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June 11, 2010

Patience Required

Filed under: Conference,Money — Chas @ 1:08 am

You know the real problem for me, with these conference expansion round-ups? It is too easy to lose track of a point that was trying to be made.

There was an actual point to my earlier post and the preamble.

You know, I think I have a vague notion of how this conference expansion, realignment and overall sanity will eventually end. It’s just that the trip there is going to involve a lot of missed exits, detours, mistakes and probably take a lot longer than expected.

So let me make it now.

If you are hoping or thinking that this whole conference insanity will even come close to be sorted out before the end of 2010, you are setting yourself up for a lot of frustration.

There are just too many schools, too many conferences, too many egos, and simply too much money involved for this to fully shake out for some time.

This is part of why I keep putting these expansion round-ups together. To show just how complicated and convoluted the whole process is. To make sure there is some record in a way to show how things are progressing to the eventual end.

If you want Pitt in the ACC, some rejiggered Big Mess (my official name for the idea of combining the Big East football schools with the Big 12 remainders), or Big Whatever — you are going to have to be patient. It is not happening right now.

Like it or not, Pitt is not a major player in this. Pitt is a piece, and has value — more than most in the Big East — but Pitt is not going to be a primary figure for some time.

Right now the major players are the Pac-10/16 and the SEC. There is a tug-of-war for Texas and Texas A&M. That has little to do with Pitt.

The  Big 11/12 is the first force that concerns Pitt, but for them, Pitt is at best a complimentary piece to expansion. A chip to try and coax ND into the conference — as Pitt is their 5th most played opponent (behind USC, Navy, Purdue and Michigan St.).

While Pitt has to wait for what the Big 11/12 does, the moves of the SEC are probably the real key.

What the SEC does is probably more important for Pitt. If the SEC makes moves that either expand their conference to 16 and/or snag some ACC teams, then Pitt truly gets into the expansion game. Pitt would be a top choice for them to replace a lost member and/or to help expand their conference to 16.

The ACC definitely seems disinclined to be proactive at this point, so do not expect some sort of preemptive move on their part.

Best guess, Pitt won’t be making any sort of announcement of leaving the Big East — or some new Big Mess until some time in 2011.





I apologize for not being up to the speed I should be on this, but do we think the BigEast’s hands are tied with any possible invites to the conference due to the saturation of basketball only schools?

HTscriptP

Comment by Cool Hand Nuke 06.11.10 @ 3:23 am

I don’t know about 2011 – I’m wondering if there isn’t a huge boulder being rolled right to the lip of the canyon and once Texas and/or ND makes a decision that is the tipping point for the mass scrambling around avalanche.

I think we got a taste of it when the firm “Colorado to PAC 10 announcement” hit yesterday. I’m not sure too many people would have though that particular transfer news would have shook loose yesterday if you had asked them on Monday.

Point is that IT is starting and I think it will gather momentum as schools and conferences begin to panic as they see others making moves. Actually – if you think about it the momentum has already begun since we have gone from ND being the focal point school to Nebraska and CU seeing what side of the bread the butter is on.

We’ll see how it shakes out but IMO the principal people involved in all of this are not paragons of patience and will run around with their arms flailing about as soon as any one conference decides to go to 16 teams.

Comment by Reed 06.11.10 @ 4:49 am

Reed, I agree. As more pieces start to fall into place, more and more schools will start panicing looking for their seat at the table. I am shocked at how fast this has all progressed from a few weeks ago. It does appear that the Big 12 is doomed.

Comment by Coach Ditka 06.11.10 @ 8:44 am

Seeing as how Texas is now going to either the SEC or PAC 16, and not the Big 10. I’d say that the focus of the Big 10 will be entirely on Notre Dame, that is the only prize left. If the Big 10 started this mess and only ended up with Nebraska, Mizzou, Rutgers, Syracuse and Pitt they would look pretty bad, especially if the PAC 16 got all the schools they wanted. So any word on Big 10 expansion is probably going to take awhile before their next step is announced.
I just wonder if the SEC robs the ACC, and the ACC looks to expand, would any Big East school leave if the Big 10 was still trying to figure out what is was doing?

Comment by Twink 06.11.10 @ 9:49 am

For ND to go to the Big 10, the Big East has to fail. The Big East is a chip in Notre Dame’s cache, and as long as it’s there, with it’s automatic BCS birth, ND will remain independent. The invite to Rutgers and/or Syracuse is close at hand.

I don’t think any BE school that is offered membership in the ACC would be able to turn that down. Pitt’s best chance at B10 membership might be to hope that the ACC extends an offer to Rutgers or Syracuse before the B10 does.

Comment by DanR 06.11.10 @ 10:00 am

I actually think the Big 10 will do expansion in stages unless ND comes aboard. I think they have Nebraska now, they might just wait to see what type of market that will bring them in the midwest TV markets, if it is sufficient, then take 3 Big East schools, killing the conference and taking ND. If they feel Nebraska doesn’t bring enough TV ratings then Mizzou will always still be there and ready to jump.

Comment by Twink 06.11.10 @ 10:30 am

A couple weeks ago, someone posted, ACC-ESPN ink deal, hurts expansion for any teams from Big East. Absolutely not true, all of the network/cable deals have rules in them if more/less teams added. So, for what it’s worth, the whole Pitt,Cuse,WVU,UCONN thing to the ACC may never happen, but, it won’t be because of the ACC/ESPN t.v. deal.

Comment by Dan 06.11.10 @ 10:48 am

Actually, here’s what I wrote.
link to pittblather.com

The one thing that is definitely wrong now, is the existence of the Big 12.

The point of the post, and I think it still holds, is it is a disincentive for the ACC to expand proactively. It isn’t the only reason, but it is a strong factor. Expansion is all about money and TV deals are the biggest soruce.

Yes, it is likely that the money could be expanded by adding teams. There is no guarantee that ESPN would automatically scale it to the same way. They would want to confirm the market would sufficiently increase the value. That comes into play. There is no way that a contract would have an automatic increase or multiplier without factoring in the school that came in or had to replace.

Do you think the ACC would expand if ESPN’s revised deal reduced any of the projected payouts to each school? They would have to act if raided, but not bring in more teams.

They might in time, but the new deal gives them more of a luxury to go slow and not act rash or without much more consideration.

Comment by Chas 06.11.10 @ 11:25 am

pitt to b10 is the best fit and would be my first choice. unfortunately, pitt seems to be at best the #6 choice for b10 after neb, mizzou, nd, cuse and rutg. ACC wouldn’t be awful. being left in some kind of depleted BE w/ the likes of central fl, memphis and east carolina would be the nightmare scenario.

Comment by scott 06.11.10 @ 11:15 am

I would much rather see Pitt in the ACC over the Big 10. It would be great to get the old State Penn rivalry heated up again but other than that the ACC is far more appealing in FB and BB.

Comment by Coach Ditka 06.11.10 @ 11:33 am

Thanks Chas, but, that is not the post I was referring too. Someone posted, definitely, that any chance of ACC expansion was over. That is the one I was referring too. As for the contract, no, perhaps not an automatic qualifier, but, definitely, a clause for a re-sitdown negotiations, would be included if expansion would come up. I mean, if an oppurtuniy comes up, whether very soon, or a few years down the road, the ACC isn’t going to have to say, “Sorry, can’t do it, we have a T.V. contract for 15 years”. It’s not a big deal, both parties know this, and I’m sure it was very much considered. Maybe not publicly, but, certainly handled.

Comment by Dan 06.11.10 @ 2:57 pm

Also, was there anything to the Texas-Texas Am to the Big Ten, or just another rumor this morning??

Comment by Dan 06.11.10 @ 3:04 pm

2011? I disagree about that. I bet you before camp Wannstach we will all know what major school is going where. Schools like Pitt, WVu, UConn, Rutgers, Syracuse, and South Florida will know by then.

Comment by Lou 06.11.10 @ 10:36 pm

Delaney must be so proud of himself. He ignited this mess and the Big XII will be history. Schools that had nothing to do with the Big Ego 11 such as Kansas and Kansas State will be screwed.

The best opportunity would be for Pitt to go into the 12 school Big Can’t Count Conference, but Pitt will get there only as a package with some other schools and I don’t know who else Delaney will try to get other than ND, who isn’t interested in being ruled by OSU and Michigan, who are the schools that really run the Big Can’t Count Conference.

After the jump to the Pac 10 is finished, the SEC is certain to raid the ACC, and I am waiting for this with much anticipation. Clemson, Georgia Tech and Florida State will flee the ACC at the first opportunity. The SEC has two schools in Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee, so adding teams in South Carolina, Georgia and Florida should not be a major problem. If this happens, Miami will bolt for the SEC if offered the opportunity.

Then the ACC will be dumbstruck and dumbfounded, having lost four schools and being back at seven, which is less than where they were before they raided the Big East.

I think, at that point, the presidents of Boston College, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest and NC State will have a pow-wow with the presidents of Pitt, WVU, UConn, Louisville, Cincinnati, USF and who doesn’t end up with a Big Ego 12 invite, be it Syracuse or Rutgers or both.

Yes, I left out UNC and Duke. Let ’em think they can play basketball against each other and ignore football.

They will realize that Swofford and the dufus in Providence need to be left behind and they form their own conference.

Then there will be a predominantly Eastern Seaboard conference with a school in Ohio, West Virginia and Kentucky and they will keep their BCS bid.

Comment by Penguins Fan 06.12.10 @ 9:24 am

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