Slim.

Oh, you want more detail?

Mostly slim.

I found articles discussing Pitt’s chances to make the NCAA Tournament, laughable last week because there was no chance. The experts referenced in the articles said as much. It wasn’t that Pitt was eliminated, so much as they aren’t in the discussion. Heck, I feel a little like I’m engaging in clickbaity stuff just by writing about it.

Pitt sits at 16-8. 5-5 in the ACC. Their RPI is somewhere around 56. Long a darling of KenPom.com, they are down in the 90s thanks to a very, very inefficient defense.

Pitt has 3 bad losses: Hawai’i, Virginia Tech and Clemson.

The first two are obvious — though Hawai’i has played far better than expected this year, so technically the VT loss counts as the worst. Clemson would seem like just a regular loss, considering the Tigers are in the middle-of-the-pack in the ACC. But the loss to Clemson came at home. Home losses to other average teams are quite bad for the numbers.

The Panthers have one good win: Notre Dame.

Syracuse and K-State wins might help, but those two teams need to start winning some games.

Here is Pitt’s remaining schedule.

Then there is the ACC Tournament.

Hello, brutal five-day stretch. Within the next week, Pitt has to win at least one of these games. After that, Pitt cannot lose another game — they can’t take anymore bad losses . 6-2 is the minimum.

Even then, Pitt would need to win at least one ACC Tournament game to get on the right side of the bubble. Yes, despite finishing 22-10 and 11-7, they would need one more win. The computer numbers are not kind to Pitt this year.

Arguably it is possible for Pitt to go 5-3 and get in. That scenario still requires winning one of the next 3 games. Losing to Syracuse would be “tolerable” for the numbers. But then Pitt would two wins in the ACC Tournament. Either way, Pitt needs seven wins between now and Selection Sunday.

That is what Pitt can do. There are factors outside of Pitt’s control that help.

The first is the human element of the selection committee. Piling up the wins to finish above .500 in the ACC is still something that has an impact. Despite the computer numbers, they would be seeing a team that has a sizable number of wins in total and in a major conference.

Second, college basketball seems exceptionally flat. There are the top teams. After that, there are plenty of good and decent teams, but few “very goods.” Teams like Michigan State, Michigan, Florida, Texas and UCLA are either out of the picture or just trying to get/stay in the discussion. The NIT is going to be loaded, this year.

The numbers in the statistical rankings after the top 20-30 vary widely depending on how they are computed. That puts greater pressure on the selection committee to make judgments. The dreaded “eye test.” Which admittedly goes back to the human element in the first point.

Third, the enemy of my enemy is my enemy. The teams Pitt has played, need to win. They need to bring their own numbers in the RPI, KenPom, Massey, BPI, etc. up. Their numbers improve, Pitt’s get a bit of a bump. Every little bit helps.