 40 or worse. Now we need to worry about a continued slide more than expecting a resurrection. I wish it had been different. Losing Johnson didn’t help and Dixon isn’t having a very good year either. I hope Zanna and Patterson do enough to go out with pride.

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 4:01 pm

PG and Trib both say if FSU wins and Pitt loses, Pitt would be a 7 seed in the ACC and FSU 6. Can anyone explain how that could be since Pitt would be 10-8 and FSU 9-9?

Comment by Pitt90 03.07.14 @ 4:08 pm

@Pitt90, This Pitt meltdown prophecy includes FSU beating the struggling Orange. It is a good thing there isn’t 2 games left or they would figure a way that we could be left out of the ACC tourney too.

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 4:16 pm

Those guys on The Fan are terrible…it’s the same problem we see ever year with Pittsburgh Sportcasters…very few of them watch much college hoops outside of the big Pitt games but they all think they are experts in March.

For them it’s just filler waiting for hockey season to start and the NFL Draft…(and this year you could throw in Pirate opener as well.)

The main contributors to this board know way more than they do.

If Pitt does lose on Saturday and misses the tourney then Dixon has to take the good deal of the blame because this team is good enough to be in the tourney.
I am not saying he should be fired (I’m a huge Dixon supporter) however the blame has to be squarely on him.

Comment by milobloom 03.07.14 @ 4:27 pm

waiting for hockey playoffs to start not season

Comment by milobloom 03.07.14 @ 4:28 pm

@Milobloom, I am good with that as long as when they do make it the credit is “squarely on him” too.

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 4:35 pm

@Pitt90 – I’ve seen that too elsewhere but I can’t find an explanation of the seeding. On it’s face it makes no sense.

Comment by Pitt Dad 03.07.14 @ 4:49 pm

Thanks, thought it was just me. The way I read it Pitt can’t finish lower the 6th.

Comment by Pitt90 03.07.14 @ 4:52 pm

FSU is 9-8 and hosts Syracuse Sunday. If Pitt loses to Clemson and FSU beats the Orange FSU wins the tie breaker, and we finish 7th.

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 4:56 pm

Boeheim is playing with yinz. Check pps

Comment by steve1 03.07.14 @ 5:14 pm

@sos22 – why would we be tied with FSU when they would be 9-9 and we would be 10-8?

Comment by Pitt Dad 03.07.14 @ 5:14 pm

They are 9 and 8 if they win they are 10 and 8

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 5:18 pm

duh
thanks

Comment by Pitt Dad 03.07.14 @ 5:22 pm

{hangs head in shame}

Comment by Pitt Dad 03.07.14 @ 5:23 pm

From ESPN.com

“2. The time for bubble teams to win is wearing thin. Which team can’t afford a loss this weekend?

Katz: Pitt. I don’t think the Panthers are as safe as they have been perceived to be of late. If Pitt loses at Clemson, it could give the selection committee even more pause to consider the Panthers as a viable at-large candidate.

Medcalf: Tennessee is in better shape than some of the other bubble teams out there. But nothing is guaranteed. A loss to Missouri on Saturday would affect the Vols’ tourney hopes.

Brown: Missouri. The SEC isn’t littered with opponents that can boost the Tigers’ résumé once the league tournament begins. Their survive-and-advance mantra needs to start with Saturday’s game at Tennessee.”

Comment by Pitt Dad 03.07.14 @ 5:25 pm

Keep your head up ,all we have to do is beat piss ass Clemson and none of it matters. I still say if you can’t beat a team you handled by 33 in a game that matters WTF.

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.07.14 @ 5:27 pm

If we lose to Clemson I’ll blame the Zoo for their closing chant from Pitt’s blowout win over the Tigers.

Comment by MariettaMike 03.07.14 @ 5:33 pm

@sos22 – I was hanging my head in shame for blowing the math. Too much multi-tasking.

I thought Andy Katz liked JD. Not a lot of love in his comment. Not that we deserve any. Just saying.

Comment by Pitt Dad 03.07.14 @ 5:37 pm

Trib Live Radio has Chris Peak from Panther Lair on Thursdays from 2:00 – 3:00.His first subject was Pitt on the bubble…

link to sportstalk.triblive.com

Comment by Jackagain 03.07.14 @ 5:52 pm

About 4 weeks I posted that 23 was the regular season magic number and still feel that way. Pitt doesn’t need to win by 20 or even 10. They need to win however, in my opinion, to make the big tourney.

The ACC tourney only means something to Pitt if we lose to Clempson. If we lose, Pitt will need to win two ACC tournament games to make the dance. The unfortunate part is relying on the automatic conference bids to go as seeded so that an extra team doesn’t make it in. Again, in my opinion, this is where conference management sees a money making opportunity by “letting” a markedly undeserving team to make a run during a conference tourney and be a slayer of the high seed, thus giving an extra spot to the underdog! If it cuts that way, Pitt can only blame themselves for letting one game get away. Pick one, any one.

I like the two options presented and believe we will be fine. Would feel much better if we beat clempson tomorrow. Carpe’ tigers.

Now, I find myself chanting….500, 500, 500! We need more material!

Comment by dhuffdaddy 03.07.14 @ 7:38 pm

In other news, ncaa football is contemplating an early signing period, perhaps as early as September, but more likely, End of November.

Comment by dhuffdaddy 03.07.14 @ 8:38 pm

Dixon is featured on the basketball page at ESPN right now…..title, Bubble Watch of course…

link to espn.go.com

Comment by Jackagain 03.07.14 @ 8:39 pm

When Sheldon got to the Pete this year, he brought his younger brother, Donovan. He is a freshman at Beaver Falls and had a large handful of double-doubles this year, as well a game where he scored 31. This says he is 6’3 but read in PG that he was 6’5.
link to sports.yahoo.com
Could this be the 4th recruit from north of the city in 4 years (S Jeter, Luther and Rowan)

Comment by wbb 03.07.14 @ 9:07 pm

More on Donovan from PG blog

Name: Donovan Jeter
School: Beaver Falls
Grade: 9
Sport: Boys Basketball

Background info: Freshmen aren’t typically counted on heavily by defending WPIAL and PIAA champions, but there is little typical about Donovan Jeter. The younger brother of former BF star Sheldon Jeter, who is sitting out this year at Pitt after transferring from Vanderbilt, started the season slowly but has been coming on strong in the new year. As the Tigers adjust to playing without injured senior star Elijah Cottrill, Jeter has been a bigger and bigger part of Beaver Falls’ game. The 6-foot-5 Jeter has scored in double digits in eight of the games in January, with a high of 31 points against Riverside.

Comment by wbb 03.07.14 @ 9:28 pm

I think Pitt being in the Sweet 16 is more likely then Pitt missing the tournament. Although I could see either happening. Pitt’s first round game will be a toss up, then to get in teh Sweet 16 it will depend on which high seed they get matched up with. At this point it’s better for Pitt to be a 10 or 11 seed than a 8 seed. The only 2 or 3 seed that is really scary is Duke. Pitt would have a shot against the rest. But knowing Pitt, they will win at Clemson, win first two games in ACC and move up to an 8 in the West with Arizona.

Comment by Wardapalooza 03.08.14 @ 6:51 am

The good news is the way everyone is ragging on us we could win today and 2 in the ACC tourney and still be a 10 seed!

Comment by Pittman4ever 03.08.14 @ 8:34 am

He will be the biggest recruit since Blair as to local importance. You are kidding about the NCAA and Pitt right? No question some injuries have taken a toll but this team will find tough sledding today and not sure they have enough now to win a freaken road game.

Comment by chethejet 03.08.14 @ 8:34 am

Without 10 gimme wins this is a 15/15 team praying to get an Nit bid. They have no top 50 wins and don’t deserve to be in the NCAA’s. The sad part about it is they won’t be any better next year. Hopefully some of the future recruits stick with the program. Diallo, Heron and Rowan hold the key to Jamie Dixons future. If they land all three the future is bright if not accept mediocre at best.

Comment by Chick 03.08.14 @ 9:50 am

The last time we played Clemson (the game that fooled us into thinking we were good) everything went right, all shots went in, we got up early and ran them out of town.

Since then, it has been mostly misery. In fact we have lost 6 of our last 10 games and three of the wins went into overtime.

In the second half of our last game we looked absolutely horrible.

I am usually a glass half full guy, but I don’t see how we win today, or make the NCAA’s

I have said all year that this is Patterson’s and Zanna’s team, and it is up to them to get it done.

Unfortunately there may be evidence that they can, but absolutely none that they will.

I hope they prove me wrong, but I fully expect another close loss today.

Comment by gc 03.08.14 @ 10:35 am

If JR is still hurt, I don’t see this as a close game or a Pitt win.

As always, I hope I am wrong

Comment by Dan 72 03.08.14 @ 11:08 am

Don’t look now, but Clemson seems to be MUCH BETTER at REBOUNDING than NC State… and actually a LITTLE BETTER than Pitt.

Going to be VERY INTERESTING to see how well the Players respond given the bit of controversy that erupted over REBOUNDING the last game.

Will say a lot about Jamie’s RELATIONSHIP with this Team and whether they’ve completely tuned him out at this point.

Comment by PittofDreams 03.08.14 @ 11:12 am

I have a better chance in becoming Pitt’s next head coach that this team making the Sweet 16 this year. This team would have to be the first Pitt team ever to beat a higher seed….twice no less. That, and given the fact that the Selection Committee always screws Pitt in the brackets.

These guys can’t even win at the Pete against mediocre teams lately.

This game is shaping up to be the NCAA or NIT? game…

Comment by Jackagain 03.08.14 @ 1:00 pm

Jackagain, Yes, unfortunately that’s what they have riding on this afternoon’s game at Clemson. Too bad, because for 2/3 of the season this was a pretty good Pitt basketball team. The Panthers never seemed to get their mojo back after the 3 tough losses to Virginia, Syracuse, and North Carolina. A lot of easy opportunities were missed in the first half all three of those games and Pitt missed opportunities at the end. Despite that they were competitive and they hung in each game. It would be nice to see some of that tenacity in today’s game.

Comment by Justinian 03.08.14 @ 1:22 pm

Looks like Kansas is about to lose their 9th game….should slip them to #9 in the polls. Names matter ya know…

Comment by Jackagain 03.08.14 @ 1:49 pm

^^8th game.

Comment by Jackagain 03.08.14 @ 1:50 pm

Justinian…yeah, and the Duke game at home took the heart out of them. They found out they’re not as good as they thought they were.

Comment by Jackagain 03.08.14 @ 1:52 pm

Paper says we are favored by 1

Comment by spiritofsection22 03.08.14 @ 2:25 pm

That’s a tough bet either way Spirit…

Comment by Jackagain 03.08.14 @ 2:37 pm

That’s a tough bet either way Spirit…

Comment by Jackagain 03.08.14 @ 2:37 pm

St. John’s just won in OT by 1….bad for Pitt since they’re on the bubble too.

Comment by Jackagain 03.08.14 @ 2:54 pm

Cincy won though which is good for Pitt

Comment by Pitt Dad 03.08.14 @ 3:03 pm

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