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June 9, 2010

Now the S#%t Gets Real

Filed under: Conference,Money — Chas @ 11:41 pm

And so it begins

Nebraska does what Nebraska needs to do. They will head to the Big 11/12. The Big 11/12 will take them, and then pause.

“Jim is getting his hand forced, and he doesn’t like it,” the source told the Tribune.

But Delany might have no other choice if he wants to reel in Nebraska.

Another source with close ties to Big Ten officials suggested the league wants to add Nebraska and stop there – at 12 teams.

Whether it is a full hold, or merely a pause to see what happens next is unclear.

One thing I feel sure in assuming: Missouri is pretty much crapping their pants.

They don’t know what will happen to them now. Suddenly they go from a lock to not even mentioned in Big Something expansion.

The Big Ten remains interested in both Notre Dame and Rutgers, and Delany appears willing to wait for a final response from the Irish.

A source at Notre Dame, though, indicated that the school likely has “moved on,” with another saying that a top Notre Dame official assured the Big East that it intends to keep teams such as men’s and women’s basketball in the league.

If that’s the case, the Big Ten appears likely to cap at 12 teams.

On the bright side, I guess Missouri can still keep playing Kansas.

The next step in all of this: the Pac-10 is going to apply their own pressure.

Pac-10 officials declined to talk about the deal on the record because of the sensative nature of negotiations, but one with knowledge of the plan said, “It’s locked and loaded.”

Joining the Pac-10 in 2012 would be Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Colorado.

The new Pac-16 would divide into divisions, with the original Pac-8 schools aligned in one division and Arizona and Arizona State joining the six Big 12 schools in the other division.

Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott said last week that the league was working on possibilities that could be revolutionary.

Texas athletic director DeLoss Dodds reportedly told his coaches Wednesday that the Big 12 was breaking up and the Longhorns likely were headed to the Pac-10.

Even if Texas and others decide to stay in the Big 12, the Pac-10 would still make a move to expand by two schools, sources said, with Colorado being the No. 1 target.

And Colorado is ready to run West regardless — presumably because they aren’t going to take a chance on Texas politics screwing them. Yet, there will still be talk of a Big 12 – 2.

Officials from Texas and Texas A&M will meet Thursday morning in Austin in a last-ditch effort to save the Big 12 Conference. The regents, presidents and athletic officials from the universities are scheduled to meet with the hope of figuring out how to keep the conference together now that the departures of Nebraska and Colorado appear imminent.

Yeah? Do they trust Missouri? Is TCU and Utah good enough a replacement? I don’t see how they could. And they can’t trust that the Big 11/12 won’t make a move in another month or even another year.

My guess is actually that Texas and Texas A&M are meeting more to figure out if they can get to the Pac-10 without Baylor. Best guess. They will. It just feels like too many things are in motion to stop now. What does kind of amaze me is that unlike the angst from ACC beat writers and columnists in 2003, Pac-10-centric media folk have been almost giddy with excitement over this.

Still, if the Big 12 survives the great conference expansion madness of 2010 becomes more of a whimper. Or it is merely the beginning and the true madness comes in another year or even a few years later when the Big 12 is up for renewing its TV contracts. Or the SEC gets forceful. Or anything that could happen.

So what does this mean elsewhere?

They are antsy in the SEC that they have missed on the big fish, and are way too passive on expansion.

A Pac-16 would grab eyeballs from the Mississippi river to the Pacific Ocean.  Enormous television markets would be inside the league’s giant boundaries.  And a Pac-16 would include some of the most highly-respected and well-funded universities in the nation.

Do you really think a league with Arkansas, Mississippi State, Tennessee and a newcomer like Clemson could stack up?

I’m guessing some of you just said to yourselves, “The SEC will always be the king of football.  That’s where the money is.  That’s where the TVs are.  So the money will always be rolling in and the SEC will remain king.”

But there’s an iceberg-size hole in that Titanic of a thought.  If other leagues set themselves up to make more money than the SEC — not only possible, but likely — then those league’s schools will make more money over time than the SEC’s schools.

That’s more money for coaching salaries, facility upgrades, recruiting trips, etc.  The SEC currently has the highest-paid coaches and the best football stadiums in America.  If other schools pay their coaches more and build bigger, nicer stadiums, doesn’t it stand to reason that they would move to the top of the football world?

ACC teams are also nervous since the SEC might target them, and looking for a little proactive action from their leadership.

Regardless, I think the ACC’s apparent lack of readiness in all of this is shocking and a little alarming. As a conference that raided the Big East a few years ago, you’d think they’d be experienced in this arena. And maybe they’re prepared to act, but don’t want to tip their hand. If that’s the case, I’ll tip my hat at them. But every time I hear ACC Commish John Swofford speak, he just makes it sound like the ACC isn’t concerned about expansion and thinks it won’t effect his 12 teams.  I just wish the ACC would be the aggressor again and target schools like Pitt, Syracuse, and then maybe East Carolina (because you know the NC-focused conference is going to want that) and maybe another Florida team (like USF) because FSU and Miami will likely hold leverage over the conference with the treat of joining the SEC and want more FL team to join the ACC. If the ACC did that, they could be the first to 16, renegotiate their TV deal (which quietly still hasn’t been officially signed…

Yes, get that preemptive expansion going.

Even Conference-USA is gearing up for action.

Chuck Neinas, the former Big 8 commissioner (1971-80) and executive director of the College Football Association (1980-97), confirmed Tuesday that he has been hired by C-USA in a consulting role as the league braces for a significant shift in the college sports landscape.

“Right now, we don’t have any specific marching orders; we’re just analyzing,” Neinas said. “I think they hope to be in a position where they can be proactive, if required, and reactive if necessary. In other words, they just want to be prepared. … I guess we’ll know more next week than this.”

Neinas’ company, Neinas Sports Services, has become a major player as a search firm for schools hiring football coaches and athletic directors. In 2003, Sports Illustrated named him one of the 10 most powerful people in college football with a deep network of connections stretching all over the country from his home base in Boulder, Colo.

C-USA could lose ECU, Memphis and/or UCF if there is a raid on the Big East. At the same time, C-USA could be in a position to grab a school like Baylor — and reunite them with old SWC friends Houston, SMU and Rice — when the Big 12 crumbles.

And so things keep spinning.





Quick point to make in regards to the Big 12. If Nebraska and the other 6 teams leave, then the Big 12 loses it automatic BCS bid basically making the conference defunct. I think if that happens then the Big East football schools should try to join up with the left over Big 12 schools. It could make for a decent conference.

Comment by InRodWeTrust 06.10.10 @ 1:25 am

I think that the Big East should dump ND and add the 5 schools left over. Then you have both conference bids to the BCS for 12 teams and have a 20 team Super conference in Basketball. The TV umbrella coverage is from Milwaukee to Houston, Tampa Bay to UCONN when the schools form there own cable channel. That would be a
Monster of a move for a league that was all but dead

Comment by Wayne Weaver 06.10.10 @ 3:19 am

Wayne, I’d also ask dump the BE non-fb schools.

Comment by Steve 06.10.10 @ 6:40 am

20 is too many teams in a conference for basketball.

Comment by Fred 06.10.10 @ 8:23 am

Starting to warm to the idea of Pitt joining the ACC. Dissappointing that they’re not more active in all this. They were largely responsible for the demise of Big East football by taking BC, VT and Miami.

ACC – South
Duke
UNC
NC State
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Wake
Clemson
Virginia

ACC – North
Pitt
Syracuse
WVU
Uconn
BC
Virginia Tech
Maryland
Miami

This would essentially bring back the old Big East football conference (without the dogs) and set Pitt up pretty well for Basketball.

Louisville is left out, but if Miami or FSU flees for the SEC, they could be plugged in.

Comment by Boubacar Aw 06.10.10 @ 9:06 am

Maybe the ACC is being hesitant for one simple reason, they regret the last time they expanded and thats in the back of their minds at this point and time. The ACC brass would never admit this but there is something to it. Especially with BC.

Comment by JL 06.10.10 @ 9:09 am

Boubacar, switch Miami with VA and I think you got it.

Comment by Steve 06.10.10 @ 9:16 am

I’ve also heard some rumblings about Eastern Carolina joining the ACC. Can’t imagine how you would pick them over any of the schools listed above, but stranger things have happened. Like BC going to the ACC.

Comment by Boubacar Aw 06.10.10 @ 9:31 am

@Boubacar, nice plagerism… some of us also have PG plus

Comment by David Goldstein 06.10.10 @ 9:43 am

ESPN is now reporting that Colorado has already received an invite to the Pac-10/?, and invitations to the other 5 Big 12 South schools will follow quickly as long as the talks between Nebraska and the Big 11 don’t break down.

link to sports.espn.go.com

If this all happens over the next 36 hours, it will be interesting to see how it trickles down to Pitt. If the Big 11 stops with Nebraska, it may have no immediate effect. I guess we’ll wait and see what the SEC decides to do.

I have to admit, aside from the Penn State game, from my perspective as a fan (leaving aside the money issues), I find the prospect of joining the ACC much more exciting than the Big 11…and I’ll take fall roadtrips to Virginia and North Carolina over Indiana and Iowa.

Comment by Pantherman13 06.10.10 @ 9:47 am

Wow, I actually feel bad for Missouri. I mean, we may get left out too, but, other than a few obscure reports, kind of known we weren’t on the front lines for an invite. Missouri, pretty much put their middle finger up to the Texas League, and absolutely rightly so. 12 teams, 12 pieces of pie, not done that way down there. Maybe they’ll still end up on their feet, good school, solid programs.

Comment by Dan 06.10.10 @ 9:53 am

A quick question which I havent heard addressed….if all of this expansion and re-organization does go down in the next few weeks as some are projecting, when do teams begin play in their new conferences? Next Year? 2 years from now? 5 years…..???
Just curious if anyone has heard anything?

Comment by Coach Ditka 06.10.10 @ 9:55 am

Still have the fear of E.Carolina, Temple and Buffalo on my future conference season tickets. I have to admit, like several other posters, I think I have switched my first two wishes. Pittsburgh having a midwest feel to it, and PSU, was excited about the prospects of the Big 10, then the ACC was number two. I believe the ACC would be better for Pitt. I think we would be more appreciated in the ACC. Excellent road trips, fantastic hoops. I think most of the schools would say “pretty good football, excellent hoops, glad to have you”, where the Big 10 it would be, “who let you in here?” Ah, to dream of either, then the alarm goes off, “what time’s the Temple kickoff????”

Comment by Dan 06.10.10 @ 10:09 am

Coach – I can’t remember where I read it, but I think the Pac-10 is shooting for integration of the new schools by the 2012 football season. I’m guessing that timeframe would also hold for Nebraska to the Big 11.

The key for Missouri is whether the Big 11 decides soon whether it needs to go to 16 teams. I think they are still a top choice if the Big 11 decides to add more schools, but they’ll need to know relatively soon so alternative plans can be made. The problem – if Delany (as has been reported) is upset that his hand has been forced on the Nebraska front, he may not want to feel rushed into another decision.

I have to believe Nordenberg is not only monitoring this situation, but talking with many folks behind the scenes.

Comment by Pantherman13 06.10.10 @ 10:22 am

I do not have PG+ (I am too cheap). So any similarities are purely coincidental. Who wrote it on PG+? Not Ron Cook I hope, he is a dope.

Comment by Boubacar Aw 06.10.10 @ 10:31 am

Remember Nordenberg has many inside Nebraska connections and one can only hope he has used them to stay ahead of the curve.

Comment by Dan 72 06.10.10 @ 10:51 am

I also agree with the move to the ACC. ACC North would be Pitt, BC, WVU, UConn, Syracure, Maryland, VA Tech, Virginia. We keep are Backyard Brawl with WVU and renew are rivalry with VA Tech. In the ACC South the football powers would be an improving Miami, GA Tech, Clemson and Fla State. In basketball the ACC North is equal to the Duke/NC power of the ACC South. Also Pitt’s main basketball rivalries from the Big East are maintained. Pitt also no longer has to put up with the non football Catholic school crap as well as the Notre Dame Bowl tie-ins.

Comment by John in South Carolina 06.10.10 @ 11:18 am

Assuming the Big 12 collapses, I wonder what happens to the Big 12 Bowl Tie-Ins? How about the New Era New York Bowl? Whos going to play in that?? Maybe the Big East can improve their bowl package?

Its going to be really interesting to see how this plays out and how this affects the BCS? I read that the new Pac 16, might lobby to get two automatic bids (one for each division winner) and not have a conference championship game?

I hope the Big East stays together and grows. Id love to see the ACC become vulernerable to SEC expansion and the Big East comes and takes some of the schools that are left (ie Maryland, VA, WA tech, BC). It sounds far fetched, but look at how the Big 12 seemed stable and is now on the brink of elimination.. Its going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

Comment by Matt D 06.10.10 @ 11:20 am

Well, the money would be better in the Big N, but the sports would be better in the ACC. Particularly with the schools suggested above, this would make the ACC a tough football conference, and it would once again be the best BB conference in the country. As a fan, I like the ACC move better.

And I wouldn’t be surprised if the Big N CAN’T stop here, even if they wanted to. If the PAC-10 moves, this would probably force their hand.

Comment by Spanky 06.10.10 @ 11:35 am

If we have to leave the BE, count me firmly in the ACC camp…I’ve said it before, I’m just a fan, I don’t have to pay the bills. If we can turn a profit on the $4-5M a year the BE was paying us, we can certainly live off of $11 – $12M the ACC is paying. In FB, I think playing Miami, VaTech, and WVU is a lot more appealing than playing MICH, OSU, and PSU. Yes, I said it, I’d rather play WVU than PSU if I had to choose. I grew up and attended Pitt during the height of the Pitt/PSU rivalry, but it is dead. The Pitt/WVU rivalry is alive, well, and thriving. In BB, there is no choice between the two.

Comment by HbgFrank 06.10.10 @ 12:15 pm

This is clearly a pipe-dream scenario that has no chance of ever happening but entertain me on this.

There are currently 65 teams in BCS conferences. What if the NCAA or the BCS, whoever’s call this is steps in and says either
a) Football conference membership has to be capped at 12 or
b) We’re raising the minimum for a conference title game from 12 to 16.

Under scenario a) The ACC and SEC stand pat. The Big 11 adds the Huskers, the pac 10 either decides not to add anyone or adds CU and Utah, the Big 12 takes a hit but survives by adding TCU and BYU agreeing never to schedule BYU on a Sunday. The Big East is now the only conference without a conference championship game but it still survives.

b) We now head towards 4 superconferences. I won’t even try to pretend to know who goes where in this scenario but the end result is a net loss of only 1 in teams who can get an auto-BCS bid. Maybe a few teams out of ND, Utah, TCU, BYU or ECU ends up displacing a few teams currently in Auto-bid leagues but there are probably a few teams that disserve to get the boot.

As much as the ACC expansion sucked, the macro result was more teams in auto-bid leagues. This time around you could see teams lose their bid just because they’re geographically undesirable and that reeks to the high heavens.

Unfortunately there is probably something fiscally wrong with my scenarios and exploiting student-athletes is now as American as apple pie.

Comment by Pabs 06.10.10 @ 12:41 pm

ESPN is reporting the Colorado has officially accepted an invite to the Pac 10. Also, that it is only a matter of “who signs next” for the rest of the Big 12 schools they have invited.

Comment by HbgFrank 06.10.10 @ 12:53 pm

ESPN reports that Colorado is moving to the Pac-10. It could be announced today.

Comment by JW in Raleigh 06.10.10 @ 12:53 pm

Here we go. Big XII destroyed.

Comment by Chris 06.10.10 @ 1:16 pm

Can the Big East oust teams that don’t carry football and pick up Kansas, Kansas State, etc?

Comment by Teddy 06.10.10 @ 1:23 pm

No, forget Kansas. The BE already took care of basketball. This time they must think of football and for eastern schools, middle of nowhere KS makes no sense.

Again what makes most sense is some marriage with the ACC

Comment by JoeP 06.10.10 @ 1:58 pm

I guess the next question is whether Texas wants to go west or go east…the answer to that will greatly affect the direction of the Big East.

Comment by Pantherman13 06.10.10 @ 2:12 pm

As much as I would like to merge teams with the ACC, I can’t stomach the thought of playing in a conference where John Swofford is the commissioner. Sure, Mike Tranghese was a complete tool, but I prefer the current BE leadership to Swofford. My hope is that the SEC does try to expand, poaching a few choice ACC schools from the south (Miami, Fla State, Clemson, Ga Tech) leaving the ACC is a precarious position. I think at that point, the Basketball heavy schools would consider a move the the BE (MD, NC, Duke, Wake). Break off the BE Basketball only schools into their own conference, (maybe a sister conference where Pitt would still get to play Georgetown, St. Johns, etc. either once a year or once every other year.) With Villanova’s Football team coming on, they would probably be able to replace Rutgers, if they choose to go to the Big N < 20. Let’s see, would this be a decent BBall conference?
Pitt, WVU, Villanova, Cincinnati, Duke, NC, Maryland, Wake Forest, Louisville, Connecticut, Syracuse, South Florida……Yeah, I think it would…..

Comment by DanR 06.10.10 @ 2:23 pm

[…] As we all know, Nebraska is heading to the Big 11/12. I think the question that most people want answered is: How are they going to tweak their “ten” logo now? […]


What am I missing? The Pac-10+ will be very strong (even with sanctions against USC). The SEC will continue to be an absolute powerhouse and it stands to gain from a Big 12 collapse. The Big 11+ has added a legendary football power with Nebraska and Mizzou stands in the wings with Rutgers. The ACC seems to be in Sleepy Hollow snoozing in the warm southern sunshine, however, I believe that it has a plan in place to replace the possible loss of Miami, FSU, Ga Tech and Clemson. I think that the Big East is DEAD!!
The Conference couldn’t hold BC and will never be able to stop Rutgers from moving in to the Big 11+. Syracuse was strongly desired by the ACC during the first expansion move and you can bet that The Orange are at the top of the list now.
WVU could possibly be headed to the SEC depending on how many teams it takes from the Big 12 and ACC. So where does this leave Pitt? WE are trapped in no man’s land between, Louisville and Cincy. Oh, I forgot to mention the South Florida Bulls. Does the Big East have a plan beyond being a basketball league? Does it add Temple, Buffalo, Central Florida and Memphis? BCS bid?
NO WAY!! Pitt needs help and the ACC is a must if Pitt Football is to survive!!

Comment by Isnore 06.10.10 @ 3:25 pm

One additional thought–I love college basketball and Pitt and The Big East without question is at the top of the “food chain” when it comes to round ball. But, the $$$$$$$ is in football. Repeat,
the $$$$$$$ is in football. Notre Dame plays in the Big East for a chance to have a decent seed in the NCAA Tourney…..but, NDU plays football for $$$$$$. So, forget about all this basketball nonsense, the changes taking place are STRICTLY about football and I am scared. Pitt has a very difficult time drawing more than 45,000 for a game. The University does not “travel well” when it comes to the number of Pitt fans attending bowl games. Our spring game (yes, I know the weather was miserable) drew only 6,500 fans. Don’t be lulled in to thinking that we are a must for the ACC.. The Big 10 (now 12 with Nebraska will never add Pitt. Please tell me how this plays out for us if the ACC decides to pass on The Panthers.

Comment by Isnore 06.10.10 @ 3:38 pm

I know, its probably just a rumor, but someone on the Big East Boards is reporting a link from a Texas? tv station that UT and TAMU have applied for admission — TO THE BIG TEN!

Fascinating to think about.

– Did Nebraska call Texas’ bluff?

– Was texas really bluffing?

– Could this be a preemptive strike?

– Did Texas know that the Big 10 wanted them more than Nebraska, especially since Texas would be more attractive to ND?

– Did the Big 10 know that Nebraska rumors would force Texas to move?

– Will nebraska be announcing ANYTHING tomorrow?

– Does Donna really love Brad, or will she stay with that weasel Johnny?

This and more, tomorrow, on As The Greed Turns.

Comment by Spanky 06.10.10 @ 6:37 pm

It’s BS.

link to twitter.com

There’s a Kansas City TV report saying Texas and A&M to the Big Ten. That would be news to those schools.

There is still the “Tech problem,” and that isn’t going away.

Comment by Chas 06.10.10 @ 6:51 pm

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