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October 11, 2012

The Edge of Basketball

Filed under: Basketball,Players,Prognostications — Chas @ 8:33 am

Holy crap, today is Pitt’s local media day. Tomorrow night is the midnight madness event. The season is looming, and for some, possibly taking on greater importance with the continuing struggles of the football team (and for those who are total Pittsburgh sports loyalists, the NHL lockout, the Pirates, and maybe even the Steelers). Guess it’s time for some links.

Big East schedules — for one final season — evaluated. Pitt, unsurprisingly, gets a low score from ESPN. That’s okay. Pitt fans also gave it a low score.

Toughest: NIT Season Tip-Off (Nov. 12-23)
Next-toughest: Detroit (Dec. 1)
The rest: Mount St. Mary’s (Nov. 9), Fordham (Nov. 12), Oakland (Nov. 17), Howard (Nov. 27), vs. Duquesne (Dec. 5 at Consol Energy Center), North Florida (Dec. 8), Bethune Cookman (Dec. 15), Delaware State (Dec. 19), Kennesaw State (Dec. 23)
Toughness scale: 3 — Yikes. This is a whole lotta meh for the Panthers. The NIT will help. Assuming they beat Fordham and/or Robert Morris or Lehigh (the latter of which won’t be easy), a trip to MSG will likely produce a matchup with Michigan and either Virginia or Kansas State. The rest is pretty grim, but then again so was Pitt last season. It might be not be a bad way to go about the season.

The Lehigh game will be the obstacle. Then it is Michigan under John Beilein. The idea of facing a Beilein team always terrifies me. Simply because you never know if their 3-point shooting will be hot or not. You know they will bomb away. You just don’t know what kind of shooting night it will be.

There was a great wide-ranging story on Steven Adams and his recruitment. Not to mention a girlfriend in Wyoming who will hopefully end up in Pittsburgh soon — any possible reason to stay an extra year, right? The story also discloses that, once again, Jamie Dixon nearly died because of New Zealand basketball.

Dixon took five more trips to Wellington to recruit Adams before he verbally committed to Pitt. One of the trips was in the spring of 2010 after the Final Four. After a 16-hour flight, Dixon suffered a pulmonary embolism, the result of sitting for too long on the flight, and spent a few days in the hospital.

The morning after returning to Pittsburgh, Dixon was having difficulty breathing. Once he arrived at the hospital and told doctors of his itinerary, they made a quick diagnosis and averted a potentially dangerous situation. About 10 percent of pulmonary embolism cases are fatal.

“I kind of kept that quiet,” Dixon said. “Luckily, it was only in my lungs. The really dangerous ones are when they go to the brain.”

Dixon nearly died in New Zealand when playing there after college. Then a health scare because of the flight. I know Dixon likes the place. I know he still has lots of good friends there. But, maybe the universe is trying to tell Coach Dixon something about going back to the island.

A piece on Trey Zeigler being a key part of Pitt for this season. Zeigler for his part, is looking forward to not being a one-man show, and actually having a chance to get some open looks at the basket. While still being able to display some versatility.

“Guys like Brad Wanamaker played the two (guard) and were not only able to score but make plays for other guys, and that’s something I think I can do,” Zeigler said. “Hopefully, that’s the kind of dimension I bring to the team.”

Zeigler attended the North Allegheny school district as a fourth- and fifth-grader when his father was part of Ben Howland’s staff in 2001-03. The former top-30 recruit won’t attract as much attention as he did at the MAC school.

“I’m going to be a lot more open here,” he said. “I have to make sure I’m ready to knock down open shots.”

Zeigler also has length, giving Pitt some more size for perimeter defense. Something that was lacking last year.

Finally, expectations. If you check the previews, you can see the hesitation in that department. Last year was the first time Pitt failed to meet or exceed regular season predictions. This has the previews a little cautious on Pitt. Keeping them out of most preseason top-25s. Putting them anywhere from 5th to 8th in the Big East. This, despite the influx of talent that should provide an immediate impact. And despite the injuries and loss of talent by transfer during the season.

Over at RealGM, there is a lot more optimism for Pitt.

Imagine a veteran coach who has finished in the Top-2 in a BCS conference in four of the last six years. His team is constantly in the Top-25, but struggled last season thanks to a key injury. This year, his team brings in a consensus Top-10 recruit nationally, one of the nation’s top transfers, and as a whole the team has seven former RSCI Top 100 recruits on the roster. Is this a top-25 team?

The team in question is the Pitt Panthers. And after last season’s disappointing 5-13 Big East record, I will understand if you are skeptical. But the numbers suggest that last year was a fluke, and not the beginning of a decline for Pittsburgh.

Very interesting piece with some statistical models on the players. A little more bullish on Dante Taylor then, well, just about anyone. Still he correctly notes that the offense is not the issue. It has been the defense that has been the issue for Pitt. Especially last year.

I haven’t charted Pittsburgh’s defense excessively, but Pittsburgh did have difficulty defending quicker perimeter players last year. As much as Ashton Gibbs brought to the table, his four-year steal rate was exceptionally low. And when Travon Woodall was out, Pitt’s defense was worse. That tells me Pittsburgh lacked a defender to lock down on opposing point guards. With a healthy Woodall and the versatile Zeigler joining the team, Pitt should at least have players with the quickness to keep opposing point guards in front of them. (Getting them to become lock-down defenders is still up to Dixon.)

But the real problem with these perimeter breakdowns was that Pitt didn’t have an intimidating option in the paint to bail the team out. The 6’5” Nasir Robinson was asked to defend opposing forwards in most games, and this year’s team will benefit from the increased size Steven Adams (and a developing Malcolm Gilbert) bring to the team.

In Nas’ first two years starting, he had Brad Wanamaker and Gil Brown, and Jermain Dixon on the perimeter to help a lot more. Guys with size, smarts and just enough quickness and/or athleticism to make things difficult on the perimeter and mask Gibbs’ defensive liabilities. They also were effective at keeping too many slashes to the basket. Something you need when your power forward is undersized and the center doesn’t play good defense.

That was completely missing last year. The guards and perimeter defenders were either undersized (Woodall), not particularly good on defense (Gibbs), not quick enough to consistently keep his man in front of him (Patterson), not particularly smart on defense (Wright), inconsistent effort (Moore), or some combination (Johnnson). Between the additions of new players like Zeigler and Robinson, and another offseason to improve physically and mentally; there should be an expectation that the perimeter defense will be significantly better.





With all the talent/potential Zeigler, Adams and Moore possess, I still say the keys are Woodall (sr pt guard) and Patterson (the glue.)

Comment by wbb 10.11.12 @ 8:57 am

God I’m ready for hoops season.

Comment by JW 10.11.12 @ 10:27 am

All most basketball great cant wait .

Comment by FRANKCAN 10.11.12 @ 10:31 am

Is Brad Wannamaker playing any pro ball?

Comment by alcofan 10.11.12 @ 11:48 am

woodall needs to be healthy… hopefully robinson can help out with minutes.

Comment by Snala The Panther 10.11.12 @ 11:56 am

Pitt’s defense has been pretty inconsistent for the past several years. A combination of better players and line-ups will help immensely.

Comment by omar 10.11.12 @ 12:10 pm

Brad is playing for Limoges Pro A France. Gary is playing in Germany, Nasir is in Slovakia, Ashton is in Greece (no games yet..something about dispute between team owner and tv) Gil is in Turkey playing for the team Gary played for last year.

Comment by jsc-sr 10.11.12 @ 12:11 pm

I think this team is going to be pretty good this year and surprise a lot of people. Wish the non-con was better.

Comment by longsufferingpittfan 10.11.12 @ 12:30 pm

As excited as I am to see Adams play, i’m almost as excited to see Malcolm Gilbert’s development. It may be too much to ask Adams, a true Freshman who just moved across the country, to carry the load for Pitt in the bruising Big East. Anyone remember DeJuan Blair’s Freshman season? At the end of the year he had nothing in the tank. I love the thought of having two quality, BIG post players to rotate in the lineup. True centers that can control the paint are rare these days, to have two may be a great luxury and a huge advantage. HTP.

Comment by CJK 10.11.12 @ 12:45 pm

Schedule is set. So it is weak. Changing conferences will have that effect. Just win’em all!

Prediction:

Pitt beats Louisville on Saturday.

Comment by JR 10.11.12 @ 12:46 pm

Sad day for Pittsburgh Sports…..Beano Cook passed away.

link to espn.go.com

Comment by Tourman1 10.11.12 @ 12:51 pm

Sorry this is off topic, but R.I.P. Beano Cook:

link to post-gazette.com

Comment by Panther Pride 10.11.12 @ 12:56 pm

Rest in peace, Beano you were a character

Comment by WLAT and The Big Beat 10.11.12 @ 1:05 pm

I think Admas impact on the defensive side will be huge. He’ll allow the guards to put more pressure on the ball and erase anything that gets through.

Comment by Pittastic 10.11.12 @ 1:36 pm

RIP Beano, a legendary Pitt Panther. You will be missed by all college football fans across the USA.

Comment by MariettaMike 10.11.12 @ 1:55 pm

Spot on Chas. RIP Beano.

I’ll be wearing my 87/88 Pitt script shooting shirt to Midnight Madness. Come over and share my flask with me to toast Beano.

Comment by steve1 10.11.12 @ 2:16 pm

Beano a true Pitt Hall of Famer. Thanks for the one liners.

Comment by alcofan 10.11.12 @ 2:23 pm

I saw them play at Greentree this summer..
I know… that is playgound ball at its best..
but I was really impressed by Patterson… really stepping it up… reminds me of Wanamaker… very versitile.
Starting 5.. (my opinion)
Adams, Zanna, Patterson, Ziegler, Woodall.

Comment by Joe D 10.11.12 @ 2:33 pm

Very sad news about Beano. Enjoyed listening to his take on all things college football. He was a true character and loyal Pitt man. RIP – Beano

I had a whole diatribe planned comparing Woodall to Sunseri….now it my heart just isn’t in it. Maybe in the next hoops thread.

Comment by boubacar aw 10.11.12 @ 2:55 pm

Woodall to Sunseri? Woodall is a lot of things — undersized and poor shot selection to name a few — but he is far from a choker.

Anyway, this is a great year for a weak non-con. This is a brand new team in a lot of ways; why not let them build confidence by beating up lesser opponents? Ben Howland did it every year. It doesn’t matter much where you’re seeded anymore, just how you’re playing at the end of the year.

Comment by Denny 10.11.12 @ 3:14 pm

Joe D – Totally agree on Greentree, Patterson and your starting 5.

CJK – In Greentree, Gilbert did not appear to make the kind of quantum leap in performance I was hoping for. He looked very fit and strong. But his offensive game looked the same (read non-existent). The difference between Adams and Gilbert was stark. Adams moves soooo much better. Adams is much smoother, more coordinated and quicker. On defense, Adams is quick enough that he can be patient and he rarely fouls. Gilbert is trying so hard to keep up with the pace of the game, that he looks labored, doesn’t seem to anticipate the next move and often commits too soon. Until the game slows down a little for him, Gilbert will be subject to foul trouble.

Based on what I saw in Greentree (WITH ALL THE APPROPRIATE GREENTREE/PICK UP GAME CAVEATS), I am not expecting too much from Gilbert this season. I think Taylor will be the back up at both big (4,5) spots.

Comment by boubacar aw 10.11.12 @ 3:17 pm

“unbelievable!!!!!!!”

Comment by Dan 10.11.12 @ 4:34 pm

I like it Joe D. Robinson backup guard, Moore backup wing, Taylor backup post. There’s the 8 for this year.

Comment by Tony C 10.11.12 @ 5:33 pm

That is a huge and talented 8 man rotation. Starting 5’11, 6’5, 6’5, 6’9, 7’1. Off the bench 6’3, 6’6, 6’9

Comment by Tony C 10.11.12 @ 5:37 pm

To put it in perspective, last year we had a 6’5 at the 4. This year we have a 6’5 at the 2

Comment by Tony C 10.11.12 @ 5:39 pm

Beano, R.I.P.

I’m pretty much in agreement with projected starting lineups, etc. I do think Gilbert, unless we have a significant frontcourt injury, is likely to be redshirted this season.

Redshirting and getting to face Adams daily in practice could do wonders for Gilbert’s game–in addition to Pitt gaining his availability for an extra year after Adams leaves for the NBA.

My gut feeling is this team will really surprise on the upside because I think having Adams in the middle will make the whole team stronger defensively and offensively. An undefeated OOC schedule followed by 12-15 regular season BE wins is not out of the question, IMO.

Comment by pitt1972 10.11.12 @ 6:22 pm

My favorate Beano moment:
I knew Beano as he was the Pitt SID when I was there. I was in the service in Calif when Pitt was playing UCLA. I called Beano in his room to ask him about a ticket to the game. He said to come up to his room. When I got there he was in his underware, not a pretty sight, having a drink. On the dresser was a roll of money and a stack of tickets. In typical Beano fashion, he sold me a ticket. It was a great game for Ditka, a man among boys.

Comment by Pitt Letterman 10.11.12 @ 6:50 pm

Read where Woody isn’t 100% yet. And groin injuries are a tricky thing. That adds another reason why Robinson should be played as much as possible during this exceptionally weak non-con schedule at PG. And this would include starting the season with him in starting lineup and getting large minutes.

1) Gets Robinson ready for the BigEast part of the schedule.
2) Gives Woody more time to heal, as the worst thing would be… to play Woody to early and he aggravates the injury where it becomes a season long problem or worse !
3)If you play Robinson early and often and say Woody does re-injure himself, then it doesn’t become “on the job” training for Robinson.
4) If number 3 comes into play (Woody re-injuring himself), this doesn’t become a season ending factor as it did last year.
5) Surely Dixon and/or asst. coaches have come to the same conclusions as I have.

Comment by Emel 10.11.12 @ 6:59 pm

With the influx of talent, recruited (Adams & Robinson) or transferred in(Zeigler, and no pre-season Top 25’s emphasizes the point, that after a Decade of Excellence and being the Top Team (Record Wise) in the Toughest Conf. in college basketball…..

PITT still doesn’t get much respect from the media

Which makes this a huge year for PITT basketball !

Let’s Go PITT !

Comment by Emel 10.11.12 @ 7:06 pm

RIP Beano. A Pittsburgh and PITT icon.

May we meet again in Blue & Gold Heaven and hoist a few of our favorite refreshments. ^^

Comment by Emel 10.11.12 @ 7:10 pm

Great story, Pitt Letterman. Thanks.

Comment by steve1 10.11.12 @ 7:32 pm

EMel i just saw a lisnence plate to day that read
EMEL### saw it in franklin pa.

Comment by FRANKCAN 10.11.12 @ 8:17 pm

this story lends credence to the thought that Gilbert may be redshirted. Taylor may be backup 5, and Pitt can play small with Patterosn and Taylor on the floor at the same time

link to pittsburgh.rivals.com

Comment by wbb 10.11.12 @ 8:24 pm

I should have said that Pitt can play small with Patterson (4) and Moore (3) on the floor at same time

Comment by wbb 10.12.12 @ 8:05 am

As a Penn Stater, I know I’m not necessarily welcome here, but with the loss of Beano Cook, all of college football lost one of the last voices that actually acknowledged and championed the history and all that is good about the game. RIP Beano. And beat the hell out of Louisville for Beano.

Comment by Spats 10.12.12 @ 9:07 am

I like that 8-man rotation, but I get the impression it’ll go deeper than that, especially early. Seems like John Johnson will definitely get minutes at both guard spots, and I wouldn’t count out Wright either — at least in terms of Dixon rotating him in. (If it were up to me, he wouldn’t see the floor.)

I do love the matchup potentials with our best 7 or 8, though — can go small with Woodall, Robinson, Ziegler, Patterson/Moore and Adams. Or, big with PG, Ziegler, Patterson/Moore, Taylor and Adams. I really think this will be a fun year.

Comment by JW 10.12.12 @ 9:11 am

JW…
I don’t see Wright seeing much playing time…
John Johnson will see playing time..
what about the “other” Johnson…

It looks like Dixon is recruiting to transition to ACC style basketball…
1 Center and 4 guard/sf types.

Comment by Joe D 10.12.12 @ 9:47 am

Wright will definitely be in the rotation. He can defend and rebound. John Johnson can’t do either- at least he did not demonstrate that last year.

Johnson will need to show the ability to play point or be a spark plug off the bench as a scorer at the 2. He’s going to be challenged for playing time the next couple of years by taller more athletic players. Not sure he can rise to this challenge…

Mike Young has been recruited specifically to play the 4.

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 10.12.12 @ 10:02 am

I hope you’re right Joe, but I just don’t see Jamie forgetting about a guy who played a bunch of minutes (for better or worse) last year. I think he’s too loyal to his “program” guys for that.
I could see Durant getting some non-con minutes, especially if he develops into the “hot hand” type guy people say he has the potential to show. But not necessarily a regular part of rotation.

Comment by JW 10.12.12 @ 10:02 am

Spats, I for one welcome you. It’s actually always nice to talk to rivals fans that you can hold a nice converstion with and not have to get nasty.

Nice of you to say nice words about Beano, and enjoy your season, looking a little better than a lot thought.

Hopefully Pitt can rise, and PSU can hang on, and we can have some fun games in a couple years.

Comment by Dan 10.12.12 @ 10:26 am

IMO, Wright’s playing time is dependent on whether Durand Johnson can and/or James Johnson improved his defense.

Comment by wbb 10.12.12 @ 10:38 am

With the renewed emphasis on defense this year, there will be some playing time available for Wright. Although his defense is a bit over-rated, he’s still the second best wing defender behind Zeigler.

The flip side, Zeigler is a direct replacement for Wright. Trey does the same kinds of things as Cameron, only much better.

I see John Johnson being an offensive spark off the bench (at either guard spot) and a free throw shooter at the end of games. Durand Johnson and Chris Jones will be fighting for scraps. They both have some game, but will have a tough hill to climb with lots of guys starting out ahead of them on the depth chart. Jamie has said positive things about Jones and his readiness to play right away, but I would not be shocked to see him redshirt.

Comment by boubacar aw 10.12.12 @ 11:13 am

boubacar…
It wouldn’t surprise if Wright and Durand Johnson were asked to leave at the end of the season…
Pitt has 2 seniors…
and 2 commits… and Dixon is still looking… that tells me something… but then again, Adams is a 1 and done more than likely…

Comment by Joe D 10.12.12 @ 11:28 am

From ESPN’s Writers Roundtable:

3. Between freshmen and transfers, what player are you most looking forward to seeing in his new jersey?

Katz: A 7-footer from New Zealand with an intriguing backstory? I’m in. Incoming Steven Adams has a quirky personality, but he’s the sort of character college basketball fans might fall in love with. And Pitt, after its worst season in years, is really going to need him. Adams might not be a superstar right away, but there’s a reason he vaulted to No. 6 in the ESPN 100 once our scouts saw him play. He has the type of talent to help the Panthers bounce back.

Comment by Pitt Dad 10.12.12 @ 12:14 pm

Dixon has indicated that JJ Moore will get time at the 4, so it may be that if he and Patterson are on the floor at the same time, it is Patterson that stays at the 3.

Comment by Pantherman13 10.12.12 @ 12:30 pm

@FRankcan

Must have been another Emel, up in Franklin. lol
Cause this one is in the Carolinas these days !

Predicted the Steeler loss in Tenn last nite, much to the chagrin of all my Burg friends. They all thought I was nuts, no way we’d lose to such a crappy team as Tenn. Those are exactly the games you do lose.

Back to hoops can our New Zealander take us to the promised land ! The Final Four. Funny I have a chat GF from Aukland, New Zealand. She’s a hottie and her accent kills me. Maybe this is a sign, lol

Comment by Emel 10.12.12 @ 6:58 pm

Just watched Midnight Madness. I’m so nostalgic for the days at Pitt. Hope it’s a great last season in the Big East for bb and let’s beat the ‘ville.

Comment by panther94 10.12.12 @ 11:20 pm

Did Jamie wrestle a bear last night?

Semi Pro is highly underrated.

Comment by Boubacar Aw 10.13.12 @ 8:18 am

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