It’s been rough couple weeks for Pitt. The losses to Syracuse and Duke. The aching misery of the Virginia game. Two OT wins that almost felt like losses because of the competition. Compound that with Talib Zanna and Lamar Patterson battling injuries.
Of course it could all wash away with a stirring victory over the #1 team in the country tonight.
We still don’t know the nature of Patterson’s thumb injury. Just that he is sitting out practices and that Pattterson has claimed that it won’t need surgery.
“We’ll see. He hasn’t been put in a game-like situation, so you never know,” Dixon said of Patterson’s thumb. “It feels good when he is walking around and having lunch, but playing in a game is a little different deal, so we will have to see.”
Oh, good. I was afraid the situation might be nebulous or something.
As for Zanna, he is getting better. He was a little more mobile on Saturday. He is needed because Pitt’s rebounding has suffered, and we all know where Coach Dixon likes to point out is a problem when Pitt is struggling.
Dixon demands a plus-10 margin from his Panthers.
“The thing that sticks out to me is the rebounding part,” Dixon said. “We’re not getting it done in that area. Talib’s not where we want him to be — and I’ve got to play some of the other big guys, too. That’s something I’ve recognized, as well.”
After leading the ACC in rebounding earlier this season, Pitt has dropped to second in rebounding margin (plus-6.5). The Panthers have been outrebounded by an average margin of 6.8 the past four games, giving up 17 offensive boards to Miami and Virginia Tech.
“We normally don’t lose on the glass,” Pitt shooting guard Cameron Wright said. “You’ve just got to go out and do it.”
The offensive rebounding allowed to other teams has been the big standout in the struggles. Letting teams get those extra chances have been a big part of having to play 3 OTs in the last 2 games. Miami and VT aren’t good shooting teams, but keep giving them more shots and eventually some have to fall.
Syracuse doesn’t rebound as well, especially with their zone. But they are a much better shooting team, much more skill.
One of the things, perhaps even more than the rebounding, that Pitt needs to do is shoot better. If Zanna is feeling better with his ankle, the potential for him to have a big game in the middle of the Syracuse zone is huge. That is as long as he finishes. In these struggle games (and the loss at Syracuse), Pitt seemingly has left a slew of shots short. Bunnies. Missed lay-ups. Just shots from close range that are only drawing iron. Finish inside. Take advantage of the soft spots in the zone and the rebounding issue is also reduced.
Finishing inside also opens the perimeter for penetration. Syracuse will pack it in even more so than usual with their 2-3 zone. Daring. Tempting Pitt to take 3s. But if Pitt is able to move the ball to the inside guys. Get the passes right and Zanna (and god-willing he finally snaps out of his funk) Mike Young are finishing, then the guards have to extend the zone to cut off passing lanes more. Giving the guards more of a chance to attack. Things that are better for Cam Wright, Jamel Artis, James Robinson and Josh Newkirk.
I will say that I have come to enjoy the cranky grandpa role that Syracuse Coach Jim Boeheim has been playing to the hilt the last few years. Here’s his response to why Syracuse has had such trouble beating Pitt at the Pete.
“You know why? Because they’re good,” Boeheim said. “That’s really hard to figure out. They won the most games in the Big East, if you recall, in the last 10 years. Teams are good at home. They’re good at home. Not many people win at Duke, either. You know why? Because they’re good.”
It is a rather simple, rational answer delivered with such withering contempt.
Then there is the storyline which I think most Pitt fans are grimly aware. The lack of wins against a top-25 team. And by “lack of,” I mean not a one.
Because Wednesday presents an interesting and unique opportunity for the Panthers, and not only because they’re hosting an opponent that received all 65 first-place votes in this week’s AP poll. That’s part of it, sure, because it’s always cool when the nation’s No. 1 team visits your campus, especially when that team is coached by a Hall of Famer. But this is also big because it’s Pitt’s final opportunity before the ACC tournament to record a win over a school currently ranked in the top 25 of the AP poll or top 35 of the RPI, and if the Panthers don’t record that win then the narrative surrounding them will intensify in a negative way.
You know the narrative, right?
It’s that Pitt can’t beat good teams.
In fairness, it’s an unfair narrative considering Pitt has A) historically been terrific at beating good teams, and B) already played No. 1 Syracuse, No. 10 Cincinnati and No. 17 Virginia to the final minute and could’ve theoretically won any or all of those games. But details don’t matter much when it comes to narratives — just ask, say, Peyton Manning — and, either way, the bottom line remains the bottom line, and that bottom line is this: Pitt won’t change the minds of its skeptics until the Panthers record their first top-40 win of the season.
“Now you’re saying top 40; last week you were saying top-50,” joked Pitt coach Jamie Dixon when we spoke by phone Tuesday, his point being that the standard apparently shifted once the Stanford team his Panthers beat in November moved to 44th in the RPI recently.
“I know the game you’re playing,” Dixon added with a laugh. “But I’m aware of the numbers.”
…
So, to recap, there’s a massive ACC showdown scheduled for Wednesday, and, contrary to what some might tell you, it’s going to originate from Pittsburgh, not Chapel Hill. Oh, sure, Duke-UNC will likely be great, and I can’t wait for it, either. But the Syracuse-Pitt game set to tip two hours earlier is the one that’ll probably have college basketball fans talking.If Pitt wins, the Panthers will be validated, and Syracuse’s quest for a perfect regular season will be over. But if Pitt loses, those yelling that the Panthers “haven’t beaten anybody” will almost certainly start yelling louder, and Dixon’s team would then be completely out of opportunities to shut them up until the ACC tournament tips next month.
Which is frustrating for Pitt and the fans, but should be really embarrassing for the ACC as a whole with that reality. To have that many mediocre or worse teams in the conference. The middle is so soft right now.
I just think Syracuse has too many weapons, and we are too banged up.
I’d love to be proved wrong.
Newkirk, Robinson and Wright need to hit a couple jumpers. I also wouldn’t mind it if Dixon gave Artis and Young the green light to shoot an open three.
I hope the bookmakers know something we don’t.
The bookies are rarely wrong.
We still need to hit open shots (we seem to do so more at home), Zanna and Young need to finish, and of course rebound.
With Patterson’s injury and our limited threats from outside, we need to score in the paint, plain and simple. Stop the double clutching and the high banks off the board and go to the rim! Send it in, please!
Let’s Go Pitt!!!
But I don’t think it’s an easy choice…….
I think using him at the high post would be a good idea if he had reliable options to kick it out to for perimeter shots or anybody who could finish from one of his dishes down low.
But with this team’s offensive limitations, I’m not sure you can flash Patterson to the high post often and still get him enough touches. If he’s in there for most of the offensive game and they don’t get it in there enough, you will be depending on Robinson, Wright and Newkirk to be creative enough on the perimeter to beat the zone.
Flashing Nasir around inside a zone made sense; he was useless from the perimeter. I’m all for Patterson ducking in there from time to time, but playing him at the 4 and camping him inside the zone is going to hurt on the boards and maybe short circuit what little offense they have.
“Getting a ticket to a Duke-North Carolina game usually requires a sizable bank account withdrawal, but tickets to the first meeting between the rivals this season are the cheapest in at least five years.”
i’m optimistic this thumb thing was overblown and he’s able to shoot.
hugh green, Patterson played the worst game of his career by far that’s why the thumb injury looms large.
If Patterson is shooting fine, then I’d leave him where he was last Cuse game. If his shot is the least bit bothered by his thumb, then you definitely move him to the 4.
Thanks for Busting My Chops. Always fun.
But I think DiPaola was the first to confirm Douglas… as a long-time Pitt Beat Writer should.
Who knows, a little encouragement might cause DiPaola to get on the phone more often rather than just regurgitating a few News Conferemce quotes?
The Pitt Program and the Fan Base (aka Us) would stand to benefit.
Last Saturday, I pulled them out of the hamper to wear for the 5th time during the VT game. Of course, that is when my wife decides to do the laundry. So, they missed getting washed. This morning I grabbed them back out of the hamper and now they are on for the 6th time since last being washed.
What I do for my team. Anyhow, the magic “blue and gold boxers” are on for tonight’s game.
H2P
If I had to put money, I’d say it’s 33% we blow them out and 66% they blow us out. Being honest and taking all of the factors in play.
One thing is for sure, if we lose tonight– the UNC game becomes, IMO, the first “must win” game of the year. We simply have no equity with the national media and a win in Chapel Hill will be helpful come mid March.
Here’s hoping we win the next two and making this all a mute point…
– If DiPaolo et.al. were truly beat writers, they would have reported that Pitt was actually SEEKING a DB coach in the first place. As far a I know, Pitt’s interest in Douglas was the first time hiring a DB coach was ever reported.
– I think the Panthers will scrap tonite. Possible ways they win: 1) Patterson is healthy and goes off, 2)Syracuse is as cold as the packed ice in my driveway, 3)Syracuse gets in foul trouble, 4) Artis goes 4-5 from behind the line, 5) some combo of 1-4. H2P…
The Beat Writer’s newspaper column is entirely fact-based with no opinion or speculation, whereas his blog or tweet is not necessarily so. Opinion based coumns are for people like Ron Cook who are not connected to any team.
A beat writer who has to be with the coaches and players day after day has to create a level of trust with the team he is covering.
As to offensive rebounding, our guys need to be in position to rebound. Many times in the last game there were 3 Hokies around the rim and no panthers closer than the top of the key. No wonder we got few offensive rebounds.
I think just the opposite. Pitt will win but it will be very close.
First half of the season Pitt wins big or loses squeakers (Cincinnati, Syracuse, Virginia). Second half Pitt looses big (Duke) or wins squeakers (Miami, VT, and now Syracuse).
H2P
So far we have won every time that I have worn them. There is no way they are in the hamper or my drawer during any future games.
H2P
Lehigh over American (Not likely)
Duquesne over Richmond (It’s hard to see the Dukes pulling out a win, even at home)
Penn State over Indiana (Not likely)
Albany over Maryland-Baltimore County (Albany could win a close game on the road)
Texas Tech over Oklahoma (Not likely)
Stanford over Washington (Stanford could get another road win)
Fresno State over Nevada (In Reno, might be close)
And Pitt beating Syracuse sure would help.
Paul Zeise is PG Pitt beat writer for men’s BB, and was pedecessor to Werner until his son received an offer from PC.
So my suggestion to Dixon concerning Patterson, hold him back from the dinner table tonight so that he’ll be good and hungry come game time, then send him out on the court with the task of eating Syracuse’s “lunch” and hope that his thumb continues to feel fine!
Hail to Pitt!
The two games this week will define the season, need to win at least one or the NIT may be in sight.
Back in circa ’78, I lost $440 on a Pitt-ND game when Joe Montana engineered a big 4th quarter comeback …. and ended up losing nearly 2 grand that year (I was a couple years out of college then and couldn’t really afford it.) That pretty much cured me and never bet much after that … except first time I went to Atlantic City when I dropped a few hundred within an hour.
With all of the times I’ve been to the North Shore, I only have been to the casino once .. and spent no time at the craps table.
I, on the other hand, am a major player at the $5 blackjack table. 🙂
H2P
Comment by Dan 02.12.14 @ 2:37 pm
I second that. Great opportunity. I fear the thumb and ankle may present a critical mass on top of the ACL. Its the 3 young men… Its going to click for MY (he will find his flow) & JA will play better on the ball D (he just has too much desire to fail) & JN – i don’t know that we have had anyone quicker to the 50/50 ball or with the dribble – ever (he will show up tobacco road every chance he gets). They appear to be 3 good kids (& CJ deserves his thumb surgery & rehab) – if 2 of them shine at the same time (with a health LP & TZ) then you got to love them. Mixed bag. theres no place like home H2P
5Dimes.eu
Syr: +2.5
PITT: -2.5
O/U – 123.5
They must not watch much college hoops in Europe.
Sometimes good at over under, but not so much on results. I will predict that most rebounds occur under the rim as usual. If Patterson can’t shoot, he shouldn’t roam the “T”. If he can only pass, the orange will figure it out soon enough.
I do agree that all of the Pitt players need to go to the rack hard and draw fouls. Ennis is the key. Apparently he does not have a turnover in the last four minutes of a game this year. Odd stat, but I heard it on the radio. Pitt will only win with a concerted defensive effort. Carpe’ Orange!!
But to do that, they must rebound. Va Tech had 19 second chance points to Pitt’s 6 … Pitt usually wins this category but even if it broke even, we wouldn’t be fretting so much a 13 pt win.