Before the Pac-10/16 stuff started, there was a theory among many writers and bloggers that Notre Dame was the key to expansion. Now, this has been ebbing and flowing for months. At times there were theories that the Big 11 expansion was as much an elaborate ploy to finally force the Irish into the Big Something.

In recent weeks, the theory went that if the Irish were sufficiently concerned about the changing landscape of college athletics, they would not want to be left behind and thus would join the Big 11/12/14/16. The Big Whatever would stop at 12 without any further expansion.

They would have no need because they got one of the big prizes and no other expansion candidate could deliver the return anywhere close to what ND offered. Then all would be settled down, and most of the conferences would remain unchanged. That theory is still out there. If anything, it seems to be picking up steam once more. Even if nothing is happening.

I don’t believe this applies any longer. This has nothing to do with Notre Dame and issues of their name recognition, diminishment of brand, whatever. This has to do with the issue of expansion now being far more than merely the Big 11 and the Big Ten Network.

It seems almost laughable in a way. The Big 11 and Commish Mike Delany are portrayed as crazed animals with bloodlust for expansion that must be satisfied. Somehow getting ND would satiate that lust. They would be so gorged on their big get, than they would with 3-5 “lesser” pelts.

ND is no longer a key to expansion. They are a piece of it. A valuable piece and desirable, but they are merely a piece now. They only have one conference that wants them and they would consider — The Big 11. They would never fit or go to the SEC. The ACC would be awkward geographically (and there is no way they would be happy to see BC as a full conference partner). They won’t do the Big East all the way. It leaves only the Big 11.

Yes, the Big 11 wants ND. Wisconsin AD Barry Alvarez doesn’t seem to have a filter to stop from speaking, and confirming what everyone knew. God bless him for it. I’ve been entertained and informed.

The only way for ND to go by all accounts, is when it is sure that the situation is radical enough that it has no choice. In other words, when it is politically safe for the ND leadership to tell the alums and fake alum of ND that they have no choice. The Pac10/16 probably has done more to further this possibility than any Big 11 expansion.

The Pac-10/16 officially takes Texas off the table for all Big Something speculation. Not because there wasn’t interest on both sides. But because of the Texas politics would force the swallowing of Texas Tech as well. And that just won’t happen in the Big Something.

The Pac-10/16 may end up boxing in the SEC more than it expected. For all the talk SEC Commish Mike Slive had of waiting and seeing about expansion — and being one to finish things, they stand to miss big. If the Pac-16 expansion happens it means that the SEC cannot claim new markets west as it probably expected. It can only opt to further consolidate the Southeast (Florida St., Miami, Clemson, GT) or try to peel off the Virginia schools (which I doubt seriously appeals to either side) from the the ACC.

I don’t believe that Dennis Dodd has inside info, but this scenario makes more sense than the Irish joining the Big 11 and the conference stopping at 12.

The latest scuttlebutt Monday morning has to do with Syracuse being the key to prying Notre Dame loose for the Big Ten.

If Missouri and Nebraska say yes to the Big Ten, I’m hearing that then either Pittsburgh or Rutgers would be paired with Syracuse to form an expanded eastern boundary of the new league. The key, apparently, is taking The ‘Cuse into the Big Ten. The fit already looks good. Syracuse chancellor Nancy Cantor is a former chancellor at Illinois and provost at Michigan.

In this scenario, the addition of Syracuse collapses the Big East and potentially forces Notre Dame to find a conference home for its minor sports. Not to mention a conference home for football.

Syracuse or not, losing 2 of the 3 members whether Rutgers and Syracuse, Rutgers and Pitt or even Syracuse and Pitt will be enough to break the Big East. That was already a given. Other than that, the scenario — when coupled with the Pac-16 possibility would seem to be that final blow.

But if ND still resisted, the situation would be too risky for the Big 11 to just stop at 14. The idea of waiting a little longer for ND — and then bringing someone else in with them carries too much risk.

They risk an ACC expansion/replenishment that would snatch the more desirable eastern teams. The latest ACC contract, and the idea of far less conference competition for TV deals raises the chance of the money gap — the biggest asset to the Big 11 in attracting new members — being narrowed by the time they ND is ready.

The Big 11 wants ND, but expansion won’t wait for the Irish. But it also means the Big 11 has to dismantle the Big 12 and the Big East no matter what. ND increases advertising dollars and the conference’s brand.

Doing that, though forces the ACC and SEC to do something. The Big 11 did start all of this. Whether they realize it or not at this point, they can’t take a half-step now. They have to finish expansion. They still need new subscribers at a higher price. That comes with expansion into new states.

The keys in this are all in the Big 12 at this point. It is what those members do that determines the course of expansion in 2010. Not Notre Dame and the Big 11.

Is Texas and the other Big 12 schools really serious about the ultimatum? Or is this a case like VT and the Big East where the affirmations are sincere until that offer is actually made, because there is no way to really enforce it?

Are Missouri and especially Nebraska ready to slam the door on the Big 12? If the reports are true, they have until Friday to renounce their lust for Big 11 money and reaffirm their commitment to the Big 12. If they do not, then Texas and most of the Big 12 South are done with the conference and it is off to the Pac-16

At that point, Nebraska and Missouri would absolutely have to prostitute themselves to the Big 11 — and possibly send ninjas to kill the Notre Dame AD and president. Because otherwise, they and the other four left behinders of the Big 12 might as well change their name to Big East, Western Division (Semi-serious there. Move Louisville to that side and you have two 7-team divisions and a decent 14-team conference that has a hell of a basketballs side to it: Louisville, Kansas, K-State, Mizzou, WVU, Pitt, Syracuse, UConn and Baylor).

Notre Dame plays a significant role in expansion, but they do not control it. In many ways, neither does the Big 11 at this stage.