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April 19, 2011

Quite A Transition Year Without Gibbs

Filed under: Basketball,Players — Chas @ 10:58 am

If Ashton Gibbs is indeed staying in the draft then Pitt is in for quite the transition year. I know there is a lot of optimism with the incoming talent, and those who want to see them play sooner rather than later are definitely going to get their wish.

Right now, assuming all kids qualify academically, here is how the roster will look for next year:

rsJR G Travon Woodall

rsSO G/F Lamar Patterson

SO SF J.J. Moore

SR PF Nasir Robinson

JR F/C Dante Taylor

rsSO F Talib Zanna

rsFR G Isiah Epps

rsFR G Cameron Wright

FR G John Johnson

FR G Durand Johnson

FR C Malcolm Gilbert

FR F/C Khem Birch

Woodall would be the defacto point guard with Epps as the back-up and John Johnson possibly in the mix.

If Durand Johnson is the shooter everyone says he is, then he will have a chance to step in right away as the starting shooting guard. Otherwise I would expect the other two starters in the Pitt backcourt with Woodall would be Lamar Patterson and J.J. Moore. (Yes, I know Moore is classified as a forward, but he is a wing player and operating on the perimeter a lot more.) A terrifying prospect in terms of perimeter shooting (.293, .222 and .308 respectively).

Cameron Wright will earn big minutes. He has always had a reputation as a very good defensive player. Not a consistent shooter, though. He might be the starting

I expect John Johnson to be the odd man out in the backcourt rotation. He’s combo guard and something of a project to play point. Given the rumors of his struggles to get academically qualified, that just puts extra pressure on having him redshirt.

The frontcourt was already going to see a lot of youth. The decision by J.J. Richardson to transfer was a surprise. Especially since it seems to be his decision. Richardson would have gotten minutes this year. Not starter minutes, but definitely would have been in the rotation.

The immediate beneficiary will be Malcolm Gilbert. He was likely to redshirt, and have time to develop some offense. Instead, he will have to play minutes as a reserve/back-up center. The good news is he is a strong defensive player. There’s no question that Dante Taylor is the starter.

Until told otherwise, I’m assuming that Nasir Robinson will go into the season as the starting power forward. Maybe Khem Birch seizes it. Maybe Talib Zanna makes a leap in consistency. But neither will have the job handed to them.

This coming season will definitely see a lot more shifting in the frontcourt as it will become necessary to play Zanna or Birch at the 5 spot at points. Experimenting will be expected during the non-con. When that happens, I’m sure there will be much gnashing of teeth about defensive assignments, footwork, rebounding and position. But I’m sure Pitt fans will handle it with their usual calm understanding and patience. Especially during the season.

Now, I’m sure a bunch of people are already poised to point out that Pitt far exceeded expectations in 2009-2010 when Pitt was expected to rebuild after Fields, Young and Blair left. While the talent and potential of new starters and bench is greater than that of 2010, there are a few significant differences.

The first is experience. 2009 featured Dixon, Brown and Wanamaker. All three averaged 19 minutes or more per game and played in 30+ games the year before. Plus Gibbs played nearly 11 min/game in 35 games. The only freshman to see significant action in 2009 was Dante Taylor.

The 2011 squad will feature two players (Robinson and Woodall) with 20+ min/game averages. Taylor and Patterson were the only other players to play in more than 30 games and average double-digit minutes. It is expected that at least 5 freshman (redshirt and true) will be expected to contribute — D. Johnson, Wright, Epps, Gilbert and Birch. There will be a lot of inexperience out there.

Another factor will be the coaching. On the bench in 2009 was Tom Herrion. A former D-1 head coach and in his third year on Coach Dixon’s staff. He knew the players. This year, Pitt will also be breaking in a new assistant in Bill Barton. While he might be familiar with some things since he came from Tom Herrion’s Marshall staff, he will have to learn the players and how Coach Dixon operates.

Then there are the expectations and pressure. In 2009, the expectations were low. No preseason rankings. Picked for the middle of the Big East. A fringe Tournament team. This time, the talent has people expecting more right away. Coach Dixon has overachieved so many times in the regular season, it is now expected.

There was no question, that in 2011 Pitt was going to play a lot more freshmen. The kids were going to get opportunities. If Gibbs is indeed staying in the draft, coupled with Richardson’s departure, Pitt now has to rely on the freshmen.





Was it Napoleon who said that the cemetery is full of indispensable people? It Ashton leaves, the cupboard is still full. We may not be a top 4 in the AP poll, but we should be another 20+ game winner and an NCAA tourney invitee.

Comment by BigGuy 04.19.11 @ 11:21 am

Without Gibbs this team will be big and athletic (not typical for Pitt). Still hope Ash stays

Comment by Tony C 04.19.11 @ 11:26 am

Is there any other information on Gibbs’ decision out there? Any tweeting, direct quotes, etc?

Comment by Joe 04.19.11 @ 11:29 am

Having to play so many young and inexperienced players next season will certainly make things more uncertain and interesting. But, it will also make a big run in the 2013 NCAA tourney more plausible.

Comment by TampaT 04.19.11 @ 11:39 am

Agreed, TampaT. 11-12 season might not be pretty, but 12-13 could be beautiful, particularly with Adams coming in.

Comment by Carmen 04.19.11 @ 11:59 am

I believe that another team that started a ton of freshmen did pretty well this year – Uconn. . .as much as it pains me to type that.

Comment by Wannstache 04.19.11 @ 12:04 pm

Gibbs couldn’t get a shot off against Butler, got run down with a 2 stride lead on a fast break vs. UCONN, how the heck…..?

Anyway, appreciate his contributions and wish him much luck.

Comment by steve 04.19.11 @ 12:07 pm

Gibbs & Robinson represent the only real producers on a consistent basis returning next year. If Gibbs leaves, you only have Nas and his 9.4 ppg & 4.9 ppg coming back. Yea, I would think he would start. lol Oh and Woodall and his 6.4 ppg & 3.4 apg.

After Nas & Woodall there is nothing but question marks and uncertainty. Guys who limited playing time in all games and hardly none at all in BigEast games. Actually Woodall is a not a certainty either as he’s never had to play starter minutes, even in high school. It’s a good thing Birch decided to come early, as this could have gotten ugly quick. Coach needs to really get a bigtime PG for next year’s class, like say Myles Davis of ND Prep. Let’s hope we get this kid.

Comment by melvinbennett 04.19.11 @ 1:14 pm

Sorry typos, sinus cold affecting typing apparently.

If Gibbs leaves, you only have Nas and his 9.4 ppg & 4.9 rpg coming back.

And apparently Myles Davis is a cousin of Brandin Knight. So we got the former ND prep coach & Knight going for us. We gotta kid this Davis who can really ball. And he’s played with Birch. So 3 ins.

Comment by melvinbennett 04.19.11 @ 1:18 pm

Gibbs or no Gibbs, is anyone really looking forward to March anyway?

Comment by Coach Ditka 04.19.11 @ 1:27 pm

Yea it would be awful if Gibbs doesn’t come back. But weren’t we all saying something similar a few years ago when we lost Blair, Biggs, Young, and Fields? We did perfectly fine that season and I know Coach Dixon will make things turn out all right again.

Comment by Greg 04.19.11 @ 1:32 pm

I want Omar Calhoun too

Comment by Tony C 04.19.11 @ 2:18 pm

really tough year in the backcourt coming up if Gibbs leaves………pitt’s guard play could be really, really bad.

Comment by hugh green 04.19.11 @ 2:53 pm

Ouch Coach Ditka!! I have to agree with you though. The proverbial elephant in the room!!! Could go 29-1, ya, but…………

Comment by Dan 04.19.11 @ 3:11 pm

Well, Pitt couldn’t get to the sweet 16 with Gibbs in the linup. He disappeared against Butler. If he was a NBA talent, those two things would not happen. Good Luck to him. I don’t see it as a big deal if he skips town early.

Comment by CBC 04.19.11 @ 3:14 pm

ain’t over ’til it’s over?

link to plus.sites.post-gazette.com

Comment by Carmen 04.19.11 @ 4:44 pm

if ever there was a year that Dixon could change to an uptemp offense, this would be the year (although I don’t expect i to happen.) No experinece but more overall atheticiism. I would think that JJ Moore, who seems to be quicker than Patterson, would better fit into the 4 position.

Could this be the year where Pitt is mediocre during the season but matures and gels in March?

Comment by wbb 04.19.11 @ 7:31 pm

Good point Coach Ditka,

I’m a glutton for punishment. We need a mistress on this board.

HTP and the mistress of March

Comment by melvinbennett 04.19.11 @ 8:14 pm

If you want to cause about faith, and present a reasoned (and reason-responsive) defense of faith as an further category of belief worthy of unique consideration, I’m eager to play. I obviously grant the existence of the phenomenon of faith; what I choose to see is usually a reasoned ground for taking faith seriously as a way of gaining towards the truth , and not, say, just as a way persons comfort themselves and every single other (a worthy function that I do take seriously). But you need to not anticipate me to go as well as your defence of faith as a path to truth if at any point you appeal towards the pretty dispensation you’re supposedly attempting to justify. Just before you appeal to faith when cause has you backed into a corner, assume about whether you extremely need to abandon cause when reason is on your side.

Comment by Air Max+2009 04.20.11 @ 3:55 am

2 things with Gibbs…very weak year in terms of talent in the draft. He is probably being told this is his best chance at getting drafted compared to next year. However, any underclassman is running a big risk of not playing any baseketball next year if there is a lockout. You got a big positive for Ashton and a big negative. Interesting discussion

Comment by BDuBB 04.20.11 @ 8:17 am

Bad news — I believe Gibbs is getting heavy pressure from family and/or agents to stay in draft

link to post-gazette.com

Comment by wbb 04.20.11 @ 9:36 am

wbb: What evidence from that article or any others suggests heavy family influence to stay in draft? Just wondering, because I’ve been reading things much differently– that Ashton’s quite set on leaving but his family (dad) is pushing the other way.

Comment by Jason 04.20.11 @ 10:47 am

Jason – that is how I read it too. I think Dixon has a grip on this and will make the adjustments – if any are necessary. The big thing I see as a concern is the eligibility of J.Johnson. If he does not qualify I imagine even at this late date Dixon has someone in mind to bring in if a position opens up.

Comment by virgil 04.20.11 @ 11:45 am

I didnt know we had so many nba draft experts here….

Ashton can shoot and has range. You dont have to be the greatest athlete or an explosive playmaker to survive in the nba. Admittedly I dont follow the nba but I remember guys like Craig Hodges, Steve Kerr, and John Paxson making a living just standing around behind the three point line chucking three’s. Not one of them could create a shot or drive to the basket but they could shoot and had range.

Comment by Coach Ditka 04.20.11 @ 12:04 pm

According the PG article:

Gibbs declared for the NBA draft this month and hoped to work out for NBA teams, but he has not been scouted by any of the 30 NBA teams in a workout setting.

Read more: link to post-gazette.com

Doesn’t appear, at least according to the above that ANY NBA teams have an interest. Maybe he just wants to get on with his life…..in Europe.
Read where he can graduate this year.

Comment by melvinbennett 04.20.11 @ 12:11 pm

I think there is a rule that NBA teams cannot work out any players until after the player’s classes end for the semester. I also believe that Pitt’s classes are just finishing up. I’m not saying that Gibbs would have a ton of interest, but rather that the fact that he hasn’t had any workouts does not necessarily mean there is no interest.

Comment by Pantherman13 04.20.11 @ 12:22 pm

@BigGuy

Right quote, wrong frog — it was de Gaulle

“The cemeteries of the world are full of indispensable men.”

Agree with the sentiment and the reference 🙂

Comment by Ghost of Hornman 04.20.11 @ 12:37 pm

He may have no workouts because no one has invited him either.

Comment by Ghost of Hornman 04.20.11 @ 12:50 pm

Gibbs is thinking emotionally, not logically. He left the Verizon center so deflated and disillusioned that his emotions are still ruling him. He has a chance to improve defense and driving skills and be more marketable to the pros. But with him or without him next year is a transition year for our back court.

Comment by Old School Panther 04.20.11 @ 11:45 pm

The biggest problem with Gibbs leaving, this team will be totally dependent on Woodall. He will be the only ball handler on the team and will have to play 35+ minutes. Pitt will only go as far as Woodall takes them….yikes.

Comment by boubacar aw 04.21.11 @ 8:28 am

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