Pitt is off for the week. Taking those darn finals. Something about responsibility, education and schooling. I don’t know, seems odd.
In a previous post, I mentioned how the RPI and SOS numbers for Pitt’s non-con were rather bad. That plays a role in Pitt not being ranked. The other part of why Pitt isn’t getting ranked. Not only didn’t Pitt start the season ranked, last year happened (Insider subs.).
That being said, I can’t help feeling that Pitt, as so often happens with early-season rankings, is to some extent paying for the mistakes that we the voters committed all by ourselves in the preseason. Coming off a 5-13 season in the Big East, the Panthers were nowhere to be found in any of the various preseason top 25s for 2012-13. Throw in the fact that Dixon’s team has played only one ranked opponent to this point — they lost to Michigan 67-62 in Madison Square Garden on Thanksgiving eve — and you have a situation where our preconceived preseason notions with regard to Pitt have been more or less frozen in place.
I believe that’s a mistake. The Panthers are better than most observers expected in the preseason, and data point No. 1 here is losing by only five on a neutral floor to a team as good as the Wolverines.
That’s John Gasaway, most known for his work with Ken Pomeroy on the Basketball Prospectus. He’s very good with advanced basketball stats.
He explains a bit more:
If there’s one thing fans in Pittsburgh can set their watch by with this program, it’s outstanding offensive rebounding. Even last season, when the Panthers took a very uncharacteristic trip to the CBI (which, by the way, they won), this was still the No. 2 offensive rebounding team in Big East play (second only to West Virginia).
That tradition has continued this season, as Pitt has hauled down 41 percent of their missed shots. With Talib Zanna, Steven Adams and Dante Taylor, Dixon has the luxury of rotating three of the nation’s preeminent offensive rebounders on and off the floor as fouls and fatigue warrant.
What has changed dramatically this season, however, has been the Panthers’ ability to hang on to the ball. Last season this was Dixon’s largest single problem on offense, as his team gave the ball away on 23 percent of its possessions in 18 Big East games. This season that figure has dropped all the way down to 15 percent. Granted, the opponents haven’t always been particularly strong, but I’m not forecasting a huge jump in turnovers once Big East play begins.
Pitt’s three top players in terms of minutes are Tray Woodall, Lamar Patterson, and James Robinson, and all three of them appear to be very reliable with the ball. With Woodall and Patterson my characterization is based simply on their histories. (Woodall’s a senior, and Patterson’s a junior, and while Woodall did commit a few turnovers last season, I’m giving him a small evaluative pardon for playing the better part of 2011-12 while overcoming an abdominal injury.) As for Robinson, my expectations for his performance the rest of this season are based in part on my history looking at freshman point guards in December. Freshman point guards routinely pile up turnovers very early in their playing careers. Robinson, conversely, has shown no such inclination, and Dixon has rewarded him with starts and playing time accordingly.
When your team minimizes turnovers, maximizes offensive rebounds, hits 38 percent of its 3s and 55 percent of its 2s, you’re going to have an outstanding offense. And, even adjusting for the competition, Pitt’s offense has indeed been outstanding.
There have been slow starts and some sputtering in some of the games, but there has only been one truly offensive clunker. And even then, Pitt managed to win that game against Oakland.
Time to touch on a few more players.
Lamar Patterson: Remember in the exhibition games and the first few games of the season. Patterson was struggling on offense and you had questions popping up about how he was handling his role this year. Seems like months rather than weeks ago, huh? He’s found his 3-point shot. He’s as selective as ever taking his shots, but his eFG% is up to 56.5%. He’s taking care of the ball with a 3.8:1 Assist-to-Turnover Ratio. Even as the 3d leading assist man on the team. He’s continuing his steady improvement from last year. A little better on defense. A little better shooting. Everything is just a little better.
J.J. Moore: There are certain truths with regards to Moore, that must be accepted. Then and (most of the time) only then can you find peace with his game. The first is that he is a streaky outside shooter. He hasn’t made a 3 in the past four games. He is 1-11 in the past five games. Then he has games like against Oakland where he went 3-4 to make you want to believe he’s got his range and consistency. He is shooting nearly 31% on 3s. He shot nearly 31% as a freshman. Last year he “upped” it to about 33%. So there does seem to be a sort of consistency in the broader scope.
The second is that his nickname as a freshman was “clone.” As in being so similar to Gil Brown. Unfortunately that often applies to his consistency from game-to-game. He is such an athletically gifted player, that it is excruciatingly frustrating when he struggles. He is just so much more effective inside the arc. But he falls in love with his jumper.
That said — and I have essentially written the above two paragraphs seemingly over-and-over regarding Moore — he is making a pretty good adjustment to playing more at power forward. Especially with the effort on defense and rebounding. He’s averaging 4.5 rebounds per game and playing 20 minutes/game. He’s showing a lot more fearlessness in going inside for the basketball. He is willing to take the charges when an opposing player penetrates.
He’s scoring over 9 points/game and his turnovers are down. The latter can also be ascribed to playing less in the backcourt. But he is definitely making some better decisions with the ball than in past years.
Durand Johnson: Still something of a blank slate. In no small part because he is one of the last off the bench and into the rotation. He has an average of nearly 11 minutes/game, but it can vary wildly. He has a nice stroke. He is over 35% on 3s. Over 80% from the free throw line. He definitely will see his playing time increase… next year.
I’ll try to finish with the big men tomorrow.
It is all about selling magazines and favorites with the preseason FB and BB rankings.
MI and opponent coachs and Lunardi said Pitt an NCAA team.
He’s thinking at least 2 passes forward. He plays it forward.
And he didn’t blink against Michigan, ice in that man’s veins.
As you can see, I’m a big fan of James “Cousey” Robinson!
I for one, think Pitt basketball has been treated more than fairly, actually very well over the last years from the media.
Dickie V. goes nuts when he’s at the Pete. Same with Raffery.
Couldn’t turn a national game on, without some announcer going over ad nauseum that Pitt had been to the tournament 10 years in a row.
Same with Pitt having best BE record over the last years.
Heard Pitt’s name, then the word powerhouse afterwards countless times.
A couple questionable seedings, but we always have been seeded very high several times.
I think Pitt had a horrible year last year, especially for them, lots of newcomers, and people just said, “we’ll have to see on them”.
Couple more wins from top 25, win a few more to start the BE and we’ll be right in the top 15.
I don’t buy the Pitt hoops is disrespected stuff.
Maybe 6 or 7 years ago, ya, I could buy that. Nowadays, Pitt is usually held up pretty high as a basketball program.
Just commenting on the not being rated on it’s own.
A word about Gasaway. I jumped all over him when he wrote about Pitt 2 weeks ago and didn’t even mention Robinson, which meant to me he never watched the team play.
Granted there are a lot of teams to watch. But don’t be authoritative when you haven’t a clue.
The problem is they are all playing rent-a-win teams like us I believe. And most teams in the Top 25 are off this week like us for Finals, etc.
So almost nobody that is ranked is playing until the 15th. Again against rent-a-win schools.
Pretty much everyone schedules the same, you play a ranked team here and there early in the non-con, maybe at a early season tournament. Then a bunch of rent-a-wins before conf. play starts. Doesn’t seem to be many Holiday-Christmas tournaments anymore. There use to be quite a few. I guess the kids need to be home to get some more tattoos. lol
We’ve been sitting right outside the Top 25 for several weeks. Several teams have 2 & 3 losses and are ranked, but not us. Seems like our decade of excellence is not benefiting us at all when it comes to getting respect from the poll voters.
Some will say well we’ll be ranked after we beat Cincy on Dec. 31rst. Well yes we will, but they’ll just put us in at 20 or 21(maybe lower). Whereas if we’re already ranked BEFORE #11 Cincy at 23 or 24, when we win, we would get vaulted up into the Top 15. It makes a huge difference, as if you do get upset by someone and your ranked close to the Top 10, you don’t fall as much. If you’re just in the polls at 20-25 and you get upset, you’re OUT !
This stuff all matters when it comes to seeding and what bumf*ck place they send you to, to play the 1rst round of the Dance. It all matters.
They have 5 B1G teams in the Top 15, 6 in the Top 20.
So therefore be prepared to hear what a great conf, they have this year in hoops. Thank God we cut the cord, because I can’t stand the crap that emanates from all the ESPN studio hoop supposed gurus and their game analysts (note anal is part of analysts). That is one thing I don’t miss at all about not having TV.
And I don’t have to hear them slighting PITT either.
This is what I hate about college sports, a lot of it is politics. Especially with these GD AP & ESPN poll voters.
Hey we might not even make the NCAA’s (who knows), but we should be ranked right now. Should have been ranked after just losing to #3 Michigan. I knew we were f*cked after they didn’t immediately plug us into the polls right after that. It’s not like we’re some team that was never good before. Sheesh we have the best record in the BIgEast over the last 10 years.
Better than all the little anointed ones like G-Town, Cuse, Uconn, Villanova & Marquette.
Say we lose to #11 Cincy, had we been ranked at say #18 or so. We don’t fall out of the Top 25.
Not being ranked and say we lose, we’d have to win like 4-5 games in a row to have a chance of just getting into the Top 25.
That’s why it’s so important, to have just gotten ranked right after Michigan game, so you can inch your way up the Top 25 during the rent-a-win non con that everyone plays these days. Then if you’re up around #15 and lose to someone #14 or higher (13-1), like say L-Ville, Cuse or Cincy, you hardly fall in the rankings at all. You got to be in that grouping.
Like what I mentioned above, in how they’re setting up the B1G for conf. play. So that they don’t tumble in the rankings much, when they lose to each other. Cause you will lose a few games in conf.
We really need to make a breakthrough shortly to get to the Final 4, as apparently nothing we’ve done over the last 10 years counts much.
When it comes to Respect.
For awhile I thought getting to the Finals of the Tourney jinxed us or tired us out. But I mean when I was 18-20 yr’s old we played 3-5 hours everyday.
So to think it would tire out a team is kinda ridic.
So therefore it’s a jinx. lol
But we’ve flamed out in the NCAA’s even when losing in the 1rst round of the BE or 2nd Round or semi’s or Finals.
Multiple guys in double figures is nice, but I’d love us to get that one guy again that can carry the whole team on his back. Say a Billy Knight.
Who if we hadn’t had to play NC State on almost their home court we would have made it to the Final 4 that year and who knows.
Did Billy ever have any sons? Little Mooney’s. lol
The Elite 8 game of 1974 was played on NC State’s home court in Raleigh. Talk about a crock !
1974 was the Final Year when ONLY conf. champions made the NCAA Tournament. You weren’t up to snuff or didn’t win your conf. tournament, too bad you don’t get to dance !
But they didn’t.
Instead, they let ND push them around and use them and that is what ND did. They used them and now there is nothing left.
Schools like Pitt, Cuse and even WV tried to help them but they genuflected to ND and all they got was a knee to the face.
You reap what you sow in this world. Shame on them for treating those who helped them like crap and those who mistreated them like a God.
There are many Catholics who see right thru ND’s veneer. I am among them.
I don’t feel sorry for them. Not at all.
ND draws 60,000+
duh
NC State won BB title in 1974 without leaving the state. Regional was in Raleigh. I think they had to travel to Charlotte or Greensboro for the final 4.
You are so right. ND is Catholic in name only. Unfortunately this can be applied to most Catholic colleges today.
Once in conference play, we’ll need to win home games against some ranked teams, win the roadies we’re supposed to win, and the rankings will take care of themselves.
what becomes of u conn and cinci and sf
it seams to me that 10 of the 12 football schools have to stick together becuse there is no were else to go .
PITT sits at #26 in the AP poll leading the “Others Receiving Votes” category with 177 votes. Actually we’re tied with Oregon. Next team(UK) that received votes only got 44 votes.
#23 (AP) Wichita State got beat tonight by unranked (4-3)Tennessee.
So either us or Oregon will get moved into the Top 25 next week.
Hope the Nike guys pull doesn’t trump us.
HTP !
The Final 4 that year(’74) was in Greensboro. Charlotte has only hosted the Final 4 once, the year Arkansas with Nolan Richardson won it when Bubba & Hilary were Co-President. How about that ! lol
From AP news:
The Big East’s non-football members decided Thursday to separate from the conference, a person familiar with the decision told The Associated Press.
The Catholic schools can leave without financial penalty. The Big East has provisions in its bylaws that allow a group of schools to leave without exit fees.
WTF, You mean if PITT, Cuse & the Hoopies would have left as a “Group” we could have not paid the exit fee of $7 Million or whatever it was/is.
I mean who wants to play USF, UCF, Tulane, SMU, Houston, East Carolina, Boise State and whoever else they dig up to join the BigEast.
Full disclosure, practicing Roman Catholic who can’t stand Notre Dame. Hoping ‘Bama rips them a new one.
Obviously, not knowing the inside, or the thinking of those involved, just from my experience on this planet and keeping updated with things……..
I will go to my grave believing that Notre Dame would have never gone to the Big Ten and become just another Mid-West school in a group of Midwestern schools. Never.
I will go to that same grave, believing, Notre Dame would have never joined the Big 12 with all sports except football.
Notre Dame has as little a connection to the SW region as any other geographical area in the country. Not talking about ND alum that live there now. Talking about connections, history.
Money over rides everything, we all know that.
Doing extensive reading on the subject, Notre Dame Admins, professors, board members, coaches of the other sports, wanted nothing to do with joining that conference.
This may be laughable at other places, but money or not, I’m telling you, the AD would have been listening to these people, especially if most of them were against it.
Notre Dame was never sending their mens and womens volleyball teams to Waco. They weren’t sending their lacrosse team to Lubbock. They were never gonna send their swim teams to Stillwater!!!
It was not gonna happen money or not. Hell, Notre Dame can print their own money.
My point. The Notre Dame thing is hanging out there again, and admittedly without knowing any inside information, I firmly believe that John Swofford blew it, and should have called Notre Dame’s bluff.
They had to have a place for their 10 or 12 Olympic sports. Weren’t staying in the Big East, had to go to one of three conferences.
Only choice. ACC, Big Ten or Big 12. That’s it.
I hope I’m wrong and it works out.
And just after they enjoyed some success in football in the MAC. The rejoin the BE for football too. Wonder if the MAC will take them back for football?
This is all so crazy, it’s like what’s going on in the country (30,000 drones by 2015 flying over our cites & towns, yikes !) and indeed the world.
After thinking about this and looking back when the announcement came a few months ago, it is becoming clearer that having Notre Dame has given the ACC almost nothing, but Notre Dame found a port in the storm.
Initially, first thoughts back then from most, including me. “well, at least that will keep everyone together and save the conference”.
Ya, I thought that too, maybe a little, back then.
Now, with some time. Yes, Florida State and Clemson wouldn’t mind a game against Notre Dame, that’s a given.
But really, looking at it on a less emotional feeling……
If Florida State and Clemson get 7-10 Million to join the Big 12, they aren’t staying in the ACC to play Notre Dame once every 4 or 5 years. It’s actually laughable at the thoughts some had back then, including myself.
Hell, there’s still talk of UNC, UVA or GTU bolting for the Big 10. The promise of playing Notre Dame isn’t even a little spec of a thought if it comes down to a decision like that.
“oh ya, here at North Carolina, we got invited to the Big 10, but, we’ve decided to decline the invite, because, you know, we get to play Notre Dame once in awhile”.
Hell Clemson is more worried about Georgia and South Carolina. Same with FSU, their rivals being UM and UF.
How about the always popular rumors that come and go, having NC St. and VA. Tech going to the SEC.
You think either one of them is going to decline an SEC invitation because they might get a Notre Dame home game once every 10 or 12 years????
My second point. So what if Swofford called their bluff, and just maybe, just maybe, they did put their Olympic sports in the Big 12????
Notre Dame being in or out of the ACC, is not going to have one ounce of influence as to whether FSU, Clemson, GTU et. al. decide to stay, or if the oppurtunity arises, leave.
Does anyone really think FSU or anyone else is going to change a major decision like that, because Notre Dame is a part time member now???
Just ask Maryland. They were gonna get a game every once in awhile against Notre Dame too.
How about money. I don’t see any re-negotiations for tv contracts because ND is going to play a few ACC opponets. For crying out loud, they allready regularly play 3 or 4 of us anyhow.
So, not going to keep league together.
No money, very little if any. (some attendance at some teams games against ND will go up. peanuts compared to the big picture).
Notre Dame gets a place, a very good place to put all of it’s other sports.
This is more of a loser today, than I thought it was two months ago.
Okay, I’m outta breath.
