I really didn’t want to do this. I wanted to at least make it to May when there is a real dearth of subject matter. Reality, trending topics and of course the comments kind of forces my hand. If you can read this with the idea that I am speaking in a world-weary tone, while on my fourth Scotch (just enough so that I am a bit more tired, and slightly buzzed) it would be best.

I believe this spring and summer will see almost as much expansion rumor-mongering as this past offseason, but with even less action. We already have two teams heading to the Pac-12. The Big Ten gets its 12th member. Texas and the other nine of the Big 12 are staying together for the near-term. The ACC is holding until it has to. Same with the SEC — except that they are more in a crouch and pounce mode at all times. Notre Dame is still independent and will remain that way for some time.

The MWC is putting a brave face, while muttering about being justthisclose to being a BCS conference. The WAC is trying to avoid being at the Sun Belt bock level.

The Big East is the only conference that will make some sort of expansion move. Regardless of whether it is Villanova or UCF, that constitutes only a minor ripple in college football and college sports.

Let’s start with the Big East. For purposes of this, the Big East does not include Notre Dame since their interests — while at key points align with the basketball schools — are essentially just their own. Nor is TCU, since they aren’t going to be a member during any potential expansion this year.

As I said, contrary to the assertions of Big East Commissioner John (don’t call me “marionette”)  Marinatto, the Big East is most certainly waiting for Villanova to make up its mind. We can debate and rehash endlessly over the wisdom of it for Villanova or the Big East (and I am sure many of you will), but the reality is that competitive value has almost as little currency in present expansion and conference realignment as geographic fit.

This is about money, and claiming at least a toe-hold in major TV markets. Villanova offers that — no matter how tenuous it is.

Almost as important, they also offer the path of least resistance. The Big East is still a hybrid conference. That hasn’t changed. Rage about it. Bitch about it. Complain all you want. Demand that the conference splits and ND gets issued an ultimatum, etc. It is the reality. This means that almost half the conference has very different values, goals and economic goals than the other half. Getting the basketball schools to finally recognize that the football schools have to get to 10 teams was a miserable and tough slog that took several years.

Villanova, in the basketball schools’ collective view, solves that problem without further minimizing them in the conference. In their view, it also adds one of their own to the other side that are state schools (plus Syracuse) with large student populations and different goals and objectives. The needs of Villanova might shift because of football, the reasoning goes, but the core of the school and what it has been will remain. At least in the short term, that may even be true.

As limited financially the Big East football schools appear to be compared to their brethren in other football conferences, they look loaded compared to Big East basketball schools, as well as the non-BCS schools. Why do you think TCU is willing to move to the Big East and C-USA schools are willing to kill each other to get an invite to the Big East? The automatic BCS bid is not the reason. That’s merely a carrot. Compared to the MWC or C-USA, the Big East is much bigger money and exposure.

The basketball schools are in a tough financial spot. They have smaller revenue streams from alumni support and volume then their football counterparts in the Big East. And don’t even get in the conversation with the other BCS programs.

Their only sports revenue stream is from men’s basketball. Look at Seton Hall, Providence, DePaul, Marquette, St. John’s and Georgetown. The first two are under constant economic constraints. DePaul apparently can spend the money on the program but has not. That and a horrid arena situation makes it appear they are several years from possibly crawling out. Marquette, St. John’s and Georgetown all spend the money on basketball. But the fact is, they are pushing their upper limits and are not close to being self-supporting athletic departments.

At the same time, being in the Big East puts them on stronger footing than, say the A-10 or C-USA. They get more revenue from basketball, and far more exposure via ESPN. The basketball schools will not give that up, that is why they finally gave in to the football schools regarding the need for 10 members, even if it risks diluting the basketball side further and putting them deeper in a competitive hole.

They can’t risk a true split. They can’t risk getting either the economic shaft from ESPN without their football side, nor can they risk the lack of exposure that would come from taking a deal with Fox or CBS College Sports.

The SDSU-BYU game last night was wildly anticipated, covered and subject to tons of jokes about not being able to find it since it was on CBS College Sports channel. You think the BE basketball schools want that? They love being linked to Big Monday on ESPN (even if Marquette, Georgetown and Villanova only make one appearance each this year with nada for the other b-ball schools).

As for the football schools, as long as the basketball schools compromise on their football needs just enough, there’s no reason for them to leave yet. They can better lay claim to the NYC, D.C. and Philly markets — along with the recruiting. Those are still vital markets and while the Big East would be able to hold NYC with Syracuse, UConn and Rutgers all around, they would effectively be conceding the markets of Philly and D.C. to the Big 10 and ACC respectively.

This brings us back to UCF and Villanova. UCF seems more appealing because of further entrance into Florida for recruiting, greater penetration into the Orlando media market and clearly a more competitive football program. They have the facilities, money and are willing to spend to compete. Yet, they don’t really make the football conference better right away from a perception standpoint. They had a good 2010. They have been improving nicely, and got that bowl win over Georgia. At the same time, this is the first time they have posted back-to-back winning seasons since 2001-02. They have been up-and-down since — in C-USA.

They still need the Big East more than the Big East needs UCF. They don’t have other options. The SEC, Big 12, or ACC aren’t coming for them (Heck, the Big 12 seemed to look at SDSU first). Their only other scenario besides a Big East bid is a MWC/C-USA alliance. The Big East can wait and see with Villanova. UCF isn’t going anywhere. Not this year, not next year or beyond.

Then there is the rekindled rumors of USF trying to block UCF from joining. While USF isn’t in any hurry to have UCF in the Big East, I doubt they are actively sabotaging UCF, despite a paranoid, rumor-based, homer-tastic Orlando column suggesting otherwise.

Hopefully, all of the whispers you hear about the University of South Florida trying to block UCF from gaining an invitation to the Big East are emanating from message boards and not meeting rooms.

But I’m starting to wonder.

Really wonder.

“We have been hearing this, too,” UCF spokesperson Grant Heston said in an e-mailed response to the Sentinel about USF obstructing UCF’s potential path into the Big East. “We hope it’s not true, because our joining the Big East would clearly be a win-win for both universities.”

Now since it is college football’s offseason, and there is only so much to write about recruiting, this got a lot of play, despite little meat. To the point, where USF actually had to come out and say that while they wouldn’t discuss Big East business, USF is only interested in what’s best for the Big East. A non-denial, but it reflects how much play a speculative piece gets.

I doubt USF is actively backing UCF to the Big East, but USF simply doesn’t have the juice to block it either. No leverage, no base of support. They are one of the newest members. They don’t have long relationships with Big East and other members. They are simply a voter on this sort of thing.

Realistically the best thing for the football schools is to get Villanova first. If Villanova joins, then the full Big East member split becomes 10 football and 6 basketball (62.5% football majority). Not only is it a stronger majority than a 10-7 split (58.8%) that a UCF invite would create, but it would give the football side more leverage with the Philly market in its corner. The only true major market claimed solely by the basketball side would be D.C. (DePaul’s pathetic state makes Chicago as realistic as the A-10 claiming Pittsburgh because of Duquesne) and the middle market of Milwaukee.

In terms of football interests in the Big East, get Villanova in the fold. Then plan ahead for either taking UCF (and/or Houston) or picking over what remains of the Big 12 in a few years when it goes ka-boom.

And by the way, regarding all the silliness regarding Texas A&M being pissed off about Texas ESPN channel enough to leave for the SEC.

2. Texas’ announcement that it will be the first in the country to show live rowing and cross country — oh, and one football game, a million football practices and a kajillion football interviews before and after practice — will have a number of domino-falls. Among them, I’m guessing, is a spike in Texas A&M’s interest in joining the SEC.

Said one prominent Aggie, “I certainly think it’s going to create some reaction from some Aggies who will say, ‘(The heck with) Texas. Let’s do our own deal.’ I don’t think Texas is winning friends and influencing people among their Big 12 brethren. As for the SEC, it may be a lot of noise, but I don’t sense a lot of groundswell from the president or athletic director’s office.”

Maybe so, but who could blame A&M and Oklahoma if they didn’t unite at some point to shift to the SEC, which I think would scoop them up in a second. I am told A&M AD Bill Byrne may rally the other eight non-Longhorn schools to try to pool their third-tier rights together and package them under the Big 12 name. You know, the We’re Not Texas channel.

That’s all speculation from a columnist using an anonymous source that has spun further speculation and scenarios. No seriously. Every other story that goes off on it, and it comes back to this column speculating on Texas A&M being really pissed enough to leave. The only thing that looks certain to happen is that Texas A&M will try to keep the new channel from airing high school games.