Still trying to digest everything from yesterday. And everyone else is too. Here are a couple other blog-boy round-ups and speculations.
If this goes down, the logical conclusion is that it accelerates the possibility and speed with which it happens of 4 16-team conferences. It would also produce the scenario where those 64 teams break away from the NCAA.
The SEC perspective is somewhat flummoxed. Texas A&M wouldn’t be a bad addition, but the role Texas politics plays in all of this remains to be seen.
Let’s face it. Texas has become the big fish in this. Bigger than ND since the Pac-10, SEC and Big 11 all want and are willing to pursue Texas. ND only has a suitor in the Big 11. If anything, I think ND has to be getting nervous. They had counted on the Pac-1o to remain in their very conservative ways, and the suddenly that assumption no longer holds true.
Still, the speculation begins. If somehow the Pac-10 goes to 16 by adding Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Colorado, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. Then the SEC will have to act as well, and go towards locking down the Southeast with Clemson, Florida St., Georgia Tech and Miami. That would have the ACC scrambling to fill in 4 teams from the Big East — but they would have to wait on the Big 11 for a couple choices.
Suddenly the Big 11 would have no choice but to go all the way to 16, because the options would be dwindling. They are no longer driving the expansion bus. They may have started things, but control is dwindling. Mizzou and Nebraska seem like no-brainers and would be begging — though an intriguing notion would be Kansas fighting like hell to try and get in as well or even over Mizzou. Missouri, by the way, is still ready to go.
Chancellor Brady Deaton said Missouri remained a proud member of the Big 12, but “we’re going to do what’s best for our institution.”
“We’re not shutting our ears to anything,” Deaton said as he walked into a meeting of Big 12 presidents. “I’m sure every school here has a responsibility to its own institution as primary responsibility. Conference realignment is something we do for our athletic programs. That’s what we’re working on right now.”
Yeah, and suddenly Nebraska has to hope the Big 11 goes forward or they could end up on the outside. If anything, the Pac-10 rumors put an end to some wistful thinking that nothing too radical would be happening.
As much as anything, ND would almost be boxed in. That prized independence would be the millstone on their neck that they would either have to shed or let drag them down. The Big 11 could no longer wait and see. That, of course, would effect how many invites go to the Big East. Is it Rutgers, Pitt and Syracuse or just two of the three?
If one gets left out, obviously the ACC would take them along with UConn. But then who? The ACC likes its academic reputation as well, and they would be looking at two from the pile of Cinci, Louisville, WVU and USF.
But back to the present.
I love that the Big 12 commish canceled a press conference and then had to get past the reporters.
A few hours after a media report introduced a new threat to the league’s future, Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe canceled a scheduled news conference, skipped past a crowd of reporters at the InterContinental hotel and stepped into an elevator, inexplicably exiting with countless questions left unanswered.
“There will be no further comments until the conclusion of tomorrow’s meetings,” said Beebe, who was expected to end Thursday’s session with a news conference alongside Texas President Bill Powers before he inexplicably left the hotel.
As reporters continued to lob questions at Beebe, the commissioner smiled and said, “I used to be an investigator, so I know how to ask all the good questions.”
And with that, the elevator doors closed and the college sports world froze for at least another day.
Roughly translated, “How do you keep a room full of assholes in suspense? [pause for someone to ask how] I’ll tell you tomorrow.”
Should be a very interesting day. The SEC has their final day of their meetings. Guess what is expected to be discussed?
The Big 12 has to say something tomorrow on their last day. Will it be a eulogy? Good luck on getting anything out of SEC Commish Mike Slive.
What does seem strange in all of this is why Texas Tech among the Pac-10 invites?
One person with knowledge of the college football landscape offered an interesting explanation. The Texas political scene might make it difficult for Texas and Texas A&M to exit, leaving Tech in a husk of a conference. Rather than risk losing the Longhorns and Aggies, the Pac-10 opted for Tech, which has been extremely competitive in football and has added capacity to Jones AT&T Stadium. Three members in Texas is not necessarily a bad thing.
Kansas has great basketball tradition and some name value, along with bringing the Kansas City market. But the Pac-10 would have probably have to take Kansas State along with KU.
Not sure if Kansas would have had to take K-State. But the politics of Texas may have played a role.
An e-mail sent by the president of Ohio State University hints at a focus on the University of Texas as part of an expanded Big Ten.
Ohio State President Gordon Gee told Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delaney in an April 20 e-mail that Gee had spoken with University of Texas president Bill Powers.
The e-mail was obtained by The Columbus Dispatch through a request of university correspondence related to Big Ten expansion proposals.
Gee writes in the e-mail that Powers would welcome a call to say they have a “Tech” problem.
No explanation for the ” ‘Tech’ problem,” however, is forthcoming. Though, Texas Tech hardly seems enamored. At least at the moment. Given TTU seemed to be likely to face a scramble for a home, they should be thrilled not to be left behind. Then again, like many of us in the Big East, it just seems more of a preference to remain in the present league without any expansion losses.
Kansas knows they are in great danger. That would explain why they are praying that somehow, someway Texas just wants to stay in the Big 12. (In some ways, this reminds me of the way people reacted when Miami had one foot out the door of the Big East.)
Still, only interest on the part of Texas, mighty Texas, makes the whole thing fly. Texas and only Texas can save the Big 12 by staying put. That would be the same Texas that inspired jealousy from other Big 12 members for earning a bigger TV revenue share than the other schools.
It’s funny how quickly one potential move from another conference can or at least should make all the Big 12 schools rethink the need for equal revenue sharing.
The story breaking right before the conclusion of the Big 12 meetings and the beginning of the Pac-10 meetings certainly didn’t do anything to damage UT’s already massive bargaining power.
Oklahoma is in an interesting spot. They have been big on supporting the Big 12, but they might have to back away from that. The Sooners are lucky. Like Nebraska, they have the history and fanbase that makes them attractive to other conferences even without a huge base TV market.
Confused? Head spinning? Mine is. Given the growing number of loose ends and increasing number of players in this story — from the schools themselves, to the conference commissioners, to the ADs to the school chancellors and presidents — it is getting harder to keep it straight.
Back later ( I hope) with a more Pitt-centric view on the whole mess.
So if I understand all of this correctly, the SEC could act as a stop-gap to expansion-palooza IF the Big10 only adds Big12 corpses. If the Pac10 really adds six from the Big12, the SEC doesn’t technically “have to” expand. They’re still sitting pretty on a pile of cash (although from what I understand, they could re-open their TV contract with expansion).
So if the SEC decides to stay put, AND the Big10 goes for Mizzou, Nebraska and/or ND, the BE could be safe. But if the SEC goes super-conference, they likely raid the ACC – which in turn, raids the BE.
Would being in a picked apart ACC really be that much better than the current Big East?
What happens in the next few months can have a dramatic effect on the athletic programs at Pitt .. and for that matter, the popularity of ‘Pitt Blather’
There are currently sixty-five teams in power conferences, plus Notre Dame. That’s sixty-six teams. To me, Boise State, Utah, BYU and TCU are all in the argument to get in as well. So there are 70 teams looking for invites. Let’s pretend for a minute that those four teams will NOT get invited. Then you still have to find two teams to leave out if we’re going to four mega conferences. It’s pretty easy to see Baylor being one of them. The other? I would submit it could be Texas Tech (who could then team with Baylor, TCU, UTEP, BYU, Utah, and Boise State for the makings of a new conference of their own, possibly with Nevada, UNLV, the New Mexicos, Tulsa and Memphis…though that spans a lot of territory).
Now you have 64 teams. Needing four 16 team conferences, and pretending to care at all about geography for travel purposes, here is the most reasonable breakdown:
French and Indian War Conference:
Boston College
Connecticut
Pittsburgh
Penn State
Syracuse
Rutgers
West Virginia
Ohio State
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Maryland
Duke
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Cincinnati
Bible Belt Conference:
Clemson
Florida State
Miami
Georgia Tech
Florida
Georgia
Mississippi
Alabama
Mississippi State
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Arkansas
Auburn
South Carolina
LSU
South Florida
Heartland Conference:
Louisville
Michigan
Michigan State
Northwestern
Indiana
Purdue
Notre Dame
Illinois
Kentucky
Iowa State
Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Missouri
Kansas
Kansas State
Oregon Trail Conference:
Stanford
Cal
Oregon
Oregon St
Washington
Washington State
UCLA
USC
Arizona
Arizona State
Texas
Texas A & M
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Nebraska
Colorado
Of course, it will never happen because people want conferences with “National Appeal” but consider this:
My plan gives the French/Indian War conference 15 of the top 50 media markets, at an average of 24.2 (1, 4, 7, 9, 18, 23, 24, 26, 27, 30, 33, 34, 39, 43, 46).
The Oregon Trail conference gets 13 of the top 50 media markets, at an average of 20.3 (2, 5, 6, 10, 12, 13, 16, 20, 22, 28, 37, 45, 48).
The Heartland gets 9 of the top media markets at an average of 25.8 (3, 11, 15, 21, 25, 32, 35, 41, 49) but gets Notre Dame, the highest appeal of any team in the nation.
The Bible Belt gets 10 of the top media markets at an average of 29.8 (8, 14, 17, 19, 29, 36, 38, 40, 47, 50) but gets the teams that have had the highest national appeal as a group (Florida, Miami, Florida State, LSU, Alabama) over the last twenty five years.
Three top fifty media markets are excluded: Salt Lake City (31), Las Vegas (42) and Albuquerque-Santa Fe (44). They all fit geographically with the Oregon Trail, but none of their “home teams” are in that conference.
Okay, fire away…
I agree with the comments about instability and the BCS, obviously. I guess that’s part of why I’d blow the whole thing up and start over.
The NCAA has to come up with a plan and take control before we have an NIT in football. Maybe even an NBA/ABA thing which gives me an excuse to watch Semi-Pro again. Universities could very well be scrambling to perform out of their minds just to have someone with a powdered wig turn his head to watch the dancing monkey. I smell sanctions galore coming. Nostradamus predicted this but decided to omit it since it was his most blasphemous prediction of all.
I am enjoying the waiting game. If this kills the BCS then this is a glorious time for me. To have outlived that joke of a system is glory sewn on a blanket. We are going to have to wait and see if all this talk is for real though. Time to upgrade to high def so I can see the tears come at me like a flood. Fun!
If anyone is still debating the power and influence of college football, just consider that Kansas, which has one of the top 5 basketball programs of all time, has to be sweating bullets right now.
There is simply no argument that creating an exclusive league or group of leagues is violative of anti-trust law. Nothing would prevent the remaining schools from continuing to play football, have bowl games, award trophies, et cetera.
You can’t have more than the 70 teams I mention for the same reason we’re talking about this at all: money. How do you make five 16 team conferences make any sense at all? How will you sell to Texas that it is splitting revenue with North Texas, when one of those teams is a top-5 most marketable college brand, and the other is barely D-I?? You can’t. That’s why I said there would have to be a conference of “mid-majors”. It’s all about community of interest. There is a clear community of interest among the Big Ten schools. Add in Notre Dame, community of interest survives. Missou? Maybe. Texas? Definitely. But University of Maine? No. UNLV? No. Indiana State? No. Butler? No. Do those schools have decent athletic programs in certain sports or else fit into the Big Ten’s geographic model? Sure. But they don’t have nearly the revenue-generating potential of the “elite 70”. And within that elite 70, there are still further sub-categories that probably make four 16 team conferences a tough sell right now. But it is probably the most likely long-term solution.
As for 20-team conferences, at that point, why have a conference? You’re not going to play everybody every year (like the BE now), you’re not going to play everybody every TWO years, and you couldn’t even play everyone in your division every year.
What the NCAA really needs to do is change the rules to allow conference championship games for 10 team leagues, and require that all leagues are 10-12 teams. The fact that you can be a league with any number of teams is pretty stupid.
Pitt being included “when all is said and done” requires that to come to pass. There’s a very real chance that SOME but not ALL of this will happen, and the hierarchy will change dramatically. There’s no rule that requires there to be six or even four power conferences. There could well be three power, and three high/mid majors. And many people feel there already are! In that scenario, it’s VERY easy to see Pitt left out, because Penn State and Ohio State already bring all the media markets Pitt would bring, but with better brand recognition, marketability, and fan dollars spent.
I purchased my Iphone 3 months ago, it just crashed, so I brought it to At&t (where I bought it) and they told me to go to the Apple store…30 wasted minutes later I’m at the Apple store surrounded by pretentious pricks who tell me my Iphone needs to be replaced. Great, except they are only willing to replace it with a refurbished model! …….What a scam, buy a new iphone 3GS for $500.00 and in three months time Apple will replace it with a formerly defective replacement phone, which I could have bought initially for half the price, and in turn it voids my original warranty since it’s not a “new retail phone”…..what should I do other than take it from Apple and At&t?
Pissed off in Pittsburgh
However, what if the SEC goes after Miami and FSU as rumored?
Pitt Conference Schedule
I even put a few stinkers in, to be fair
Michigan N.C. St. Temple
Northwestern Miami Louisville
Michigan St Ga. Tech Cincinnati
Iowa Clemson Syracuse
Ohio St. Wake Forest E.Carolina
Purdue Virginia Memphis
Illinois Fla. St. UCONN
Penn St. Va. Tech WVU
Maybe I’m missing something, but, good grief, I’m hoping we’re not clinging to a fractured Big East football league when this is all said and done. Maybe we can Villanove to go to Div 1 and get Central Florida?? If someone from the Big 10 or ACC calls, please, get the hell out of Dodge!!!
Which conference schedule would you rather have??
Michigan…………NC STATE……….Temple
Northwestern……..Miami………….Louisville
Michigan State……Georgia Tech……Cincinnate
IOWA…………….Clemson………..Syracuse
Ohio State……….Wake Forest…….E.Carolina
Purdue…………..Virginia……….Memphis
Illinois…………Fla.ST…………UCONN
Penn St………….Va.Tech………..WVU
I realize these are theorhetical, and if the Big 12 south goes to the pac 10, the sec might grab some ACC teams, please, someone tell me E.Carolina, C.Florida and Temple aren’t on my home season tix package in a couple years!!!!!
I think the ACC line-up proposed by wbb would be terrific. Some people are complaining about the Big PAC XVI and SEC being the top dogs in FB, with the Big 10 + 6 third, and the Big ACC 4th. If we land in the Big ACC, the argument goes, we will lose out in FB (though BB will be great). However, I would suggest that Pitt in a Big ACC would have an easier path to a BCS FB berth than it would in any of the other conferences.
It is going to be pretty nerve-wracking over the next 6 – 10 months, but I’m confident (if we wind up with 4 mega-conferences) that PITT will do just fine.
Aside from having some proximity to NYC, they are mediocre in FB, and dreadful in everything else. Nor are they an academic powerhouse, exactly. On all fronts other than proximity to NYC, they lag behind Pitt. I just don’t get it …
The inability of the NCAA to control, or even influence for that matter, what is going on is the crux of the problem. All we can do is have faith that Norenburg will be one of the best poker players at the table and gets some luck (if he is even at the table).
No reason to get the blood pressure up because what will be will be.
As for the ACC football being weak, sure, I agree, but, still a step above the Big East, definitely has a geographical and conference feel, and, frankly, I’d rather be playing Maryland, Virginia, Va Tech and the Carolina schools than UCONN, Temple and Louisville. Just my opinion.
As for the hoops, the ACC would be fantastic.
No blood pressure up, not at all, just throwing some opinions back and forth, on an interesting topic, that will have a big impact on Pitt!!
Hail to Pitt!!
This Conference can remain in the BCS (or whatever follows) it is a decent football and Basketball conference. Buy up the rights to the Pre-Season NIT and then take 6 of this conferences strongest B-Ball teams to MSG vs. invites like UCLA, DUKE, NC, ND etc.
Otherwise we (the remnants of Big East football) wait to see what happens and hope we don’t end up in the MAC, WAC or Conference USA.
How does this PAC 10 thing affect Pitt’s chances of joining the Big 10 or another conference?
Is this good or it makes our situation worse?
I still think you’re overestimating the reach of the legal process. Also, I really like the idea of mandating 9-team conferences. Everyone plays everyone every year. But that’s not going to happen either.
Bigger conferences, to me, makes eeven less sense, because broadening the reach on the geographic map is so much less efficient.
well, if the big 12 south (-baylor, +colorado) decides to join the pac-10 as advertised, that would close off all of the western expansion options for the SEC. Which means they’d have to look east for expansion: ACC schools or possibly WVU. If/when the ACC is looking to replace members or expand, then Pitt has to be high on their list for market, academic, and athletic reasons. I would say Pitt is still on the Big Ten’s list, though somewhere around the margin because we don’t bring new tv territory.
If the ACC loses some southern members to the SEC, and the Big East loses, say Syracuse, Rutgers, and Notre Dame to the Big Ten, there might be some sort of merger between the ACC and Big East. I imagine the basketball-only Big East schools would be forced to split off into their own conference.
Jamie Dixon would not be very happy to be playing in a conference that is a big step down from the Big East. O.K. football is king, so look at the ACC.
It is obviously difficult to predict what is going to happen to a Miami, FSU or Ga Tech, however, if they stay in the ACC and PITT, Syracuse and UConn are added ….WOW!!
Great geographical positioning covering the entire East Coast. Solid academics, colleges with great football tradition (not UConn) and a BASKETBALL LEAGUE that would ring cash registers for TV advertisers throughout the cold weather months. This would be a conference that TV media
moguls could easily understand and support.
Let Rutgers go to play Minnesota and Indiana in football. Let Rutgers go to get destroyed in basketball in another league. The RU/Penn State Basketball game will draw zilch in TV.
The basic fact that is being overlooked is that the NYC Metro Area is NOT oriented toward college sports. If you listen to WFAN, “The Fan” the most important sports voice in The Big Apple (and the # 1 sports radio station in THE U.S.) there is very, very little discussion about college sports. TV ratings for college football are lousy in Noo Yawk, so let Rutgers go the Big 11…..I want PITT in the ACC. Jamie Dixon are you ready? Wanny get your recruiting team together because you are going to have a field day in New Jersey keeping the talented high school kids of The Garden State closer to home in the regular season. THE ACC IS IT FOR PITT!!
What they don’t report are the possible consequences if Nebraska and Missouri do not affirmatively state their allegiance to the Big 12. Reading a little between the lines, it sounds like the Pac 10 has issued invites to the Big 12 south schools, and they may accept unless Nebraska and Missouri agree to stay. I can’t see the other schools kicking Nebraska and Missouri out, but if the threat is that the other 6 schools will leave, that would effectively blow up the league.
Interesting maneuvering…
And yes, it’s all about money, and, we could be toast. Taking myself away from the picture, what a shame it would be for Pitt, WVU, Kansas and Kansas St. A shame for some other schools, but, really, those four stand out as top schools with no where to go, would really be sad! A lot of people say, “we’ll end up somewhere”, ya, well, what if the Big 10 take Rutgers and Syracuse, ACC fends off a takeover, with their new TV contract Miami, FSU, G Tech and Clemson might not be so hot on the SEC, and the ACC stands put, ya, I can see us being toast also. Hopefully there is a diabolical plan from the Big East Commish and Prez’s and AD’s we don’t know about. Can’t wait to see it!!!
This is a story about the Texas legislature seeking to force Baylor on the Pac 10 (in lieu of the Pac 10 inviting Colorado).
Threats (PAC 10), counterthreats (Big 12) and then the Domino Theory kicks in.
Unfortunately, we’re sorta like Cuba in all of this.
Once the first invite is accepted we will know just how fat we are in this game of dodgeball. Our days in The Big Beast Conference seem to be over but I hope that something will happen in the end that keeps the band together.
If Rutgers is the only one to go then all is well. We can always wait and see who is left out there after everything finishes exploding. Could Kansas end up joining The BE? Probably not, but who knows. The rumor is that the basketball only Big East schools are meeting at The Vatican to discuss their possible future conference. The Onion reports that St. John’s University is currently building a mote around their school to fend off any A-10 plans of expansion. More at 11.
It could be worse, we could be talking about expanding into Canada. Maybe The Big Ten thinks they can make money in the lucrative Montreal market? The Ohio State University vs McGill University would shame us all. I can see the headlines now: Jean “Le Nightmare” Laurent passes for 450 yards but OSU wins 63-24″.
We will have to wait and see what happens. We are in the same boat as The NCAA. We have both lost control of the situation.
Whatever happens there is no going down to get schools. That would be ridiculous. The BE must be strategic, smart and aggressive for once. Adding these schools in total is better than the current ACC and would make sense overall.
Done. I’m on my way to RI to convince the powers to be if I can find them. Rumor is they’ve “departed” to Boston to shake down foreign-born grocery store owners.
“Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany said Sunday expanding the Big Ten Network’s presence in Pennsylvania is not a factor as the conference explores expansion.
That could mean Pitt, long considered a candidate for Big Ten expansion, might not receive an invitation.”
Read more: link to post-gazette.com
If so, I change my vote for league sponsorship to…
The Arthur Bryant’s BBQ Big East
As much as it pains me to say this I am very much afraid of Pitt being left out of the reorginization conference picture.
The ACC is really our best hope and unless Miami, FSU, Clemson and Ga Tech get picked off by the SEC
we are in a mess. The Big East is a BASKETBALL LEAGUE…MAKE NO MISTAKE ABOUT IT!!!
The Big East will exist as a basketball league with our leadership in Providence///Jamie Dixon will be happy because he will not be in The Big 11+.
What options do we have if we are not invited in to the ACC?
The MAC? Conference USA? The Big Least with UCF, East Carolina and no BCS bid or whatever system is used to determine national championships (The Big East will be left out).
Focus on the ACC folks because Rutgers is the ONLY Eastern team that is a lock to be chosen if the Big 11+ expands.
