Frank the Tank has a very good post on ways the ACC can work to appease/keep FSU (and Clemson) in the fold. Some are simple fixes like the schedule issues and making sure to engage the faculties/academic side at both schools. The ND tie-in to the Orange Bowl also makes sense, and I’ve heard mentioned elsewhere. The divisional realignment to North-South (and designating Miami as “north”) makes a lot of sense, though, I suspect VT would be leading the fight against it as there is a reduced access to Georgia and the Carolinas for the North schools as a result. The ESPN part would be very important for the overall integrity of the conference, and would also reduce the risk of other schools running for lifeboats if there is a raid from the Big 12.

This is pretty simple: agree with ESPN that even if Florida State and Clemson leave, ESPN won’t reduce the value of the recently signed ACC TV contract (which averages a bit over $17 million per school per year).  There’s pretty clear precedent for this scenario with ESPN agreeing to do the same with the Big 12 in 2010 and then coming to an understanding with the Big 12 again in 2011 to have a new contract extension.  As I’ve noted in a previous post, the ACC is actually the single largest content provider to ESPN of any sports entity (whether college or pro), so there’s even less incentive for ESPN to see the ACC break apart compared to the Big 12 (with whom ESPN has a much more limited package) the last couple of years.  Contrary to what many fans seem to believe, ESPN has a significant interest in not seeing the formation of superconferences because they do not want to deal with concentrated power entities that have NFL-type negotiating leverage.  Dispersal of power is how ESPN is able to keep college sports rights fees somewhat in check.  (To put rights fees in perspective, the Big Ten, which is the wealthiest conference, currently receives about $100 million per year from ESPN/ABC for first tier rights.  By comparison, ESPN pays over $100 million per game to the NFL for Monday Night Football.)

The irony of this scenario is that would kick in over $2 million in TV money per year extra to each of the remaining 12 ACC schools, which would raise their total annual per school payouts to close to the $20 million level that the Big 12 is reportedly negotiating with ESPN and Fox.  So, Florida State and Clemson could end up leaving for more TV money in the Big 12, which would actually result in an increase in TV money for the rest of the ACC that would match what the Big 12 schools receive.  That would certainly be enough to take TV rights fees off the table as an issue for the remaining ACC members.

On the matter of the divisional changes, the opposition would be strongest from Virginia Tech and probably Maryland. VT loves the recruiting inroads it has made to the south and Maryland likely would not like to be further isolated from its original member schools. From a Pitt side of things, a shift would be fine. Having Maryland as an annual football game simply makes the most sense. Maryland will be the school closest to Pitt in the ACC and the ACC is setting things up for a Pitt-Maryland basketball rivalry. They just aren’t doing it from a football side as well.

I would add two other things to the list, that could help. Improve the ACC officiating in football. Don’t think it doesn’t contribute to Clemson and FSU dissatisfaction with the less-than-impressive ACC officiating crews. An area of constant gameday frustration and one that contributes to the perception of the ACC caring more about basketball than football.  A visible, tangible commitment to improving officiating not only helps the conference’s image, but can diminish at least a little the anger towards the conference.

The other thing. It is time for Commissioner John Swofford to go.  Swofford has become too polarizing to dissatisfied members. Not simply FSU and Clemson. The perception of being biased towards basketball and the Tobacco Road schools — in particular, UNC — has made him hated by large contingent of fans of schools in the ACC.

In that respect, he’s a lot like Dan Beebe in the Big 12. Beebe was not a strong leader, but he was smart. A lot of the reforms and changes that Chuck Neinas implemented in the Big 12 were original suggestions, ideas and pushed by Beebe. He didn’t have the support to make them happn. He was seen as too much in the pocket of Texas that led to distrust of who’s agenda he was really serving. In the end, the conference could only move beyond their own ongoing expansiopocolypse saga by getting rid of him to unite the remaining members.

The big noise last week, though, was Clemson Coach Dabo Swinney blasting the idea of Clemson leaving the ACC and the impact of the rumors on recruiting.

“In my opinion, going to the Big 12 would be the worst thing you could do as a program,” Swinney told media at Clemson prior to his annual youth camp. “It makes zero sense. We are the ACC. This is a program, we just won the championship, won it more times than anyone in this conference. We can fulfill every goal and dream as a program right here in his conference.”

Clamor to the contrary has affected the Tigers’ recruiting, according to Swinney. Prospects in Clemson’s wheelhouse of South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina, it seems, are not interested in playing in a midwestern conference.

“I’ve had to live it for about the last month,” Swinney said in a video posted on YouTube, “and it’s been very negative. … I’ve had to spend a lot of time re-recruiting guys and assuring them we’re not going to the Big 12.

“We have a footprint at Clemson that’s been established for a long, long time. The southeastern footprint has been our bread and butter. That’s what’s made Clemson. People don’t want to leave here. They want to play here. That’s a fact.”

In separate remarks quoted by the Anderson Independent-Mail’s Greg Wallace, Swinney said: “It’s been a real distraction. We’re 1,000 percent committed to the ACC. …

“Quite frankly, there’s been a lot of irresponsible blogging, reporting, whatever you want to call it. We live in this world nowadays where some guy hears something from a guy the third stall down in the bathroom and it’s like, ‘OK, that’s fact. That’s the way it is.’ It’s so far from reality it’s not even funny, but it just takes on a life of its own.”

Of course, shortly after complaining of the impact on recruiting, Swinney got a commit from one of the top player in the country, so we should all have such recruiting disadvantages.

Needless to say, Shakin’ the Southland, a Clemson blog that is pro-Big 12 was not pleased. They downplay the actual impact as only “2-3 games a year out west.” It’s a fair point, though, I think it also downplays the overall impact on Clemson — especially in basketball. There would be a change to recruiting, and it would be unreasonable to believe that leaving a geographically logical conference for something less so would not have at least a short-term negative impact to recruiting.

Clemson’s basketball coach, Brad Brownell, helped to clarify what he and Swinney said when given a chance to talk to the Clemson Board of Trustees.

“We weren’t on very long,” he said. “But we made it known that’s what we thought (staying in the ACC) was best- that this is where we belong and that this is a natural fit for these programs. The grass is always greener and always looks better in other places sometimes but I don’t know if we always realize all the ramifications that come with it.

“If we decide to go to another league at some point, you know, I’ll get behind it and do whatever it is to help make the basketball program as good as it could be. But right now, I do feel like the league we are in is a very good one- especially in basketball.

“I think Dabo thinks that football-wise the league could be better and the league will get better. Certainly he wants to put a little more pressure on people in the league office and everywhere else to do a little bit better job marketing football and things of that nature. We want the league to be as good as it can be in all sports and we feel like that can happen and we both can achieve the goals we want to achieve by being in the ACC.”

A little more nuanced. That said, the Clemson blog’s response makes it clear how much Clemson is a football school. More interesting to me was the fact that while Clemson fans are gung-ho for the Big 12, they seem to admit that the Board of Trustees for Clemson are hardly united. Others are saying that it seems Swinney got a tacit okay to be completely pro-ACC from a BOT member.

The fact that reports are now saying that  — at best — the move to what kind of playoff model college football embraces could be pushed back possibly until at least September, rather than the end of June. Something that makes it more likely that the Big 12 (and FSU and Clemson) will wait to see what the structure is before any moves get made.

Honestly I don’t think Swinney’s comments have any impact on expansiopocolypse and Clemson. I liken them to Coach Jamie Dixon’s responses to the Big 10 and Pitt rumors a few years back. Dixon made it very clear how uninterested he was in going to the Big 10. His recruiting has been based entirely on the East Coast and going to the Big 10 would have completely changed things. But in the end, if the Big 10 had offered, of course Pitt would have gone. The money, stability and every thing else would have made it a no-brainer. Even if it meant that Dixon would be unhappy or even leave. That’s what it means for Clemson. The fans may not like it because they want to have everyone thinking what they think, but it really has no impact on Clemson’s decision.

The only decision that matters for Clemson is what Florida State does. Simply enough, for Clemson, they are the travel partner. They are the even number and logistic necessity the Big 12 has to take if they expand and FSU decides to go.