The loss to Stanford in the Sun Bowl could be something of a microcosm for Pitt this year.

The struggles to move the ball to start the game. There was that solid surge in the second and third quarter where Pitt was moving the ball and looked like the more dominant team. Then that fade to black in the fourth quarter. Where the team couldn’t finish and/or couldn’t make the plays.

It’s one of those things. If you look back on Pitt’s 2018 season, just in terms of wins and losses, the Panthers were right around where they were expected to be. Excepting the UNC game, they lost the games you would have expected them to lose. And they won the games you would have expected them to win, other then Syracuse.

It’s the way they lost those games, though. Oh, is it the way they lost those games.

Not simply the blowouts. The inability of the offense to perform. Against PSU, UCF, ND, Miami, Clemson and Stanford. The offense managed only 6 TDs (2 other TDs came on special teams).

There is no way to look back on the 2018 season, and not conclude that the offense is a problem.

The actual problems and the fix? That’s where the debate lies.

The obvious starting point is the Offensive Coordinator. Shawn Watson was a “meh” hire at best when it was announced. His biggest claim to fame was being the OC and QB coach at Louisville with Teddy Bridgewater. Other than that, he had stints as OC at Colorado and Nebraska that were not bad but hardly great.

Watson was and is a pure vanilla OC. He has generally found his work under defensive-minded head coaches who agree with a conservative offensive approach.

There doesn’t seem to be too much debate among the fanbase that Watson should not be retained. From bad playcalling to the complete elimination of the tight end as anything more then an offensive lineman. From only calling for passes that go to the sidelines to having receivers run convoluted routes that take too long to develop. Pick your own favorite thing to hate what Watson does.

Oh, and let’s not forget that Watson is also the QB coach.

With the exception of the running game, Watson doesn’t do anything in the offense to play to the strength of the players or mask the deficiencies.

Speaking of deficiencies, let’s talk a little about the O-line and pass protection. I know, what pass protection?

I realize run blocking and pass protection require two very different approaches for offensive linemen. There’s the need to hold the block longer; the requirement to stand your ground more then just push forward.

That said, holy shit was this unit bad at pass protection. I don’t recall ever seeing an O-line that could be so good at run blocking; but so incapable of handling pass protection. Not only was the quarterback under constant pressure when dropping back; but that inability to prevent D-lines from pushing through, likely played a significant part in not allowing Kenny Pickett to step forward and throw to the middle of the field. It’s hard to do that when you are striding right into the rush.

I can’t even put it all on new OL Coach Dave Borbely, as pass protection was an issue last year as well. The single dimension of Pitt’s offense has been heavily influenced by what the O-line can do.

This seems to fall under the heading of recruiting and more the area that the head coach needed to address. The O-line has seen its talent decline steadily over the last two years as the guys that Paul Chryst recruited have graduated.

Consider what this O-line would have been like if Stefano Millin hadn’t been available as a grad transfer. Then think about the fact that Millin, Alex Bookser, Mike Herndon and Connor Dintino are all seniors. Next year, if Jimmy Morrissey isn’t healed and ready by the start of the season, the entire O-line will be new.

I have no idea about the O-line for 2019, but it is hard to be optimistic.

Then there is the evaluation and development of wide receivers. Along with the tight ends, the attrition at WR has been something. A lot of potential, but a lot of misses on evaluations at this spot.

Pitt was very lucky that Indiana transfer, Taysir Mack, was given immediate eligibility. He was Pitt’s leading receiver for the year and that came even with missing 3.5 games due to an injury. Maurice Ffrench’s emergence was a good thing. After that, though, there were problems.

Tre Tipton and Aaron Mathews have never become consistent or reliable targets. Injuries have played a role in that, but it has been disappointing to not see more from either.

Rafael Araujo-Lopes and Shocky Jacques-Louis were not utilized as much as expected. Araujo-Lopes, especially considering hie emergence last year. This, likely goes to the schemes and routes they have to run. Both are smaller wide receivers playing in the slot and expected to make catches over the middle. But if you aren’t throwing the ball over the middle too much…

That brings us to the quarterback. The most polarizing point of the offense. Kenny Pickett.

I’m sure you have thoughts. So do I.

After the Miami game last year, he definitely got overhyped. The fans, desperate to believe that Pitt finally had the dynamic QB who could run and pass were ready and willing. The coaching staff, for whatever reason, fed that belief.

From the reports of how great Pickett looked in practice. To the lack of interceptions. To trumpeting his leadership, competitiveness, etc. Not to say they weren’t true. Or at least holding truthiness. But they set  a very high bar for a kid who had one start and appeared in only two other games.

Then the season happened and Pickett looked very much like a young QB learning on the job. He missed throws. He didn’t make the right reads consistently. There were parts where he stayed in the pocket too long and others where he just took off too soon.

His passing numbers are amazingly low for a QB at this time. Under 2000 yards for the year. I know Pitt was heavily imbalanced on run to pass, but for a QB who took all but a handful of snaps. In 2018. That’s horrid. Again, a lot of the fault rests with the playcalling and the OC; but Pickett finished the season with a completion rate under 60%.

Personally, I still think he can be a very good QB for Pitt. But the concern I have is the scarring from a season like this.

I always go back to that Rutgers team in the late aughts. It’s an extreme example.

When Tom Savage was tossed out there right away. His first season was very promising, but he was taking a lot of hits and under a lot of pressure due to his O-line. It took a toll on him as the second year saw him not just struggle but steadily degrade. So concerned with the pressure and the hits. He got injured and a new freshman QB (Chas Dodd) took over and looked dynamite the rest of the way. Savage lost his job and transferred. But back at Rutgers the hits on Dodd started adding up in his second year. He became as gun shy and skittish as Savage had been. Eventually Dodd lost the gig as well. I believe to Gary Nova.

A bad O-line can destroy any QB in the college game over time. They are still kids. They are still learning at that point.

Honestly, more then anything else, that will be my big question about Pickett for the offseason. Everything else can improve. He can get more accurate. His footwork will improve. He will get better on his reads in the filmroom and with all the reps he’s’ had. But his psyche? That’s the big unknown.

I very much doubt that Narduzzi wants to make a change at OC. At the same time, I don’t think he has much of a choice. This was a season that teetered on the brink of complete disaster halfway through.

The defense improved throughout the season. The offense simply leaned on the run to absurd lengths which worked for a while. But in college football — hell, these days, football in general — you have to be able to throw the ball.

I guess I am hoping for a little symmetry. Ten years ago, Pitt went to the Sun Bowl. The QB had a bomb of a game and Pitt couldn’t generate enough offense against a Pac-12 (10 at the time) that was missing their top running back and had other injuries. The complete offensive ineptitude forced the defensive-minded coach to make a change at OC. Let’s find out if history repeats.