The more observant reader might have read the fine print under the title of this post and said to themselves “who the hell is Pabs and what did he do with Chas?” No worries, I assure you that Chas is fine; all charges were dropped after he had a change of heart and allowed me to start posting.

Anyway, welcome to Pitt by Numbers where we will take a look at Pitt basketball through the lens of tempo-free statistical analysis. Most of my data will gathered from Ken Pomeroy’s excellent website but if you know of any other places that provide great data like kenpom.com please let me know.

Today Pitt faces off against Tennessee at the Consol Energy Center (3:15pm, ESPN) so here’s a quick and dirty preview of things to look for in Pitt’s matchup with the Vols.

Pitt’s depth will be tested – We’ve all gushed about how this is Jamie Dixon’s deepest squad yet. Today will be the bench’s biggest test as the Vols do a better job than just about anybody in the nation at getting the other team in foul trouble. Tennessee shoots and absurd .59 free throws for every field goal attempt which is the most in the nation by a comfortable margin.

Also Tennessee has always historically played more of a transition game than Pitt and will probably look to try to lure Pitt into a making this game a track meet which will test Pitt’s fitness. Jamie Dixon will have to use his bench effectively to offset Tennessee’s ability to both run and get teams in foul trouble.

Guard play can lose this game, but it won’t win it – Pitt usually plays low turnover games. The Panthers rank 39^th in taking care of the basketball and 234^th in forcing turnovers (calculated by % of possessions that end in a turnover). Tennessee is very average in both statistics ranking 196^th offensively and 141^st defensively (there are 345 teams playing D1 hoops). Neither team looks like they are in a position to exploit the other in the turnover battle.

The Vols don’t rely on their guards for a lot of offense as 57% of their possessions are run through either 6’7” Scotty Hopson or 6’8” Tobias Harris. The Vols rank 303^rd in 3-pt field goal frequency (3-pt attempts/FG attempts) which would make them poor candidates to exploit Pitt’s 206^th ranked 3-pt FG defense. 

What Tennessee does do very well is defend the perimeter as they rank 40^th in 3-pt FG defense so Ashton Gibbs could be in for a long day today. Up and down the line it doesn’t appear as if either team is well equipped to exploit the other team’s perimeter weaknesses.

Will the Panthers continue to dominate the boards? – The Panther’s rebounding statistics have been downright silly through the first ten games this year. The Panther’s have grabbed 48.5% (1^st in the nation) of all of their misses and 73.5% (20^th in the nation) of their opponents misses. This obliterates the respective national averages of 32.8% and 67.2%. Tennessee will present a tremendous challenge on the glass for Pitt. Tennessee grabs 40.7% of their available offensive rebounds and 71.6% of their available defensive rebounds.

Tennessee will bring a size advantage into this game. They rank 40^th in effective height (height of players who play significant minutes weighted against the national average height on a position by position basis). Pitt ranks 118^th at 1.6” shorter across the board than Tennessee.

Because both teams rely on dominating the boards and neither team holds a distinct exploitable advantage anywhere else on the court, it isn’t hyperbole to say that rebounding is the key to winning today’s game.

Pomeroy has Pitt winning this game 83% of the time and predicts a 75-65 Pitt win. At the end of the day I think Pitt wins because they are a slightly better shooting team and they had the distinct advantage of sleeping in their own beds last night.

That said, if the Panthers don’t play their style game then Tennessee is in a very good position to take advantage and leave Steel City with a victory. All in all it will be a very interesting strength on strength matchup that I can’t wait to watch…if for no other reason than to take my mind off Pitt football. Hail to stats and Hail to Pitt.

Big game today. Liveblog will kick in sometime around 3:15. The game’s start is not necessarily going to be on time since it follows the thrilling Rutgers-Auburn game.

As usual it is a moderated chat. Luke will start out in control of things. Let’s try and stay on the basketball side of things. Just this once. I’m stuck on DVR delay due to family obligations.

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