The NCAA Tournament has been over for a couple weeks. As noted, within days of that, college basketball writers start to make their ridiculously early and way too soon predictions for next fall’s pre-season top-25 teams.
The process is fairly simple. So let’s break it down.
Take a look at the NCAA Tournament field. Eliminate most teams from single bid conferences unless they won an opening round game. Also throw in the Final Four from the NIT
So this is your starting list:
- Butler
- Duke
- WVU
- Michigan St
- Tennessee
- Kentucky
- Kansas State
- Baylor
- Ohio State
- Xavier
- St. Mary’s
- Purdue
- Syracuse
- Washington
- Wake Forest
- Wisconsin
- Cornell
- New Mexico
- Mizzou
- Cal
- Texas A&M
- Villanova
- Pitt
- BYU
- Gonzaga
- GT
- Maryland
- Georgetown
- Florida
- Oklahoma St
- Marquette
- Temple
- ND
- Old Dominion
- Cornell
- Texas
- UNC
- Rhode Island
- Dayton
- Ole Miss
This gives you your starting point of how many teams are in the mix. Roughly 30-40 teams.
Next glance at the rosters. Any with too many key seniors, players who have or will turn pro early, or had their coach leave for a bigger gig can be removed.
- Tennessee
- Cornell
- Xavier
- St. Mary’s
- Old Dominion
- Oklahoma St.
- Notre Dame
- Wake Forest
- Georgia Tech
- Cal
- Rhode Island
- Ole Miss
Now you need to start putting them in an order. A lot of this is bias, but there are some keys.
Take teams from the Elite Eight, and unless they were ridiculously loaded with vital seniors (Tennessee), players going pro (Kentucky) or both (WVU and Ohio State) use them as the basis for your top-ten.
Were there teams that overachieved with a young team (Pitt)? Put them higher for now.
Any teams from a BCS conference that will be senior-laden, but had bad luck or injuries (Purdue)? Definitely top-10.
Check recruiting class rankings to adjust upwards (Villanova) and downward (WVU) for teams.
Any teams with coaches you like that didn’t make the list? Toss them into the mix. Especially if they have any tradition in basketball.
- Memphis
- Illinois
- Arizona
You now have your top-25 and can then throw in 5-10 “teams to watch.”
Walker had his chance but hesitated so Dixon accepted a verbal from a highly regarded recruit (but not a center) who wanted to go to Pitt.
Besides Taylor, Pitt has Richardson and Zanna (6’9) so they do have future frontcourt potential .. but agree that WALKER would have been a good get.
Heck, there are a half dozen prime high school prospects ready to declare … how many will go to UK?