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February 16, 2011

Simply because the home-and-home games with the Bulls left on the schedule are the easiest. This team hasn’t missed on that all season, and they can’t afford to now. The other four games on the road at St. John’s and Louisville and at home against WVU and ‘Nova are all toss-ups in my mind. Pitt may be favored in them, but those are all going to be tough games.

The Tournament is getting closer and Pitt is looking better and better for a #1 seed (possibly even the overall No. 1).

The Panthers know how important a No. 1 seed is for NCAA tournament success. They advanced to the Elite Eight two years ago when seeded No. 1 in the East Region and came tantalizingly close to the Final Four before losing to Villanova.

“I think it’s very important,” senior forward Gilbert Brown said. “Having that No. 1 seed brings a confidence and swagger, but it also makes you more focused because everyone is out to get you. Everyone is coming for us and bringing their best game. If we can maintain the way we’re playing we’ll get it, and it will definitely benefit us in the long run.”

Pitt has some tough remaining games on the schedule, but if the Panthers can finish the regular season 4-2 or better they will likely earn a No. 1 seed. The Big East regular-season champion has earned one of the four No. 1 seeds the past two seasons and in three of the past five.

I really don’t see the team that wins the Big East regular season being snubbed for a No. 1 seed. It’s been the toughest conference all season, so it would be hard for the selection committee to say that the best team in the best conference is unworthy of a No. 1 seed.

Is winning the Big East regular season important for NCAA Tournament success? Well, it doesn’t hurt.

Claiming the regular-season or tournament title makes it three times more likely that a team will advance deep into the NCAA Tournament.

Since the NCAA Tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, teams that won some sort of Big East hardware had a roughly one-in-five chance of reaching the Final Four (eight of 42).

By contrast, 103 Big East teams have reached March Madness without winning a regular-season or tournament title in the past 26 years, and of those teams, only six– or about one in 17 — advanced to the Final Four or beyond.

Say it with me folks, “correlation does not equal causation.” Pitt winning the Big East regular season title would not be the reason Pitt makes the Final Four. It would help in getting a #1 seed — which does help — but it is not a reason. Big East “hardware” only indicates that the team is one of the best teams in the country. That is what gives a team a better chance to make the Final Four.

One thing that has improved over the last couple weeks for Pitt: the defense.

That performance came on the heels of a strong defensive effort at West Virginia, when the Panthers clamped down and won, 71-66.

“Our perimeter defense has gotten better,” Pitt coach Jamie Dixon said Monday.

“Defensively, I’ve felt good about what we’ve done. We played against two very good teams on the road, so you know you have to win with defense, and that’s what we did.”

Since allowing Notre Dame to shoot 48 percent from the field — the highest shooting percentage by a Big East Conference opponent this season — in a home loss Jan. 24 at Petersen Events Center, three of Pitt’s past four opponents have shot less than 40 percent from the field.

The Panthers held Rutgers to 38.6 percent shooting and Cincinnati to 33.3. Only West Virginia shot higher than 40 percent, making 44.2 percent of its shots.

Rutgers, Cincinnati and West Virginia never will be mistaken for good offensive teams, but Villanova is one of the better offensive teams in the league.

Of course, Villanova was without Corey Stokes, so there is that factor. I don’t think it is all attributable to Ashton Gibbs being out of the line-up that the defense has picked it up in the last couple games. I think players have stepped it up more in his absence. I also think that on the perimeter, there was a realization that they can’t afford too many mistakes there without Gibbs to counter on the other end.

Gibbs has been practicing a bit. And is close.

Pitt plays St. John’s on Saturday at Madison Square Garden. “Ashton already told me he’s playing (on Wednesday),” Dixon said. “I like how it’s going. I like his attitude and his desire to play. You want the player hungry, but you also want the doctors looking out for the best.”

Officially he is a gametime decision.

I’m torn. I don’t think he will be needed against USF, but I’d kind of like to get him out there and work off any rust and get some confidence going before Saturday. Of course, extra rest is probably the best thing in the long-term.

Back to the Bulls, they might be fired-up a little more than expected. They laid an egg at home against ND. Getting blown-out in the first five minutes and having their coach call out their hearts and effort.

“There’s just no excuse,” Heath said. “You try to find five players who want to play, and I’m in the locker room trying to figure out, ‘Are we scared of them, or are we just not tough enough?’ I don’t know which one it is. Either one is not good.”

So, yeah, they might at least try to give a better effort tonight.





if we lose to USF at home, we don’t merit a top seed .. but we do need to take care of business at the Pete … especially with road games at St John’s and Louisville … and anyone who thiks Saturday’s game at MSG is going to be a cakewalk, hasn’t been paying attention

Comment by wbb 02.16.11 @ 12:23 pm

I think I might head back to Jersey and visit the family (and MSG) this Saturday. I have a feeling that Saturday’s game is going to be fantastic.

Comment by Chris 02.16.11 @ 12:36 pm

[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Andrew Kwitowski, Chas Rich. Chas Rich said: The USF game tonight and in 2 weeks aren't "must win," so much as "can't lose" games. link to bit.ly […]


Any loss to USF would be seen as a bad one, and soemthing that would vault Duke right by Pitt into a #1 seed. I think Pitt is too mature for that, and will win handily tonight.

Comment by Lou 02.16.11 @ 1:00 pm

I just can’t see Pitt losing this game after the toughness they showed against WVU and Villanova. This team showed they know exactly what it takes to win on any given night. As for Gibbs, my hope (and this is pure speculation) is that he plays 10-15 minutes tonight, hits a few shots, and gets back into playing shape for Saturday’s game.

Comment by merlin 02.16.11 @ 3:08 pm

I’ll tell you, the defensive effort in the past two games was higher than earlier in the season. I really believe that. Gilbert especially was great. He completely dominated Fisher in the Nova game–Fisher couldn’t get around him.

I would hope that effort continues in the postseason. If we can sustain it coupled with a few more conversions on the offensive end (Ash’s retrun should help with that), I like our chances to go far.

Comment by Joe 02.16.11 @ 3:19 pm

I’m with you Chas, they should err on the side of caution with playing Gibbs tonight. It’s only been 10 days or so since he got hurt and unless Ash has some fantastic recuperative ability, that is a little too soon in my opinion. And having played a lot of hoops and having some knee problems myself, I wouldn’t push it. Too much at stake. And we certainly can beat USF without him.

Has Pitt said anything about how Ash responded to practice yesterday?
Hail to Pitt !

Comment by melvinbennett 02.16.11 @ 3:20 pm

It’s time for Gil to show HIS senior leadership. He’s still inconsistent. If he has higher aspirations (and I think he can ‘blossom’ in the NBA if given the right team & opportunity), he has to put it all together from tonite until LATE March!

Comment by Stanley Schweiger 02.16.11 @ 3:20 pm

And yes, beating USF twice is an absolute must. Also cannot lose at home. Go one and one between @ UL and @ SJU and I think you can pencil us in as a 1, with a great BET performance we could get the overall 1.

Comment by Joe 02.16.11 @ 3:21 pm

After reading all the posts to the previous thread about Pitt football competing for recruits down in the big old state of Texas, I couldn’t help but think of the impact of a National Championship being won by Pitt in BB, WOW. Having that happen with a win BY pITT against Texas for a second beat down in the same year, priceless! Could happen.

Comment by Dr. Tom 02.16.11 @ 3:29 pm

And I’ll be there in Houston to see it happen. What a great way to give the Pitt brand exposure in a fertile recruiting state.

Comment by TX Panther 02.16.11 @ 3:36 pm

Going to the game tonight, would be SHOCKED if Pitt doesn’t take care of business. Pitt is a 17.5 point favorite. In the DIXON era, very few 15+ point dogs have come into the Pete and left with a W.

Comment by Boubacar Aw 02.16.11 @ 4:11 pm

I can’t imagine any possible scenario in which we lose this game tonight. This team is far too mature to be thinking ahead to St. John’s. I think they understand the task at hand and won’t play down to the level of their opponent.

Comment by Scott 78 02.16.11 @ 4:54 pm

Boubacar…have there been ANY 15+ point dogs that beat Pitt in the Pete??

Comment by merlin 02.16.11 @ 6:26 pm

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