This is a very long one folks; enjoy it for your weekend reading pleasure.
As we all know that in any Pitt pre-season there is nothing even remotely negative written about the team, players and the coaching staff by the local media, especially with a brand new head coach such as we now have. The only straight opinions you’ll get will be from some local bloggers and maybe a recruiting website that follows the Panthers. Keep that in mind while you read this article please and realize there is certainly some good about this team to go along with the not-so good… like the ‘good news’ media has been feeding us all preseason.
We all have thoughts about what’s positive with Pitt in 2015; here are my thoughts about what I see and feel. Earlier in the pre-season we mentioned that we would hold off on a season W/L projection until fall camp had ended. Now is that time and here’s mine.
We are a week until the start of the 2015 season and the real beginning of year one of ‘The Narduzzi Experiment’. We’ve been getting camp reports, scrimmage stats, leaks about this and news about that and we have all been doing what fans always do at this point. We are wondering just how good or how bad the team in going to be this year.
Every season is a blank slate to start anew, especially with a shiny new Head Coach and his eager staff coaches. Those new additions add another layer of mystery and excitement for us when looking at what will happen over the next 12 weeks. What it does also is add a new layer of concern, and to some fans, worry because of the unknowns with the staff.
Just the other day Chas posted an article about Pitt’s contribution to the sportswriter’s All-75 year team and we are proud of that; we consistently put good players into the NFL where they become all-pros; we continually have All-Americans and All-Conference players, etc. Yet we are also constantly at the .500 won/loss mark, again as Chas pointed out.
In other words all the awards, accolades, hype and optimism is secondary to the real Pitt Panthers as a team, with team synergy, going out and actually winning more football games than we lose. We just don’t do that on any sort of a consistent basis and quite honestly I have neither seen nor heard anything concrete that tells me we’ll be much better than six or seven wins this season also.
The ‘normal’ Pitt fan’s viewpoint toward their favorite team is fascinating and that’s why we write these rather in-depth Blather articles. It’s done so we get the most feedback as possible from our readers/commenters who make up that fan base. On the whole Pitt fans are an optimistic bunch and are looking forward to see us rack up more wins, maybe even a bunch more, in 2015.
So why do Chas, myself and many other Pitt fans, when we sit down and really look at what the Pitt program has going into this season, shy away from that same optimistic feeling? We do it because there are valid reasons for it and here are some of them.
This offseason has been one of consistent change… some obviously good ones such as the new Chancellor firing the not well liked Athletic Director Steve Pederson as soon as feasible.
But I wonder if some of the other ‘positive’ changes being mentioned are really that. Our new AD had zero input into the hiring of the HC. How strange and unusual is that to happen when hiring a HC? As a matter of fact Scott Barnes is in a sense somewhat beholden to his own subordinate employee as Narduzzi was on the search committee which selected him. That is something out of the usual and unproven for success.
Then there is the change at the top of the football heap. The truth here is we don’t know squat about how the new HC and his new staff are going to produce at Pitt this season. At least when a new HC has previous experience in the top position elsewhere you can look at his track record and form an opinion, but our guy is a rookie in every sense of the word when it comes to being a HC.
Everyone is excited about the national Best Defensive Coordinator Broyles Award buzz because Narduzzi won it in 2013 and our new DC Josh Conklin was on the final list in 2014 but, as we see time and again, awards mean about as much as the material they are sculpted from when it comes to Pitt having winning seasons..
If we are comparing our current HC’s defensive coordinating prowess to our departed HC’s offensive coordinating prowess, because that is the only direct comparison of the two I can find, then here’s something to sink your teeth into; in the five Big Ten matchups between the two coordinators, Paul Chryst’s offenses scored an average of 31 ppg on Narduzzi’s defenses.
Huh, now who would have thought that?
I make that point for this reason only; it is silly to look at what any coach did before they became a first time HC and then believe that is going to make or break what the team will do under his rookie command. It just doesn’t work that way.
We fans and the local and national media all believed Pitt’s offense was going to explode in 2012 with the offensive guru Chryst as our new head coach. But in his first year we posted a 6-7 record mainly due to the fact that we were 71st in total offense at 390 ypg and an even worse 74th in scoring offense at 26.6 ppg. Here, see for yourself…
Not only was the offense disappointing but ironically the Pitt defense that year was the best we had had since DW’s 2009 team. In ’12 we were 17th in total defense with 330 ypg and 23rd in scoring defense at 21.1ppg, yet the Chryst offense sputtered and limited us down to only six wins.
What all that points to is that it is entirely practical to believe that our defense could actually be worse this season when the guy who is considered the greatest thing to college defenses since sliced bread is the HC on the sideline as opposed to the DC calling defenses in the booth.
If we think Narduzzi is going to be in DC Conklin’s ear dispensing continual pearls of wisdom and issuing in-game orders during the season we’ve another think coming. It is just as possible that Narduzzi will take a large hands-off approach to the defense, aside from the pre-season programmatic planning, and concentrate on being the program’s CEO vice his playing DC all over again. It is what he said he’d do and it isn’t out of the ordinary at all for a HC to fleet up and create that separation. It is what needs to be done when you are a new Leader.
What about our returning players and new recruits and transfers?
A lot of Pitt fans have been saying that Narduzzi and staff have, can or will, recruit better than our last run of coaches. Nothing we have seen shows any inkling of that so far. His ‘gets’ for the 2015 class are average 3* ballplayers who haven’t shown anything yet. Some will do though and as early as this season maybe, but let’s not hold our breath on that issue being all that beneficial to the outcome of our season..
Hell, even his defensive recruiting isn’t any better than what it Pitt had over the last three years. All that could change as the years roll on and let’s hope it does. We know Narduzzi is a strong personality and sometimes that alone can sway a recruit and his parents, but as with almost everything in recruiting the yardstick of success is winning the games and establishing local trust.
New Pitt HC Dave Wannstedt had that local trust going for him in spades being a former Pitt player and all around Yinzer who was in good stead with the local football network. Narduzzi is walking into this situation cold and inexperienced and it showed from his hire in December until the recruiting LOI Signing Day.
It is one thing to win ten games and then try to recruit the best and the brightest. It is a whole other thing to win six games and try to do the same. The first is an easier lift and needs to happen to build a strong program. The second is a hell of a lot harder and that is what Narduzzi is inheriting in this job.
Fans also point to Narduzzi getting transfers in for immediate help as a proactive and good thing but the fact is that at the end of training camp not one of those transfers seems to have even scratched the prospective two deep let alone will fill a starting position.
DE Allen Edwards doesn’t look to have much impact on that position and DT Mark Scarpinato, a seldom used journeyman who just happened to know Narduzzi at his prior team, isn’t mentioned much for the interior DL two deep either.
JUCO WR Rafael Araujo-Lopes hasn’t stood out in any way at all in camp. He didn’t catch a pass in the 2nd scrimmage and I don’t think he did in the first scrimmage either.
The ironic thing about these Narduzzi driven transfers is that the best hope for an immediate impact from a new player is Nate Peterman at QB and that is the position which has already has a starter named in the incumbent Chad Voytik.
That leaves us coming out of fall camp with almost the exact same personnel in place who got us to a 6-7 season last year. Yes, we have a freshman or two who will contribute but that happens every season with every Pitt team. I’m not jumping up and down about the possibility of any true FR making a big impact on the team’s fortunes this season save maybe 4* S Jordan Whitehead in the return game.
What do Pitt fans see as far as talent on the field goes that points us to more than 6 or 7 wins, even if that?
We all fervently hope Conklin will make a difference as our new DC but don’t take a close look at his actual track record at FIU unless you want to start worrying. in 2013 his defense was 94th in the nation overall; it bettered that in 2014 when he got them to 35th nationally which put FIU squarely two spots lower than… drum roll please…Pitt’s defense last year. That was the basis of being on the Broyles list.
We can hope he’ll keep that run up the ladder going at Pitt but he’s playing in the Power 5 schools’ arena now. He’ll make us more aggressive in trying to get the ball on turnovers, which we desperately have to be better at, but we may well give up more big plays in doing so.
Narduzzi’s approach to leaving the Cornerbacks in 1 on 1 coverage may backfire in a big way also. From the Post-Gazette:
And it’s not just a mentality change that Hill (DBs coach) is preaching, either. He said the defensive backs have increased the number of ball drills they do in a given practice and that he also hopes Coach Pat Narduzzi’s man-to-man concept will result in a more aggressive secondary.
Rather than worry about various assignments and concepts, Pitt’s cornerbacks primarily will be matched up with an opposing receiver and just told to guard him wherever he goes.
Hmmm…, “…just told to guard him wherever he goes.” Sure coach, no problem there.
Our CBs coming out of this camp aren’t any better than we have had in the last few years. We are retreading who we put out there last year and just switching some people around to different spots on the two-deep. The talent there is average and since we were 43rd in the nation in Passing Efficiency Defense last year I don’t think anyone can say it is a part of the defense guaranteed to improve. We gave up some huge passing plays last season and this new coverage approach probably isn’t going to diminish that.
Our LB corps is underwhelming to say the least. The returning starter is target #1 of our fan’s disappointment and the two other prospective starters couldn’t beat out two average-at-best LBs over the last three years. Journeyman LB Mike Caprara, as much as I have liked the kid since his recruitment, is looking like he’ll the first LB off the bench in case any of the starters falter. Not too many happy making thoughts about the LBs there. More speed is the best we can hope for.
We have across the line injuries on the OL with perhaps our best returning lineman, Jaryd Jones-Smith, out for the year. Add to that it looks like we are have a kid, rsFR Brian O’Neill play OL who 1) never played that position in HS (he was a TE and DE there) and 2) was the 4rd string TE up until four weeks ago. From the Trib:
Stuck on a crowded depth chart at tight end, O’Neill was called into coach Pat Narduzzi’s office for a meeting at the end of spring drills. Narduzzi had a shortage at tackle after Jaryd Jones-Smith’s season-ending injury, so he proposed a position change.
“It was more of a conversation back and forth,” O’Neill said. “I wasn’t forced to do anything.” O’Neill talked it over with his family, but the decision was an easy one, he said. “It’s what the team needed,” he said, “and I went to him the next day and said, ‘I want to move to tackle.’ I haven’t looked back since.” and…
After less than one training camp at a new position, O’Neill has moved onto the first team because of injuries. First to Jones-Smith and later to center Artie Rowell, which forced Peterson to shift Alex Officer from right guard to center and Alex Bookser from right tackle to guard. When Rowell returns, Bookser and O’Neill will compete for the starting job at tackle.
Our Center, Artie Rowell, who did an OK job in 10 quarters of play before a major injury put him out for the rest of the season, didn’t practice much at all this camp due to other injuries. Rowell is a fan favorite but he really hasn’t done anything extraordinary in his time at Pitt. To date his claim to fame is that he:
“…garnered All-Bowl Team recognition from NFL.com and CollegeFootballNews.com for his performance in Pitt’s 30-27 Little Caesars Pizza Bowl victory over Bowling Green.”
I think we all like Rowell so much because he looks like the 35 year old plumber who shows up at your house at any time, day or night and in any weather condition without charging you extra.
If that about the OL isn’t an area of concern it should be, at this point we have no idea what the OL was really going to be like after losing Rotheram and Clemmings… now we really don’t know what we’ll have.
Wait a minute! Our special team kids, punter Ryan Winslow and place kicker Chris Blewitt are pretty good and with Special Teams coach Andre’ Powell splitting time between the ST and the RBs we may see improvement there and that should to help us win some close games. By the way and contrary to public belief, our 2014 team had the exact same arrangement with a staff coach Chris Haering doing double duty as a ST coordinator just as Coach Powell will this season.
But here are some things that makes me wonder about this season the most.
When I got into discussions with others at the in the spring and fall practices who aren’t Pitt football staff employees, and the media in attendance, I have noticed a marked lack of high excitement of the sort we see among the Pitt fans.
Now, that doesn’t mean we are going to suck because they aren’t jumping up and down. It just means that people who are around the program day in and day out are holding the same ‘wait and see’ attitude that some of us not-so-excited fans are.
That is reasonable IMO because, as we have said many times on here, we’ve seen it all before at Pitt and we’ll see it all again… but if you are convinced we’ll have a big season then show me something more concrete than being excited about it happening.
The ‘whispered about in public’ assertion that the first three games will be tough ones for us to win with a new coaching staff is certainly valid, and that includes the YSU and Akron teams my friends. Yes, “We should never lose to YSU or Akron!”, yet we have done just that over the last three years. Granted those losses were with a different coaching staff but maybe it’s about time to stop saying that particular mantra because at this point it sounds silly.
I’ll say this about the ’15 opener. Three years ago I was at a tailgate the morning of the opening game against YSU when someone yelled out that Chryst had suspended six players for the day. I turned to the guys I was talking with and said “We are going to lose this game…”. It was that plain and simple. Obviously that wasn’t well received and people looked at me like I was crazy and/or a raving fool.
I didn’t state that because of the talent level of the suspended players that wouldn’t be on the field, actually those six players who sat out probably wouldn’t have made a big difference in the outcome anyway. I did it because it happened with a first year HC going into his first ever game as The Boss. I firmly believed those actions on the player’s and the HC’s part would impact the team from the morning bus ride over to Heinz until the final whistle and it did. We all know what happened as Pitt came out of the tunnel and fell flat on its collective face and embarrassed the football program.
I’m getting much the same vibe now for the YSU game as I did then. It is exactly the same circumstances with the coaching staffs, but on top of it all we are playing without two proven talents and their experience on the field in WR Tyler Boyd and DE Rori Blair. We will miss them. Plus, our QB Chad Voytik has no experience playing without his passing safety blanket Tyler Boyd in the huddle and our OL is in a state of uncertainty.
The injuries to Jones-Smith, Rowell and RB Rachid Ibrahim create some actual problems. I think fans underestimate how the loss of Ibrahim, with his tale and experience, will impact the team. He’s a proven ‘go-to’ guy in our offense and he’s produced in that role very well.
The DE position is up in the air and DL Darryl Render might not play due to injury. Both Blair and Render are experienced guys we can ill afford to lose from an already suspect defense. Yes fellow Pitt fans, it is still suspect as hell until it shows us otherwise.
Next week we face YSU’s HC Bo Pelini (who is way more qualified and experienced as a HC than Narduzzi is), Ron Stoops and Carl Pelini as co-DCs and there you have an experienced staff of coaches who have cut their teeth in tough conferences against good Big Ten opponents and who had as much or more success than our staff guys have had at their last jobs.
Hey, Shane Montgomery is no slouch at the Offensive Coordinator position either and had been mentioned a few time in the past as an OC candidate for D1 schools. His offense scored pretty well against us when they racked 31 points against what turned out to be pretty decent Pitt defense. He can call games just fine.
I’m not making any bets on that YSU game at all because I’m that concerned. We’ll most probably go out and win it (let’s hope so because we really need that to happen) but anyone who thinks that game is a lock for a Pitt win has an amazingly short memory.
Some fans think we’ll better our six win record by virtue of the fact that we while we lost close games last year with a bumbling HC somehow a new staff is going to turn those outcomes 180º around. How is that sure to happen?
We did come that close to scoring just a few points needed for at least two more wins in 2014 (Iowa, Duke and maybe NC?) with a guy who was very well steeped in the offensive side of the game. What exactly makes us believe we’ll be any better with in-game/crunch time decisions with Narduzzi who has self confessed he had never even been in an offensive meeting room his whole career up until this spring? A HC who never cared about the offensive side of the game other than to defend against it?
All that said, Narduzzi set a goal of a 57% increase in… something that I can’t quite figure out. Here’s what he had to say about that at the ending of camp:
Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi asked his players to get 3 percent better every day during training camp. It turned out that was asking too much. Prior to the 19th of 21 scheduled practice sessions Thursday, Narduzzi did the math and said Pitt is not 57 percent better.
“Maybe 50 percent,” he said. “I don’t know if we got the whole 7 extra percentages there. We’ll find out as we go. “You would like to get that 3 percent, but I don’t think you got it every day. I truly don’t. It’s tapered off. You have camp legs right now and I think guys are mentally and physically, `Is this almost over?’
Not to be a complete ass and because everyone in a serious leadership position does things differently but with all the talk we got in the off season of ‘definable goals’ this is what we hear going into the season opener.
But that’s OK and quirky and totally Narduzzi from what I’ve seen and heard from him. The proof will be shown on the field of play anyway, not in some vague terms uttered during end of camp interviews when there is absolutely of substance that he’s willing to talk about.
Hey, I also feel that the changes Pitt made can and very well may have a more positive than negative impact on the program and on our win/loss record. I’m just not 100% sold we’ll see that writ large in 2015 given the team this new staff is inheriting, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Where we will see greater growth is as the first year ends and then going into Narduzzi’s second year as the HC. He’ll have more of his own players onboard, Conklin’s and Chaney’s schematic programs will be much more familiar for the troops, thus making them easier to play in.
But the biggest change will be with the 105 players and the 10 coaches working together and getting to know one another’s strength and weaknesses. That goes for the players learning the staff’s strengths and weaknesses also which is just as, if not more, important than the other way around.
I said I’d wait until the fall camp is over to make a prediction and here it goes…Below are our opponents and what happen between us in the past (from Pitt Athletics)
Sept. 5, Youngstown State
Pat Narduzzi makes his Pitt coaching debut against his hometown team, the YSU Penguins, led by former Nebraska coach Bo Pelini.
Sept. 12, at Akron
The Panthers travel to Akron to face Coach Terry Bowden’s improving Zips.
Sept. 19, at Iowa
Upper St. Clair native Kirk Ferentz has led Iowa to 12 bowl games in the past 14 seasons.
Oct. 3, at Virginia Tech*
Pitt has won five of its past six meetings with Virginia Tech, including a 21-16 win last season.
Oct. 10, Virginia*
The Panthers’ late rally fell just short in a 24-19 loss in Charlottesville last year.
Oct. 17, at Georgia Tech*
The Yellow Jackets finished with a No. 7 national ranking after storming to an 11-3 record and Orange Bowl victory in 2014.
Oct. 24, at Syracuse*
The Panthers and Orange have played every year since 1955.
Oct. 29 (Thurs.), North Carolina*
Each of the last three meetings between Pitt and UNC has been decided by a late fourth-quarter score.
Nov. 7, Notre Dame
Drama has ruled recent Pitt-ND series history. The average margin of the past six games has been 4.5 points. Pitt triumphed in the last meeting, 28-21, in 2013.
Nov. 14, at Duke*
The combined score of the past two meetings is 106 to 106. In 2014, Duke outlasted Pitt in two OTs, 51-48.
Nov. 21, Louisville*
Pitt and Louisville meet for the first time as ACC members. The all-time series is tied, 8-8.
Nov. 27 (Fri.), Miami*
The Panthers snapped an eight-game series skid with a 35-23 win at Miami in 2014.
I look at this regular season schedule and see a solid five wins coming our way. I think we take just two of the first three games and we upset someone favored later in the season, maybe Notre Dame at home. That gives us six wins on the season with chances being better that we get a 7th win over a 7th loss.
6 wins and 6 losses with a 7th win if we take the first three games in a row, get some needed breaks and the number of turnovers we are expecting.
If this is better for you Colbert. I mean GC
That’s not the generally accepted definition. You do know that anyone can add a definition at urbandictionary, right?
H2P
You’re like Chuck Norris with words. Just pictured you taking on Tossing and Keith (see above) with one hand behind your back. I don’t agree with what you say, but that’s a funny image. Could be because I’m a few in.
H2P
Tex – You get some rain? We got 20 mins worth baby!!! First time in 3 months we got rain.
That’s what happens when a team is good enough at times to beat anyone on its schedule and bad enough at times to lose to anyone on its schedule!
I wonder if there is another team in college football that even comes close to Pitt in inconsistency.
Good night all.
H2P
I think 1-0 is as far as I am going with our team. I think the coach has already played the game out in his mind (as he should). Visualization for coaches is a really good attribute. It prepares you for a lot of crap, come game time. Kind of wish someone could ask Nard about that because to me, visualization is all about situational awareness and decisioning. So again, 1-0 and let’s go!
Brian Dohn sensing Therran Coleman is becoming a stronger Pitt lean, but West of Virginia and Wisconsin are trying to make last minute pushes. Never could trust tony gibson. Proven liar and is…ummmm, dirty, but the kids somehow believe his crap! West of Virginia has way too many safeties and CB’s the last two years. He can come here and compete for a spot right away and have help with Hamlin, Whitehead and Brycen. 412.
Reed – you bring up valid points comparing last year’s Pitt offense with Arkansas – one flaw I see is the SEC defenses are much better than the ACC. So, if our D improves this year as it should and our O maintains last year’s production, we should win more games.
Look for both QB’s to play if Chad get’s off to a slow start – the hot arm will stay in the game and probably start against Akron. All four RB’s will get touches along with about eight WR’s seeing action. This concept of rotating in fresh legs like hockey will be duplicated on D. HCPN will throw everyone at the Penguins – you might even see some cross-checking, slap-shots and an occasional fight. Emotions will be high and our HC will be at the center, fueling the fires.
Less than a week now until the tailgating and kickoff.
HTP!
Damon Wilson’s delay is related more to the HS he attended than his individual grades. An investigation of the HS by the NCAA is delaying Wilson’s qualifying status.
I still think we should be good to go for a successful year. The fact we are in better shape and the coaches are pushing mental toughness overall should help. Weren’t most of our losses by less than a touchdown last year? Beating VA alone would have changed the outlook for this year tremendously.
I have read that about a few hundred times.
My point was to say that have I was saying all along that they were brought in for backup roles – although I was hoping Allen could beat out either Soto or Price both of whom I think are easily replaceable. But the fact is that in camp they didn’t distinguish themselves at all really. Both have been “...in the conversation...” according to the staff and the media which means something that isn’t all that good actually. Taleni is in the conversation, so is Wuestner and many other kids who are bumping around the 2nd string but not really on it.
Now, soon Narduzzi and staff will release the two-deep going into the opener and I might be wrong on the actual players on the two-deep but not too far off because I’m parroting what others are writing about it – guys who attend every practice every day.
Point is that not one of the transfers, save Peterman, looks to make any great impact right off the bat and the fans were banking on the two D players and the transfer WR to contribute big time.
That’s what I have been saying when I have been talking about “almost the exact same players” this year will be the starters and two deep less the kids that are graduated (Rotherham and Clemings, Gonzalez, Thomas, Vinopal, Durham) etc…
Honestly with our injuries in camp I don’t see us replacing the talent level of those six guys this season. The only upside I see is someone taking over the 2nd WR spot for departed WR M. Garner. Other than that I think we may have a dropoff in the OL, in the LB corps and DE. Maybe not the LBs given the new aggressive Narduzzi/Conklin defense.
I am skeptical that Ejuan Price can match Durham’s production and DD had the 2nd most Sacks/TFLs on the team and made some pretty dramatic plays to help out late in some games.
Rori Blair is an interesting case also and not just because of the suspension, which BTW is still open ended on Narduzzi’s part. That is because the PA Judicial system is still not done with Blair. It well may be that he has to do some punitive things that would take him out of practices or even games during the season, Community service or possibly, I hope not, some stints of jail time. I know guys in PA who got 4-6 weekends for lesser things than Blair did… remember his wasn’t a typical kid drinking beer DUI – his had worse components than that.
The fact with that is that on August 25th Blair had his preliminary case and two days ago, Aug. 28th, Blair’s case was kicked upstairs from the Magisterial District to the PA Court of Common Pleas. Guess we didn’t see or hear anything about that the last two days.
This is still serious business for Blair folks, this all happened in March when Blair was already 21 years old and is still awaiting final disposition.
(Here are the pending charges if you are interested.)
Makes me wonder who was in that front seat.
All this truly the reason why Narduzzi stated that the discipline for Blair is still ‘unfinished’ as opposed to Boyd suspension being the end of his case. If Blair has to miss game week practices or even weekend games because of legal commitments he won’t be in that two deep unless the staff is very stupid…. which is another kick in the nuts to the DE/DL.
BTW – if anyone thinks this is a breach of privacy in any way 1) the info is totally public, 2) the charges were in every paper and media outlet and 3) young Mr. Blair is an adult and over 21 years. There is no slander or libel here and I include this because we are talking about the Pitt football team and this is still a major issue for a position of real need this season.
Here’s an example — 3-star Jalyn Powell transferred from Mich State to YSU…
link to collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com
Go Pitt.
I think the fact the this defense will be more aggressive and is coached by more experienced coaching HAS to make a difference. I have a greater concern on how the coaching change will affect offense.
To me, the difference maker this year is Tyrique Jarrett. He needs to play with an attitude and with mental toughness. That to me is his shortcoming. It’s such a mental game. 4-7 seconds of maximum effort and then rest. Both squads will be ready.
Positive- Narduzzi and his experienced staff have an immediate impact on both sides of the ball. The defense improves a lot due to scheme and a some added speed/athleticism with young guys playing and some position switches. On offense the momentum from the second half of last season is continued or even slightly improved upon due to using players more diversely. Guys like jester weah (who might have the most raw talent of the receivers behind boyd), rori blair, lafayette pitts, brian oneill among others all take a step forward under this experienced staff and pitt goes 9-3 against a tough but not impossible schedule.
The negative- The first time head coach narduzzi hits some speed bumps along the way. Chad Voytik starts this season as he started last season and the rebuilt right side of the offensive line is swiss cheese in essence. No wide receivers step up outside of boyd, the defensive ends still produce no pressure in the backfield, the corners get their asses handed to them in man coverage, and pitt hits their floor of about 5-6 wins.
What i think will happen- The addition of narduzzi and his supposedly talented defensive staff will help the defense immediately in certain areas, even though it may not in overall numbers. I think the press coverage will keep teams from dinking and dunking their way down the field but our corners just arent good enough or big enough, both in size and depth, to prevent some big plays. i think they will be vulnerable to the deep ball.
The linebackers arent as big of a concern for me as they are for reed. I think with a simplified scheme that allows them to go and make plays will help them. Theres a good amount of speed and athleticism here and if theyre not a strength, i dont expect them to be a weakness.
the defensive ends are what they are. adding folston adds a fast athletic body and blair can be a player in time, but the ceiling here is very limited. they will have to use the athletic outside backers and corner blitzes to get any pressure. I think the tackles will be a real strength. Tyrique jarrett has apparently made big strides and at worst pitt has five three hudered pounders that can at worst make anything up the middle difficult.
Offensively I expect a wr or two, jester weah and elijah size would be who i hope for or expect to step up a bit. nobody is going to take touches away from boyd but i think pitt has some receivers that actually can make some explosive plays.
the o line might struggle a bit early because of some supposedly non serious injuries but overall i think they will be solid. more injuries obviously will derail that.
the runningbacks will be really freaking good.
This is guesswork, but i have a very good feeling about chad voytik. no he wont through for 4,000 and run for 800 but i think he will at worst be a good game manager and he has shown the ability to make some pretty impressive big plays.
I wont make an exact record prediction but i think 6-8 wins is pretty damn accurate. I really like narduzzi, at least up til now. He seems to have a very aggressive businesslike attidue and work ethic and i think the staff he hired has a great blend of energetic youth and proven experience. we shall see. If pitt comes out and does what it should do on the 5th then ill feel a lot better for the season
The big news on MacVittie out of Friday’s game was that he went down with a knee injury in the third quarter. Reports are the injury was just a sprain and it is not expected to end his season. Prior to the injury MacVittie had completed 7-of-14 passes for 114 yards and two touchdowns, while running 13 times for 53 yards. His arm strength was on display Friday night, but he had trouble locating his target and threw several errant passes. MacVittie was at his most dangerous when he tucked and ran, chewing up yardage with ease and showing escapability.
So let me be clear here – I very much like the Narduzzi hire and I think he’s gotten a decent staff around him. My opinion of that hasn’t changed at all and isn’t the basis for my 6-6 prediction. Truth be told if we had hired someone else I might have felt we be under .500. So that isn’t why I’m being wary of the team’s win record this year. It could be ANY 1st time HC and I’d be worried, not singling out Narduzzi – actually I think he’ll be a good in-game motivator.
Let’s be brutally honest here. Our team isn’t populated with 4* and 5* players who will thrive in any system placed in front of them. What talent we saw was shown under a completely different coaching staff, with completely different plans and approaches. and as I said above very few ‘new’ HCs, and by that I mean new to the school, actually have a much better record that the school did the year before. I researched it and was surprised that a new HC gives less that a .5 game edge over the previous year.
Add to that this year being Narduzzi’s 1st ever year as a HC and it is a different animal. What we are seeing so far in the off season and the practices & camps is Narduzzi using the MSU model Narduzzi himself said he is copying off Dantonio at MSU. Those aren’t my words, those are his when asked earlier in an interview. That’s fine and good but Dantonio and Narduzzi recruited specifically to get players the wanted to be on the team and on the field using that model.
Brand new thing for the Pitt players and as romantic as we want to look at things because we want Pitt to do well, strength of personality doesn’t always win out.
But in a real sense it is the team itself that I’m wary of. Our recruiting is stuck in the middle of the pack of D1 schools (this roster is really no different), our schedules have been easy and our other coaches had previous HC experience save Year 1 of Paul Chryst… so out of these 10 seasons 9 of them were led by an experienced HC.
Over the last four years MSU averaged 28th out of 129 schools in recruiting and was trending upward over it’s previous four years… over that same four year period Pitt averaged 46th and was trending downward over the previous four years. So let’s just say that our team isn’t stocked with top shelf players who anyone but Pitt fans, who like them and have followed their careers since HS, don’t believe are really that good.
At the risk of really sounding SOP let’s look at what our teams have done over the past 10 years in the regular season.
DW had a 7.1 win regular season average.
TG had a 6.0 win ”
PC had a 6.0 win ”
Lets not forget that we had some very good/great players on those teams also and for a large part of that time we were playing against a weaker BE schedule. Yet over and over, save for basically 2 years, ’08 & ’09, we were right around .500
OK, I get that is in the past but I don’t see, at this point, anything to make me feel that 10 wins are on the horizon.
That said – and this could happen – If we are easily handling our first three opponents and can come back off three straight road games – another thing no one seems to be factoring in – then I’ll adjust upward…. 3-0 / 4-0 would be a great start toward 9-10 wins and all my thought here will be well off the mark.
Look it. The only relative constants from just last year is the bulk of Pitt’s current roster, our ACC schedule and our home field venue. The changes are a new Chancellor, now fully acclimated to his position and initiating his directives, a new athletic director, still just settling in, a new coaching staff, once again, and finally, something I haven’t felt for more than 40 years here at Pitt, that being the overtly communicated mandate by all of the above powers to be that the University is now committed and ready to do that which is required to make athletics here at Pitt a priority again. That is the current 800 lb gorilla in the room that invalidates all of this historical analysis of the three previous coaching regimes that have preceded Narduzzi’s.
Currently the University is locked and loaded, preparing to enter into a football program renaissance that will produce a new era of Pitt football not seen since the 1980s.This is not me alone just romanticising down memory lane aimlessly dreaming of the bygone glory days of when Pitt was a national powerhouse. This is what the people in power at Pitt want to see happen and apparently they are willing to do whatever it takes to make it reality.
That is why Narduzzi is going to be immediately successful here at Pitt, maybe not 10-2 successful that TT is demanding but 8-4 type middle of the road successful for this season. This will happen because of destiny. Sometimes things just come together and the magic spontaneously occurs. Those conditions currently exist. ACC $$$ flowing in, a stabilized program thanks to HCPC that has left a pretty potent offense in place that contains to All Americans and a seasoned veteran QB, a new AD that has something to prove and a energetic chancellor ready to orchestrate the entire production.
The weak link in this necessary required essential of immediate success on the field is the DEFENSE. Narduzzi is the right guy for that job. And I disagree with Reed here, because I feel that DC Conklin is playing the role of Narduzzi’s protégé currently and this defense will bear Narduzzi’s stamp with Conklin’s approval.
This is why I took umbrage with Reed’s comments yesterday about the apprehensions that he has with Pitt’s opening opponent, YSU. I feel there is almost nothing that similar to the previous meeting between these two other than we are indoctrinating a new coach once again and it’s our home opener. The suspensions of Boyd and Blair have been known about for weeks and we have the troops, although inexperienced on this roster to provide the next man up necessary to defeat this weakest opponent on our schedule.
I have no idea who we beat to get to 8-4 this season, but I do know that to start this campaign off on the right foot that we have to beat YSU. And everybody else in the Pitt program from the ball boy to Chancellor Gallagher fully comprehend this as well. That is why the Penquins get Pitt’s full attention this Saturday as well as a full dose of well deserved payback for Pitt’s historic fail from three years ago.
Hail to Pitt! Let the new Era begin.
