As I stated yesterday, the new ACC contract will not stop those who want to believe they can raid the ACC (read: Big 12). Specifically for Florida State. This piece details the budget problems for FSU. Interesting that the supposedly loyal and rabid fans of FSU are struggling to make a commitment to pay for home games this year.

On the revenue side there is optimism that an aggressive marketing campaign will help boost football ticket sales and booster contributions. While that sounds good on the surface, with five home games against Savannah State, Murray State, Wake Forest, Duke and Boston College it will be a minor miracle if FSU is able to match last year’s ticket sales. And it’s unlikely that the home schedule will be much better in 2013.

Complaints about being able to get people to come to games when it is a pathetic home schedule? Pitt will definitely fit right into the ACC.

The piece sets a lot of issues for FSU and their budget. Especially the capital improvements needed to their stadium and arena. Interestingly, the piece does not seem to take the idea of shifting conferences seriously. Instead it believes that FSU will more likely try to use the possible flirtations to shift to unbalanced revenue sharing in the ACC media contract.

While Pitt is not yet in the ACC, and I can’t claim to have a good sense of the real politics of the conference, my impulse is that this will not work for FSU. That the conference won’t buy the threat. They will bitch and moan and then deal with it.

At best the ACC might do something to change how they share bowl money — allocating a larger portion of the payout from a bowl/playoff game to the attending team. Something that seems somewhat reasonable given how teams get stuck with huge bills for attending.

There is no question that the FSU fanbase has a lot of discontent going. Just follow the comment thread. What strikes me is how much of it is anger and frustration with the ACC and their commissioner. Hell, switch it out Big East for ACC and Marinatto for Swofford, and it would be very familiar. If you have the time, you can listen to an hour plus podcast discussion on the rumors and theoreticals on FSU going to the Big 12.

It goes a little too far down the rabbit hole at points, but it is useful. First of all, the issue for FSU fans regarding the budget problems and the TV contract mainly have to do with their rivals locally. The SEC teams. That’s what has them so freaked out. They feel smoked on that end. Arguably, it is their fault for choosing the ACC over the SEC back in 1991, but that’s ancient history.

The thing is, the budget problems — and most importantly the capital improvements they need — seem to be more of an issue of their own fundraising and donors. They admit to lacking the same deep pockets by comparison to other programs against which they compare themselves. That doesn’t go away just by chasing another conference and their big TV contract. It’s only a short-term fix.

The Big 12 pursuit of FSU isn’t going to fade with the new TV contract in some places. Most notably, Orangebloods — the Texas Longhorns Rivals.com site. Their man, Chip Brown lays out the scenario for FSU bolting for the Big 12 over the money.

So before everyone dismisses Florida State ever taking a serious look at jumping from the ACC into the Big 12, consider that.

Now, with the contract between the ACC and ESPN being announced Wednesday, the decision of Florida State to stay or go from its current conference home becomes accelerated. Florida State officials could come out at any moment and say, definitively, the Seminoles are not leaving the ACC.

And then the latest five-alarm rumor involving potential realignment/expansion in college athletics would be hosed off.

I love this. Consider how weak the rumor is about the whole possibility of FSU bolting the ACC for the Big 12. Consider that the ACC was expected to only see a $1-2 million/per team increase in the renegotiated ESPN contract, and instead got about $4 million per. The possibility is really still out there because FSU hasn’t publicly dismissed the message board rumor. In fact, because of the new deal, the Seminoles might make a decision sooner.

It’s a hilarious piece for several reasons:

— Money only is all that matters

— Clemson is entirely ignored

— Louisville is dismissed

— Notre Dame is floated

The important thing to keep in mind when reading this is that this is not Big 12 perspective. This is Texas perspective.

Money: Remember over the last year plus when twice it seemed Texas would head to the Pac-12. The money would have been better, but they were also very interested because of the high academics of the Pac-12 compared to the Big 12. They didn’t do it, really for non-money reasons. They wanted the control over their 3d tier rights (Longhorn Network). They wanted to remain the big fish in the pond. They wanted control and power to dictate more terms. The money is all that matters, though, for Florida State?

Where’s Clemson?: The rumors had constantly been mentioned as being the part of a package deal. The travel partner for FSU. The other football-centric school in a basketball conference. Nary a mention in the piece as coming to the Big 12. Why? Because Texas doesn’t care about Clemson. They want big names in big markets. Clemson doesn’t have the market. Plus, there doesn’t appear to be the economic crisis at Clemson that FSU has, that could at least give the rumor some plausibility.

Clemson is the travel partner for FSU. The guy they had to take to complete the story. The even numbered team for the Big 12 and a program from the same region. That’s all they are in the equation.

Screw Louisville: Big names and markets help. Technically Louisville is a good media market. The problem for Texas is that the University of Louisville itself isn’t big enough or good enough.

I was also told that studies had been done looking at what value might be added if any of the original members of the Big East (Louisville, Cincinnati, etc.) would bring to the Big 12, and that report did not come back favorably, sources said.

Keep in mind that the big edge for taking WVU over Louisville (or simply taking WVU, period) was the Big 12’s economic need for a 10th member and the Hoopies willingness to bolt immediately. Texas has a very high academic reputation, and the one thing it despises about its present conference is the weak academic reputation. Remember all the floating of the idea that the Big 12 wanted Pitt by Orangebloods last year? WVU did not help, and neither would Louisville. FSU is at least respectably ranked at #101 in the US News & World Reports rankings. Louisville is #164. Same as WVU (Pitt is #58, Clemson #68).

Holding out hope for the Irish: If there is one thing that reveals just how much this entire piece is a fevered Texas-fed scenario, it is ending with how Notre Dame could join the Big 12.

The Big 12 has repeatedly indicated to Notre Dame it could bring its non-football sports to the Big 12 and keep football as independent, allowing the Irish to keep their football contract with NBC while launching a Tier 3 network.

Nothing from the rest of the Big 12 members, or even the Big 12 itself has indicated a willingness to accept taking the place of the Big East as their bitch. Only Texas has been indicating it would be an option. In fact the rest of the Big 12 is generally opposed because they don’t trust that Texas wouldn’t use that as the opportunity to make themselves a football independent down the road.

Such a laughable piece, that you can picture Chip Brown physically backing away from it in this newer piece.

Everyone I’m talking to still considers any such move by Florida State a longshot.

But they also agree it’s something Florida State has to consider either now or in the future.

And while Clemson has also been rumored to be a possible defector, I’ve been told the Clemson administration would never act alone in any kind of conference jump. Only if a school like Florida State took the lead on such a move would Clemson even then be talked about as a possible realignment candidate.

Again, longshot stuff. But no one has come forward at Florida State to shoot it down.

Well, if FSU wants to try and work some new terms from the ACC in terms of revenue it isn’t in their interest to say anything. And even if they weren’t, few universities respond to message board rumors.

While on the subject of the Big 12, it seems Louisville is dropping all pretense to the rest of the conference of their future plans.

Multiple sources with direct knowledge of their situations told ESPN.com that Louisville athletic director Tom Jurich told the Big East board of directors that the Cardinals want to be in the Big 12 or the ACC, opting for transparency by making members aware of his school’s true intentions.

No invitation has arrived as of yet and the only likely one would be from the Big 12 if new commissioner Bob Bowlsby sees the need to recommend to his board that an expansion to 12 teams is in the league’s interest.

Card Chronicle believes that Louisville’s offer to join the Big 12, while not imminent, will have them playing in the Big 12 by 2013-14. Nothing about that is really new. Everyone has known Louisville is trying to get out.

The other interesting part about the FSU rumors — not to mention the Texas attempt to minimize Louisville. This from the Dallas Morning News.

Still, two sources indicated that Florida State’s name has not yet been mentioned in expansion talks among Big 12 athletic directors. One source also wondered about the rumor’s resiliency and what it said about legitimate Florida State discontent.

And multiple sources listed Louisville as the most likely Big 12 possibility, given the wobbly Big East and the Cardinals’ runner-up status to West Virginia in the most recent expansion sweepstakes. That would put the Big 12 at 11 teams and in a holding pattern.

The post does mention the ND possibility if it were to bail on the Big East. Something that still seems unlikely. Again, given the academic and cultural make-up of the Big 12, even as a landing spot for everything but football it seems unlikely.

More in that article says that UConn is now quietly trying to get itself into the ACC with Notre Dame. Even though ND isn’t actually planning to join the ACC. At least UConn realizes that the only way it is getting out of the Big East is to be partnered with ND. That is also the only way the ACC is expanding to 16. Which also explains why the Connecticut governor wants UConn to kiss and make-up with Boston College.

On a much more interesting to Pitt note, here’s an aspect of the new ACC deal worth noting.

Also important to Swofford: The contract provides “look-ins” in Years 5 and 10 for additional revenue opportunities such as an ACC channel.

In other words, even without further expansiopocolypse, there can be room for more money and perhaps even a new revenue stream for Pitt and the ACC.

UPDATE: Now this is interesting with regards to FSU.

For 2010-11 FSU reported revenue from broadcast, TV, radio, internet rights (3rd tier) at $379,167. UNC reported $11,250,489. WOW!

Understand that while ESPN gets the 3d tier rights in the contract, they don’t use all of them. Then they go back to the school. That’s how schools and coaches do radio shows, can license individual games, etc. The Big East also surrenders all their rights to ESPN. But when they aren’t used, then Pitt can use them. That’s how some games have ended up on the Pitt/Comcast channel. (Like the football games against 1-AA teams, and some of the patsy basketball games.)

If the numbers are accurate, then it suggests that the main problem for FSU is internal. Not a conference issue. How they handle, manage and maximize their own revenue streams.