If you can’t stand to read the extended remix, you can get an abbreviated summary from the boys at Blue Gray Sky.
Final thoughts and picks at the end of this part.
Jay: Let’s get down to brass tacks, as Grandpa Simpson would say. Chas, Pitt’s strengths in this game? Weaknesses?
Chas: Passing game, obviously. I think the running game will be a pleasant surprise, but not a strength right away. Definitely passing to set up the run. Secondary is a big strength — provided Pitt is more aggressive and plays tighter coverage.
So, QB, TE, WR, Secondary are the clear strengths.
Weaknesses include the D-line. They’ll be better (can’t be much worse) but how much is a big question. Especially going against a well known strength of the Irish. Pitt was horrible against the run and only got 22 sacks for the season.
The O-line is a big question. Can they open holes for the run. I think they’ll be fine for pass protection.
Question marks — more than weakness given the changes — both lines.
Jay: One the biggest matchups when pitt’s on offense is Ambrose Wooden (or whoever’s going to cover) vs Lee. Wooden’s fast, but completely unproven
Chas: Lee is not particularly blazing. He is tall, athletic and makes great adjustments.
Jay: Do they need to run to beat us? Or can Palko just go off?
Chas: You always need to run. Even last year, when Pitt couldn’t crack 100, Kirkley and Murphy had around 25 carries [against ND]. (Correction, they had 20 carries between the two of them. Furman added 3 more carries.)
Jay: And we know Wanny’s penchant for power running.
Pat: What matchups will you be watching closely chas?
Chas: Line play, line play, line play. I’ll be watching how it plays out in the trenches. mostly. Stuff in the secondary is “sexier” but a lot of that has to do with the type of coverage — what kind of position does it put a defender in?
Pat: As for the strengths and weaknesses of Notre Dame…
The strengths will be our O-Line, Brady Quinn, our RB, WR, and TE. Weaknesses right now have to be our secondary. We just don’t know how they’re going to look. 2 new starters.
Chas: Isn’t that a bit of a leap of faith for the WRs to be a strength?
Pat: I don’t think so. Stoval, Rhema, Shelton, and Samardizija are all experienced.
Jay: Well, the talent is there. Good depth.We’re trusting Charlie to bring it out
Pat: I was going to include our passing game as the question mark.
Jay: Good idea. Not because the talent isn’t there, but more we don’t know what to expect exactly.
Pat: So, question marks…passing game (Can we consistently get the ball to our WRs?), our defensive line (How will lack of depth and lack of size in the middle affect us?), and our linebackers (Two new starters, and Crum is only a sophomore).
Chas: Maybe it’s biases on both sides, but considering the coaching and personnel changes it’s hard to be as sure about the weaknesses — at least for that first game when it is all unknown.
Pat: True, but for all the importance ND fans have given to Pitt’s lack of size on the D-line (I know I’ve mentioned it here numerous times), one of our starting tackles is only around 260, with both his backups the same.
So if Wannstedt does try to establish a power game and run right at him, our lack of size in the middle could be an issue.
As for linebacker, Maurice Crum hasn’t played a single minute of college ball, and now he’s a starter, who will have to cover Erik Gill as well as lend run support.
Jay: So, how is Pitt going to win this game, Chas? What do they need to do to win it, I mean?
Chas: Starting on the defense, the secondary has to be big. I have no doubt that Walker will get his yards. The defense has to be aggressive. Do some blitzing and not wait for things. That will have to come from Coach Wannstedt.
Jay: Wanny’s creative. I’m sure we’ll see some interesting coverages & blitzes
Chas: On offense, Pitt will be running. I expect a few 3-and-outs where they almost inexplicably run. Then the passing game will start. I would prefer to see Pitt come out and try and throw deep on the first possession just to really rev up the crowd if nothing else — even on an incomplete – that would get people juiced. The passing game will likely dominate in the 2nd and 3rd qtrs. Only if Pitt’s behind will they still throw more in the 4th.
Jay: Then back to the run in the 4th. Thus fulfilling the maxim, pass to score, run to win.
Chas: Yeah, or at least mixed with more short passes and screens.
How about ND?
Pat: The big thing is going to be how our OL hangles your DL. If we can open up big holes early and really get the running game going, that will be huge. I’m sure Weis would love nothing more than to eat up as much clock as possible and keep Palko/Lee off the field.
Jay: It’s funny, for all the talk about how experienced our OL is — and they’re the most experienced in ND’s history — they’re STILL unproven.
Pat: On defense… I think that stopping the Pitt run game will be the most important. If Jennings and Co. get on track early, that will make the Pitt passing attack even more dangerous. But if they get a head of steam, and start blowing open holes…
I expect Lee to get his yards so trying to shut him out completely is probably a waste of time. Rather, slam the door on the run game and force Cavanaugh to move to the pass before he’s ready. If our DL can keep the running game in check, our linebackers will be free to either blitz or drop back into coverage, which will make the Pitt passing game a bit harder on Palko. Make Palko drive the entire field as much as possible. If Pitt can run early, then they will be pretty hard to stop in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.
On offense, I’d love to see a brand new fancy aerial attack, but I really think that a steady, consistent rushing game is the best way to win against the Panthers.
Jay: If Pitt can stop our running attack, it’s going to be a long day for the Irish.
Pat: Oh, and improved special teams will be important.
Chas: Yeah, special teams, of course.
Pat: Chas, who’s the one Pitt player that you think will make Irish fans go “Where did this guy come from?” We know about Palko, Lee, and Blades. Who is the guy you expect to really have a great game?
Jay: (let me guess: Jennings)
Pat: (me too, but you never know)
Chas: I’ll give you 3 possibilities in order of likelihood:
Rashad Jennings — though how unknown to Irish in the know is now a question.
LaRod Stephens — a pocket rocket at 5’7″ 165 returning kicks.
Corey Davis — Redshirt Freshman Defensive Tackle.
And yours?
Pat: Corey Mays – 5th year senior, starting middle linebacker for the first time. If Pitt wants to start a ground game, it will be his job to stop it.
Jeff Samardzjia – WR, I expect Lay and Reville (sp?) to do a good job on McKnight and Stovall. Jeff is just as good and will get Pitt’s nickel back (not sure who that is) and could be a frequent target
Chinedum Nduwke – The Duke is a very big free safety (6’2″ 219) that has plenty of atheltic ability. I expect (hope?) to see him flying all around Heinz Field and hopefully helping out our corners with Lee.
Jay: We need a friendly wager. Pat was thinking the loser has to put up a picture of the other’s choosing on the blog?
Chas: Sounds fair.
Jay: Could be funny
Chas: Picture goes up on Monday — maximize the viewing pain.
Jay: Monday’s great.
Chas: Excellent. Now final score?
Jay: all right, since we’re the visitors, we’ll go first.
Today the line is 3, O/U is 52.
Seeing as I think ND’s OL will be able to blow the DL off the ball, and open holes for the running game.
And seeing as Palko/Lee/Gill/DelSardo are an experienced bunch, I think it’s going to be a high-scoring affair.
Still, ND will win the possession time battle, and control the ball.
ND wins, 31-24
With neither defense playing all that well.
Okay, your turn
Chas: First game, new coaches, new systems, everyone a little too hyped. Some sloppy play with a bunch of penalties mar the first half.
Pitt, even when they were a pass-oriented offense, still kept time of possession very even or better (check last year’s box score). The run gets results, but it is still in the air.
Still, it is a low scoring game, because neither head coach is a run up the score — more just enough to win.
Pitt wins 23-19
Some final thoughts.
Thanks again, to the guys at BGS for a level-headed discourse. As long as the IMing went, the time actually flew.
An important externality, but unknown is who the officials for the game. They didn’t have that information and neither did I. Still don’t know if it will be a Big East crew or a group from another conference. The way the game is called could be a factor in a close one.
Honestly, I don’t think either side really knows what could happen tomorrow. The teams are surprisingly evenly matched. Different strengths, question marks and weaknesses, but it balances out. Bias, faith, fear and hope were on display from each side. They have faith in their receivers being better, we feel the same about our running game — but it’s all unproven until they play.
I don’t leave for Pittsburgh until tomorrow morning, but I found myself packing the overnight bag already. Yeah, I’m ready to go.
