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January 19, 2011

Underdog, Expectations, Etc.

Filed under: Basketball — Chas @ 10:49 am

Even before the Cuse-Pitt game ended last night, the usual comments about Pitt were starting. About how Pitt’s regular season play means nothing if they don’t perform in March, or how they don’t perform in March. It was showing up on Twitter and other sites. Typical stuff that happens every year.

If you think this is whining about it, you are mistaken. More of a weary sigh to the repetitiveness. I suppose it is to be expected. Until Pitt actually breaks through to the Final Four, there is going to be this doubt and dismissiveness.

Heck, even when it does happen, the narrative would shift to the fact that Pitt hasn’t won it all (assuming for the sake of argument that when the time comes that Pitt makes the Final Four, they don’t win the whole thing). Think Jim Boeheim and ‘Cuse, Lute Olson at Arizona, Roy Williams during his Kansas tenure. That is just the way these things work.

So, at 1/3 of the way through Big East play, Bob Smizik gets it rolling locally with the typical stuff.

About Pitt, though, we can’t make such a postive projection. The Panthers have no history of winning national basketball championships. In the modern era, they’ve never advanced to a Final Four and only twice have made it to the round of eight.

This is one sweet team to watch. A bunch of guys who know how to play the game and who play it hard all the way. It’s an easy team to like, an easy team for a lot of fans to fall in love with.

But everything I know about college basketball at its highest level tells me this Pitt team is going to break the hearts of its fans again.

Pitt’s NCAA tournament history is littered with losses to lower-seeded team. The Panthers never quite match up to their regular season in the post-season. That’s not an indictment. I don’t consider the Panthers as underachieving in the post season. I see them as overachieving in the regular season.

Pitt is able to ratchet up its intensity for regular-season games to a level most teams can’t match. In the post-season, Pitt is still at that high level, but so are its opponents.

That’s when talent takes over from heart and hustle.

So is it any wonder that the preseason pick to win the Big East, and sits atop the Big East standings, actually is playing the underdog card?

Maybe it’s a byproduct of a coach who fought his own doubters, or maybe it’s because many of the Panthers weren’t been highly touted recruits. Whatever the reason, these Panthers have embraced an underdog role for most of Jamie Dixon tenure, even when they aren’t underrated or under-regarded.

“I don’t think people forgot about us,” Brown said. “Maybe they doubted us.”

That mindset has been effective, even when it’s unwarranted. The Panthers of DeJuan Blair and Sam Young would act that role despite being ranked No. 1 and getting a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Therein lies the perceived slight. Though Brown didn’t implicitly say it, but that “strong run” some believe Pitt isn’t capable of means it will again make an early NCAA Tournament exit.

Something that is easily forgotten. Pitt hasn’t won the regular season Big East title since 2004. All those runs to the Big East Tournament Championship game, tends to blur that.

Pitt finished seventh, fifth, fourth and second three times between 2004-05 and last season. Dixon has an excellent chance to get back to the top after a 74-66 victory Monday night against previously undefeated Syracuse.

Pitt (18-1, 6-0) is alone on top of the Big East standings, and the Panthers have an opportunity to extend their lead over the next two weeks as the schedule eases a bit.

Pitt’s next three games are against DePaul (6-11, 0-5), Notre Dame (14-4, 3-3) and Rutgers (10-7, 1-4). Before games Tuesday night, DePaul and Rutgers had one victory between them in Big East play. Notre Dame is ranked No. 16, but the Fighting Irish have lost three of their past five entering a game tonight against Cincinnati. Plus, the Notre Dame game is at Petersen Events Center, where the Panthers have won 51 of their past 52 games.

Given Pitt was a top pick in the conference, the schedule is back-loaded and Pitt finishes its final 8 games of the season with 5 road games which includes WVU, ‘Nova, St. John’s and Louisville. There is no other way to say it, February will be brutal. Piling up the wins now is essential.

One other basketball note. Basketball Prospectus does its per-possession look at teams in each conference.

Big East: Repeat after me — Pitt has a very good offense

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Pitt              6-0   66.0    1.19    1.01    +0.18
2.  Villanova         4-1   67.7    1.13    0.98    +0.15
3.  Syracuse          5-1   65.6    1.07    0.95    +0.12
4.  Marquette         3-2   65.7    1.16    1.08    +0.08
5.  West Virginia     3-2   66.3    1.12    1.05    +0.07
6.  Connecticut       4-2   63.6    1.05    0.99    +0.06
7.  Louisville        3-1   70.3    1.08    1.03    +0.05
8.  Cincinnati        3-2   65.0    1.02    0.98    +0.04
9.  St. John's        4-2   66.1    1.01    1.01     0.00
10. Georgetown        2-4   61.9    1.05    1.10    -0.05
11. Notre Dame        3-3   65.5    0.98    1.04    -0.06
12. S. Florida        1-5   64.7    1.03    1.12    -0.09
13. Rutgers           1-4   64.9    1.03    1.13    -0.10
14. Seton Hall        2-4   66.8    0.89    1.00    -0.11
15. Providence        0-6   71.8    0.99    1.13    -0.14
16. DePaul            0-5   68.1    0.97    1.14    -0.17

AVG.                        66.3    1.05

How good a program has Jamie Dixon built at Pitt? Last year the Panthers were young and raw — and went 13-5. They were over-seeded as a 3, but that’s kind of my point. When the floor for your program is a 3-seed, you are in a happy place.

The good news is that the defense has been getting better, without great expense to the offense.





Please, as fans, let’s take this one game at a time, and much like Pitt’s team, everything will work out. To even look back at our failures in the NCAA’s is a lot of negative vibe. So much of the NCAA’s are about draws and matchups. Pitt has had horrible draws and could not have gotten worse match ups in the past. This team is built for speed and scoring unlike any in the past can run their offense thru the post position.

We need a bit of work against the press and Gibbs needs to work on his shooting form when his legs are tired.Other than that,we are good to go! Bring em all on!

Comment by Dan 72 01.19.11 @ 11:11 am

This years team has plenty of weapons starting and has players that can come off the bench to defend and score when needed.

This is the deepest and best Pitt team in recent memory. They have to continue to take each game one at a time and the W’s will continue to pile up.

Right now this team is playing like a legit 1 seed, again it’s a bit early but I really like our chances come March.

Comment by Albert Davis 01.19.11 @ 11:30 am

Thankfully, Andy Glockner has his wits about him and has Pitt as a #1 seed in the East. He bumped Duke to the #2 and added ‘Cuse as the 4th #1 seed- sending them out West. I know this is a WAY early mock-up, but this is the Big Picture ramification that games like Monday’s game can have. If we’re going to do it this year, we’ve got to be put in the East. This is the game by game Big Picture consideration. We want not just the high seed, but this region.

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 01.19.11 @ 11:35 am

[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Bob Shepherd. Bob Shepherd said: RT @ChasRich27: 1/3 through the season. Time for the "can Pitt win in March" questions. link to bit.ly […]


The problem with Duke is that the ACC absolutely sucks this year. Without Irving I don’t believe they are a good enough team to get a #1 seed, but likely will and likely will get the East one because there are very few teams that are capable of beating them in that garbage league.

Pitt is playing terrific basketball right now and I hope they can get the 1 in the East that would be huge.

Comment by Henry Hynoceros 01.19.11 @ 12:02 pm

Yep, said the same thing in a post yesterday. Duke does not have a game against a currently ranked opponent remaining. Will the committee be able to look beyond Pitt potentially having a worse record but playing in a stronger conference? We need to pull for some of these ACC teams to take them down a notch or two.

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 01.19.11 @ 12:10 pm

(Said this on various prior posts but i’m bored going so saying it again)

I remember 3-4yrs ago being frustrated Pitt was always under-seeded and played too far away. Last few years we’ve arguably (other than ’08-’09) been over-seeded. So expectations seem to be a bit our of whack with this program. Still, this will be 10yrs straight in the tourny and we’ve yet to over-achieve.

Im optimistic because:
-> Defense: while our D is having a down year, we’re still in the top 35 nationally for defensive efficiency. Dixon was doing a good bit of experimenting with the rotation and offensive schemes/pacing earlier in the season, letting other teams score a little more frequently than they otherwise would have. Better yet, I believe we’ve incrementally been improving since BE play.

-> FTs: our free throw shooting is bad, but improving historically over past seasons and so far over the course of this year. I’m not as worried about it losing us a game as I once was. Team shooting may be poor, but that’s less relevant than the individual shooting performances in end game scenarios, and we’ve got decent guys for this. Besides, people seem to forget that you can offset to a degree poor free throw shooting with great rebounding (generally and off missed free throws), which we’ve always done. Also, a few guys (Gary esp) seem to be taking it a little more seriously which may mean trending improvement over the rest of the season.

-> Depth: we are deeper than ever at every single position. Foul trouble, which has hurt us in past tourny games reffed by ACC-type crews, has not been an issue once this year. We’ve had games where two starters fouled out in close contests – yet no drop when subs came in. I think we’re good here — only minor concern is a few guys seem to get too worked up about bad calls (looking at you Gil).

-> Versatiliy: similarly, depth has translated in to termendous versatility. We’ve run in to poor match ups in tournys past, but we should be able to find a rotation that works against almost anyone this year. Worst match up so far was against a long an athletic team, esp when it was a strong front court (see Tenn), but we played a similar team in ‘Cuse and it was obvious to me by the 2nd half we figured out how to deal with (if not contain) such a team. This is better dynamism than I recall in the past.

-> history and odds: Its been said before but only in a very few freak occurences have coaches either been to the final 4 or won nat’l tiles within their first decade of head coaching. This makes sense. Dixon’s done a lot of thinigs earlier in his career than Calhoun/Boeheim/Coach K/etc. This may be another one of those things.

-> Experience: 6 current guys played on the ’08-’09 team. Some had meaningful minutes (esp Brad, Gil and Gary, though the latter played terribly). Nas and Gibbs seem un-rattle-able. That has to count for something.

-> Each of the X factors on our team has shown improvement. Gil is more consistent. Taylor is showing more prowess on defense. Gary’s shooting free throws better-ish. Woodall has been down right reliable. Its trending in the right direction.

Of course, there’s a long way to go. Obviously I have some time to kill here so there you have it.

Comment by PantherP 01.19.11 @ 12:25 pm

Have to partially disagree with you Albert…Deepest team yes, best team no. The Fields, Young, Blair team was better. That team ran the floor hard just like this one, but played better defense. It had two players on it that everyone projected to be NBA players and some media had both projected as 1st round NBA picks. That year was definitely an opportunity lost for the Final Four. I think this team can get there, but they will have to get better on defense for that to happen.

Comment by HbgFrank 01.19.11 @ 12:42 pm

I’m not positive the Fields, Young, Blair team was a better team. Yes they had two NBA talents. If one had an off night, or foul trouble it spelled big trouble. That was not a great shooting team and had some liabilities (Fields on D, Biggs and Dixon on O). The reason this year’s team could play with them is that they have so many who are capable of scoring and in different ways, driving, creating for others, 3 point shooters, mid-range game, and your typical Pitt clean up the garbage men. This team can really shoot well and shoot well from deep, they also are very deep and foul trouble is not a huge issue. I think it’d be a heck of a matchup.

Comment by Henry Hynoceros 01.19.11 @ 1:06 pm

If we’re worried that our coach can’t win the big game, I hear Haywood is still available.

Comment by matt42 01.19.11 @ 1:24 pm

Pitt has simply suffered from extremely tight calls come tourney time, while relying on tough defense. Tough defense gets crippled come tournament time with the way games are called. Tough calls and foul trouble leads to breaking up any momentum that Pitt (and every other team for that matter) always relys on.

This is why I am excited about the offensive stats so far. This could be the missing piece of the puzzle to overcome officiating in the post-season.

HTscriptP

Comment by Cool Hand Nuke 01.19.11 @ 1:34 pm

I hate to say it, but I’m with Smizik. This team’s achilles heel in the tournament the last 10 years has been a lack of scoring punch, and I don’t see how it’s going to be any different with this bunch than it’s been for any other Pitt teams in recent memory.

Comment by Jeff 01.19.11 @ 1:38 pm

Haha, it’s great to see that years of Pitt disappointment is engrained in everyone’s way of thinking. Expect failure, but if they do well, it becomes gravy! Excellent!!!

Comment by Pitt Is It 01.19.11 @ 1:53 pm

Look guys – lets all relax a bit. Remember ‘the good old days’? No, this right NOW is ‘the good old days’! We’ve got the best team in the country, we manhandled #3, we have depth, we have national respect, we have THE best coach in the country, and as Jay Bilas stated ‘PITT has a PROGRAM – not just a team’. Stick your chest out and brag about them to all far and wide. Others to the east & south aren’t saying much during this season. You’ve only got until April, ’cause after that, its 5 long months until we see what Graham can do on the fball field. For right now: PITT IS IT!
btw – lets hope it lasts thru early April!

Comment by giffer 01.19.11 @ 1:57 pm

The have the highest offensive efficieny rating in the country. Scoring punch isn’t a systemic issue with this team. And Gibbs, Wannamaker, and Brown have all been clutch goto guys for big plays at multiple points during their career. Smizik is just a textbook “glass is half empty” wanker. Chas brought it up simply to point out the trite cliche it has become.

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 01.19.11 @ 1:59 pm

swingmen… weve always been weak there

if gil is playing/shooting well and getting to the hoop this team is extremely dangerous…

plus… this team has EXCELLENT fast break and spot shooting capability (#1 offensive efficiency in country) so we can put up poitns versus some of the early 50 poitn scoring pitt teams that struggled in march

Comment by DeVanzo 01.19.11 @ 2:09 pm

Even with our crap FT shooting we are 30th in eFG% because we shoot 39.2% on 3s and 52.3% on 2s, top 35 in the country. We shoot 2s just as well as in 2009 and 3s much much better. 2009 we were 2nd in offensive efficiency and 35th defensive. This year we’re 1st and 36th. I feel that this is definintely a final four team if a 2009 team that is quite similiar in tempo free stats only didn’t make it cause we got Scotty Reynolded.

Comment by Patric 01.19.11 @ 2:17 pm

Re 08′-’09 vs today: A few things:

i) rebounding: the current team is, so far, rebounding better than that team (despite Blair).

ii) scoring: we don’t have a Sam Young like scorer, but we’re not far off.
–> top scorers: Sam had 19.2 ppg. Gibbs has 16.0. Not that big a difference. and no one on that team was an assissin like Gibbs.
–> We also have more scorers. Both teams had/have 3 guys scoring +10ppg. But this year we have 7 guys scoring over 6.5ppg. ’08-’09 we had only 4 guys doing that.
–> we’ve got better shooters, w higher %s in both FG and 3pts.
–> and of course we have more assists because we have more points and more guys that can score (same # of TOs per game coincidentally, so our assist:TO ratio is better).

I don’t think there is anything that team did better than this team does. Individuals, maybe.

What I think that means is that we are just more dynamic. If a few guys go cold/fouls out, we’re far from screwed. We’ve got far better subs this year then we did then.

Also, this year we’re taller at each position — for whatever that’s worth.

Comment by PantherP 01.19.11 @ 2:25 pm

I personally think the ’08-09 team was better. Blair, Young, and Fields were three of the best players in Pitt history at their respective positions. And Wannamaker, Brown, and Gibbs were all contributing role players on that team. So they went at least 8 deep, plus 9 if you count Gary. Competition was stronger in the Big East that year, so I think team stats are a bit misleading. I think this current team is a better cohesive unit and more fundamentally sound than that that team. But if that 08-09 team were competing in this year, it would really dominate I think. Actually, I think that most of the 08-09 versions of the other Big East teams were better than the current iterations.

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 01.19.11 @ 2:50 pm

Remember this…..

Boeheim’s first Final Four came in his eleventh year at Syracuse in 1986-87. His title came in 2002-03. Calhoun broke through in his 13th year with both.

Comment by Snala The Panther 01.19.11 @ 2:56 pm

Anyone else notice how the bench is getting shortened lately, especially the two road games against Providence & especially Georgetown?

It’s basically 7 guys, the starters plus Woodall & Taylor. Patterson, Zanna, & Moore are all getting less & less minutes every game, with Moore being on the pines for some of them. So unless one of these guys of the 3 emerge we have basically 7 players. That’s not really deep. And Taylor is subject to picking up lots of quick fouls which limits his minutes.

While it is great being in first place and all that, it is imperative that we try to get one or two of these other bench players more minutes and experience for the NCAA’s. Or I foresee another Sweet 16 early exit. Especially with the way the Selection Committee has a habit of matching us up with bad matchups. (ie. small tradition rich Catholic schools)

Comment by TwilightZone 01.19.11 @ 3:28 pm

Agree with SliverPanther.

The Blair/Young team was better as of now, this years team can still improve, especially the bench, guys like Taylor, Moore & Zanna have tremendous upside.

That noted, we had a First Team All-American center Blair on that team who should have been a lottery pick who led the nation in rebounding and an All-Big East 1rst team forward Young who was an NBA pick and is currently playing in the NBA and an All-BigEast point guard Fields. And that team had a defensive stopper in Dixon, plus Gibbs, Wannamaker, Gil Brown & McGhee off the bench.

Unless the current team really steps it up and the bench improves a lot,,,,,but hey we’ll wait and see. Hope they do become better, as that should mean we get to the Final 4. HTP !

Comment by TwilightZone 01.19.11 @ 3:42 pm

We play 9 deep and are deeper than most teams in the country. Both Patterson and Zanna get minutes and usually make decent contributions. They are both redshirts as well- not true freshman. Anything JJ Moore gets is pure gravy. Depth is not an issue for us. The starting five will still be on the court during crunch time of any game.

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 01.19.11 @ 3:46 pm

Smizik basically regurgitated Chris Dokish’s view. I’m not sure that quite applies to this team, but you never know. I don’t know if there is a player on a Sweet Sixteen type team that is the caliber of Dwanye Wade, Joey Graham, or Jordon Crawford in college basketball this season. Pitt has a great chance to do some things because college basketball is down a bit. Bob Smizik knows as much about basketball as I know about hockey, which is virtually nothing. His opinion is stolen. I don’t know what Dokish has to say about this year’s team.

The 08-09 team with Blair and Young was better than this team’s starting 5 for sure. The two teams were equivalent defensively, but this years team has been improving steadily on that end.

However, the bench in 2008-2009 was not nearly as good as this year’s bench. That makes a difference in the second week of the tournament. A player like Tra Woodall, Dante Taylor, Talib Zanna, or Lamar Patterson might be able to help Pitt win a game in March. The 2008 team got absolutely nothing from the bench in the tournament. The starters were playing nearly the entire game.

Comment by Omar 01.19.11 @ 3:53 pm

If you look at the stats according to kenpom, which is usually a good predictor, this year’s team is actually better than 2008-2009 in offense and defense. Pitt’s offense is number 1 overall in the nation, defense is 36. So obviously D needs to tighten up a bit still. I actually think this year’s Pitt team has a better chance of winning it all compared to 2008-2009 because there is no team as good as UNC this year.

Comment by XBlackMagicX 01.19.11 @ 4:03 pm

Just looked up some numbers, the current team is scoring 1.25 points per possession (PPP) and the 2008 team scored 1.22 PPP. The current team allows 0.91 PPP and the 2008 team allowed 0.92 PPP. This team is better both offensively and defensively thus far.

Additionally, this team has not scored less than 1.06 PPP all year. The 2008 team had three instances through the first 19 games where they scored under 1 PPP.

The 2008 team only had one player make more than 50 three-pointers (Sam Young at 54) all season and he was 37% accurate. No other player on that team shot better than 34% with over 25 threes besides Gibbs (36 threes at 44% accuracy) and he was a marginal contributor.

Ashton Gibbs already has 58 made threes at an accuracy of 44%. Brown is on pace for approximately 50 threes and is shooting 41%. Wannamaker is selective, but shoots at 40% from three. Travon is less accurate, but on pace for about 30 threes at 33%. This team is much better from distance.

Finally, the 2008 team collected 42% of their missed shots. This years team is collecting 45% of their missed shots.

Based on some of the more important offensive metrics, this years team is further ahead of the 2008 team than one would think.

Comment by Omar 01.19.11 @ 4:16 pm

This year’s team is a great team. Balanced and deep. And this is a great opportunity to actually win a championship- not only because of our team- but because we could possibly play the first weekend of the tournament in Cleveland (2 hrs from campus) and the regionals in Newark (pretty much within an hour’s drive from where more than half the players on the team hail from and at a Big East arena). And realistically, another reason is the lack of overall level of talent in the NCAA- especially experienced superstar upperclassmen. So things can really align nicely for us.

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 01.19.11 @ 4:48 pm

…sorry, meant to say “talented upperclassmen” in the second to last line. Obvously they have experience…

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 01.19.11 @ 4:49 pm

And if you think you’re having fun now, see how much you’ll be having in a year or two.

Comment by steve 01.19.11 @ 5:16 pm

SilverPanther and others make a good point too about competition. It doesn’t seem like the competition is as stiff this year, though maybe that’s just a perspective thing (ie maybe Pitt’s just been a progressively better program that the big dogs don’t seem so big anymore).

Of course, we’ve never lost to a team that even went on to play in the nat’l championship, so the dominant teams has never been our issue. Half of our losses were to final 4 teams, the other half to some wiley opponent we didn’t match up well with. Those teams are out there, but it does seem the general landscape is less dangerous than many previous years (esp ’08-’09).

Definitely the offense is good enough, but can the offense and defense both be good enough on the same night?

I’m waiting to see how we do against a team that has a solid, balanced scoring attack. We’ve really only seen two teams that are both good and balanced on offense(‘Cuse & Tenn.), both of whom gave us all or more than we could take. Would be even better to see how we do against a team like that on the road. That type of game will be the real test of how far we can go. Feb 12th against ‘Nova will tell us lots.

Until then…great to be a Pitt fan.

Comment by PantherP 01.19.11 @ 5:16 pm

Great discussion on comparison of the 08 team to this years.

Another point that isn’t necessarily seen in the defensive statistics that Omar pointed out is that Fields was a huge liability on defense. I don’t mean to diminish him as a player because he was a terrific offensive point guard, but we can match up with a variety of different teams/offensive styles because of our length and depth which wasn’t true of the 08 squad. Perhaps we don’t have that “lock down” defender that Dixon was, but we also are much stronger across the board as far as individual defenders go.

Comment by TJ 01.19.11 @ 5:22 pm

I know this is all for fun, but I do want to say we are getting a little ahead of ourselves, Silver Panther. The regular season is long and full of many more challenges. Let’s see how we do on the road against some good opponents, and how we bounce back from adversity. More importantly, let’s see how those results translate to seeding.

If we get a #1 seed, I am prepared to say yes, this team has a better chance than the 08 09 squad to get to the Final 4 because competition is worse this year. But there is a long way to go before I think the comparison is fully eligible.

Comment by Joe 01.19.11 @ 5:26 pm

It’s a hypothetical discussion. We’re all aware of the current situation.

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 01.19.11 @ 5:51 pm

Bob Smizik and Ron Cook are cut from the same dirty, ragged burlap cloth. Both are “nattering nabobs of negativism”. The late Bill Currie of KDKA TV and later, KDKA radio, used to mock Smizik. “Bob Smizik knows everything.”

The 1987-88 Pitt team was the most talent laden. That team should have won a national championship. This year’s team has a chance to win one. I am not worried about the poll rankings, or Duke, or ACC referees, or what Bob Smizik complains about. Neither is Jamie Dixon or his team.

Comment by Penguins Fan 01.19.11 @ 5:53 pm

…and I totally disagree with the “Levance Fields was a defensive liability” stuff. That’s purely anecdotal and sounds goofy among all these statistics being tossed around. He played 20+ minutes his entire career and the program won more games than any other 4 year span in our history.

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 01.19.11 @ 5:59 pm

The team won a lot of games because we played great defense, arguably in spite of Levance’s play. Put him on this team and he is nowhere near the defender that Wanamaker, Woodall or even Gibbs is. He wasn’t a bad player by any stretch, but he wasn’t a good matchup from a defensive standpoint for other point guards.

Comment by TJ 01.19.11 @ 6:05 pm

oh and on Smizik, referring to Ashton Gibbs as “the team’s best player” demonstrates how little he knows about basketball or this team. Gibbs is great, but certainly not definitively the team’s best player.

Comment by TJ 01.19.11 @ 6:11 pm

Brad Wannamaker is quite clearly the best player on this team.

Comment by Omar 01.19.11 @ 6:42 pm

Piling onto what others have been saying, but the big intangibles…

1) We’re playing in Cleveland for the first two games(book us for S16)

2) NCAA, as a whole, is down (not many GTGs as usual). Aside from a guard heavy teams raining 3s, I’m not worried about any team in the country. 2008/2009 was a monster talent year…that team would dominate this year based solely on lack of quality teams.

3) Team Rebounding is MILES ahead of previous Pitt teams. As long as we stay efficient and get our garbage points, we can survive an off-shooting night in the 6 game run.

4) We can score from multiple schemes and formations; thanks to Gibbs’ range, Wanny’s attacking style, and Nasir’s high basketball IQ…we are versatile as heck on offense.

5) Karma is on our side; Damnit, we are due.

Here are some of my fears for March…

1) Low Team FT%…if we shoot 70% or greater, we will be tough to beat; below that and look out for tightly called games and hack a shaq games …
that could cause a premature exit.

2) Gilbert never metamorphisize into the monster GTG in ONE of the games in the tourney (He needs to have ONE monster game when Wanny has his game where he goes MIA and/or Gibbs has a game where he is stymied). To me, I hope he has a game in the E8 to bust a nut from 5 YEARS of frustration and underachieving.

3) Our depth gets squirelly in the 2nd rounds when the competition is tougher…Taylor, Woodall, Zanna, and Moore…will they have stone hands, poor defense, and ill-advised plays? Probably the biggest things we need from backups is defense from Taylor and ballhandling from Woodall.

4) Injuries– lots of time before March…

5) Perimeter defense; basically, we have to prevent the games in the tourney where we give up tons of points from beyond the arc. We’re getting better on defense, but we need to get better.

Comment by Pauly P 01.19.11 @ 6:45 pm

the 87-88 team was similar to the 08-09 team in that it had a Big 3 and 2 supporting players with little quality depth. While the current team cannot match the Big 3 of the aforementioned teams, I’m not so sure that this year’s team is the best based on quality depth alone

Comment by wbb 01.19.11 @ 6:58 pm

Levance was an awesome point guard at Pitt. The reason why he was a defensive liability towards the end was due to his nagging foot issues. He missed tons of offseason condition because of it.

Comment by XBlackMagicX 01.19.11 @ 7:10 pm

Winning it all would be amazing, but you know what? They may never win the championship. So many things have to break right. Who would have thought it was Villanova’s year when they won it? I can live with exciting games, runs deep into March, and a program and coach to be proud of.

I won’t ever give up hoping, though!

Comment by Pwmcdupitt 01.19.11 @ 7:17 pm

So many good posts guys, its like the “other” sport is a totally different world.

To me, the main argument for “this is the year” is the level of nationwide competition. The 08-09 team was star-laden and had fantastic synergy, but foul trouble and off-nights by individuals were dooming. This year we don’t have the big scorer that wins 4+ games in the NCAA, but we have 2-4 guys who can drop 15 in the flow of the game. Dixon runs so many fresh bodies onto the court he’s almost Ron Everhart. We’re a tough match-up, and the scouting report is probably a long read.

I said it in another post but the eye test is always the most true – who is better than the Panthers right now? I watch a fair amount of college b-ball and outside OSU and Duke not many teams can handle what we can throw at them. In the nine previous years I can never remember thinking “We got this”, this year I do. Alas, anything can happen in the tourney but we could literally stumble into the Sweet16. Final Four this year is not a high hope, its right on cue, and we should not feel like poor fans to expect our team to achieve what we feel is obtainable. But for now lets plow through the BE and win the regular season.

HTP

Comment by tacocat 01.19.11 @ 8:14 pm

How great would it be for the Pitt Seniors to leave campus as National Champions/ Guys like Wannamaker, McGhee and Brown being talked of in future Pittblather debates. All of us debating future teams and looking back and saying, “Damn, that group of Seniors…wow, we never saw that coming!” I mean, Gary Freaking McGhee cutting down the nets in Houston…how fitting! Talk about a great story. Brad Wannamaker giving all of his critics (me included) a big FU middle finger with a ring on it? Gil Brown with a MVP in the Final Game dropping 27 points and 13 rebounds on Duke….

and Jamie Dixon getting offered the Lakers job shortly after when the Zen Master retires, turns it down, and NOONE ever brings up this ridiculous horseshit about not making a FF or winning the big one!!
How great would that be?

Maybe the Karma Gods will shine on these young men…and Coach JD…

Comment by Pauly P 01.19.11 @ 9:44 pm

The proof is in the pudding for the L-Train- Fields was on the court for more wins than any player in Pitt history. Trying to go as far as calling him a “liability” on defense and anecdotaly claiming that the other players compensated for him and they won ALL those games despite him is ridonkulous. Prove that shit? That’s just people trying to sound smart. Even in man-to-man defense, college basketball is not about the individual matchups like NBA. He may have been the weakest player defensively among the starters, but he wasn’t a liability…And he played in every game his senior year- the one we were one freakish play away from going to the FF. He hurt his foot and missed games early in the season the year before.

Three of the key bench players on the 08-09 team are starters on this team now. And two years ago we talked about how the team had decent depth and the team was fairly recognized for that. We went 8 deep on that team. And plenty of people on this forum were also spending a lot of time whining that Gilbert Brown, who was the sixth man, should start. Also, every great team with a great center in the middle or prolific scorer is always one foul-out away from being in trouble. But we had one of each on that team, plus a sure-handed point guard. I love both teams and actually prefer this current team’s ball movement and chemistry. The next few weeks are going to be great.

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 01.19.11 @ 9:59 pm

I agree with tacocat on the “eye test,” and although I would’ve questioned that immediately following the Tennessee game, I think Pitt has improved significantly since then.

Intangibles…it will come down to that, and a little bit of luck. Did anyone really believe that Butler was the #2 team in the country last year? The Bulldogs had a few decent three-point shooters, and they stepped up their “D” and their confidence with each game.

If we can make it past the Sweet 16, it could considerably boost our confidence enough to break through the ceiling. We have the talent; we just need to catch the right wave and ride it.

Comment by Lou 01.19.11 @ 10:48 pm

SilverPanther, I’m not sure why you are getting so fired up about Levance. He was a great point guard. His weakness was his defense. All players have weaknesses. And it’s not just trying to sound smart. Woodall averages the same number of steals per game playing l2 less minutes than Fields did his senior year (and yes I know steals aren’t the best indicator of good D, but still shows something). And Levance was hurt to start his senior year with the foot and tourney time with the groin injury. Irregardless Levance was an awesome PG.

I think the stats show that the 2010-2011 Pitt team can end up better than 2008-2009. Right now 2010-2011 has a higher KenPom rating than 2008-2009.

Also, stats seem to suggest 2010-2011 team has more playmakers and better offensive players at the top.

2008-2009, Levance led Big East in Assist-Rate at 38.0 next highest was Wanny at 31 at 18.0 then Jermaine Dixon at 50 with 13.7. This Wanny at 3rd in the BE at 33.3 year and Woodall at 9th with 30.0, Gil at 25 with 20.9 and Ashton at 26 with 20.5.

Offensive rating wise Ashton is the same as Blair, Wanny and Gil Brown are a bit better than Fields who was second on the team. And to my surprise Gary McGhee is higher than the rest of the team including Sam Young. Travon Woodall has the same rating as Biggs (who was 3rd in 08-09) and is higher than Sam Young’s.

Comment by XBlackMagicX 01.20.11 @ 1:06 am

Ya, not trying to sound smart, but I think Fields’ defense was lacking. He was a phenomenal player, but his defense was not stellar. I’m not sure there is really any way to quantify that, but he had a difficult time staying between his man and the basket and would get beat from time to time. I don’t think that because the team won a lot of games proves he was a great defender by any stretch.

I guess we’ll agree to disagree.

Comment by TJ 01.20.11 @ 10:00 am

For starters…look in a dictionary look up Smizik. Lazy reporting/sportswriter is what it will say. Go to journalism school and when you get a D or F on your paper…it will say ‘Don’t be a Smizik’. The guy uses the same article time after time.
Pitt hasn’t made a run in March. Pitt wears itself out in the BET.

If it is all about a deep run in March…is Marquette looked at as a better program than Pitt. Seriously. They made a final four run going on 8 years ago. Have been to the tournament sporadically since…winning maybe one or two games in those appearances. I know, I know…Al and the 70s…history….But I don’t see it. Or how about Maryland. They won a title 10 years ago but have been back only a couple of times since…are they better than Pitt?

Comment by George 01.20.11 @ 10:55 am

If they can put teams away early and keep them there they will do fine. My recollection is that teams were always in games in the past. Yes they came back to win games, but also lost game by 1) not showing up 2) not putting the game away. These past 2 games with 7-9 minute droughts makes me think the mind set has changed and they are trying to put teams away, but sometimes the 3 point shooters need to take a few steps in and settle for stable 2 points rather than 3 point shot. Each drought has come with Pitt up double digits and Brown/Gibbs and Woodall hurling up 3 pointers when all they needed were 2 pointers. I like that they are trying to build the killer instinct, but some common sense needs to come about and someone (Brown) needs to drive to the hoop or take 2 steps in and sink the shot. This is my only gripe with this team. I think they have what it takes to win it.

Comment by TomMc 01.20.11 @ 11:15 am

Someone up-thread said Fields was a liability on defense and the rest of the team compensated for this- which is horseshit. And he didn’t have problems staying between his man and the basket, but certainly his lack of quickness was his weakness on switchups. Most problems and weaknesses on defense do not occur when individuals are broken down- as is often tossed around here as psuedo-analytic non-sense when it comes to Fields or Gibbs or other players who aren’t on the surface, terribly athletic. Problems on defense occur on switching up on screens, picks, posting up, help and weakside defense, lack of hustle, and just plain boneheadedness. Athletic ability on this level is much less than the NBA. Both Fields and Gibbs are solid defenders who play smart on offense and defense.

The most glaring example of a Pitt guy getting his ass handed to him on an individual, break down level was Scotty Hopson ripping up Gilbert earlier this year. Brown’s a great athlete but Hopson tore him a new one.

The most important statistic is beating good teams. We are looking at aggregated stats from 08-09 for an entire season. This year’s team still needs to run the Gauntlet through ‘Nova(2x), L’Ville, and WVU(2x), not to mention conference tournament and NCAAs. All fields are weaker now, so hopefully we can keep up or surpass our current levels.

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 01.20.11 @ 12:11 pm

The long two-point jump shot is, BY FAR, the worst shot in basketball.

Comment by Omar 01.20.11 @ 2:46 pm

SilverPanther, there’s no doubt that if Fields and/or Gibbs were a little quicker and longer it would leave less gaps on D (ie amount of time to close out on a shoot coming off a pick, etc). Our help D, in the past and now, does hide their athletic shortcomings. There’s no doubt. That being said, both of these guys had high b-ball IQ and defense is part athleticism, part smarts — anticipating/calling out picks/passes/drives — and these guys did/do that type of thing well enough to compensate. Besides its not like either were ever tasked with playing the best player on the other team – if they were longer/quicker they could make our defense a little more aggressive, but they do what they need to do and we’ve never lost a game because of either one of ’em.

Long way to go this season before we can say definitively who was a better team. Obviously ’08-’09 accomplished more, and even comparing the teams at this similar points in the season, ’08-’09 was more potent.

But one key thing is I think this team has a more room/capability to improve than the ’08-’09. By this point in that season, I think we knew what we had in ’09. I think there are a number of areas where the current team hasn’t peaked yet — maybe another gear for Brown and/or Taylor, some defensive adjustments, maybe a better idea how to optimize our rotation. Still, LOTS left to prove.

Comment by PantherP 01.20.11 @ 2:49 pm

Hopson also shot 10-13 in that game. Hopson probably won’t shoot 10-13 in a game the rest of his basketball career, college and professional.

Fields and Gibbs are not good or solid defenders. They are below average defenders that get beat off the dribble leading to help defense and missed rotations. Levance Fields was one of the top 1 or 2 offensive point guards in college basketball. Defensively he was very mediocre. Missing conditioning because of two surgeries on the foot hurt.

Gibbs just isn’t a great defender. He is an A+ shooter, an above average ball handler, but average or below in most other things. Doesn’t matter as long as he plays his game. Players shouldn’t do things that are out of their circle of competence. McGhee is a perfect example. He always plays within himself.

Comment by Omar 01.20.11 @ 2:52 pm

Hopson broke Gilbert 1 on 1 off the dribble, off of screens, and in his face. He taunted him at one point.

Neither Gibbs or Fields really ever get broken down off the dribble that much. Watch the games. It doesn’t happen to them any more than anyone else. The level of competition is rarely so talented that they can be exploited off the dribble. Plus they are smart, understand their limitations and don’t take risks. That’s why their steal numbers are low. No one is calling them defensive superstars or more than average. But neither was/is a liability that compromises team defense because of the notion that they are getting their ankles broken by their man. It’s sounds basketbally clever to claim that, but that’s not what happens and it’s not why we lose games.

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 01.20.11 @ 4:23 pm

Silver:

Dominic James, Kyle Lowry, AJ Price, Scottie Reynolds, Chris Wright, Kemba Walker, Deota Vaughn, Tory Jackson, Darren Collison, and Jonny Flynn all beg to differ on your assessment of our two most recent starting point guards defense of dribble penetration.

Comment by Omar 01.20.11 @ 5:15 pm

Hopson had the best night of his life and one of the best halves of any player in college this year. Brown maybe could have been a little rougher, but he wasn’t getting any help D, and Hopson was dropping shots even when Gil was right in his face. Sometimes you just can’t guard a guy on fire like that. The biggest problem in that Tenn game was that didn’t take away any of his options either so couldn’t keep him honest. We didn’t rotate well, didn’t cut-off passing lanes, McGhee was abused down low in the first half. We did adjust in the 2nd half btw, but our offense was stagnate the whole time so couldn’t make up any ground.

But that game, especially defensively, showed that we need to learn how to defend a team that has a multitude of good offensive weapons. Fortunately against Cuse, Pitt’s offense was so hot that first 9 minutes (and again later) and Cuse’s shooting so cold for long stretches, it didn’t matter.

There was noone that could replace what Fields did offensively (esp passing), during any game, so whatever we lost on D (not too too much, btw) was worth it. This team, most nights we can’t really replace what Gibbs does either. But, there will be nights where if Gibbs may not be hot shooting and someone else is, and if D is needed Gibb’s is momre replaceable. Dixon it seems is still tinkering with rotations to see what works when. He’s good at it (better this year with adjustment than in the past, is my impression) and this team gives him the ability to adapt better than the ’08-’09 team.
This year, everybody does (or can do) everything well. For ’08-’09, the roles seemed more defined and rigid and so when things went south there wasnt much that could be done. Not so with this team.

Comment by PantherP 01.20.11 @ 5:15 pm

Scotty Hopson was 3-3 from three and made 10 field goals in 13 attempts in that game. He hasn’t made 10 field goals in any other game this year despite taking more than 13 field goals in 10 games. Scotty Hopson won’t go 10-13 again this season even if he is in the gym by himself.

Comment by Omar 01.20.11 @ 5:19 pm

The point is that Hopson’s beating of Brown was an obvious one of beating his man one on one AND we lost the game. You won’t be able to find many obvious examples of the guys you listed when they beat our point guards one and one and we lost. They are all better athletes, but you’re overselling their ability to break individuals down- especially in the half court. Only perhaps Scottie Reynolds is at the mythical level that you are attributing these players to. And he pretty much beat everybody.

I agree with about 95% of your hoops analysis on here. But I watch every game twice. Usually live, then again on DVR- usually after reading post game comments here. Some things, like you may consider conventional wisdom, aren’t in fact what they are. This is one of them.

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 01.21.11 @ 2:48 pm

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