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July 27, 2012

ESPN.com’s college basketball side of things has been doing conference looks for the past week or so. The Big East came in for its look.

In the best-case/worst case scenarios there is the one reason to worry.

Pittsburgh

Best-case scenario: It’s time for the Panthers to reboot after an uncharacteristically bad season. The good news? The No. 4-ranked center in the class of 2012, New Zealand-born Steven Adams, has been enlisted in the cause, as has No. 4-ranked point guard James Robinson, both of whom should be ready to contribute right away. Point guard Tray Woodall is back and healthy, while Talib Zanna and Dante Taylor form a fearsome offensive rebounding force — the one redeeming aspect of Pitt’s 2012 season. This team may not compete for the Big East title, but with all this talent, a return to the normalcy of the NCAA tournament is well within reach.

Worst-case scenario: The Panthers have incoming talent, sure, but freshmen are rarely great defenders out of the box, and what the Panthers need is defense: They finished ranked just No. 151 the country in defensive efficiency last season. If Pitt doesn’t guard someone, its fans may have to swallow a foundation-building transition year, which is a polite way of saying a bad one.

The defense is not something that we’ve thought about/discussed too much. Ashton Gibbs was not a good defensive player, yes. But all the defensive problems cannot be pinned on him (or Nasir Robinson). We don’t know how well Trey Zeigler plays defense at this level. None of the returning players were consistent on defense. There’s hope based on the CBI that Zanna is “getting it” on the defense. But, we just don’t know for sure.

Dana O’Neill points out the storylines that include the farewell tour of Cuse and Pitt, UConn’s APR dictated postseason ban, the fact that the conference still needs a real commissioner (or even a semi-real commissioner), and whether Pitt and Villanova can rebound from 5-13 conference performances.

All signs point to some quick healing for Pitt, which welcomes touted freshman Steven Adams and Central Michigan transfer Trey Zeigler to go with returning players Tray Woodall, Talib Zanna and Dante Taylor. Last year’s troubles were hard to decipher, so it’s tough to imagine a repeat.

Jay Bilas who projects the conference order, agrees and tabs Pitt for 5th in the Big East (Insider subs).

Even though Pitt won 22 games, last season was a nightmare in which the Panthers experienced a drop from their incredibly high standards. Returnees Tray Woodall, whose injury killed Pitt last year, Lamar Patterson, J.J. Moore and Dante Taylor should make Pitt much better, as it brings back three starters.

Few freshmen can come in and crack Jamie Dixon’s lineup, but New Zealand big man Steven Adams and hotshot DeMatha point guard James Robinson will be able to play right away. Transfer Trey Zeigler will be eligible from the start of the season and should compete for time from the first day. Last year, Pitt was ranked on prior performance. This year, it is because nobody can believe Pitt could be down for two straight seasons.

Great last sentence. Yes, there is the incoming talent, and while Pitt has been left out of most ridiculously early pre-season top-25s, there are still expectations that Pitt will be back to winning in the Big East.

Finally Athlon ranks the Big East coaches. No surprise that Pitino and Boeheim are up at the top, but Jamie Dixon at Number 3?

3. Jamie Dixon, Pittsburgh

Overall record: 238-77 (11-8 in the NCAA Tournament)

Record at Pittsburgh: 238-77 (103-51)

Dixon’s teams often have been lauded as overachievers, but he finally had a season where nothing seemed to go right in 2012-13. The Panthers went 5-13 in the Big East as Dixon missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time in his nine-year head coaching career. Still, one bad season in nine (or 11, going back to the end of the Ben Howland tenure) is something Pitt will take after long stretches of irrelevance.

They dropped Calhoun at 6th mostly because of his health. Still seemed a bit high for Dixon, but aside from Calhoun I don’t really see who else you slot above Dixon? John Thompson III, Jay Wright, Buzz Williams and even Mike Brey are really the only other choices. Definitely have overrated Kevin Willard and underrated Stan Heath.





Two major issues last year were defense and creating shots in crunch time. Gibbs just couldn’t do anything off the dribble so he consistently put up bad shots.

Defense: It’s very true that no one was particularly good on D last year which is a shame. JJM needs to keep his focus up b/c he was great at times but lagged when his offense wasn’t going. In the end, the hope is that Adams size and shot blocking covers up some of the other issues guys have. Hopefully the guards won’t be beat as frequently off the dribble this year as well… but I am not hopeful there which makes Adams even more important.

Crunch time: Who knows who will be the “go-to” guy at the end of the game. I’m guessing Tray but we’ll see.

Comment by Big Time 07.27.12 @ 8:26 am

you can say that Brey has outcoached Dixon the last couple years and that Williams has been consistently good in his brief tenure. Williams III and Wright have coached teams to the Final 4 … which of course is a key thing missing on Jamie’s resume.

Nonetheless, Dixon is still fairly young and has had really good success except for last year .. I can see him as No. 3.

Comment by wbb 07.27.12 @ 8:29 am

wbb: The Athlon guys explained to me that they took into account a lot of stuff in their coach rankings, including head-to-head record between the coaches. I don’t think they gave extra-credit for a Final Four appearance.

Comment by Brian Ewart 07.27.12 @ 8:38 am

What do you guys see us doing next year in the ACC? Is it a tougher BB conference than BE?

Comment by Reed 07.27.12 @ 8:40 am

While most think the addition of Adams, Robinson, Zeigler and a healthy Woodall are keys to success … I wouldn’t underestimate the contributions of Patterson and Moore.

Both showed they had a great feel for the game at times last year, but as most first year players, they lacked consistency. They also provide versatility since they can play the 3 and 4, and even the 2 positions … Dixon has not hesitated to go small in the past. I think these 2 are evry bit as important, if not more, than the aforementioned.

Comment by wbb 07.27.12 @ 8:40 am

Brian, I wasn’t referring to these rankings when talking about a Final 4 being absent from Dixon’s resume. It just seems to be a big measuring stick for both programs and coaches in general … no matter how many BE titles Pitt has won or shared, we always hear how they haven’t met expectations in the NCAAs.

Comment by wbb 07.27.12 @ 8:44 am

IMO, overcoming “bad defense” will have little to do with a presumed need for multiple players to improve their defensive skills (although that would at least be”icing on the cake”).

I was convinced last year (and remain so) that the weak overall team defense was a function primarily of not having (for the first in the Dixon tenure) a strong post presence. With no Gary McGhee, we were left with Taylor and Zanna, who were lacking the physicality, to play the post and with Nas Robinson much less effective due both to not having the synergy of playing alongside McGhee and playing injured.

This lack of a true post on defense, allowed teams to go inside for easy scores and get more 2nd chances off offensive rebounds.

It also resulted in Pitt’s perimeter defenders being forced too often to chose to either sag inside to help defend the post or being left on an island on the perimeter–or, perhaps, sometimes being confused over which to do. These options resulted in weak perimeter defense as a domino effect flowing from the lack of a strong inside defensive presence.

On top of all this, throw in Woodall’s injury with its missed games and games where he played at less the full health; Gibbs being forced to play out of position; opponents’ perimeter defenders being able to defend the perimeter more aggressively because they didn’t need to worry much about Pitt’s inside game; and, you have the perfect storm for a bad year, on both ends of the court.

So, the key really is Steven Adams. If he can just be close to what Gary McGhee was defensively two seasons ago, then all the other pieces of the defensive puzzle should fall into place. Adding an excellent dribble penetrator in Zeigler should also help make the offensive game more efficient and help create more put-back opportunities for Adams, and open looks on the perimeter for Woodall, Moore, Patterson and others. And finally, of course, avoiding last year’s huge rash of injuries would also help immensely.

Comment by pitt1972 07.27.12 @ 9:40 am

Pitt will be very good this season. They will be better than 5th in the Big East.

Comment by omar 07.27.12 @ 10:15 am

We can’t possibly be worse, if for no other reason than “addition by subtraction” having Nasir Robinson move on.

Kudos & thanks to Nasir for the heart & effort, but a 6′-3 PF with bad wheels & stone hands was a recipe for disaster down low in the manly man’s league of the Big East. Especially when you aren’t hitting 3s to keep the defense honest.

Nasir taking up the majority of minutes at 4 at the same time Ashton Gibbs had the worst year of his life was the perfect (fecal) storm.

Comment by Imma Man! Im 40! 07.27.12 @ 10:48 am

The defense underneath was adequate last year. Taylor and
Zanna are big and athletic and Nasir was a smart, tough player in the lane. The team still rebounded well. However year in, year out we get beaten on the perimeter and the wings. Last year was a new low. The Long Beach States of the world, along with a smaller more guard-oriented Big East exposed us. Good shooting and patient ball movement (a la Notre Dame, Depaul, South Florida) usually killed us. The more fluid, less disciplined, and athletic offenses like Syracuse were better matchups for us. Generally, the case has been that Pitt guards can’t close
out on shooters fast enough, they haven’t been able to truly disrupt passing lanes, and last year, played rather passionless. And it goes without saying that you still need to stay in front of your man and make a proper flash or switch on a screen. I think it is pretty obvious that Dixon and the staff have tried to compensate for all this by recruiting taller, more athletic and versatile wing players. Adams, Taylor, and Zanna will be fine defensively. But how well the others do is the make or break on defensive side of the ball.

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 07.27.12 @ 11:03 am

In my opinion it is the Pitt tendency to fear that regardless of an athletes obvious skill level beyond most others regardless of his class. I bet after the Georgia game in 1973 despite the obvious we did not want to believe Dorsett was something special.
My point is that I totally agree with Pitt’s problems last year being in the paint – they were smaller than most high school teams. My other point is based on athletic skill Adams is potentially the best center ever to play at Pitt and should be a sure NBA impact player. As a freshman he should be able to outrebound, outblock, and outscore McGhee in his freshman year byat leat 2 to 1.

Comment by drw 07.27.12 @ 11:50 am

I know I will take flack but here goes. After seeing Adams destroy the top H.S. centers. Not that he outplayed them but that he had skills, still refining, with the exception of pre-college experience I would rate him with Dorsett and Marino, Green,and Fralic as the biggest impact players to come to Pitt.

Comment by drw 07.27.12 @ 12:00 pm

I have no idea what to expect this year. At least an NCAA appearance I would hope.

Comment by Tony C 07.27.12 @ 12:46 pm

Regarding Pitt’s presence in the post last year you have to look at more than team rebunds you have to consider points in the paint. Pitt, unlike any other year, got killed in every game even against teams like Wagner on points in the paint.
That will not happen this year. Regardless who plays the 4 Pitt should win the points in the paint in every game. No comparison between Adams and`Zanna/Taylor or me and Talor/Zanna/ and Robinson.

Comment by drw 07.27.12 @ 1:40 pm

Last season Pitt’s defense was the worst it has been under Dixon.

Last year’s squad was undersized and under athletic. Both centers were slight by big east standards and neither were (are) particularly quick or explosive. Nasir was way undersized and slowed by injury. Patterson is not real quick.

And Ashton Gibbs was the worst defender Pitt has started in 10+ years. He wasn’t quick enough to stay infront of anyone, he wasn’t strong enough to deter anyone, he wasn’t tall enough to bother shots and worst of all, his effort was atrocious.

You’ll never convince me that Gibbs’ effort on defense didn’t have a huge negative impact on the whole team. He certainly caused Dixon to lose credibility. There’s no way you can preach defense, state publically that the best defenders will play, and then have your “best player” get 35 minutes a game and give a piss poor effort on defense without making you look like a hypocrite. That had to be noticed by the rest of the team.

So this year’s team will be taller and more athletic. Adams is a lot longer than either Zanna or Taylor. He appears to have the makings of a good defensive player. He is patient and moves quickly. He won’t pick up silly fouls. But he is NOT as strong as Gary. He gets his hands on a lot of balls. I expect the center position to be much better this year defensively. But Chas is right, we won’t know for sure until January.

Zanna is taller/longer and healthier than Robinson last year. He looks to have gotten stronger. He needs to get his motor to rev a notch higher. But he’ll be a net improvement.

Zeigler LOOKS to be the real deal defensively. He is tall, lightning quick and nasty. He gaurded Gil Brown tougher in Greentree than anyone I’ve seen in the last three or four summers (including Brad W.). He could gaurd three spots, 1,2 or 3. Could take the best player on the other team. And again, let’s apply all the appropriate caveats. We haven’t seen him play defense yet in Jamie’s scheme. But he has the tools.

Additon by subraction (getting rid of Nas and Gibbs), taller more athletic players and a renewed emphasis on defense should result in a much improved Pitt team, at least on the defensive side of the court.

Comment by boubacar aw 07.27.12 @ 4:54 pm

God bless New Zealand. I agree down the line with boubacar analysis except about McGhee’s strength v. Adams. In no category can McGhee be compared to Adams, including strengh. As Pitt fans we are afraid to believe we hit gold.

I apologize for my unwavering support of Taylor. Further research indicates that Taylor was at the bottom of the Mac but probably the only 5 Dixon could get. This still may be true except for New Zealand. Also although McGhee was big he was uncoordinated and completely nonathletic (6.9 pts.,7.7 rebs. 1.01 blks. per game) pitiful for someone that size.

However if Dixon had recruited anothe true center even of McGhee’s limited abilities Pitt would have won more games and not have disappeared from the national spotligt.

Adams is a monster and the NBA knows and the pundits hesitate to admit he is far above Nolens because he was unknown. As this review of the game after Adams embarassed Nolens demonstrates he is right now stronger than MeGhee and offers so much potential than any recruit to come to Pitt.
Steven Adams (Notre Dame Prep 2012) – committed to Pittsburgh – Adams was great in his team’s game on Thursday and nearly earned the top spot in my recap. He was noticeably better on Friday. Adams is a massive human being standing 7 foot, 240 pounds. Unlike most people his size though; he is an excellent athlete showing lateral quickness and powerful burst off the floor. Every time he got within five feet of the rim on Friday the back board was in jeopardy of being torn down. Adams dunks with such power whether he has time to set himself or has to go up quickly on an offensive rebound. The scary thing about the big kiwi is that he’s only scratching the surface of his massive potential. He still doesn’t understand the consistent aggression and energy that he can play with and the impact it will have on his game. Adams shows it in flashes and has incredible success every time he does but once a coach makes him realize that’s needed every play his impact will be off the charts. I don’t think I’m overstating it when I say that Steven Adams belongs in the discussion with the newly re-classified Nerlens Noel and Shabazz Muhammad for top player in the 2012 class.

Comment by drw 07.28.12 @ 12:47 pm

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