Since I’ve been analyzing the NFL Draft for 7 or 8 years now, I figured this would be a good time to go over what Pitt seniors can expect. Forewarning, my answers are going to be a bit less optimistic than you’re reading elsewhere. I know I’ve been an optimist on here for a lot of things, so don’t take my opinion as a negative thought on our seniors. This is my realistic opinion as to what will happen.
I’ll start with Ray Graham, the only player with a great chance of getting drafted. A little blunt truth: Ray is not a lock to be drafted. Teams are highly concerned that his knee is not 100%. When an NFL team makes their draft board, they’ll assign a grade and a value to a player. The grading system varies, but value will typically be round and order based. For example, Ray could be the 67th player on a team’s board and a 4th round value. After the value board is made, team doctors will give a player an “undraftable” grade if they can’t trust his health.
Let me give you an example: RB Chris Polk, formerly of the Washington Huskies, now with the Philadelphia Eagles. Polk had a draftable grade in the 4th-5th round for many NFL teams. However, his health history removed him from the Eagles draft board. Yet when Polk went undrafted, the Eagles went after him hard. Why? They get a player with a mid-round draft grade without the investment of a draft pick. If his health doesn’t hold up, they merely lose a little money.
That’s my fear with Ray. If his ACL never gets torn, he’s a 2nd-3rd round RB. With the tear? He may be written off of several draft boards by team doctors. Then what if teams who have him on their board take a different RB? I’m not saying that is what will happen, but it very well could. A team that drafts him in the 3rd-5th round range will be confident that his knee will be fine.
You could see during the season that Ray had lost speed. His agility was back, but he couldn’t dig in and accelerate in the open field. Ray was never a speed demon, but LBs were catching him and with his slow 40 times (4.7ish at the combine, a bit better at pro day) it’s a huge red flag. I think Ray will end up in the 6th round but I’m hoping that I’m wrong, I really do. To show you I’m not alone, Dane Brugler of CBS Sports ranks him as his 29th overall RB. There were only 19 RBs selected in 2012 and 24 in 2011. Dane is taking Graham’s knee into account with that ranking.
Russ Lande of NFL Football Post had this to say:
Returning from a knee injury suffered in 2011, Graham finished his college career on a high note by having the best statistical season in his final season with 1,042 yards, but after running a 4.80 40 at the Combine he is unlikely to be drafted… Instinctive and deceptively quick footed, Graham finds the open hole/crease and gets through it faster than his 40 time would have you expect. His ability to change directions quickly helps him to easily make tacklers miss. While a running back who runs a 4.80 40 is going to have trouble shining in the NFL, if he gets all the way back to his pre-injury form in 2013 (Which will be nearly two years since the injury, which is usually the amount of time a running back needs to get back to 100%) then he could develop into a productive and versatile starting tailback in the NFL.
When you read all of that, you see where I’m coming from. Ray has the potential to start in the NFL. When he is drafted depends on whether or not teams think his knee will come back. When we Pitt fans think of Ray, we see the guy who carried the team on his back under Fraud Graham while the offense worked out the kinks. We see the guy who whipped Manti Te’o like a rented mule. NFL teams see a torn ACL. The NFL is a cruel business and hopefully Ray has kept in contact with Dion Lewis, a player who has seen how cruel the NFL can be. Dion was passed by the aforementioned Chris Polk and Bryce Brown as backups to LeSean McCoy. Dion was traded to the Cleveland Browns and is now with former teammates Jabaal Sheard and Jason Pinkston.
The only other Pitt player with a chance of getting drafted is Mike Shanahan. Mike will not be a WR in the NFL. His only shot is at TE/H-Back. Mike is a talented receiver with a phenomenal work ethic, but you can’t fix slow. He’s simply too slow to be an NFL WR. However, he has the frame to add weight and could easily be 6’4” 255 by training camp. Blocking is 90% effort 10% skill. Mike will give that effort and learn the skill. I saw Mike at the Spring Game and he has clearly put on weight. He’ll have NFL TE size soon.
This is what NFL personnel legend Gil Brandt had to say about Mike:
Mike Shanahan of Pitt will have to switch to tight end in NFL. Mike Shanahan, WR (6-4 1/4, 241) ran the 40 in 4.81 and 4.84 seconds… Shanahan was a wide receiver for the Panthers, but his best shot in the NFL is at the tight end position. Shanahan, [name redacted, rhymes with Beano], and Turnley were not at the combine, and are most likely going to be priority free-agent pickups following the 2013 NFL Draft.
Suffice to say, Shanahan likely won’t hear his name called on Saturday, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. When you go undrafted, you’ll have several teams who are interested in you and you as the player get to choose. You can choose the best situation based off of depth chart, scheme, and coaches. A lot of times it’s better to go undrafted than it is to get drafted in the 7th round. Just ask Henry Hynoski. When he went undrafted he was able to choose the best fit and the result was not only a starting gig, but a Super Bowl ring as well. He went to the best situation for him. If he’s drafted by any other team he may never have had a chance to start.
Unfortunately, those are the only two guys with a shot at hearing their name called. Ryan Turnley has a shot at making a team as a reserve OL but I’m concerned he lacks the upper body strength to play on Sundays. Jarred Holley will get a camp invite but as an undersized safety with only 3 interceptions his last 2 seasons he’ll have a huge hill to climb just to make it past the first cuts. Hubie Graham couldn’t stay healthy this past season and he doesn’t have NFL athleticism. Cam Saddler, the Italian guy who threw the ball for us the past 3 years, and everyone else likely won’t receive a phone call for a camp invite.
That’s my cold hard truth. Here’s the link to my draft preview and please dig through everything we have at ScoutsNotebook. There are team by team previews, mock drafts, and a value board. I’m really hoping to get up to 500 twitter followers by tonight for the 1st round of the draft, so if you haven’t followed me please do.
Needs to be picked by the right team.
I think Shayne Hale is unfortunately one of those tweeners, too slow for linebacker, too small for the line. Worst of all injury prone. He still may get to go to someones camp.
Justin, what’s the word on Mason, is he done at Pitt?
I LOVE my man Shanahan. Us Pitt fans have seen his reliable hands and we know that he plays hard and is dependable as gold for catching it when it counts. Unfortunately, he is not going to be drafted IMO and unless, some team really wants a TE project on their hands, I doubt he ever sees the field in the NFL. It is just not in the cards, since he never played a down in the college game at the TE position. I sincerely hope that I’m wrong on this one though.
I’ve seen enough running backs to know that a healthy Graham is better than the majority of backs eligible for this year’s draft.
Graham showed that with his performance in the East-West Shrine game.
His pass receiving and uncanny ability to get by the first tackler in the open field make him perfect as a situational back in the NFL.
The loss of Chris Rainey would seem to make the Steelers one of the teams who should be quick dialing Graham’s number on Saturday.
Shanahan does not have that kind of potential.
However, do see him catching on and sticking with a team due to the fact that he runs great routes and for all intents and purposes never drops a pass.
I don’t expect Ray Ray to be drafted at all.
However I do think he makes an NFL team as a Free Agent as long as his knee holds up.
I hope he does get drafted as it’s a huge amount of money difference.
Same with Shanahan. Don’t see him getting drafted unless he’s related to Mike Shanahan, the Head Coach. As he’s a project at Tight End, not very fast and drops alot of passes (ask Trey Anderson).
Just not a very good year for Pitt.
Better days Aheads !!!
Some unsuspecting fan base will read his bio on their NFL team page or local rag sheet AND think they’re getting a player, a real sleeper. haha
That’s just the way life works for some !
That’s kinda hard to believe, what with his rocket arm, good size, and pocket presence (especially in the 4th Quarter with games on the line…).
If nothing else, you’d think dude could be a designated pooch punter (except using his arm instead of his leg), judging by the hang time on his deep passes.
The ONLY way Tino the Great gets a sniff of an NFL training camp is by a personal favor stemmig from family connections , or else if the team doesn’t watch his game film (or stops the projector after the 3rd quarters).
The reason Shanahan won’t be a mid-round draft pick is because he’ll need a season on the bench before he can make an impact. WR and TE have a lot of similarities, but it’s still a major position switch. If he goes to the right team who lets him spend a year on the practice squad to work his tail off, he could turn into an NFL starter down the road.
He just needs the right team to show a little patience. That’s why it’s probably better he goes undrafted so he can pick a team that will develop him properly. Who that is I don’t know, but if his agent is worth a damn, Mike and his family do know.