The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are coming to Heinz Field this Saturday in an attempt to continue the craziness that is the ACC Coastal Division this season. Everyone in the division is 2-1, 2-2, or 1-2. That means each team is still within one game of first place. There are scenarios in which the entire division goes 4-4, a cluster%&#@ that would certainly make things interesting. A win this weekend and next will suddenly put Pitt in the driver’s seat to take the division.

Two weeks ago, Georgia Tech was ranked and had Duke, a team they hadn’t lost to in ten years, coming to town. That streak finally ended when Duke controlled the tempo from the opening kickoff and the game was not as close as the 31-25 final score indicates. GT followed that up by allowing North Carolina to drop 48 points on their defense in a loss. The Yellow Jackets defense has been the Achilles heel this season; it has allowed 30 points per game over their past four and even let Georgia Southern score 38 earlier in the season.

The offense, however, is firing on all cylinders. In fact, GT has more passing yards and touchdowns than Pitt right now to go along with their 5^th in the nation rushing offense. A 34.4 point per game average and no fewer than 25 points in any game shows how dangerous Paul Johnson’s vaunted triple option offense is this season. Matt House’s defense, currently 14^th in points per game, needs to be up for the challenge.

The first wrinkle Pitt’s defense is going to present is a change at MLB. It was announced that Nicholas Grigsby and Bam Bradley will alternate at MLB, meaning sophomore Matt Galambos will mostly be on the sidelines Saturday. The MLB is generally responsible for the FB dive portion of the offense, a job made easier by the injury to Zach Laskey (GT calls this position the B-Back). Laskey may be replaced by true freshman C.J. Leggett, a former Pitt target. By rotating the two veterans, it helps both stay fresh against a punishing rushing attack

If Pitt is going to stop GT’s offense, Todd Thomas and the starting cornerbacks, Lafayette Pitts and Reggie Mitchell, are going to need to play a great game. Thomas had 21 tackles against Navy and GT last year and another big game will help. The CBs need to play well because they’re going to be on an island without much safety help most of the game. Against GT last year, the dagger was a 42 yard completion on 3^rd and 17 late in the 4^th quarter. That set up a touchdown to make it 21-10 and the two score lead proved too much to overcome. This season GT WRs DeAndre Smelter and Darren Waller have six receptions of 30+ yards and three beyond 50. Mitchell and Pitts need to avoid the deep pass play that has been the defense’s kryptonite this season.

Overall, the key to stopping GT’s offense is to prevent them from getting into a rhythm. Against Miami, GT had touchdown drives of 8, 9, 13 and 13. Those four drives ate up over 23 minutes of game clock. The Yellow Jackets had a 2:1 time of possession advantage. Miami only had the ball three times in the second half. See the point? Miami barely had a chance to score against the porous GT defense because the offense dominated the clock. Once the offense gets into a rhythm, the Yellow Jackets will eat up the clock and open up the big play passing game with all eyes playing the run.

As mentioned previously, GT’s defense is not on the same level as the offense. The 80^th ranked defense allows 28.3 points per game and 187.9 rushing yards per game on a terrible 5.3 yards per carry. These three numbers bode well for a Pitt offense that struggles to put up points but runs the ball well. Not only will James Conner have the opportunity to do well, Chad Voytik’s legs can too. Against Duke and UNC, GT gave up 132 yards and 3 TDs to QB runs.

With the passing game, it’s hard to predict anything beyond Tyler Boyd will do something special. Manasseh Garner has been inconsistent at best, Voytik rarely looks the direction of a TE, and the rest of the WRs either aren’t ready or aren’t better than Garner. The two big concerns are three and outs and turnovers. With three and outs, the defense doesn’t get time to rest and GT’s offense has more opportunities to get into a groove. Turnovers are obviously always bad, but the Yellow Jackets defense has relied heavily on them. When the turnovers don’t come, like only one against Duke and UNC combined, the defense fails and GT loses.

Georgia Tech, like every other opponent, will focus on stopping James Conner. When the offense added a read option wrinkle against VT, the Hokies were unprepared and Voytik made them pay. GT won’t make the same mistake, but don’t expect Chryst to remove it from the playbook entirely. In Pitt’s offense, the read option works like a play action pass; it’s most effective when the running game is working. If Conner gets going, especially out of shotgun draw plays, the read option will be there. Even if Voytik never keeps the ball, by forcing the defense to account for it, Conner has a split second more to get going.

If one stat (other than turnovers) will decide this game, it will be third down conversions. Pitt’s defense is 7^th in the nation; GT’s offense is 1^st. This is a classic strength against strength battle and if Pitt wins here, it’ll be very difficult for GT to score at the rate they have all season. On the flip side, Pitt’s offense is 58^th and GT’s defense is 118^th, meaning Pitt is good enough on third downs to exploit this weakness.

Prediction: Matt House’s defense continues to be greater than the sum of its parts and keeps the Yellow Jackets in line plus two turnovers that set the offense up with short fields. James Conner ends his three game drought without a 100+ yard rushing day and Pitt wins 24-20.