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April 23, 2013

A Semi-Defense of Lunatic Hoopies

Filed under: General Stupidity — Chas @ 8:16 pm

In the aftermath of the ACC Grant of Rights, it has been a lot of fun to take potshots at the numerous Hoopie message boarders and Twitiots who have spent the better part of a year flogging their sources for the imminent demise of the ACC.

The rumors and whispers of an ACC grant-of-rights have no basis in fact.

The beleaguered conference is not close to signing a grant-of-rights and discussions about one have been met with stiff internal resistance.

Internal resistance that my sources say could only be overcome by a significant increase in television money that puts the ACC on par with the Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12 and SEC.

Money like that could only come from a 24-hour ACC branded sports channel much like the Big 10 Network or the upcoming SEC Network and that doesn’t seem likely. Why not? Why shouldn’t the ACC, with perhaps the largest media footprint of any conference, be able to launch its own network?

It’s simple economics — ESPN won’t let them. ESPN owns the ACC’s tier 3 television rights (along with Raycom) and doesn’t want the ACC competing (in much the same markets) with the SEC channel set to debut in 2014.

I don’t think there was an ACC-based blog or twitter account that didn’t either get directly hit with this stuff or had to address it in some form from a reader for the past year.

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The Grant of Rights put in place by the ACC does not stop expansiopocolypse. It does, however, severely slow it down and minimize it. The movement in the next five to ten years will almost entirely be by conferences and programs below the Big Five.

Oh, sure, it’s possible at some point that the Big 12 feels it has no choice but to actually go to 12, at which time it goes for Cinci and BYU or some other team from the Mountain West (Boise St.). And it is conceivable that the Big Ten could go to Mizzou and say, yeah, come into our playground — since the SEC does not have any exit fees or penalties.

And, yes, there is always a chance that some program locked into a Grant of Rights might mount a legal challenge. But unlike a challenge to an exit fee like Maryland is engaged, losing the challenge to a Grant of Rights contract is much bigger. Even if a challenge to the ACC Grant of Rights came with five years left (2023), the potential loss by the school challenging is $100 million. Not many schools are going to make that gamble.

But that is about it. Things are relatively locked in right now. There will be no easy way for the major conferences to poach teams from each other while the Grant of Rights (GoR) are in place. The Big 12 is at 10. The Big Ten will be 14.

As usual there is more to the story than mere stability.

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