I apologize in advance that this is not up to my usual standard. I’ve been too busy with work and I rushed through this. My analysis is good, but my writing sucks in this one. Sorry guys.

After last year’s abomination, it’s surprising to see how optimistic Pitt fans are against Georgia Tech. I’m not necessarily predicting a loss, but I see more confidence than I think is warranted. Last year’s homecoming embarrassment was not purely a product of the 734  six lost fumbles (five in the first half). GT had 612 yards of offense on the ground and scored 28 points in the second half after the Fumblepalooza ’14 in the first half. Georgia Tech ran the ball at will against a defense that returns most of the same starters. Let’s break them down.

Offense:

Offensively, the Yellow Jackets are not the same as last year. Clemson held them to one of the worst rushing totals of the Paul Johnson era with 71 yards last week and Duke held them to 173 yards two weeks prior. GT lost their top four non-QB rushers from last season and both starting WRs. For any offense, that’s a killer. The only experience they have at skill positions is QB Justin Thomas, who has taken a step back from last year’s success. The OL has some continuity with most starters returning, albeit with a little shifting around.

Talent wise they may be a step back, but the scheme is the same. Their base play is a triple option. The QB obviously has three options: A FB dive, QB keep, or a pitch/throw. They’ll run numerous variances of this and of course other plays, but if they can move the ball with this setup they will do it all game long. In my opinion, the reason the offense doesn’t look as good is that the FB dive (BB in their terminology) has been less effective. In 2014, Zack Laskey averaged 5.0 yards per carry in this position while Stanford transfer Patrick Skov is only at 4.2 this year. Even worse, he has yet to break 4.0 the past four games in addition to only one carry that was 10+ yards. If the dive isn’t working, GT will struggle to move the ball consistently, which is what has happened recently. When the dive is stopped by the DL, it frees up LBs to flow outside to handle the QB/pitch option.

Even with the above, GT is still averaging 271 yards a game on the ground and 132 through the air for 400+ yards a game. For comparison, Pitt is at 337. One thing GT does have in common with Pitt’s offense is turnovers. GT has 10 turnovers on the season (3 INTs and 7 lost fumbles).

The key to stopping this offense is disciplined, assignment football. There’s a lot of misdirection, quick snaps, and moving parts that are designed to get the defense to make a mistake. As I said above, it all starts with the FB/BB dive. The interior of the OL will chop block the DL and leave a small gap for the BB to explode through. When he makes it through cleanly, it’s difficult for LBs that are playing further back than usual to stop him for a short gain. If this gets going, he’ll get yards in chunks of five to seven and the offense will move the ball at will.

If the ball doesn’t go inside, the QB will sprint to one side and read several players to determine if he should keep or pitch/throw to another option. Pitt does have an advantage in pass coverage as CBs will be left on islands, something Pitts and Maddox are already accustomed to. Few teams in college football do this, which is why the Yellow Jackets are able to exploit deep throws. Hopefully this means GT loses the deep ball battles, which will force them to earn their yards on the ground.

Best case scenario, Pitt’s defense continues to hold opponents under their season average. If Pitt can hold GT under 300 yards of offense it’s hard to see a loss. Worst case scenario…just read the first paragraph.

Defense:

GT ranks 55^th in the nation in total defense at 365 yards per game. Their rushing defense is what pulls them down, giving up 175 ypg and nearly five yards per carry plus 14 touchdowns allowed. The fewest yards they’ve give up to a P5 opponent was 165 vs. Duke. The other three topped 200 yards on the ground.

Do you see where I’m going here? The Yellow Jackets run defense is bad. Duke only threw for 114 yards, had three turnovers, and the Blue Devils still managed to get 165 yards on the ground. When the best your run defense can do is 165 yards against a team that can’t pass, you’re in trouble.

Where GT does well on defense is against the pass. They have six interceptions and allow less than 200 yards per game through the air. They’ve only allowed 6 TD passes and QBs are only completing 57% of their passes. This is mostly due to good secondary play as the pass rush is under 2 sacks per game.

Best case scenario is Pitt gets the ball going on the ground with Ollison and James to keep GT’s high powered offense off of the field. The defense needs rest between drives as the cut blocks and constant movement will tire them out. Worst case is…well, see the first paragraph. In reality, the worst case for Pitt is that GT stifles Pitt’s running game and forces Peterman to move the chains with his arm consistently. If he falters via turnovers or short drives, Paul Johnson’s offense will have too many opportunities to get going and there’s no doubt they will if given enough time.

Overall, this game reminds me how difficult it is to be objective about Pitt. Objectively, I think Pitt has a great chance. The Pitt fan in me says “they’re due for a letdown.” I feel like Charlie Brown if he had kicked the football a few times. Just because the ball wasn’t taken away a few times can’t possibly mean it won’t happen again. It can’t keep up, right? Good news has to be taken away somehow.

But, I strive to be objective over a fan and my objective head says Pitt wins 34-24. What say yinz?