Simulations are interesting, and seeing them used increasingly in sports creates an interesting question regarding the information input into the system.

The guys at WhatIfSports ran plenty of simulations for all the upcoming games this week. Including the Pitt-Utah game.

The Utes, expected to be TCU’s top challenger in college football’s top non-AQ conference, lose a tight one to Pitt, the Panthers winning more than 61% of the time but by an average of just a single point.

The score averaged out to 33-32. Not exactly the defensive battle expected.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team’s roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those player’s are removed from their team’s game simulation for that week.

Under normal circumstances, I would question the value of the simulations for the first game simply because the information is stale. It is based on the previous season.

In the case of this game, where the simulations result in a very, very slim win for Pitt it seems useless. Even slightly over 60% of the time with a Pitt the margin shows what a toss-up this game is.