Any talk of Big East expansion and Villanova, always brings us back to UCF.
Inevitably in any post on the matter, there is the usual complaint that Villanova isn’t worth bringing into the Big East, and the Big East should just invite UCF into the Big East.
The reasons in favor of UCF are well known:
— Quality and new facilities including a sparkling 45,000 on-campus football stadium, and a new 10,000 seat arena for basketball.
— Located in Orlando, which is now a top-20 TV market (35th in radio) –links are PDFs.
— Located in Florida which is a fertile football recruiting state.
— Is the Number Two university nationally in enrollment when you include the 10 satellite campuses, and their community college partnerships.
— A rising program in C-USA under George O’Leary after winning their first bowl game ever in 2010 — a 45-44 record in the past 7 years.
So what?
I don’t ask this entirely facetiously. I ask this, because what does all that mean for Big East expansion?
What does adding an 18th member overall, do for the Big East?
What kind of ratings do the Knights get for their games? Are they the top draw on TV in their home market or are they somewhere behind Florida and FSU? They averaged just over 38,000 per game last year — also known as Cinci levels. They’ve made progress in basketball, but does anyone really go to the games or are they attended like DePaul and USF games? Answer: apparently a nice improvement this year
Just as Villanova does not deliver the Philly market — merely a claim of it — is that all UCF offers for Orlando right now? Will the presence of UCF markedly increase the money for the Big East’s next media contract significantly more than without them? Enough to offset the loss to each school for splitting the pie further?
We know why UCF wants into the Big East. They want the larger TV revenue. The greater exposure. The better access to competing nationally and recruiting at that level.
What does UCF do for the Big East right now, or even in 3-5 years? While the Big East has been painfully stupid about a lot of things, I will try to give them the benefit of the doubt that they have considered the economics and impact of adding another full member. That they have talked to their TV partners and consultants about what kind of value would be expected from adding UCF.
I’m not talking about a Big East where the football and basketball schools finally split. Where it makes sense to have 10-12 full members. I’m talking about the present configuration that splits the basketball revenue 17 ways and football revenue 9 (or possibly 10) ways.
The Big East is in a catbird seat with UCF. Just as the Big 10/11/12 is with Missouri, Rutgers or Pitt. Or the ACC is with Syracuse, UConn or Pitt. The conference has the strength with their money and stability, that when they want that team they will jump without a look back.
No one else is going to poach UCF. Not the Big 12/10. Not the SEC. Not the ACC. The best and only option for UCF is the Big East. Second-best is an MWC-C-USA alliance. That is a very weak second option.
This situation right now is very different from when the Big East expanded to 18 and raided C-USA for Louisville, Cinci and USF in football. The Big East needed 8 football teams to preserve their spot in the BCS. They had no choice but to take the chance on Cinci and USF — especially USF. They had to hope they were as committed as claimed and would develop.
Now, though, the Big East may be the weakest of the BCS conferences, they are not in the same spot. Big East Commish John Marinatto may be an ineffectual commissioner, but he was right when he said that the Big East doesn’t have to expand right now.
Getting TCU was different. The Big East’s recent slippage in football necessitated the reaching out to the geographically awkward Horned Frogs. UCF offers none of that. They are a promising program, but no history and definitely not there yet. Plus, with 9 teams, that puts the conference games up to 8. A full slate, and one less non-con to schedule. Making sure that each team always has 4 home conference games every year. UCF is not anywhere near that level in terms of on-the-field performance. Right now, they haven’t shown the consistency of a mid-level Big East program.
UCF for lack of a better way of describing it, is the back-up girlfriend (or boyfriend). Wants you. Nice enough, decent looking and at times can really look hot. Yet, you aren’t totally sold. Maybe aiming higher. Maybe there’s someone else. Yet you don’t want to completely close that door.
What happens if the Big 12/10 does implode like it nearly did last year? Texas goes independent or does make a move to the Pac-12 with another school (Oklahoma). Texas A&M goes off to the SEC. Suddenly there are options with the rest of the Big 12/10. Missouri, Kansas, K-State all just sitting there. Maybe even Texas Tech or Baylor.
It’s easier and cheaper to add teams to a conference than kick one out. Unless there is concrete evidence and the money on the table showing that UCF adds immediate value, there is no compelling reason to add them to the Big East right now.
Plus, given the way contracts have grown in just 4-5 years, the fact that this is a 13-year deal could come back to bite the Big 12/10 a lot sooner.
I really feel Big East Management is more worried about basketball.
I can see that point as being valid. However, I still want the BE to get UCF for a couple reasons. First, as you stated, they have immense potential. They’ve gone from nothing to something in a very short period of time, and I think they have a very high ceiling for improvement (given their size and location). Second, the BE needs a school or two to carry the banner in football each year. Not only are we at a strength disadvantage compared to other conferences, but we’re at a numerical disadvantage too. In other words, our teams are a bit weaker, AND we have fewer teams too. So it’s that much harder to have one or two elite teams at any given time. The more we have numerically, even if the new schools are at the same basic level of the old ones, the more chances we have that someone will emerge as elite at any given time. Instead of needing one or two of eight, we need one or two of ten or twelve.
What they’ve done, compared to other non-AQs, is tremendous. And if you just use some vision, and imagine what they could do in a more legit conference, I think the upside is enormous.
That’s why TCU got an invite last year, not UCF. TCU has done much more in a tougher conference and for longer. The incentives for the Big East are not there.
Second, please use a little vision here. We’re talking about decisions that will possibly impact the landscape for decades. Why is looking at potential such a bad thing? People on this site like to talk all the time about what the Pitt basketball team will look like three years from now, when the “upside” of all our recruits is reached. And yet somehow the conference as a whole doesn’t need upsdie. Interesting.
LOL!!!
Their size is quite a bit smaller than UCF’s, and they don’t have nearly the stadium. There are plans to tear down their current, 32,000 seat stadium. But in most cases, they can’t even fill 32,000 seats.
Frankly, I don’t see how UH is better in the money or tv department. They woudln’t deliver the Houston market much better than Nova would deliver the Philly market. They’re often called “Cougar High” for a reason.
Not only are they inferior at the moment to UCF in football, but I don’t think they have nearly as much room to grow either.
Anyway, if we ever did split and get to 12, they’d still be at the top of my list to get there, despite all this. I’d just put them below UCF when getting to 10.
UCF is a highly respected school in Florida and I think they would make a fine addition.
I have learned one thing about expansion/re-alignment the past couple of years. It never goes the way I hope or want, that is why, I think the league (it is a league, not a real conference), and it’s leadership will muck it up again.
My wishes over the past two years,
1. Pitt, Notre Dame, Missouri to the Big Ten
2. Pitt in any way to the Big Ten
3. Pitt, Syracuse, UCONN, WVU to the ACC
4. Pitt in any way to the ACC
5. Big East goes to 12 or 14 to finally have a real conference.
a. TCU, UCF and Houston on board, and a split.
b. Same as above with possibly some Big 12 teams, KU, K-ST, Missouri etc. etc.
c. Army, Navy, added.
d. Have a championship game, possibly even in New York City, Yankee Stadium around Christmas, would add some excitement and get a buzz going.
What I’ve finally realized?? It’ll pretty much just stay the same mish-mash mess it’s been for the last 30 years. TCU was a nice add, other than that, it will just stay some sort of hodge-podge conglomerate of different wants and needs.
Just enjoy Pitt football and basketball for what they are, and don’t vision Pitt ever being part of a solid, sustaining group of universities in a conference in the real sense of the word. i.e. Big Ten, Pac 12, ACC etc. etc.
I also like Houston, if we have one in Texas why not two, again recruits get to go home twice as often and it opens another TV market. Temple could come back but it has to include BBall. Villanova adds little. Either an easy win or another very disturbing loss. No hype no viewership no nothing.
With more BBall teams make two divisions, a title game and a tournament. One more possible banner and trophy for the case.
One more thought, make a play for BC, they have disappeared and are irrelevant in the ACC, bring them back where they belong.
East Division – UConn, Rutgirls, Cuse, Pitt, Hoopies, SFla, CFla, ECU
West Division – TCU, Kansas, K-State, Missouri, Louisville, Houston, Memphis or SMU, Cincy
Screw BC. BC lied and stabbed the Big East in the back. Sorry Temple you had your chance. Nova – you want some cheese to go with that whine. I’d ask Va Tech back but its a packaged deal with Virginia and they’d never bolt the ACC. Maryland will probably go to the Big 10 if asked. And, if the Big 10 wants Rutgirls for the New York market, they can have her…that dirty whore.
I have no idea what you’d call this mega conference from the Plains to the Atlantic, but I would think this new conference would be at least as attractive as the Big 10 or ACC and would be a major upgrade over the Big Least.
I still have hope.
But that was before TCU? Now, I canot honestly think of any advantage of bringing in Nova in lieu of UCF for all of the reasons listed in Chas’ post plus now tht we have 17 teams, we may as well get an 18th.
UCF may only averaged 38,000 but that is still 20,000 more than what Nova would average. Plus, I assume BE teams would draw a bit more than CUSA teams.
Classic Big East Division:
Pitt
Syracuse
UCONN
BC
Miami
VA Tech
USF
and then UVA or MD
Classic ACC Division:
UNC
Duke
Clemson
Wake Forrest
Florida St
Florida
NC St.
UVA or MD
“Unless there is concrete evidence and the money on the table showing that UCF adds immediate value, there is no compelling reason to add them to the Big East right now.”
Substitute Villanova in this sentence, it’s more a than perfect fit.
Houston as some might know is the 4rth largest city in America, some 500,000 larger than Philly. The Houston Cougars do have a basketball tradition (Phi Slamma Jamma) and do have a football tradition (the Bill Yeoman years they were one the best team in the old SWC and represented the SWC in the Cotton Bowl several times). Under Yeoman, UH finished the season ranked in the Top 10 four times and in the Top 20, ten times. They’ve also produced some of the most prolific QB’s in NCAA history such as Andre Ware(Heisman Trophy winner), David Klingler and more recently Kevin Kolb and run a very exciting offense, now with Case Keenum and were nationaly ranked most of 2009. Under new coach Kevin Sumlin (who I believe Pitt would have liked) UH is 18-9 since he took over in 2008. Clearly a team back on the rise that has had a great tradition. When Pitt was #1 in 1976, Houston was #4, so they are in some respects similar to Pitt. Something UCF & Nova do not. They would also be a perfect stable mate for TCU.
This should be a no brainer. Maybe Marinatto wil get a brain transplant.
link to espn.go.com