While I use the term “enemy” very loosely for this column, I refuse to call the Midshipmen enemies in any context. They’re men and women who are serving their country and deserve the utmost respect. They’re an opponent on the football field but remember to keep in context who they are. When their collegiate days are over, they’re serving their country and due to this, do not ever treat their players or fans with anything but respect. If you fail to do so, Reed will have you shipped to Guantanamo.

Save your booing for Notre Dame. I have no issues if people hurl insults at Notre Dame coaches, players and fans because they’re Notre Dame. K’wuan Williams did not interfere with Tyler Eifert, there should’ve been a penalty on the missed FG for two players with the same number, and I’m sick of you cheaters getting all the calls. Wait, where was I? Oh yeah, Navy game!

Navy is not having their best season. They’re 3-3 at the moment but they’re coming off of back to back losses to Duke (35-7) and Toledo (45-44 in double OT). The triple option is working (300+ rushing ypg, 6th in the country) but the defense is struggling (29 PPG allowed against FBS opponents and 80th in rushing yards allowed). This bodes well for the offense because one thing we can say for certain is that Pitt’s offense does not work unless the running game is successful. Even when Tom Savage was lighting up Duke’s defense, Conner and Bennett combined for 200+ yards on the ground.

One of the reasons Navy is struggling to stop the run is size. Their 3-4 defense has only one player heavier than 251 pounds, and that’s the nosetackle. It’s tough to be good in run defense when all but one of your front seven is outweighed by 60+ pounds. Obviously large bodies are tough to come by given that these young men are there to serve, not to play football. You won’t find many servicemen over 280 pounds. I for one would hate to share a submarine with a guy the size of Gabe Roberts. No offense Gabe, get well soon. Please don’t hurt me.

The past two weeks, both losses as I mentioned, have been especially ugly for the Navy run defense. Duke had 25 carries for 137 yards with their RBs (5 yards per carry) and Toledo’s top RB, David Fluellen, had 20 carries for 160 yards. That doesn’t include QB runs, which I don’t use since obviously Tom Savage is not going to run the ball unless it’s his only option. Expect to see a lot of running plays from Pitt for two reasons: 1) they should work and 2) long drives by the offense keeps the defense off of the field, especially important against Navy whose offense relies on wearing a defense down.

While the run defense is struggling, the pass defense has held their own. They’re allowing just a hair over 200 yards per game through the air with only a 9:7 touchdown:interception ratio and an impressive 6.7 yards per attempt. They were lit up by Duke QB Anthony Boone in his first game back from injury for 295 yards and 3 TDs. It’s possible Navy’s impressive stats are a product of inferior passing teams and allowing so many yards on the ground, limiting the need for opponents to pass.

Navy isn’t too hot on third downs either. Opponents are converting 56.16% of their third down opportunities, which makes them one of the worst in college football. Then there is one area of Navy’s defense that has to have Tom Savage doing backflips of joy. Navy is quite possibly the worst team in FBS football at sacking the QB. They sack the QB on less than 2% of dropbacks, which comes out to .6 sacks per game.

Like ODU, this is exactly what the doctor ordered for the offense. The offense started and ended slow against ODU, but overall produced the results necessary. It was the defense that was the problem. Pitt should be able to run the ball and Tom Savage should have plenty of time to find receivers. Hopefully Conner and Street can play because that will really open up the offense.

The main concern with Navy, as always, is their triple option offense. It’s very difficult to prepare for because it’s so dramatically different than any offense you’ll face. Passes are rare (they pass only 17% of the time). You’ll see the same formation and same setup numerous times, but the ball will go a different direction each time. Here’s a good wikipedia article on the setup. Navy will run a lot of the Wishbone and Veer type plays. 

I don’t want to get into the intricacies of it because that would take its own column, but the key to defense is job discipline. If you’re reaalllyy interested in a thorough breakdown, Warchant.com did a great job last year. There’s a lot of movement, a lot of fakes, and a lot of misdirection. The goal is to get a player to commit to something, then give the ball elsewhere. 

If the QB makes the correct reads, the offense can flourish. If he’s wrong, it can fail horribly. The duties fall on sophomore QB Keenan Reynolds. Without him, the offense, to put it blatantly, sucks. Reynolds had his worst game  of the season against Duke, which included a red zone turnover and a late interception. When he’s on, Navy can beat decent opponents. I have no doubt that if Reynolds has a good game, Navy can rack up 25-30 points on Pitt’s defense. Like ODU’s Taylor Heinicke, the offense flows through him. He may not pass a lot, but he’s still leading the offense.

The key to this game for Pitt will be control. Pitt’s offense needs to keep Navy’s triple option off of the field as much as possible. Navy is the type of offense that needs to get in a groove. They won’t have quick strikes often; they need to methodically march down the field. Their best win of the season, Indiana, is a great example. Navy had the ball for over 37 minutes; that’s 62% of the game. Against Duke and Western Kentucky, they lost the time of possession battle by a significant margin.

It works even more because the more time Navy’s offense is on the field, the less time their struggling defense is on it. If Pitt can get out to an early lead, Navy will struggle to come back. When Navy beat Pitt back in 2007, it was a back and forth affair. Neither sqaud ever held more than a one score lead. Get a lead, sustain long drives, and Navy will struggle to come back. If you let them stick around or get an early lead, they can take over.

I predict a high scoring, close game. I don’t have a lot of faith in Matt House right now in terms of game planning and in order to stop Navy, you have to game plan properly. However, I expect the offense, primarily the running game, to step up and win the shootout 38-34.