(Before any statisticians or math majors get excited and start ripping this apart please realize this is done for fun and researched as well as I could with the internet resources available.)
Last week we put up an article titled Past PITT QBs’ Ground Games exploring how well PITT’s recent quarterback’s could run when they actually tucked in the ball and tried to get positive yardage. We did that because at present we are having a lively discussion of PITT’s current QB, Chad Voytik, and his strengths and weakness in the position. I think it’s safe to say that we all recognize that running the ball is perhaps the greatest strength he has at this point.
In writing that article and looking back over the numerous and lengthy debates we have had on here about how ‘good’ or ‘bad’ a QB was for us I wondered that because it is so subjective an issue there must be a way to at least compare QBs in a somewhat standard way.
To start I chose to go back to Alex Van Pelt, because he was so good for us, then to Rod Rutherford and all our major starters since then; Tyler Palko, Bill Stull, Tino Sunseri and now Chad Voytik. I included Tom Savage in the initial comparisons even though he had a short one season stint with us.
The first thing I had to address was exactly how to show the QB’s side by side measurements. We have all seen the “QB Rating” numbers at the end of a player’s box score after the game but do we really know what that means? I didn’t realize there was more than one way of numerically rating a QB’s performance, but there is.
Background of the Ratings
First let’s take a look at how many there are, how they are generated and differ and then look how they apply to PITT’s past QBs. The one we are most familiar with is probably the NCAA’s simplistic five entry formula which takes into account Attempts, Completions, Yards, Touchdown Passes and Interceptions. It looks like this pre-entry:
| Att: | Number of passes attempted (must be greater than zero). |
| Comp: | Number of passes completed (must be between zero and attempts). |
| Yards: | Number of yards passing. |
| TD: | Number of passes for touchdowns (must be between zero and completions). |
| INT: | Number of passes intercepted (must be between zero and [attempts minus completions]). |
Here is the actual computation device if you are interested.
So, if we want to see in a numerical value of how Chad Voytik did against Virginia Cavaliers last week we plug in this info: 16 for 30, 195 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs and we comes out with an NCAA rating score of 123.27.
But wait! There’s more! Back in August of 2011 the broadcasting monster ESPN wanted a separate rating system that they could call their own which would take into account some other factors of the QB’s play during the game; in essence they were trying to do the fan’s thinking for them. They named it “Total Quarterback Rating” or “Total QBR”. I think it was pretty innovative.
Here is the site for the official ESPN TQBR and their in-depth explanation of what it entails and here is a quick quote describing it:
Unlike NCAA Passer Efficiency, which uses only box score statistics, Total QBR accounts for what a quarterback does on a play-by-play level, meaning it accounts for down, distance, field position, as well as the clock and score.
A 5-yard gain on third-and-4 is a good play, whereas a 5-yard gain on third-and-14 isn’t. A 20-yard touchdown pass when tied in the second quarter means more than a 20-yard touchdown pass when down 30 points late in the fourth quarter. QBR accounts for those things using analysis that turns traditional productivity into points on the scoreboard and wins in the standings.
It also accounts for a quarterback’s ability to scramble, his ability to run on designed rush plays, how well he avoids sacks, drawing and committing penalties, and all-important fumbles, which can be significant for quarterbacks.
Just like ESPN not to be able to keep things simple, their Total QBR is broken down into two separate ratings: Opponent-Adjusted QBR or “Adjusted QBR” – and in a form that doesn’t adjust for defense, often called Raw QBR or “Unadjusted QBR.” We’ll use ‘Adjusted’ because that seems sexier.
What does it mean to us?
Let’s now look at the last six QBs we have had play, for any decent number of snaps, and we’ll see how they stack up against each other. For this we’ll use both of the ratings, NCAA first, then add TQBR in a separate table, for our past QB comparisons (red is best).
| QB | GP | ATT | COMP | % | YDS | YPA | YPC | TDs | INTs | Rat | NCAA |
| Van Pelt | 46 | 1583 | 865 | 55.0% | 11267 | 7.1 | 13.0 | 66 | 60 | 0.9 | 120.6 |
| Marino | 44 | 1204 | 693 | 57.6% | 8597 | 7.1 | 12.4 | 79 | 69 | 0.9 | 127.7 |
| Sunseri | 44 | 1141 | 736 | 64.5% | 8590 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 49 | 23 | 2.1 | 137.9 |
| Palko | 43 | 1075 | 645 | 60.0% | 8343 | 7.8 | 12.9 | 66 | 25 | 2.6 | 140.8 |
| Rutherford | 46 | 842 | 458 | 54.4% | 6724 | 8.0 | 14.6 | 60 | 30 | 2.0 | 137.9 |
Now taking all those offensive stats listed above for our QBs here is the ESPN Total Quarterback Rating (TQBR ‘adjusted’) for comparison. Note: Marino, Rutherford, and, for some reason Bill Stull, had no ‘game logs’ thus no TQBRs listed:
| QB | GP | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | TQBR- Career | NCAA-Career |
| Palko | 43 | 41.1 | 50.9 | 65.5 | 52.5 | 140.8 | |
| Sunseri | 44 | 49.2 | 66.5 | 41.1 | 53.8 | 52.2 | 137.9 |
| Savage | 13 | 60.8 | 60.8 | 138.2 | |||
| Voytik | 10 | 31.7 | 63.9 | 50.9 | 127.2 |
Now, just for the fun of it here is the comparison of our Top 5 QB’s ranked in terms of passing yardage, NCAA ratings only as I don’t have TQBR for the older guys (Note: “Rat” is the TD:INT ratio):
| QB | GP | ATT | COMP | % | YDS | YPA | YPC | TDs | INTs | Rat | NCAA |
| Van Pelt | 46 | 1583 | 865 | 55.0% | 11267 | 7.1 | 13.0 | 66 | 60 | 0.9 | 120.61 |
| Marino | 44 | 1204 | 693 | 57.6% | 8597 | 7.1 | 12.4 | 79 | 69 | 0.9 | 127.7 |
| Sunseri | 44 | 1141 | 736 | 64.5% | 8590 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 49 | 23 | 2.1 | 137.9 |
| Palko | 43 | 1075 | 645 | 60.0% | 8343 | 7.8 | 12.9 | 66 | 25 | 2.6 | 140.8 |
| Rutherford | 46 | 842 | 458 | 54.4% | 6724 | 8.0 | 14.6 | 60 | 30 | 2.0 | 137.9 |
***Late Entry – Here is an interesting stat from the website, Sports-Reference College Football, measuring “Yards Per Attempt” (YPA) vs “Actual Yards Per Attempt” (AY/A) which takes into account a weighing formula that rewards for TD passes and penalizes for INTs. The formula is AY/A = (YDS+20*TD – 45*INT/ATT). Here are the results listing the best AY/A to the worst:
| QB | Games Played | YPA | AY/A | (+ or -) |
| Palko | 43 | 7.8 | 7.9 | (+) .1 |
| Rutherford | 46 | 8.0 | 7.8 | (-) .2 |
| Savage | 13 | 7.6 | 7.6 | Even |
| Sunseri | 44 | 7.5 | 7.5 | Even |
| Stull | 31 | 7.7 | 7.5 | (-) .2 |
| Van Pelt | 46 | 7.5 | 6.5 | (-) 1.0 |
| Voytik | 10 | 6.6 | 6.2 | (-) .4 |
| Marino | 44 | 7.1 | 5.9 | (-) 1.3 |
Lots of different info and stats. It is kind of interesting to see just how close our QBs are to each other in pure statistical production. Of course this doesn’t, and can’t, address leadership and other intangibles that a successful QB needs to have.
Personally, I differ in my opinion of Dan Marino as a great college QB than most PITT fans hold. I feel like he had the perhaps best college team of all time surrounding him, certainly the best offensive line in PITT’s, and probably the NCAA’s, history and he still did somewhat less than a Superstar’s job (IMO). Put him behind our recent OLs and surround him with our recent talents and he’d have been a good, but not great, college QB.
Then again, put him on our current teams and we may be going 11-1 every year. Who knows?
That is totally subjective on my part but looking at the stats you can see that even with that great supporting cast he had around him his production was on par or even below other PITT QBs. Hey, what exactly are we supposed to think when Sunseri was only seven yards behind Marino in total passing yards with the same amount of games but 63 less attempts, and he’s +10 in the NCAA ratings also…
It isn’t like it was a ‘different game then’ either. Marino had 27.4 attempts per game, more than both Palko and Sunseri. But that’s what our individual perceptions are… and I’ve stirred the pot enough.
(^^ Conversation starter guys, don’t have heart attacks over your coffee)
What does this actually mean to you fans and will it change our opinions about how we have looked at and felt about our QBs? I’m not sure it will but why not weigh in on what all of this means to you?
Seems like there was some sort of conspiracy among FSU, PSU (CVS) and Vanderbilt and the NCAA.
Each with parts of a rape crime involving players, coaches that knew or participated (Sandusky) and even helped the crimes be covered up and then even stretching to the higher ups at the given universities.
Franklin and the FSU pres. get shuffled out of town to Creepy Valley State (much like when college coaches on the hotseat for violations shuffle off to the NFL and escape penalties (see Pete Carroll)). And then they reward Creepy Valley State for taking in Franklin and the FSU president before they have to face the fire at their respective universities. The payoff for Pedo State doing this is; the NCAA further reduces their previous penalties for the Sandusky abomination and reinstates them for bowl games EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.
Which is unprecedented.
Any honest investigative journalist, who is not afraid… want to dig deeper into this ?
Meanwhile, I don’t know if Spanier, Curley or Shultz will ever stand trial … they keep getting extensions for charges of over 2 years ago.
Oy vey is this league sad. Game at Tulane looks to be about 15,000 stiffs at game. Really bush league look and feel to it.
Uconn is so bad, like their qb is worse than tiny.
162 total yards late 4rth and 3 points against Tulane.
We are so so lucky to get the gig in the ACC.
Thank you again Mr. Gene DeFilippo.
Earlier I’ve said that it was pretty obvious that CV was going to be the starter soon after the bowl game ended. That was based on two things – one was that he was the 2nd string QB for all of 2013 and also that Anderson kept re-injuring that tendonitis in his right wrist over that same time period and kept missing practice sessions going back to 2012. I’m sure Voytik’s HS ranking had some impact also.
But the point is that there was never any real doubt in anyone’s mind that Voytik would succeed Savage this season.
You all pretty much know how upset I was that DW came out publicly and announced “It is Tino’s time” and not having any sort of real competition with Pat Bostick for the starting job:
Junior wide receiver Jon Baldwin and senior defensive lineman Greg Romeus, both Wannstedt’s recruited talent, will serve as leaders for a Panther team that will lack that veteran quality at the quarterback position.
Nevertheless, Wannstedt has faith in his young arms, particularly that of Tino Sunseri. “This is Tino’s time,” Wannstedt said in the opening days of training camp. “You combine his intangible assets with his athletic ability and intelligence, Tino is going to have a good year.”
That camp Sunseri took every QB1 snap at every practice.
That wasn’t the case this season with Chryst. He did give both QBs ample time to show what they could do and ran a competition that, while it might have been obvious who would win, still showed the two kids and everyone else on the team that you have to ‘win’ the right to be a starter.
My opinions are my own but when I watched these two, Voytik and Anderson, in practices and a scrimmage I didn’t think there was a big gap in talent between the two out on the field and also saw what was a pretty even rate of success of plays.
Playing junior psychologist I believe that Voytik’s not seizing the day and really separating himself at the fall camp carried over a bit to the opener and his play since. I don’t think he’s having major problems in this area, his actual execution of the plays is more evident in my opinion.
It’s more like he’s not got the 100% confidence in himself to consistently play at a positive and even keel. When that happens it is hard to turn it around.
I believe we saw that with Sunseri over his 1st two years then when things started going his way with Chryst and Rudolph in 2010 his confidence in himself and his production improved. So, I hold out hope that Voytik will have that same change of course, as soon as possible please, to better play.
It is hard for me to look at what Voytik has done so far and not want him to remain the starter because along with his average to below average play he’s also done some very good things out there. They are just few and far between and that doesn’t instill great confidence on the fan’s part that he can turn things around.
All that said, He’s the starter for the rest of the year, I think Chryst made that pretty clear in his last interviews.
Q. A lot of bloggers (Gee – wonder who?) and websites say that the reason it took (so long) voytik to be named the starter was cause the competition was actually closer that it should have been. any truth to this?
A. Sam Werner: I think so. It was no secret heading into camp that Voytik was about a 99 percent favorite to win the starting job, but he didn’t run away with it in camp by any means. He certainly showed progress from spring into the summer, but still had some good days and bad days in training camp (as did Trey Anderson). Voytik ended training camp as the better option of the two, no doubt, but it would have been very interesting if, say, Tra’von Chapman had stuck at Pitt whether or not he would’ve seized the job.
Also, do you think that since Anderson shared in the practice snaps during spring and pre-season practice, we will see him on the field soon if CV continues to struggle?
BTW, I was at a tailgate before the Iowa game and there were some type of officials roaming around to see if everyone drinking was 21. Is this a new policy or has this been going on … not sure I’ve seen it previously.
Also, I thought that WVU was seeing less rowdiness and less arrests once they started selling beer in the stadium – that it cut down on pre-game hard liquor consumption.
I still think it is bush league and arrogant as hell to sell booze in the club seats – where the school has already extorted ‘donations’ – then not sell beer to adults elsewhere in the stadium.
If you are going to discriminate anyway, why not sell beer anywhere but the student section – and force them to buy regular season tickets if they want to drink?
Engineer – I’ll disagree on his arm strength. On passes any longer than 15 yards or so he has to put arc on the ball which does two things; gets to the receiver more slowly – hence we see balls thrown behind the receivers forcing them to stop or reach behind so that gives the DBs a chance to close faster and make the tackle.
This is why we are questioning his accuracy also, because had he the ability to throw those deeper outs and crossing patterns on a line he’d be hitting the receivers in stride more. It is very hard to ‘lead’ a receiver if you have to arc the ball to them.
That is also why we are seeing almost no yards after the catch on downfield completions, only yac on the short passes. Forget the long ball at all with him. He has to almost literally stop and windup to get the ball any length.
Take a look at the videos of his better completions over the 1st half of the season – almost every pass of any length is as described…(click on the game’s score then click on “videos” in the boxes near the top of the page):
Here is an excellent example of what I mean above. This 13 yard pass to Boyd, while completed, is arced and forces Boyd to stutter step to catch it. Had he been lead properly he could easily have turn the corner and gone down the sideline for more yards. As it is he had to turn into the hash marks and try to get past three defenders and got only 24 yards total when it could have been way more.
At first glance a great play but when really looked at shows how it could be better done by the QB. Most of his completions are the same way and his incompletions, unless just badly thrown, are due to this also. That how a QB turns 6.6 yards per attempt into 7.6 or 8.6 which is an indicator of QBs being more accurate.
His arm strength isn’t terrible but I’d say it is at best average, maybe just that, at this level – with a few better throws happening every so often. Will confidence help that – I think what will happen is as he gets better in all the aspects of playing QB he’ll find himself time to set and throw better, quicker and more accurately, as you say and that will in turn make up for what every arm strength he may lack.
I predicted preseason that Pitt’s fortunes would be tied directly to CV’s performances and so far that’s the way it’s been. No change in that story for the remainder of this season.
@pittisit37, your quote, “only see one team that is a close to guaranteed victory. that being syracuse. and even that is a crapshoot.” must have been written tongue in cheek, yes? Once again I refer to the Akron game, this team has demonstrated that there are no guarantees this season for Pitt. However I would agree that the remainder of the games are all crap shoots. 6-6 seems about right to me but I have no idea what teams Pitt decides to show up for. We could just as easily lose to Syracuse and beat Duke as visa versa and Va Tech scares the hell out of me while I anticipate we $hit the bed as Pitt is so apt to do, then all of a sudden Pitt plays lights out blows Va Tech out yet again and we start wondering if the Panthers can turn their season around. That’s a crap shoot for sure and so typical SOP!
It’s sad that we’re in this position again though. I’ve seen no improvement from Coach Chryst, the only improvement, a roster with fewer holes, is really just a product of him being 3 years in. I’m interested to read Reed’s MMQ mid-season review.
But in general, I agree with you, Coach’s lack of ingenuity on offense is boring me. With Voytik’s natural running ability, he would be a the OB for the option play to a trailing Ibrahim or Chris James. Wouldn’t it be a breath of fresh air to see a WR pass like we got pulled on us by UVA too? A double reverse out of the now anticipated Boyd jet sweep would be an imaginative addition to the gameplan also. Ronald Jones would be the perfect guy for both of these plays, wasn’t he a HS QB and I seem to remember him passing for a TD in a game while Graham was the coach too. Time for some trickeration!
I’d love to see us come out in our first possession throwing against VT, that would definitely break the Pitt tendency of our run 1st offensive mentality.
Should be up late tonight or tomorrow early.
Doesn’t get enough credit from the announcers for putting this pass in a spot where only Boyd can catch it.
Nice it was a great catch by Boyd, but it was also a ‘great’ play by Voytik. Dare say Montana like.
This is Fran Tarkenton like.
1) Voytik is not in the pocket
2) Has the ability to create something out of nothing.
Which we have to go back to at least Palko, as to when we had a QB who created something out of nothing.
When you see plays like the two above, you can obviously see that Voytik has the talent to be a good D1 QB. How could you not.
Voytik’s best passes always seem to come on the hurry up, but an up-tempo offense conflicts with our focus on ball control and time of possession.
Reed, no doubt it’s a hard one. I certainly wind up all over the place.
This is just a fantastic play by Voytik and the announcers act like it’s commonplace.
I know Chad isn’t related to any folks that have played college ball or the NFL previously or coached in them, but this is ridiculous.
Voytik would be dynamic in the spread offense.
Which is what he was recruited by Graham to play.
Those 2 plays above are just as good as any that Johnny Football made 2 years ago winning the Heisman.
You know, this kid makes you really want you see him succeed. And I sincerely do.
Just have seen nothing to say he will.
Chryst standing by him. As previously posted… with Chryst, LOYALTY REIGNS SUPREME.
But another bad outing by Voytik against VaTech will almost certainly mean giving Trey Anderson a series or two to show if he can take advantage of AT LEAST A FEW of the “options” that Chryst’s Offense presents.
Bertke next year will start… and FINALLY we’ll get a glimpse of what a Chryst Offense can do.
