While it looks near certain that Texas A&M will bolt if the SEC decides that they want to take the Aggies, the unknown is who the SEC would tab if they went to 14 or even 16. The names are obvious and have been bandied about: Mizzou, Oklahoma, FSU, Clemson, VT and/or UNC.
Forget the denials that have emanated from other programs. I think we all know that this is like a coach search. No one has been “contacted” but everyone is in touch. So, if you want to say, but FSU has denied any contact or VT has said they have no interest in leaving the ACC. Or that Mizzou is pretending to be content in the Big XII — it means nothing.
The aspect I’m trying to look at in this post is the impact/survival/attractiveness of the Big XII vs. the Big East.
The key for most conference stability is that there is a strong core. Not just attractive/strong/national programs, but programs that are intertwined with the conference to such a level that it is impossible to imagine them elsewhere — and they don’t want to be anywhere else. Ohio State and Michigan in the Big 10; Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia in the SEC; UNC and Duke in the ACC; USC, UCLA, Washington in the Pac-12.
In the Big East there is no such core. There is no program that fits that description. Syracuse, Pitt, UConn, WVU and Rutgers have all looked wistfully at the ACC or Big 10 in recent years.
The Big XII still has that mash-up quality of the Big 8 and the Southwest Conference. While there should be a strong core, with Texas and Oklahoma — the old conference divisions coupled with the fundamental inequity of revenue distribution — it instead feels held together by fear and arrogance. Texas, holds the conference together, it also holds the power over the conference. Essentially with the ability to decide when it wants to kill the conference — go independent or even bolt to another conference. Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas, K-State, Mizzou and Iowa State hang in there because they have no where else to go.
In some ways, the Big East and Big XII represent the extremes of the spectrum. The core of the Big XII is too strong, too powerful and too in control of the fate and direction of the conference. The Big East is without even one program that really makes the conference. The SEC represents the best balance of the BCS conferences with so many programs that can be considered core programs. The Pac-12 and Big 10 are somewhere in the 2-3 position. Both with multiple core programs. The ACC is closer to the Big East in that what teams could constitute its core programs either lack the heft for football (Maryland, UNC and Duke) or are so recent to the conference (FSU, VT and Miami) that they still don’t seem quite right.
The rumors are that the Big XII (i.e., Texas) feels that the Big XII is fine if it loses A&M. It can go on with 9 members. Or it could consider picking one to three new teams to join. Obviously the Big XII could look to Houston, Boise St., or perhaps even BYU. Louisville also has been mentioned as a possibility.
Louisville to the Big XII makes limited sense. Yes, the Big XII media deals are richer right now, but the Cards would be trading one type of conference instability for another. They would go from a conference that has instability from conflicting goals (basketball schools vs. football schools) and a lack of a strong core to one that exists at this point solely because the core team wants it to for now. Subject to the desires and needs of Texas only.
The Texas and Big XII situation fascinates me, because the Big East almost ended up in that situation when it tried to keep Miami in 2003. The Big East offered Miami more revenue and essentially more control over the Big East to stay. Miami would have had the hammer over the Big East with the ongoing threat of leaving any time. It would have bred the resentment you see from Missouri and other Big XII schools with Texas. Needing them, but hating how they are not treated as equals.
The issue that matters to both the Big XII and the Big East is not whether Texas A&M leaves for the SEC — since that appears to be a forgone conclusion — it’s where does the SEC get their 14th team?
A loss of, say Mizzou, would be a back-breaker to the Big XII, because then the conference would be looking at reduced media deals with the loss of both the Houston and St. Louis media markets (and a blow to the KC market). They would be looking at Big East level pu-pu platter options to replace and get up to 9 or 10. It might be the thing that makes Texas, shrug and decide on independence.
That scenario would be the best case for the Big East. They would be in a position to take Kansas and Kansas State (presuming they have to be a package deal). Then it would be a decision with UCF, Villanova, Baylor and Houston to get the twelfth football team. Big East football, while not a powerhouse, suddenly has a sense of stability with twelve teams for football. It could also be the situation that splits the basketball and football schools at long last — which would improve stability as programs would no longer have conflicting agendas.
The other direction is that the SEC pulls a team from the ACC. The ACC obviously calls up a team from the Big East. UConn, Syracuse, Pitt and Rutgers would probably fall over each other for that move. Each has advantages and disadvantages for the ACC, so I would not be quick to assume one over the other in that situation. A move that hurts the Big East and all that positioning for the big media deal is suddenly shaky.
In that scenario, maybe Louisville does listen to Big XII overtures out of fear that the Big East is even weaker than before. Stability and money would be in shambles. Where the Big East was looking for one more team to get to 10 in football, they would be forced to find three. Villanova obviously reverts back to a no-brainer to admit. UCF finally gets in, and then I suppose it would be Houston.
In other words, the Big East looks as weak as it did after 2004.
One way or another the Big East has to prepare for a big change sooner than it imagined.
If it is a “toss up” between Pitt and another program for a spot in a conference, then it could be that Pitt’s hopefully EXCITING TEAM (aka HIGH OCTANE) and additional FAN SUPPORT (aka attendance) DUE TO THAT EXCITING TEAM, might just tip a tremendously important decision in Pitt’s favor. Yes it is short term stuff, but this decision ws hypothetically a toss-up, so something smaller has to make the difference.
Overall … It should not be underestimated how important the changes that Coach Graham is driving could be for the program in a lot of ways. This is especially the case with the Pitt programs 20 yrs of mediocrity in a time of so much conference uncertainty.
COACH GRAHAM IS BREATHING LIFE INTO THIS PROGRAM RIGHT WHEN IT MIGHT NEED IT … GO PITT !!
too many sceanrios right now to fret over …. but maybe as early as next next week, there will be some real concerns
The fb pack right now is middlin’ at best.
Will Ray Graham suffer simply because he hung on?
I hope not.
I hope not.
The Peacock Network now owned by Comcast is seeking away to get involved with college football. Enter Big East/ACC realignment. The big challenge is that the ACC is under contract with ESPN for umpteen years with a goofy deal that almost seems based on basketball instead of football.
The fallout from The Big XII and the SEC will be seismic enough to finally cause Nordy and others in the BIG EAST (UCONN, SYRACUSE, RUTGERS and WVU
if WVU is not taken by the SEC) to say goodbye to the Big East Basketball League and focus attention on football. I firmly believe that some combination of Big East/ACC schools will be the endgame with the Catholic Basketball League being cast aside to form their own destiny.
Pitt will never be asked to join The Big 10 because the Pittsburgh TV market is already covered by the Party School in State College.
Notre Dame will ALWAYS remain separate because they receive messages from G-D to be above the rest of human society. Sarcastic, yes, howver, NDU will always be an INDY as long as TV $$$$ money is thrown their way. N..B..C =s Big East/ACC realignment!!
As for what the BigXII does, my fear about TCU was always that they were using the Big East as leverage with the BigXII – another BCS conference with a toe-hold in the Dallas/FtWorth market, perhaps a reason for some recruits to pass on Baylor, Tech and even A&M (before this SEC stuff happened)? It was almost daring the BigXII to not invite it to their conference. TCU could be a replacement for A&M, and they would jump at that chance.
Pitt, WVU, Rutgers, Cuse, USF, Louisville, Cincy, UConn – one division
Kansas, KSU, Oklahoma, OK St, TCU, Baylor, TT, Iowa St (or Missouri if they don’t go SEC) – other division.
All of these teams are in limbo somehow – why not control your own destiny and beat the other conferences to the punch.
Several years ago I thought the same for the Big East and Wac, and have the champions of each play a championship game.
Only the shadow knows!
I have to laugh. Even in my little pond of the world, I probably make at least 10-12 calls a day to just make sure that something we talked about last week, and is suppose to happen tomorrow, is still a go.
Are you telling me the board of regents and the pres. of TAM didn’t have some talks with the SEC about still coming on board before leaking it out that they are leaving.
Now, everyone is CYA’in, with statements left and right.
Ok, only a couple weeks till the pig flys, then it will be forgotten till mid-January!!
The other, they would have to go to a 14th team, and Florida does not want Florida State, S.Carolina does not want Clemson, and Georgia does not want Georgia Tech!!!
LMAO!!!
Would beat UCF, Houston and Temple!!
Will depend a lot on what happens. I just hope the Big East is watching every move, and being on top of things.
Latest is, TAM is definitely going, will go before the season. They had to come out publicly, that they called the SEC, not vice-versa for contract legalities.
If it does happen, more than likely, an ACC team is going to get poached, or more???
I’m all for keeping the Big East together, as long as they make some strong moves, to keep it together as a relevant conference for a long time.
Also, if it eventually does go to 4 or 5 power conferences of 14 or 16 down the road, I hope the Pitt people are on top of things to make sure we’re not left out of the dance.
Interesting stuff!!
Not being a webmaster I have no idea what you are talking about. However I am sure you do so keep up the comments even if they go way over my need to know status.
By the way how do you feel about expansion?