Pitt heads down to the home of Coca Cola and a Delta hub, Atlanta, to face Georgia Tech (5-3, 4-2 ACC) in a battle for ACC mediocrity. This is actually a huge game for both teams because it’s needed for bowl eligibility. Georgia Tech has a tougher finish to the season than Pitt because if they lose, they’ll need to upset Clemson or Georgia to be bowl eligible. They have an easy win against Alabama A&M in there as well, but it won’t count towards bowl eligibility. Why? It’s due to playing Elon earlier in the season and only one FCS victory can count towards bowl eligibility. Pitt needs to win two of their last five and after losing to Navy last week, it’s obvious no game is a gimme.
After a solid 3-0 start to the season, which included in-conference victories over UNC and Duke, the Yellow Jackets dropped three straight to VT, Miami, and an underrated BYU squad. They’ve gotten back on track, especially defensively, the past two weeks. After allowing 83 combined points to Miami and BYU, they’ve only allowed 25 points the past two games. The offense has rolled consistently all season, scoring 28+ points in six of their eight games.
Georgia Tech runs the same triple option offense as Navy, which makes defensive preparation a lot easier. Obviously they’ll have different wrinkles and such, but the core concepts are the same: FB dives, options, the occasional pass, etc. GT certainly executes the offense well. They’re 4th in the country in rushing yards per game (315.6) and they’re scoring 35.9 points per game.
As with any triple option offense, there are a ton of moving parts you have to beware of. Fortunately for the defense, they were pretty effective against the run against Navy. Pitt’s defense really started to struggle when Navy mixed in more passing plays. On their first four drives, Navy attempted one pass on first and second down (the crazy deflection touchdown) and needed that fluke to score. After that, they began throwing the ball a bit more and had a lot more success.
I would expect Georgia Tech to try and do the same thing. Get the whole defense looking in the backfield then start hitting them in the air. Vad Lee, GT’s QB, has been wildly inconsistent in the air. The past five games, he went 25/65 (38% completion) for 503 yards 1 TDs and 5 INTs. Take out the Syracuse game (3/3 88 yards 1 TD) and his passing stats are even worse.
I’m fairly confident Pitt’s defense can limit the big plays on the ground, as they did against Navy (only one run over 11 yards). Georgia Tech will likely have to score off of medium sized gains on the ground or through the air. If they do get big gains on the ground, it’ll likely be with Lee or fullback David Sims. While Ezell and Donald are top notch DTs, you can scheme around them with the FB dive because it’s so quick and puts a lot of pressure on the MLB to make the play. Undersized true freshman Matt Galambos is likely starting there Saturday night due to an injury to Shane Gordon. This is a double advantage for Sims because inexperience means slow to make the play and undersized means he may not be able to make the tackle.
If Sims makes it through the line and past the MLB, there’s a lot of green space. There’s a reason he’s averaging 5.4 yards per carry–the FB dive is very effective when a defense is reacting as opposed to attacking. The other main threats on the ground are Zach Laskey and Robert Godhigh. Laskey has been on fire the past two games with 29 carries for 208 yards and 5 TDs. Godhigh is the big play threat with gains of 44, 48, and 65 on the season.
Overall, GT’s offense is much better across the board than Navy, except maybe at the QB position. While stats aren’t the be all end all, Reynolds has more rushing yards per game, more touchdowns, a better completion percentage, better yards per attempt on the ground and through the air, and fewer interceptions. There’s no competition at OL or skill positions though.
On defense, it’s very impressive that Georgia Tech is respectable after last season. They fired coordinator Al Groh in the middle of the season last year after a putrid start that included 40+ points allowed in six games. The turnaround from last season to this season has been astounding.
Boosted by the shutouts of Elon and Syracuse, Georgia Tech ranks 21st in the nation with its average of 19.9 points allowed. The Yellow Jackets rank third in the ACC and 17th in the nation in total defense, allowing 342.2 yards per game — their best average since 2009.
GT’s defense is led by senior DB Jemea Thomas, last week’s ACC defensive player of the week thanks to 12 solo tackles. I sayhe’s a DB because they play Thomas everywhere: CB, NB, and Safety. They’re averaging about two sacks per game, which is middle of the road, but still dangerous enough to worry about. They’re mediocre in pass defense as well, allowing 234 yards per game. Where they excel is run defense, where they’re allowingly only 121 yards per game, good for 20th in the nation. They aren’t forcing many turnovers however. They’re averaging only 1.3 turnovers forced per game, which is one of the worst in the nation (sadly, they’re tied with Pitt).
They key for the offense will be moving the ball throught he air. You’ve seen myself, Reed, and Chas criticize Savage for his short and medium throws but I will add he has improved dramatically the past few weeks there. Early in the season, he didn’t check down and he couldn’t find guys that weren’t his primary target.
Last week, he really started to find them, but he struggled with ball placement and velocity. His throws were a little off and he threw them too hard. He left two touchdowns and a lot of yards on the field on three throws, two to Garner (red zone and 20+ yard gain) and Street by putting the ball in the wrong spot. Two of those three were caught, but due to placement couldn’t get any additional yardage.
If Savage can find his guys like he did against Navy and put the ball in a better place, Pitt has a chance to score. If not, they’ll have to join Miami and BYU as the only offenses to move the ball on the ground, and Miami has a future NFL star in their backfield, so it’s not likely the ground game will look that great. If Pitt is to win this game, it’ll have to be through Savage or turnovers. If the passing game is good or the defense plays like they did against Virginia, Georgia Tech’s chances at a bowl game become slim to nil. If the passing game struggles or the defense doesn’t dominate, hello 4-4.
I don’t predict either of those things will happen. Georgia Tech wins 31-17.
Tom Savage’s accuracy and touch coupled with our ability to generate turnovers to stop key drives or score will decide the game.
I assume after Va Tech, the shorter passes became more of a focus. Is it possible that he is now not checking up (meaning not looking upfield for secondary receivers) since he has not thrown many (if any) long passes in the last 2 games?
To add to the complexity, depending on the offense, those check downs may change depending on which side of the field the safeties rotate to during the play or the blitzes that may be called.
Let’s hope Savage is too !
And Galambos takes his vitamins. (he going to be busy) GT’s RB’s are slightly faster than Navy, lol.
Savage is starting to improve.
We can beat the Techsters in Atlanta. They don’t have a great homefield advantage, of course the patrons will be more sauced than normal.
It’s all about playing aggressively both on offense and defense. It also tells your team you have confidence in them as a coach.
Then the team has a greater chance of playing with the big C.
You can do that on NFL All-22, which is just incredible. The skyline view of all plays makes it very easy for the trained eye to see the progression of a play. On TV, you can’t see most of what’s going on.
GT beats the spread wins by 17.
Wish it wasn’t so.
(unless of course you’re on us and your wagering)
Pitt is now +11
Money moving the line from +10
Thought that would be higher.
We’ve become a ‘mark’.
Much like our coach would be in NYC.
Obviously, PITT needs to stop the Tech Running Attack in order to have a chance to win.
My suggestion to House is to switch things up by putting TODD THOMAS in the Middle in place of GALAMBOS.
Last week against Navy, House had first Gordon and then Galambos lining up SEVEN YARDS off the line of scrimmage. The intent was to give them an angle to the outside that would allow them to stay beyond the reach of an O-Lineman.
Nice on paper. Poor in execution.
Problem was neither Gordon or Galambos were athletic enough and fast enough to make it work.
On the other hand, THOMAS is. He has the ability to cover the ground to make the play… and is certainly strong and aggressive enough to get the job done from the inside.
Also as an effort to increase the physicality of the Run-Stop Defense I would find ways to Bradley and Grigsby, if they’re healthy, involved.
The other option for House is obviously to stick with Galambos. However, instead of lining him SEVEN YARDS back, have the Middle Backer set up FIVE YARDS off the line of scrimmage and take your chances.
Last week, Gordon and especially Galambos both had difficulty covering the ground necessary in order to be position to make plays. Against the speedier Georgia Tech backfield that problem will be magnified… unless some adjustment is made.
This is a chance for House to look at his personnel and play to their strengths rather than forcing them to adjust to HIS scheme. This has been a problem all year and it started with Florida State.
12 quarters without an offensive TD
Fright night on ESPN: USF in 1st game; and game has Fraud Graham vs Mike Leech
Is Pitt capable of ‘adjusting’ and playing TT as MLB?
They are going to have to do something because GT has better athletes than Navy.
This one could get ugly in the second half if our offense goes through a lot of 3 and outs and our defense gets tired.
The DB’s need to be able to play man to man and boy would I like them to punish the WR in the 5 yard strike zone area. They need to punish the receivers to a point where they don’t want to block. Challenge their manhood and beat them down. I would be okay with a couple of personal fouls candidly, if the db’s give a message with their actions. That is how you beat the option. Beat up the receivers who block and have your dline and lb’s play disciplined. Break down the receivers manhood and it closes down the running game.
I re-read this and realized I ingested too much Halloween candy, but kept the post as is, because it is….interesting! I do think the game remains winnable, until such time as it is not.
I really felt like Pitt did enough to win in all aspects of the game…that is, until they didn’t. The offense moved and possessed the ball in the first half, completed a second half TD drive to take the lead…and then choked a 3 and out when the needed a couple first downs.
The D held up for much of the game…until they couldn’t get a stop on two long TD drives. Specials converted two FGs on a very windy day and pinned Navy back with positional kicks…until the 20 yarder.
Add it all up and we finally know what this team is. Just meh. It is the type of team that needs a coach who can will it or scheme it to an extra win or two during the season. 20 games in, I’m having my doubts that HCPC is that coach. In fact, he may be the opposite. I’ll save that for a different post.
This week Pitt really needs to find a way to keep Savage upright and open up the offense. Where the hell has Tyler Boyd been? Conner, if healthy, needs to play. I’d love to see them come out with a different look, different set, no huddle, just something to shake it up. Geez I’d even settle for passing on 1st down.
The defense needs to turn the ball over and frankly play with more emotion. Where IS the emotion? This team really does reflect its coach’s personality. They appear to be playing not to lose.
GT appears to have regained their mojo. Pitt could win this game, but I don’t see it. I just hope it doesn’t get ugly.
Tech 34 Pitt 16
Pitt looking ahead beyond GT? Players getting complacent and overconfident vs. Navy? Unbelievable! This team is not good enough to be overconfident, complacent, or looking beyond any opponent.
Pitt couldn’t beat Navy wil get wacked by GT. Give the points
take GT. Pitt’s bowl possibilities in deep trouble.
But you are correct, when he has the athletes, Fraud can coach. I think, aside from the money (and Penni’s relatives) the biggest factor for his departure was the realization that he could not procure the type of athletes at Pitt like he could do in the southwest.
Fraud sure as hell decided he didn’t want any part of that, therefore his exit on the Midnight Express.
Every story has 2 sides, we have yet to hear Fraud’s.
Maybe some day we will. Until then ASU has a high flying offense and we’re 94th ranked of 125 teams in Total Offense. And run 4-5 different plays a game.
Have a 2nd yr OC and a rookie DC. And don’t call for play reviews on crucial plays.
Something wrong with this picture.
