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April 14, 2010

The NCAA Tournament has been over for a couple weeks. As noted, within days of that, college basketball writers start to make their ridiculously early and way too soon predictions for next fall’s pre-season top-25 teams.

The process is fairly simple. So let’s break it down.

Take a look at the NCAA Tournament field. Eliminate most teams from single bid conferences unless they won an opening round game. Also throw in the Final Four from the NIT

So this is your starting list:

  1. Butler
  2. Duke
  3. WVU
  4. Michigan St
  5. Tennessee
  6. Kentucky
  7. Kansas State
  8. Baylor
  9. Ohio State
  10. Xavier
  11. St. Mary’s
  12. Purdue
  13. Syracuse
  14. Washington
  15. Wake Forest
  16. Wisconsin
  17. Cornell
  18. New Mexico
  19. Mizzou
  20. Cal
  21. Texas A&M
  22. Villanova
  23. Pitt
  24. BYU
  25. Gonzaga
  26. GT
  27. Maryland
  28. Georgetown
  29. Florida
  30. Oklahoma St
  31. Marquette
  32. Temple
  33. ND
  34. Old Dominion
  35. Cornell
  36. Texas
  37. UNC
  38. Rhode Island
  39. Dayton
  40. Ole Miss

This gives you your starting point of how many teams are in the mix. Roughly 30-40 teams.

Next glance at the rosters. Any with too many key seniors, players who have or will turn pro early, or had their coach leave for a bigger gig can be removed.

  1. Tennessee
  2. Cornell
  3. Xavier
  4. St. Mary’s
  5. Old Dominion
  6. Oklahoma St.
  7. Notre Dame
  8. Wake Forest
  9. Georgia Tech
  10. Cal
  11. Rhode Island
  12. Ole Miss

Now you need to start putting them in an order. A lot of this is bias, but there are some keys.

Take teams from the Elite Eight, and unless they were ridiculously loaded with vital seniors (Tennessee),  players going pro (Kentucky) or both (WVU and Ohio State) use them as the basis for your top-ten.

Were there teams that overachieved with a young team (Pitt)? Put them higher for now.

Any teams from a BCS conference that will be senior-laden, but had bad luck or injuries (Purdue)? Definitely top-10.

Check recruiting class rankings to adjust upwards (Villanova) and downward (WVU) for teams.

Any teams with coaches you like that didn’t make the list? Toss them into the mix. Especially if they have any tradition in basketball.

  1. Memphis
  2. Illinois
  3. Arizona

You now have your top-25 and can then throw in 5-10 “teams to watch.”





when you think about it, at Christmas time most of us had serious doubts that Pitt would even qualify for the NCAA let alone a 2nd place BE finish and a 3rd seed. Right now for next year, (1) we have no idea what to expect from Taylor or even if he will move to the 4, (2) what impact Epsy may have and even if Moore will be eligible, (3) can Patterson or Zanna contribute .. and I’m just scratching the surface …and that is for the team that we know of the most.

Heck, there are a half dozen prime high school prospects ready to declare … how many will go to UK?

Comment by wbb 04.14.10 @ 11:45 am

I see where Maurice Wallace has, indeed chosen Minnesota. Tubby Smith is an adept rec ruiter and is formidable opposition. Since Coach Dixon is on the recruiting circuit, I wonder if there is another big man the Panthers could lure. Pitt has to do something along that line as the Mountaineers have already signed a 7’1 center and point guard Lamb is waiting in their wings. Too bad Herrion left just as signing day was approaching. George

Comment by rev. george mehaffey 04.14.10 @ 4:48 pm

Rev. George, Wallace not going to Pitt isn’t because because of poor recruiting. From everything I read Wallace wanted to go to Pitt. But the problem is Pitt is already over the limit for scholarships for next year. And Jamie Dixon doesn’t have a history of forcing scholarship players to “voluntarily” transfer.

Comment by XblackmagicismyheroX 04.14.10 @ 5:39 pm

Maurice WALKER visited Pitt in early October and was offered a scholarship. Despite reportedly having Pitt as No. 1 on his list, he did not commit. A few weeks later JJ Moore gave a verbal commitment, and a few days later he along with Epsy and Wright signed LOIs putting Pitt one schollie over the limit … from what I read, if Moore qualifies, then Dwight Miller may be gone.

Walker had his chance but hesitated so Dixon accepted a verbal from a highly regarded recruit (but not a center) who wanted to go to Pitt.

Besides Taylor, Pitt has Richardson and Zanna (6’9) so they do have future frontcourt potential .. but agree that WALKER would have been a good get.

Comment by wbb 04.14.10 @ 6:04 pm

Speaking of early polls, a coworker showed me a Top 10 poll for 2010-2011 because it featured Duke at #1 in Sports Ill. I looked down the list and was shocked to see our Pittsburgh Panthers at No. 7. It is great to see us get som pub. during recruiting time. But seriously, I guess it’s never too early to start dreasming.

Comment by JW in Raleigh 04.14.10 @ 11:07 pm

Dejuan Blair had 27 points and 23 rebounds tonight in the Spurs’ loss to the Mavs. (They sat Tim Duncan so Blair started.)

Comment by Bill 04.15.10 @ 1:37 am

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