As the Big 12 is in its slow motion death spiral, the Big East simply waits for the raiding to come east. What? You expected activity from the Big East leadership?

That isn’t the way things roll in Providence. As usual, it appears that the basektball schools are looking forward to the end.

A source with knowledge of the agreement that was entered into by the Big East schools following the ACC raid of 2003 states that in the event that 2 football members leave the conference, the football and non-football members can split the league without any penalty and retain their respective revenues, such as NCAA Tournament distributions.  What is surprising is that the Catholic non-football members comprise the faction that is pushing the issue.  If you recall, those schools met back in March to discuss “contingency plans”.  Apparently, the Catholic schools have decided that they will exercise the split option if 2 Big East schools leave the conference (no matter who they might be) and have informed Big East commissioner John Marinatto as such.  Financially, the Catholic schools would actually be in a fine position because they would have a large reserve of NCAA Tournament credits with Georgetown and Villanova having both made it to the Final Four in the last 4 years.  There is also the stability and cultural fit standpoint, where the Catholic schools are not enthralled with the “usual suspects” of Big East expansion candidates from Conference USA.

Now, that “fine position” would only be short term, because they would have to negotiate a new deal with ESPN — not to mention their own expansion. I’ve written about this before, but I will make the point, there aren’t any good TV contracts for basketball-primary conferences. The A-10 and C-USA are virtually invisible except when their best teams are playing out-of-conference games. They are small private institutions that don’t seem to grasp their relative irrelevance despite (or because of) being in major markets.

If this scenario is true, then the basketball schools could be the final trigger that should force ND into the Big Something. The Big Something would grab, say Rutgers and Pitt/Syracuse. The Big East is split — which makes me wonder what that would do the notice and penalty requirements — and ND would be stuck making a choice. They could join with the Catholic b-ball schools and hope that they would get a semi-decent TV contract and exposure. Or they could see if they could keep their same arrangement with the Big East football schools to play all but football — and be tied to the bowl deals.

Neither seems as appealing. Especially in the football side where ND could find itself in a conference that would have to expand and includes Memphis, UCF and ECU.

Of course, that assumes no other expansion takes place. And there are other scenarios that could include SEC expansion to take ACC teams and then grabbing Big East teams.

This is why playing the “what  if” game is much harder than people think. There are way too many permutations and schools that can get involved to really project too much.

Moving back to present and what is happening.

Here’s a nice list of revenues and expenses for the present and future Pac-15 teams.

The Pac-10 decisions should come late tomorrow. All signs point to Texas A&M deciding that it wants to go Southeast (Conference) rather than west.

Texas A&M has grown starry-eyed for the Southeastern Conference, an Aggies insider said Sunday, and A&M considers its overall athletic endeavors grander than the death of a conference rivalry game on Thanksgiving.

A&M’s board of regents likely will meet late this week — perhaps as soon as Thursday — to decide the Aggies’ sporting future, a person with knowledge of the situation said. And that future appears to be the SEC, as the powerful league to the east is prepared to lure A&M away from the clinging-to-hope Big 12, a proposed Pacific-10 affiliation and its storied league rivalry with Texas.

And the A&M fans are all for it. It is mildly surprising insofar as putting their rivalry game with Texas at risk. From geographic and cultural side, however, it makes sense. It would also make A&M one of the SEC’s top academic schools. Financially, I would say that it would be a wash for Pac-16 or SEC (but still better than being in the Big 12).

Of course without A&M, who would be the 16th Pac-10 team?

Not BYU. Not Missouri. Not Baylor.

Utah and Kansas are the only schools under consideration if the Big 12 breaks up and Texas A&M heads to the SEC. (If the Big 12 sticks together, then the Pac-10 will invite Utah and settle in as a 12-team league.)

And which school — Kansas or Utah — is the leader in the Plan B clubhouse?

“It’s too close (to call) at the moment,” the source said.

That’s understandable. Their TV markets, Kansas City and Salt Lake City, are essentially the same size.

Kansas has a powerhouse basketball program and is a member of the Association of American Universities, while Utah is a better fit geographically. And their football programs are comparable (with a slight edge to Utah).

The Pac-10/11/16 Commish Larry Scott has been reported to have made a trip to KC. He has also made trips to Salt Lake City, so you have to wait and see. Especially since last week it was all about how Kansas and K-State were essentially tethered together.

Not that the Mountain West Conference is trying to stay pat with just adding Boise State. In no small part because they know there is a chance they could lose Utah.

Mountain West Conference sources confirmed that the league is sending out feelers to Big 12 members that may be left out in any continued conference shakeup, most notably MU and Kansas.

Kansas State would be another option. Baylor, however, would not be.

On the same day the MWC officially added Boise State, sources said TCU will lobby the MWC against Baylor’s inclusion should the Big 12 school be left out of the impending conference realignment.

The league is leaving the door open to pluck other schools to boost its résumé to earn an automatic BCS bid. There are two more years remaining on a four-year evaluation period to get the automatic BCS bid.

With the addition of Boise State, the MWC hopes it can get a temporary BCS automatic qualifier status in 2012 and 2013.

Adding a couple of Big 12 schools would only help. And it looks as if more will be available.

That would be tough for a school like Missouri. They may need to be somewhere for a while, but they don’t know for sure. Or for how long. Or even when.

Kind of funny how Baylor has become more of a red-headed step-child than perhaps even Iowa State. The Mountain West won’t take them, because TCU isn’t going to stand for it. The Pac-10 has been clear about not taking them. The SEC? Ha.

Guess that will allow Conference USA to have a full contingent from the old SWC. Not to mention another team that could give Memphis a good game in basketball.

Missouri remains in limbo. Let’s be realistic. Like Pitt, they will end up somewhere. Either the Big Something or the SEC — since the SEC should look to add a 14th if Texas A&M comes aboard.

Their anxiety seems higher, if only because they seemed much closer to switching conferences sooner.

If nature abhors a vacuum, Mizzou’s constituents are being tortured by it, left conjuring worst-case scenarios that have it anywhere from in a mid-major to being homeless if the Big 12 crumbles in the wake of Colorado and Nebraska’s departures late last week for other conferences.

But as one BCS conference administrator put it Sunday, “The first domino hasn’t even fallen yet.”

The idea of some sort of joining between Big 12 leftovers and the Big East football schools does not seem to be a serious one. It comes up, but I think it is something of last resort, or simply as idle speculation. In no small part because who know who will be in the Big East and whether they would split from the b-ball side without being destabilized first. The Big 12 leftovers have a slightly more pressing need to figure things out, so timing is a big factor.

Then things come back to Big 10/11/12 further expansion. While Missouri stays on the back-burner, rumors of Maryland continue to percolate.

Maryland athletic director Debbie Yow said Saturday the university remains rooted in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

“I haven’t heard anything from the Big Ten,” Yow said, adding that Maryland President Dan Mote has not either, to the best of her knowledge. “The Big Ten is a terrific conference, but Maryland is a charter member in 1953 of the ACC, and we are happy in the ACC. These are deep roots.”

Sources told the Tribune on Friday that the Big Ten is interested in Maryland, a large public research institution in a Big Ten border state with two substantial TV markets ( Washington and Baltimore) and a decent athletic history.

There is a reasonable case to be made for Maryland to consider the Big Something. It seems Maryland fans aren’t entirely against the idea. Especially if the SEC hits the ACC for 1-3 teams.

Arguably the Big Something grabbing Maryland and Rutgers would be the same as grabbing two Big East teams in terms of BE stability. Clearly the ACC would look to the Big East for a replacement. Given Maryland’s overall athletic department quality and also being an AAU school they could be more appealing to the Big Something than Rutgers.

At least Pitt still on the list of the Big Something possibilities — at least if they go to 16.

Two good articles to read relating to expansion.

This one from Indiana talking about where the money would go.

I asked for an example of what [Indiana AD Fred] Glass could do with the increased revenue.

“Everybody knows at IU, we’ve had one of the greatest swimming and diving traditions in the country — Doc Counsilman, Hobie Billingsley,” Glass said. “Well, the diving scoreboard hasn’t worked in three years. It’s embarrassing: We got a letter from Tennessee, and Michigan said they wouldn’t come back to our pool because the timing and sound system were not acceptable. We’re talking about IU swimming and diving, and the facilities aren’t acceptable.

“Five years ago, my predecessor (former athletic director Rick Greenspan) hired a new baseball coach with the promise we’d build him a new stadium. It’s still not built. We need to replace the field hockey field. There are all kinds of projects like that out there, and football produces the kind of money that enables you to do those things.”

Assuming that’s how the money will be spent.

There is never enough money.

Forbes’ sports business blog weighs in with Pac-16 expansion and making money.

Suppose Pac 10 expansion includes Colorado, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Utah.  You’ve added NSI top 210 ‘host cities’ of Austin, Denver, Lubbock, Salt Lake City, and Oklahoma City, and you’ve added NSI top 50 ‘supporting cities’ of Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Tulsa.  Adding these 9 cities increases the Pac 10’s market size by approximately 10 million households, leading to a total estimated Pac 10 TV market of 26.7 million households…or 22% of U.S. households.

Conservatively using the Pac 10’s 2009 ROH of $5.79, their conference revenues would increase by nearly $58 million annually to $155 million annually.

This estimate likely understates the estimated boosts in conference revenue for 3 important reasons.  First, unlike the Big 10, the Pac 10 currently does not have its own cable network.  Given the financial success of the Big 10 Network, there is no reason to suspect that a ‘Pac 16 Network’ wouldn’t enjoy similar success from a cable network…and will likely have one by 2012.  As such, conference revenues will grow once the Pac 16 Network establishes itself.

Second, and perhaps more fundamental to why the conference’s ROH has lagged behind other conferences, is attributable to conference leadership which has recently overseen a large transition in senior administrators that will likely be a much more aggressive and forward-thinking regime…far more entrepreneurial and creative in extracting revenue streams from untapped sources.

Good piece.