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November 15, 2016

Sorting Through Small Sample Size

Filed under: Basketball — Chas @ 8:23 am

Two games into the basketball season and Pitt is 2-0. A not completely surprising, but still disappointing tough win over Eastern Michigan and a relatively easy win over Gardner-Webb

In terms of the raw numbers, Pitt is as expected. KenPom ranks them at 52d nationally based on their Adjusted Efficiency Margin (Offensive efficiency – Defensive efficiency). On the offensive side, they are 23d nationally and defensively down at 81st. Their tempo at this point is 181st nationally — right around average.

As much as those numbers are relatively meaningless given only two games and the quality of opponent, the defensive numbers are a bit disturbing — though not surprising for anyone who has seen this team for the last couple of years.

Anyone who has watched this Pitt team knows, it is not one that likes to play defense. Coach Kevin Stallings was disturbed by the lack of effort on defense in last night’s game.

“With all due respect to Gardner-Webb, I thought we missed an opportunity to get better tonight,” an emotional Stallings said after the 99-80 victory in the 2K Classic benefiting Wounded Warrior Project at the Petersen Events Center his second game at the Panthers’ helm.

“I was disappointed in our intensity, concentration and our focus,” he said. “While we do some really nice things offensively in terms of moving the ball, I think if you look at our defensive numbers and our turnover numbers and our foul shot numbers, that’s kind of indicative of a team that’s not wired in to play. That’s my fault.”

Stallings’ displeasure and disappointment revealed itself early when he pulled all five starters off the floor before eight minutes had elapsed with Pitt clinging to a 12-10 lead amid a flurry of turnovers. This was against a team from a low-major conference (Big South) that lost its opener to SMU on Friday by 28 points.

Frustratingly, to me, it starts with the upper-classmen. As talented and skilled as they are on offense (I’m pretty sure I have been typing variations of this sentence and graph for the fourth straight year), Jamel Artis and Mike Young do not show any desire to work on the defensive side of the ball. They will talk about it, say the right things, know what they should do. But more often than not, you can see that they don’t want to be doing it.

In a game that was never really in doubt, Young only played 15 minutes and Artis 21. They both racked up double-digit scoring, but neither seemed engaged. With Young, that was especially disturbing since he didn’t even get to start because of what was termed “a minor team rules infraction.”

Sheldon Jeter is a little different on defense to me. He wants to play defense, but just isn’t good at it. His tendency to overplay the ball constantly gets him out of position.

I think that struggle to see decent defense on the inside manifested itself, not simply in Stallings criticisms in the post game. But in Corey Manigault making his debut last night. Manigault makes it more likely that Pitt is going to use 10 players (if not 11) in the rotation rather than limiting it to 9 — at least until conference play. Manigault, like Ryan Luther, brought a lot more energy to the defensive side of the ball.

The other thing Manigault showed he can do is seal off his defender inside. A vital trait that has been lacking inside the last two years. If we want to see Pitt attack the hoop with the guards and small forwards more, the lanes have to be open. Not simply getting past the perimeter defender is enough. There can’t be a secondary defender waiting in the paint.

On offense, Pitt looked a lot better. Which may have been helped by a lower-quality opponent and not facing a zone.

Another thing that helped the offense look crisper: making threes. Pitt still appears to be a feast or famine team on the perimeter. Against Eastern Michigan, Pitt was 8-33 from outside. Last night, 13-26.





Yeah, unfortunately, while in most years it seems “too soon to tell” how good Pitt is going to be before conference play, I think it is all too clear right now that the odds are a losing record in the ACC. Lets face it…if Dixon could not get this team to play defense, no one will. They cannot stop penetration and have no inside presence…a deadly combination. It was actually nice to see Nix in there, instantly G-W could no longer drive the ball. But he surely won’t be playing in Conference games I would think.

The offense to me looks a lot like Dixon’s…again probably because this is the same cast of characters we are used to…pass around the perimeter, never drive, and settle for an open jump shot. Not terrible but the jumps shots go cold sooner or later.

In the end, we won’t know what Stallings is capable of for at least 3 years. Dare I say, these players seem uncoachable…they are who they are. And likely this will be Stalling’s best team for at least 2, maybe 3 years…Dixon left him almost nothing.

Comment by DD 11.15.16 @ 8:45 am

Oh and another thing. We always have benefited from a player or two making a big jump over the summer. Word on the street was Jones did. And Cam and Luther possibly too.

I see no evidence whatsoever for anyone having made a significant jump. Cam having a nice year so far but it is all 3 pointers, and the defense is so-so. This whole “Jones is a different player” seems utter crap.

If anything I would say Jeter looks to be the only one to have improved a bit.

Comment by DD 11.15.16 @ 8:53 am

Dixon left Pitt a team that made the NCAA tourney & only lost Robinson. If Stallings can’t get them back to the tourney then that’s on him.

Comment by Nick 11.15.16 @ 9:44 am

Good to see a lot of guys play a lot of minutes.

Comment by gc 11.15.16 @ 10:07 am

Nick+1

Comment by gc 11.15.16 @ 10:07 am

Without a ACC point guard the ceiling is limited.

Comment by alcofan 11.15.16 @ 10:52 am

Disappointed in Wilson not seizing his opportunity. Looks like Kithcart has passed him by.

Comment by gc 11.15.16 @ 10:58 am

There are differences from the Dixon offense, especially how they try to spread out the D more and move the ball faster.

Stallings needs to encourage Kithcart to drive the lane more and dish. The kid could do it all night long.

Corey Manigault needs to play now and play often. No redshirting him, they will need him to have experience next year.

Even the Gardner-Webb coach said Pitt, compared to SMU, was easier to drive on, easier to get the ball in the paint.

Comment by notrocketscience 11.15.16 @ 11:05 am

Stallings alluded to the crowd affecting the upper classmen last night and was not pleased about it. Zeis article the other day was on point. Stallings and Barnes have to find a way to get the city, let alone Pitt, excited again about basketball. It starts with winning and good basketball but you also need stars and name recognition.

Comment by Tossing Thabeets 11.15.16 @ 11:10 am

@@@@@@@@

Pgh fans like tough minded D teams….remember those days? This team doesn’t resemble those teams in
any way. Too early to tell. This weekend will tell us a lot. If getting burned by Gardner Webb guards the ACC guards
will have a field day. Assert your self coach!

Comment by JR 11.15.16 @ 12:24 pm

I missed most of last night’s game unfortunately, but it is encouraging to hear that Manigault is committing to D, that bodes well for his development. Those that are unwilling to expend the energy to play D, should play fewer and fewer minutes, in my opinion, regardless of who they are (and we know who they are).

With regard to offense, I think one of our major obstacles against better competition will be our inability to penetrate and collapse opposing defenses, which will make us relatively easy to defend. We either need a player who can penetrate (a PG), or we need to pass the ball inside and kick out a lot more, but we are challenged by 2 things: (1) we still do not have a center so it makes it harder to pass the ball in deep, and (2) when Kithcart is not in, we do not have a point guard which limits our ball penetration; even when Kithcart is in the game, I’ve not seen him attempt to penetrate and I am not sure why.

Comment by 1618mt 11.15.16 @ 2:05 pm

@Chas I am 100% in agreement WRT your defensive assessments of Artis, Young and Jeter. It is interesting how Artis and Young have talked a good D game since early last year when they were generally acknowledged as team leaders along with JR. Their play has consistently demonstrated otherwise.

@TT Spot on regarding attendance.

In observing commentary on the first two games I find it interesting that the consistent complaints under the Stallings regime focus on defense rather than offense as they did under Dixon.

Comment by Barvo 11.15.16 @ 2:17 pm

Pitt (and Pitt hoop fans) never really made the transition from the old Big East to the new ACC. Pitt rose to prominence in the old big east, their “hard nosed” identity and style fit perfectly in that league. It also fit the way Jamie liked to coach and recruit. Then two things happened, the ACC came calling and the NCAA changed some of the rules emphasis with the refs to “clean up” the middle. Even Jamie realized that the old style was going to need to be tweaked. He started to recruit “stretch fours” who could step out and hit threes and some quicker guards. Young. Artis, Luther, Newkirk and Kithcart were all recruited with this new reality in mind. Jamie still emphasized, defense, rebounding and deliberate offense, but he was doing it with slightly different kinds of players. He was fairly successful with it last year’ but not enough to match what he did, the way he did it back in the old big east days. And even though the Duke’s and UNC’s are fun, they don’t have the same rivalry with us as the UConn’s, Georgetowns did.

Stallings may be the right guy to finish the transition, but it’s going to take some time and he’s going to need to win bigger than they did last year. Unfortunately, this year may be the most talented team he’s going to have for a few years.

Comment by Boubacar Aw 11.15.16 @ 2:36 pm

Not everyone is a rah rah get the team amped up kind of player. That’s fine. But I always felt at times Young and Artis just seem disinterested. I thought maybe it was they had just tuned Dixon out, maybe not I guess.

Thursday will be the 1st chance I have to sit and watch a game from start to finish. From what I’ve seen and read so far, not expecting much this season and as Boubacar said this may be the most talented team Stallings has for a few years. It will definitely be the most experienced.

Comment by Pap76 11.15.16 @ 2:55 pm

This team is very good at playing one type of defense.

And they have for several years now.

And that is Matador Defense.

Comment by Emel 11.15.16 @ 3:04 pm

No inside presence or very little of it.

I know it was late in the game, etc. etc. But I liked what I saw out of the Human Aircraft Carrier.

Rosie Nix, the kid was putting out at 110%, had a wicked shot block and like 4 rebounds. Clogged the middle as well, and cause several altered shots.

Would like to see him in there with the starters.

Comment by Emel 11.15.16 @ 3:07 pm

Agree with Emel…Nix actually looked athletic. I think he looked winded after play went up and down a few times in quick transition…but hell, he never fell behind! And he was quick and athletic…at least, compared to my expectations of what he would be! He not only blocked a shot but successfully defended at least 4 drives to the paint. I hope he is given a fair chance…certainly he might not make the cut as competition gets bigger, faster, and more talented…but you could see how he completely changed how we played.

Comment by DD 11.15.16 @ 3:59 pm

I would also respectfully disagree with the assessment that we had to change to fit the ACC. I mean, look at what Virginia has done. Dixon’s big mistake was to try and change. He should have stayed with the strategy that got Pitt to the top 10 in the first place: you know you cant get the McD’s all Americans, so focus on picking the toughest, best defenders from the second or even 3rd tier. It is amazing what one can do with a good defending center (Gray, McGhee), and a tough driving PG (Fields, etc) and one good wing shooter.

Comment by DD 11.15.16 @ 4:02 pm

Can someone tell me why Nix could not play 4 or 5 minutes per game?

Comment by HbgFrank 11.15.16 @ 4:21 pm

He runs the floor OK and is a definite drive buster in the middle

Comment by HbgFrank 11.15.16 @ 4:22 pm

They might not have HAD to change. It might have been the realization that Pitt wasn’t getting the tougher NYC and Philly kids anymore, without the big east. That could have been due to Slice leaving too or a cold analysis of the realities of the new league. They thought they could get more Baltimore and DC kids. Then they thought maybe they could get OH and Michigan players.

And it was less Jamie changing his style and more the kinds of players he brought in, whether by choice or by happenstance.

Comment by Boubacar Aw 11.15.16 @ 4:35 pm

Yeah good point Boubacar…I think also it was pressure…spending too many years being a bridesmaid and never a bride got to Dixon…failing to crack the final 4, or 8 in most cases. He might have felt he needed to try and do something different to get to the promised land.

Comment by DD 11.15.16 @ 4:45 pm

Chas.. wrong thread, I apologize…

Gonna be 70° on Friday and get ugly Saturday. It’s November guys. It’s not always pleasant. Football team coming off a huge win. Stick your excuses up your ass. If weather is what holds you back, you’re not a fan. Please if it’s logistically possible, be there Saturday. After that win Saturday, this team deserves a good and vocal crowd Saturday…

Comment by Pap76 11.15.16 @ 5:23 pm

Newsflash….Jamie’s gone and isn’t coming back. This is like reading a pedo board that’s talking about what JoePa should be doing…

Stallings is going to have about 3 less cupcake games on the schedule every year than Jamie, so getting to the Tournament with 20+ wins is going to be even tougher.

Stallings though has got to get his players to buy in the was Narduzzi is doing it with his guys or they will fall short this year too. He better start doing a better job of recruiting too….but 4-6K at the Pete isn’t doing him any favors either.

Comment by Jackagain 11.15.16 @ 5:44 pm

Pap76 – I’ll be there, rain or shine. James “the beast” Conner has a great chance to break the ACC career TD mark.

Wouldn’t miss it for anything (I think)…

Comment by Erie Express 11.15.16 @ 6:00 pm

The Virginia playing the way Pitt use to play is an excellent comparison.

They aren’t exactly doing it with a roster of 4 or 5 star recruits.

Bennett has their kids playing hard 100% of the time, which is what Howland and Dixon (until about 2012 or so) had Pitt kids playing at. Virginia like Pitt use to be, OUTWORKED the 5 star laden teams.
A lot of it was rebounding, as Pitt use to control BOTH backboards, and excelled at Offensive Rebounding.

For whatever reason, other than just the passage of time, we stopped outworking other teams and took for granted some of the lesser teams, that started outworking us and beating us.

When the few 5 stars kids we got didn’t work out, like Birch specifically and Sleepy never blossomed, that seemed to be the apex of the program.

You’ve got to strike while the iron is hot, the Pete and the Program was HOT, almost White HOT for about a decade. We as we all know never got over that Hump and now the Iron is quite cooler.

Stallings might work out, who knows. But the whole thing was handled so poorly by Pitt, it killed whatever buzz that’s associated with a new Head Coach. The media was also partly responsible by suggesting names like Sean Miller might be coming.

And we all know the local media’s feeling towards Pitt athletics, so they did their best, to build our expectations to a crescendo and then have the bubble burst with the hiring of a middle aged guy who seems the anti-thesis of what the media was suggesting Pitt was after.

Comment by Emel 11.15.16 @ 8:06 pm

Dixon bashers are the ones who keep bringing him up. Unruffle your panties & we’ll all move on.

Comment by Nick 11.15.16 @ 8:43 pm

UVA has 4 top 50 players in their starting lineup and the 2016 class was #8 in the country. Pitt recruited gritty winners from tough cities. UVA recruits height, length and athleticism. They are defense focused but way better athletes than Dixon ever recruited.

Comment by Tossing Thabeets 11.15.16 @ 9:06 pm

Well I wasn’t talking about UVA’s 2016 class.

He had a couple .500 seasons similar to Howland’s first two and then the program took off.

He might be getting better players now, but he wasn’t before.

Bennett has already been in Hootersville 8 years.

Comment by Emel 11.15.16 @ 10:17 pm

Back to FB for a second – Retro Saturday in Pitt Stadium at Heinz Field –

link to mobile.twitter.com

Another reason amongst many to come see the Pitt Panthers entertain their fans at 3pm vs the Duke Blue Devils. The start time is perfect for a fun afternoon to tailgate with friends and support the team.

See you all at the ketchup bottle for some Canadian, I mean college FB.

A little rain NEVER hurt anyone. Now lightning or a hurricane, that is a losing proposition.

Comment by Erie Express 11.16.16 @ 5:32 am

Nix is not athletic due to his injuries. He can’t move laterally. He isn’t playing man D that’s for sure.
Play him few minutes against a top team, see what he can do.

Comment by notrocketscience 11.16.16 @ 6:56 am

If not this year, by next year TCU will have a better record. Who recruited better? TCU got higher rated recruits. Pitt pursued more recruits, but signed 3 star players or below. Ironic for a coach who couldn’t TCU looks better in recruiting. Now Pitt’s cupboard is supposedly bare, but Jamie took them to NCAA. Stallings is not a bad coach but he needs a big man. Maybe the big kid from Peru he is still recuiting will sign and make a diff, but he will need time to develop. Without a serious big man this year of defense-less will seem like glory years. In three years Stallings will recruit or be gone. Remember this there was not a long line of quality coaches seeking the Pitt job, so we better root for Stallings.

Comment by AkDave 11.16.16 @ 9:08 am

Sad that our seniors had to play 4 years without a decent big man. Young, a very good power forward has played the 5 most of the time for the last three years.

So far it appears that Stallings is having the same difficulties recruiting a big man and forwards.

Next year could be a disaster.

Comment by gc 11.16.16 @ 9:54 am

Doesn’t matter who Dixon recruited at TCU, he didn’t do shit at Pitt since the Young, Artis class.

Comment by notrocketscience 11.16.16 @ 11:20 am

If you don’t have a big man then you have to play differently. Young is going to have the opponent’s 5 guarding him, besides being able to shoot from the outside, Young should be able to take a bigger slower 5 off the dribble.

It’s all about creating matchup advantages and then exploiting those matchups.

I would think Sheldon Jeter would create matchup problems as well, and we saw some of that last year, when he blew up in a game.

Comment by Emel 11.16.16 @ 2:28 pm

TCU’s schedule will be loaded with cupcakes as long as Dixon is there and they play in a lousy conference…..so maybe they will have a better record.

BTW…Dixon has needed a big man since Adams decided he’d seen enough around here.

Comment by Jackagain 11.16.16 @ 9:09 pm

@Jackagain–which do you prefer–

A tougher OOC schedule and no NCAA bid as a result or a more reasonable OOC and an NCAA bid?

IMHO, a team that doesn’t smell the NCAAs will play in a mostly empty Pete even against quality OOC and ACC opponents. Attendance will be lower even if the style of play is “exciting.” Burghers only support winners. Style of play is a distant to non existent secondary consideration. Too spoiled by Steeler and Penguin (and past Pitt) success.

Comment by pitt1972 11.17.16 @ 12:14 pm

I prefer a tougher OOC schedule with the Pete packed and an NCAA bid. Why do you suppose they are mutually exclusive?

I don’t want a coach padding his win total like Dixon & JoePa. This does not prepare kids to play well in March. Dixon is proof of that.

And Kids don’t like playing Div 3 teams at home.

Comment by Jackagain 11.17.16 @ 5:01 pm

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