We are now at the time when PITT’s recruit starts to take off so we should review the different Recruiting Sites and see how they compare in their ranking systems.
As you can see below, each one is different in some aspects. Sometimes we see that difference writ large with a single player as happened with QB Mark Myers when he was graded out by these services. Here is Myers’ scores and stars along with our seven 2016 recruits already onboard. Note that ESPN does most of their rankings later in the game.
RECRUIT |
247 | ESPN | RIVALS |
SCOUT |
Mark Myers ‘10 | 86 3* 23rd | 74 2* 103rd | 5.8 4* 11th | 3* 32nd |
Butler | 89 3* | 5.6 3* | 35th 3* | |
Ffrench | NR | NR | NR | |
Ford | 82 3* | 76 3* | 5.5 3* | 63rd 3* |
Garner | 88 3* | 5.4 2* | 42nd 3* | |
Macvitte | 89 3* | 78 3* | 5.5 3* | 57th 3* |
Moss | 84 3* | 5.5 3* | 56th 3* | |
Pine | 86 3* | 5.6 3* | 77th 3* |
You can see that one singular recruit, Mark Myers, was all over the board according to these recruiting services. I believe that is why a lot of college football fans look at the offers a high school player receives during his recruitment period to gauge how good that recruit is or isn’t.
However, the problem with that is not every one of the better football programs might have a need for that player or the school might be limited on the number of scholarships they have to offer, etc…
For me the bottom line with all this isn’t so much how these kids are ranked individually, that means almost nothing when stacked up against other players at around the same talent level. On most of the sites only one or two points separate a 2* kid from a 3* kid and a 3* player from a 4*.
Yes, we all want more 4* than 3* kids but you can win ballgames with 3* players also. At least we better pray we can because that is who Narduzzi is bringing in at this point.
Where I can see these numbers meaning something is in what the overall score of a recruiting class might be in any given year but even then we see recruiting classes with almost the same score play lots better or worse than other classes.
Here is the detailed breakdown by each recruiting site in their own words.
RIVALS.COM
Rivals.com has assembled the top team of recruiting analysts in the nation with both national and regional experts based all throughout the country. With those strengths, players at a number of different positions will be ranked once a month from June until February. The rankings are compiled after countless hours of film evaluation, personal observations and input from professional, college and high school coaches. In the finished product, players are ranked a number of different ways but the most important ways are numerically by position, qualitatively by stars and a new ranking system that grades players on the expected impact they will make in college.Players are ranked numerically on a national level at their positions. The numerical ranking at each position varies depending on the depth of the talent at the position. Players are also ranked on their quality with a star ranking. A five-star prospect is considered to be one of the nation’s top 25-30 players, four star is a top 250-300 or so player, three-stars is a top 750 level player, two stars means the player is a mid-major prospect and one star means the player is not ranked.The ranking system ranks prospects on a numerical scale from 4.9 – 6.1 6.1 Franchise Player; considered one of the elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation’s top 25 players overall; deemed to have excellent pro potential; high-major prospect 6.0 – 5.8 All-American Candidate; high-major prospect; considered one of the nation’s top 300 prospects; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team 5.7 – 5.5 All-Region Selection; considered among the region’s top prospects and among the top 750 or so prospects in the country; high-to-mid-major prospect; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team 5.4 – 5.0 Division I prospect; considered a mid-major prospect; deemed to have limited pro potential but definite Division I prospect; may be more of a role player 4.9 Sleeper; no Rivals.com expert knew much, if anything, about this player; a prospect that only a college coach really knew about |
Scout works from the grass roots and then reports up. We have a Team of Scouts around the country including local scouts that work smaller areas that submit their rankings to a regional manager. The regional manager will compile the rankings from the local scouts in his area then submit his compiled list to the National Editors. A final conference call between the regional managers and the national editors results in a compiled list of national rankings.
Team Rankings
Team Rankings are a math formula that based on a player’s rating and his rankings. 5-Star is a rating, No. 1 quarterback is his ranking.
5 Star = 200 points
4 Star = 120 points
3 Star = 40 points
2 Star = 20 points
The No. 1 player at a position is worth 100 points, counting down to the last ranked player at his position to 0. For Example, assuming Scout ranks 100 quarterbacks.
5-Star, No. 1 QB = 300 points
4-Star, No. 10 QB = 210 points
3-Star, No. 50 QB = 90 points
2-Star, No. 75 QB = 45 points
The position points are a 100 point sliding scale based on the total number of players ranked. Using the No. 100 for quarterbacks is just an example, very few positions have exactly 100 players ranked.
The Team Rankings are compiled of the Top 25 players per class. Some teams will over-sign, but only 25 count towards the Team Rankings.
Only players who have been rated count towards the team rankings. Players who have yet to be rated don’t towards the average star ranking. In this instance there may be eight players on a commitment list, but if only six are rated, the team rankings will show six commitments until stars are added to the player.
Rare prospects: 100-90 [Five stars]
These players demonstrate rare abilities and can create mismatches that have an obvious impact on the game. These players have all the skills to take over a game and could make a possible impact as true freshmen. They should also push for All-America honors with the potential to have a three-and-out college career with early entry into the NFL draft.
Outstanding prospects: 89-80 [Four stars]
These players have the ability to create mismatches versus most opponents and have dominant performances. These players could contribute as a true freshmen and could end up as all-conference or All-America candidates during their college careers and develop into difference-makers over time.
Good prospects: 79-70 [Three stars]
These players show flashes of dominance, but not on a consistent basis — especially when matched up against the top players in the country. Players closer to a 79 rating possess BCS-caliber ability and the potential to be a quality starter or all-conference player. Players closer to a 70 rating are likely non-BCS conference caliber prospects.
Solid prospects: 69-60 [Two stars]
These players are overmatched versus the better players in the nation. Their weaknesses will be exposed against top competition, but have the ability to develop into solid contributors at the non-BCS FBS level and could be a quality fit for the FCS level of play.
Composite Rating
The 247Sports Composite Rating is a proprietary algorithm that compiles prospect “rankings” and “ratings” listed in the public domain by the major media recruiting services. It converts average industry ranks and ratings into a linear composite index capping at 1.0000, which indicates a consensus No. 1 prospect across all services.
The 247Sports Composite Rating is the industry’s most comprehensive and unbiased prospect ranking and is also used to generate 247Sports Team Recruiting Rankings. All major media services share an equal percentage in the 247Sports Composite Rating.
The composite index equally weights this percentage among the services that participate in a ranking for that specific prospect.
A composite strength meter, indicated by red bars, illustrates the total number of industry services that have ranked the prospect. A full strength meter indicates the prospect has been ranked by all industry services participating in the composite.
All industry services have a different philosophy on number of “stars” distributed with each class. The 247Sports Composite Rating assigns stars based on an approximate average distribution of stars from the industry.
Ranking Contribution
247Sports produces ratings and rankings that contribute to the 247Sports Composite. These ratings can also be viewed along side the 247Sports Composite for a comparison.
247Sports has one of the industry’s largest and most recognized national recruiting staffs. Led by industry veterans Barton Simmons and Jerry Meyer (basketball), 247Sports employs a staff of more than 50 reporters, analysts and evaluators that rank the nation’s elite high school football and basketball recruits from multiple class years.
Each recruit we evaluate is assigned a numerical rating as well as a star rating. Ratings are determined by our recruiting analysts after countless hours of personal observations, film evaluation, and input from our network of scouts.
Players are first grouped qualitatively with a star rating, then given a numerical rating based on their future potential, and finally ranked according to these numerical ratings.
110 – 101 = Franchise Player. One of the best players to come along in years, if not decades. Odds of having a player in this category every year is slim. This prospect has “can’t miss” talent.
100 – 98 = Five-star prospect. One of the top 30 players in the nation. This player has excellent pro-potential and should emerge as one of the best in the country before the end of his career. There will be 32 prospects ranked in this range in every football class to mirror the first round of the NFL Draft.
97 – 90 = Four-star prospect. One of the top 300 players in the nation. This prospect will be an impact-player for his college team. He is an All-American candidate who is projected to play professionally.
89 – 80 = Three-star prospect. One of the top 10% players in the nation. This player will develop into a reliable starter for his college team and is among the best players in his region of the country. Many three-stars have significant pro potential.
79 – below = Two-star prospect. This player makes up the bulk of Division I rosters. He may have little pro-potential, but is likely to become a role player for his respective school.
See the attached
Conclusion: Rankings and predictions are two different animals.
Here is a drill-down look at the link you provided with the individual Swamis showing their predictions.
I think a good rule of thumb is to throw out the ratings if the coaches evaluated him in person. I will take their evaluation over some self proclaimed recruiting expert that never coached any time.
Narduzzi has coached against or coached the best players in the country…I am sure he knows the type of athlete it takes to win.
I truly believe these guys ‘predict’ where they WANT the kid to go… not necessarily where he is leaning toward going.
Frank MD, I agree. Narduzzi is doing exactly the same thing Paul Chryst did before him. He’s researching and targeting HS players who he and his staff feel will fit the systems they are going to deploy, offensively and defensively, at PITT.
That’s why, while I’m not jumping up and down about the 2016 class so far, I’m also don’t think it is a poor class BECAUSE WE HAVE NO IDEA WHAT NARDUZZI & CO. WANT ON THE ROSTER!
Remember, Conner was offered as a DE .. I assume based on his athleticism and winning attitude.
Myers most likely wowed the coaches with his arm and possibly QB IQ. He was not offered immediately after the camp, but in late Sept after he put some good early numbers.
I listed these two because they were both selected due in large part of what they showed at Pitt camp.
I’m guessing there is still no conformation on who the other verbal is in addition to Ffrench?
Fantastic recruit. Excellent!!!
Well, the guy that had “Hail to Pitt” in his twitter handle was dead on.
I’ll be paying attention to what he is selling in the future!!!
Great pick up!!
Now, the recruiting services are giving the higher rankings to the top 300 or so kids in the country. That’s 300 out of 180,000, or 1 out of 600. Even if each HS team has say 3 or 4 decent players, that’s still over 40,000 kids to “rank.”
Does anyone know how many recruits the 100 or so serious college teams targets each year? Is it maybe 200? If so, then a lot of kids could have thinner offer sheets, simply by the numbers game – how many WRs is a team going to go after and offer?
For every guy who played in the Super Bowl this season, there were nearly 12,000 high school kids playing football. I don’t know, just seems like a heck of a lot of kids to try to evaluate.
Go Pitt.
You see a lot of guys blowing up plays in high school, like AD at Penn Hills, impossible to predict which one will be NFL rookie of the year.
However to get this published in the College Sports Journal, you need to propose a theorem and then provide massive data to support it.