No pressure, but this is the most important game any player on this roster has ever been in. It’s unquestionably the biggest game since for Pitt the 2010 Backyard Brawl. It may be even bigger than that. If Pitt wins, Narduzzi and company are in the driver’s seat for the ACC Coastal. Lose and Pitt will need a lot of help. If the goal is to be a nationally relevant program, these are the games you have to win.

UNC comes to town with similar pressure. Both teams were 6-6 last year and thanks to some coaching changes (UNC added DC Gene Chizik) have taken an obvious step forward. Like Pitt, a win for the Tarheels will put them in the driver’s seat for the ACC Coastal.

How $%&@ing awesome is it to have a nationally televised game with huge implications on the line in late October? Let’s take a look at what UNC brings to the table.

Offense:

North Carolina will be the best offense Pitt has faced all year. With an average of 38.4 points and 473 yards per game (16^th and 24^th respectively), this unit will put up points. The Tarheels haven’t scored less than 26 since their week one loss to South Carolina. Marquise Williams and the offense can score quickly or grind out a 10+ play drive.

On the downside for the offense, slow starts and turnovers have been an issue. GT was spotted a 21-0 lead before UNC outscored them 38-10 in the last 32 minutes of the game. UNC was in a three point game with UVA last week until the fourth quarter. Throw in four turnovers the past two weeks and you have an explosive offense that has shot a few holes in its feet.

That doesn’t change the fact that the Tarheels will put up points. This is the the same offense that scored 40 on Pitt last year. Marquise Williams, Ryan Switzer, Quinshad Davis, and many others return. Williams accounted for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns last year. Ryan Switzer has killed Pitt with big plays the past two years. Elijah Hood is the best RB UNC has had since Pitt came to the ACC.

The good news is that UNC’s offense is not drastically different than the ARCHRIVAL ORANGE or Virginia Tech. The Tarheels will mostly operate out of the shotgun with QB runs, read options, screens, packaged plays, and other concepts the defense is familiar with. The difference is UNC is more talented than the others.

That talent difference starts with Marquise Williams. When the 6’2” 225 pound Williams is on top of his game, he can easily throw for 250+ yards and add another 100+ on the ground. If he’s struggling as a passer, he can still eat up yards on the ground. In order to stop this offense, you have to stop his legs and hope his passing is off.

When Williams does throw the ball, he loves to spread it around. Four different UNC players have 300+ receiving yards and six have a reception of 35+ yards. Of those four with 300+ yards, three are 6’4” or 6’5”, a distinct advantage over Pitt’s shorter CBs. The other is Ryan Switzer, and as mentioned, he’s enough of a problem as is. One of the key matchups will be Pitt’s secondary vs. these tall WRs. This will be an area the Tarheels target for big plays as even good coverage can lose when there’s a 6” height difference.

When Williams hands the ball off, Elijah Hood will be a load to take down. The 6’ 220 pound sophomore has the speed to go wide and the power to run between the tackles. He’s averaging 6.5 yards per carry and has eight touchdowns already on the season. He can be effective with limited carries and uses his size to get better as the game goes on.

The offensive line, led by senior RG Landon Turner, is experienced and talented. Three of the five are in their 3^rd or 4^th year starting. This group has paved the way for the UNC running game all season. Pass blocking is not as good, with 10 sacks given up on the season.

My concern is that even if Pitt executes on defense, UNC has the talent advantage to overcome it. Last week we saw Avonte Maddox’s worst game of the season when matched up with Steve Ishmael. Ishmael is 6’2” and used the height advantage to beat Maddox even when coverage was good. With three WRs taller than Ishmael, that’s a matchup nightmare. Williams and Hood are strong runners and can power their way to 4-5 yard gains. Pitt’s ability to rush the passer can be negated by a quick passing game similar to what the ARCHRIVAL ORANGE accomplished last week.

The key will be to stop the run. Force UNC to score through the air. This will likely mean keeping three LBs on the field when UNC goes three wide, which is their base offense. The basic premises behind their offense is spread the defense out to open up room to run inside. Keep three LBs on the field to play the run and hope the secondary can handle it. If UNC’s running game is stifled, Williams is prone to mistakes and errant throws.  Even if the running game is stopped, UNC will still score through the air. But, if you make the Tarheels one dimensional, you take them out of their comfort zone and hopefully turnovers will follow.

Best case scenario, the defense stops the running game and UNC turns the ball over a few times. Pitt’s offense has short fields and capitalizes on them and continues their run of great second halves to close the game. Worst case scenario, UNC has their way and drops 40+ points on the board.

Defense:

UNC’s defense is light years better than the dumpster fire it was last year. UNC allowed less than 27 points only ONCE all season long. They gave up 40+ SIX TIMES. That’s basically half of their season with 40+ points allowed. Fast forward to 2015 and only one team has scored more than 17 points in seven games. The defense has been aided by a very easy schedule (two FCS opponents, only GT’s offense ranked higher than 84^th in PPG) and Pitt will be the second best offense they’ve faced. But, those numbers aren’t a farce; this defense has improved by a large margin.

Chizik’s success with UNC’s defense should sound familiar. He focused on the fundamentals and changing team culture. He installed a more simplistic scheme that enables players to think less and react more. The results have proven to be effective and UNC’s defense has been a strength. Yup, sounds exactly Pitt’s success under Narduzzi and Conklin this year. UNC is playing smart, fundamental defense and when it’s combined with good play-calls from an experienced DC, the results are impressive.

The one area that jumps out beyond yards and points is turnovers. UNC has forced eight turnovers the past three weeks, including five last week against UVA. That’s an impressive number especially given GT and UVA were one score games in the fourth quarter. These weren’t junk time turnovers; they were game winning plays.

Like Pitt, UNC’s defense is greater than the sum of its parts. The Tarheels are fundamentally sound, but the plays that jump out from a talent perspective don’t show up. They only have six sacks on the season, none of which are from a LB. They’re 119^th in tackles for a loss. This defense is conservative and tries to let the offense happen in front of them and then proceeds to make the tackle. This is great for a team with an explosive offense. Force the opposition to earn their points via long drives, something that few college offenses can consistently do.

But, if there’s one thing Pitt’s offense has been great at this season it’s the ability to play small ball. UVA had 200+ yards on the ground against this defense last week and likely would’ve won without the turnovers. Illinois put up 200+ yards on the ground.  The opening is there to march the ball down the field with the running game and short passes like Pitt has done all season. Even better, this would keep UNC’s offense off of the field.

Best case scenario Pitt moves the ball consistently and eats up clock all the way to the end zone like the end of the ARCHRIVAL ORANGE game. UNC’s powerful offense can’t score when they aren’t on the field. Worst case Pitt gets behind early and has to try and eat up yards in chunks, playing right into UNC’s hand. Turnovers kill the team and the end result could be ugly.

Prediction:

Last year, Pitt went score for score with UNC thanks to 220 yards and 3 TDs from James Conner. If it wasn’t for a classic Matt House defense collapse, Pitt wins last year. Pitt is better on defense but a step or so back on offense without Conner. My primary concern is the offense has only topped 26 points once against FBS opponents. UNC has only scored under 26 once. If this holds true, either Pitt’s offense will have to have their best game of the season OR the defense will have to hold UNC to their worst since their first game.

Pitt’s best chance at victory is to keep UNC’s offense off of the field. A VT like performance isn’t happening given the way the defense has faltered the past two weeks. Grind the ball with Ollison and James, convert key short passes to Boyd and the TEs, and grind UNC’s defense down so you can control the clock as much as possible.

Unfortunately I don’t think that will happen. Pitt’s offense will score, but UNC’s offense has too much of a talent advantage, especially in the secondary vs WR battle. If UNC gets the ball going on the ground early Narduzzi is in a lot of trouble. I see more scenarios where UNC wins this game than Pitt. I don’t think Pitt can keep up in a shootout and I don’t see a way Pitt’s defense completely stifles UNC’s offense. The scheme and execution are there, but UNC is just too talented.

UNC wins 31-24.

I’ll add this caveat. This team has the faith in themselves to find a way to win. I don’t know if UNC has that. The fan in me desperately wants to believe that this faith will overcome UNC’s talent advantage on offense. Either way, I’m absolutely stoked beyond belief for this game. Chas has graciously given me the press pass, so I will be tweeting a ton. Make sure you follow me.