Offseason football stuff means digging around the numbers.
Earlier in the week, ESPN.com writer David Hale started tweeting out some stuff about close losses. Surprise, Pitt was one of the hardest luck teams when it came to that.
The number is already engrained in the minds of every player at Pitt: 20.
That’s how many points separated the Panthers, who finished 6-7, from being 11-2 last season. It’s a number that defines their failures in 2014 and their motivation for 2015.
“Our new strength coach actually wrote it up on the board,” Pitt quarterback Chad Voytik said. “So we’re using that as fuel for the offseason. If we don’t finish a drill or finish team conditioning, we’re saying, ‘If you don’t finish a spring, you’re not finishing a game either.’ But there’s a level of frustration, too. We know we could’ve been a whole lot better, and we’re looking to change that.”
Pitt and VT both had five losses by seven or fewer points. No other team in the major conferences had that many. Pitt was 1-5 last year in games decided by seven points or less (thanks again, VT), culminating in the blown Armed Forces Bowl.
Hale also noted that over the last five seasons, only Iowa (18) had more losses by seven or fewer points than Pitt (17). In that same stretch, Pitt won 9 games by 7 or fewer points. 9-17 in games decided by seven points or less. I’m still letting that sink in.
If you are wondering how that broke down by coaches, well so did I:
Chryst (and interim HC Rudolph): (2102-2014) 6-9
Graham: (2011) 2-4
Wannstedt: (2010) 1-3
26 out of 65 total games in the last five years decided by 7 or fewer points. 40% of the games Pitt played. 33-32 overall record. 53.1% of Pitt’s losses were by 7 points or less. 28.1% of the wins were that way.
And we wonder why Pitt fans hold on to losses so long. Hard not to, when over half the losses were within a single score of being something else.
Good teams win the close ones. I guess the opposite is true, Poor teams lose the close ones.
Winning the close ones is what separates the Champions from the also-rans.
But there are so many different things that go into losing all those close games..
Poor QB play from a kid that never came from behind.
Special teams gaffes… missed FGs and returned TDS.
A leaky defense that can’t make stops.
Conservative play-calling.
Coaches not putting the guys in the best position to win (see Houston and outHouse’s playcalls)..
This team has built it’s identity based on absurd losses… snatching them from the jaws of victory.
I’m glad they realize how close they’ve been… but what are they prepared to do about it?
is so much that goes into it, that there’s a sea to cross to win those games.
If you think about it, what’s it take to get to
one of the BCS big 6 or 7 bowl games??
10 or 11 wins. That’s it. If you win 10
or 11 games, you’re going to a big bowl game.
It’s that easy and that simple.
It’s not like we’re playing 100 games and you need to win 95.
We win 6 or 7 every year. All we have to do is win 3 or 4 more games, and we’re top 20 and going big time bowling.
Just a simple 3 or 4 more wins a year, that’s it.
But, we all know, that gulf from 6 or 7 wins to 10 wins is monumental.
Those little 3 or 4 wins takes you from
mediocrity to top 20.
Hopefully we’re on our way.
Of course they should be close games. And it shouldn’t be a shock that Iowa is in the same boat. Both teams have had average talent that ran the ball to control the game. Not big runs. Run, run, short pass…rinse, repeat.
This also goes to the coaching staffs inability to put teams away, both offensively and defensively. How often have we watched a game where we were a yard or two short of getting a first down at a critical juncture? How many 3rd and 10 or more successes by our opponent.
Statistics are what you say they are.
Remember the Steelers tried the motivation “just 3 more yards” when they came up short against San Diego. Spin it how you would like. It was never about those 3 yards. It was always about the team not executing throughout the game and making it close at the end. A true pick’em scenario. If this helps the guys to focus, that’s great, but in my opinion the game is 60 minutes of pure passion, focus, and physicality. We tend to concentrate on final scores versus entire games!
BUT WAIT TIL NEXT YEAR!!!
(I’m out of years now with this guy – we better produce this season! :>)
(In 09, we lost to NC State, WVU and Cincy by a total of 11 pts, or we could have been undefeated — BFD)
The solace here should be not so much be that we could have won more games, it’s that we have a lot of returning players who for the most part were very competitive last year, and are a year older.
66goat – do you mean 20 more points on offense? If so I am skeptical. But if you mean holding teams to 20 less points then I can certainly see that.
Just one more stop would have given Pitt the win in many of those close games. Best way to get a stop is to get a sack or hurry the QB into a bad throw… We haven’t seen much of that for a while.
The QB play has begun to step-up and will continue to improve; I wish I could have the same confidence in the DE play…
Getting a couple more stops per game is the biggest need and the biggest challenge for the new coaching staff.
Go Pitt.
In close games last year, and even in losses vs Duke & UNC where we were just uutscored, we were able to run well late in games. We has no such luxury the previous seasons .. and if behind, we were forced to pass and the opponents knew it.
1. Iowa (H) 24-20 outscored 24-10 4th Q; Iowa scored last 10 points (PITT led 20-27 going into 4th Q)
2. VA (A) 24-19 PITT scored last; We blew the last-gasp on-side kick.
3. Duke (H) 51-48 Duke scored last in OT
4. NC (A) 40-35 NC scored last; a TD with 50 seconds left. (PITT led 28-26 going into 4th Q)
5. Houston (N) 35-34 Houston scored the last 21 points deep in the 4th quarter. (PITT led 24-66 going into 4th Q)
So, in four of the five losses the opponent scored last and in three games PITT led going into the 4th quarter.
IMO at least two of those games should have been wins – Duke with the last second missed FG and Houston. But it does show that we fizzled in the last quarter. Narduzzi has to address that.
But being a pitt fan is a world of shoulda, coulda, woulda.
When that happens, Please txt will have wins instead of close losses.
Our team is grinding! Expect big things next season #H2P
We have been on the wrong side of this equation for too long. I don’t know if Narduzzi has the guys to get it fixed this year, but it must be a recruiting priority for next year.
Interesting. The guys reportedly loved the new S&C guy last year. It sounds like Holtz (and Boyd from a post earlier) are buying into the new guy. I hope so.
I love that the S&C guy posted the “20” on the board, as stated by Voytik.
H2P
Gotta be a tough thing to go through.
I just think somehow this new coaching staff will do 20 points better (in difference). I wonder what works out to be in $/point!
Both Talib Zanna and Khem Birch are playing.
A lot better coverage on real channels.
Only one other game at noon tomorrow Clemson – VT. They are on regional cable sports channels.
Now, there will be growing pains with this new staff, but nobody can convince Pitt is not better off with Chryst back in Madison.
Next year’s schedule will be tougher, so we should be realistic with expectations. That said, I am so friggin pumped for some spring ball. No doubt in my mind that this staff will be working their asses off on the recruiting trail also.
Hail to Pitt!!!!
NO MATT HOUSE = Better DEFENSIVE Performance!
Keep the faith brothers (…and sisters)…better times around the corner.
🙂
I had to look at ESPN3 site to see if blacked out in South Carolina. Grand kids are visiting & usually don’t want to watch sports.
Anyway, ESPN3 map looks like it isn’t blacked out in New Jersey, Lower NY % Conn.
It is blacked out in S. Carolina.
Pitt’s high gear is 20 mph slower than NC’s low gear.
DW’s Losses:
2005 -71 points differential on season / 6 losses = 11.8 ppg
’06 – 80 points / 6 losses = 13.3 ppg
’07 – 79 points / 7 losses = 11.2 ppg
’08 – 40 points / 4 losses = 10.0 ppg
’09 – 11 points / 3 losses = 3.7 ppg
’10 – 65 points / 5 losses = 13.0 ppg
DW’s average loss was by 12.4 ppg
PC’s Losses:
’12 – 80 points / 7 losses = 11.4 ppg
’13- 69 points / 6 losses = 11.3 ppg
’14- 57 points /7 losses = 8.14 ppg
PC’s average loss was by 10.3 ppg
Ipso Facto PC was a better coach than Wannstedt, Harris and Jock Sutherland and comes in 2nd all-time behind Pop Warner.
I’m not expecting Harrell, but just maybe there is hope
They play K State and Ohio St. tomorrow and Sunday to finish out the Snowbird’s Classic.
They play Pedo St at home 3-17. I’m on vacation that week. Think I’ll check that game out
The Zoo will be rocking if we can stay competitive.
Can’t wait.
Aside from that here’s to PITT winning two BB games in a row!
MOTIVATION
MOMENTUM
Two essentials ingredients for success!
Comment by Reed 02.13.15 @ 5:56 pm
Quite the comedian Reed. Fact is Paulie made more boneheaded coaching decisions than a Pop Warner League coach.
So by default, Pitt is a football school.
But wait…we’re playing the Tarholes.
Only reason why.
HCPN spoke to PA HS coaches last night, and this was his tweet about. If this says anything about his preparation and dedication to detail, he will be a fine HC. I assume that all the players shown are those from PA on the Pitt roster
Interesting that WR was our weakest position graded – Average talent (even with T.Boyd) and Poor depth wise. That is one man’s opinion, but probably not far off. Losing Jennings and Jones has been placed on X HCPC. And rightfully so, but I’m hoping our new WR coach can pull a rabbit or two out of his hat this year with the talent he has to work with.
On the D side, the DLine received Average grades in both categories. This recruiting class did not help, except the JUCO at DE. That was a head scratcher to me (lack of DL recruits). It seemed HCPN and staff were focused on landing some depth in this area and whiffed. We even lost a few DLinemen in Cook and Maclean who left Pitt early. Maybe the coaches felt the LB position needed more attention.
I’m ready for Spring and very optimistic that our D will be better with “out” House.
HTP!
HTP!
I wonder what Pedo State’s reaction to this tweet will be – stay tuned…Franklinstein will be landing his helicopter soon, picking up his bar of soap and creating his response, I’m sure.
I believe the staff went hard after the DE position but just wasn’t able to pull it off. They went after Miller hard but he was known to be a PSU lean for months … and then they lost the guy from FL to Miss State at the last moment. They also lost Givens the last moment who s from the heart of PSU country — all PSU had to do was offer.
I think this season we will immediately see how good a defensive coach PN is … I’m certainly not expecting a dominant defense, but would be surprised if it isn’t improved … even with the DE and LB positions as such.
That big guy is Alex Paulina. Tony Pilato is to the right of him.
Go Pitt.
Big Day at the Pete, first visit to the Zoo from NC
One thing is already apparent, more excitement, more hype, more direction. When Nard Dog 1st comes in detailing goals as competing for championships, right off the bat, that sends a message, real quick to the team. “Get on board or get out the way”, this team is going to perform much better I predict than they did last season.
The players have not gotten that kind of challenge ever from HCPC’s staff. Remember last season’s motivational tactic by Chryst? “Why not now”? Narduzzi isn’t asking that question, his technique is loud and clear, TELLING this team that the time is NOW! How these young players respond to this message will determine whether the SOP mantra finally gets buried THIS season or not.
I’m thinking this team gets the message. H2P!
How can you possibly say that Adonis Jennings and Ronald Jones leaving the program as this: “Losing Jennings and Jones has been placed on X HCPC. And rightfully so…”? Don’t take this personally, but that is a load of crap.
Paul Chryst left the PITT program on Dec 18th and Narduzzi was hired on Dec 24th or so. Both Jennings and Jones left the program at least three weeks AFTER Narduzzi was hired and when it was set that Cheney was going to be hired as the OC. One could easily say it is obvious that both players left PITT because of the new coaching changes. They could have transferred out anytime after the Jan 2nd bowl game yet they stuck around to see who was being hired as the OC… then they took off…. again AFTER the change in HCs.
The reality is that in ’15, as a rsSR, Ronald Jones would probably have been kept on by Chryst and most probably would have been let go by Narduzzi to gain an extra scholarship.
What Jennings probably did was look at the incoming OC Jim Chaney’s last year at Arkansas and see that he ran the ball almost as much as Chryst did last season. Chryst ran it 66% of the time and Chaney 62%… and that was with a QB who threw 20 TDs to five INTs. Hell, Chaney might match or exceed that 66% run next season with Conner in the backfield.
Add to that the fact that Chaney has always use his TEs liberally – last year Arkansas’s TEs were #2 & #3 in receptions (w/59!) and Jennings saw the writing on the wall. The fact is that both those guys were run heavy last year and Jennings probably wanted to be in a more open passing offense.
Enough of piling every little thing on Paul Chryst’s shoulders. Transfers happen every single year in college ball for many, many different reasons.
