I will almost certainly revisit this over the summer, when there is more time to ponder. Not to mention a little more space from the immediacy of the end of the season. And of course, because I’ll need filler material for the blog in the dog days.
It’s hard to get a bearing on how much better Pitt basketball will be in 2010. Certainly, the team will be in all of the preseason rankings and expectations will be there. What does that mean?
As far as the record goes, I could see them struggling to match this season’s totals. For one, they will certainly be looking at a slightly more challenging non-con with the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic and some other games. Another factor will be that as a team with expectations and likely to be picked for the upper 4th of the conference, they will be looking at a harder conference schedule.
In 2008-09, Pitt was in the top-10 all season. They finished with a 15-3 Big East record. This season saw Pitt finish with a 13-5 conference record. Without context, that is a remarkable achievement to finish only 2 off the pace of a tremendous season. But with unbalanced scheduling, not all records are created equal (just ask Virginia Tech’s misleading 10-6 ACC record).
That, however, isn’t really the issue. The issue stems from Bob Smizik’s blog post, which essentially clips Chris Dokish’s blog post. A post in which, the focus had little to do with the next season as a whole, but simply the postseason.
Let’s just jump right to what Dokish concludes.
This program has a lot of excellent supporting parts. The problem is, there was no star. With DeJuan Blair on this team, suddenly Gibbs gets open, Wanamaker doesn’t have to waste energy rebounding over his head, McGhee comes off the bench, etc. But without that star player, everybody was forced to play over their head. Much to their everlasting credit, they did do more than they should have been asked to for much of the season. But you can only stretch so much before you break.
The same will probably happen next season, though as many as five new players enter the mix. And it’s those five that will be the center of this team in two years. If Moore is eligible next season, he has the ability to be a star as a sophomore. Epps and Wright will at least be good as sophs, and maybe even better. Gibbs and Robinson will be seniors, Richardson, Taylor, Woodall, Patterson, and Zanna will be juniors, and John Johnson will arrive as a freshman, along with one or two others yet to be named.
Bottom line, this year was a rebuilding year and almost ended in the Sweet 16. Next year should be better and a Sweet 16 is a good possibility. Not bad for a team with no stars. The good news is, the stars may be on the way.
I hardly think anything he said was that outrageous or down on the team.
What seems to have some annoyed is the suggestion of player upside:
The problem is that the players with the highest ceilings will still not be ready yet, and the upperclassmen simply don’t have high ceilings.
Those players are Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker, Gary McGhee, Gilbert Brown and Nasir Robinson.
I’m hard pressed to disagree with his assessment on four of them — strictly on a production standpoint. Gibbs, Wanamaker, McGhee and Brown are not going to produce numbers that much higher than what they had this year. Where you want to see the change in them, is in consistency, efficiency and fewer mistakes. Better shooting percentage, lower turnover numbers and less variation of totals from game to game.
Oddly, Robinson didn’t get mentioned. He’s the one player I actually have hopes to make a more significant jump. Oh, he’s still going to be inconsistent on offense. He doesn’t have a pretty game. I think we all know that. I can see him, though, becoming the defensive specialist. He has the requisite toughness, plus deceptive speed and wiriness to stay on a lot of wing players.
The biggest difference between this past season and the coming season. Higher expectations from the outset.
Their are two things I think must happen for this team to vastly improve.
1. Woodall must work and be ready to take on a much larger roll next year.
2. Robinsons minutes absolutely have to be cut. I love the kid, love how hard he plays, and the energy he brings. He is an energy guy though, a guy that should be coming off the bench. If not, this team will have a season almost identical to this year.
Pitt has a 22.5 year old senior to be in Gilbert Brown, who only played 1/2 the season. I don’t know what happens with his game, but he was better this year than the year before. Perhaps he becomes a bit more consistent playing the whole season. Maybe Dante Taylor takes a big leap forward. He was certainly playing better as the year progressed. Perhaps Lamar Patterson gets in better shape and displays his outstanding basketball IQ. This isn’t even mentioning the freshman coming in. Dokish doesn’t know any more than you or I do. That is my point. I don’t know if these kids definitely will get better, but I think it is safer to assume that they will than assuming they won’t. Look at the track record. Pitt has players that play better the longer they are in the program. Sam Young is a great example. Brad Wannamaker is another great example.
If it makes any difference, word is that Dokish’s main source is Assistant Head Coach Herrion.
i’m not making anything up. find his old blog and you can read it. it’s a fact.
1) Taylor, of course. Huge upside. Never has one play (the baby-hook v Xavier) given me so much hope. If gets a little better conditioned, matures and shows he knows how to pass out of double teams, he can be at the very least the next Chevy T, likely more.
2) Gil Brown — most athletic and versatile player on the team. Still hasn’t reached potential. This year should not be seen as his ceiling. He sat out half the yr, came off the bench the rest. These kids are mature, but that absolutely affects psyche and ability to warm-up and stay hot during a game. If he puts in the work this summer (and he’s devoted enough to do so) he could be good enough to be an NBA prospect. Yes, seriously — better ball handler than Young, just as athletic, just as good an outside shot. One consistent yr of 18-10 type stats (very realistic) and Brown’s a star.
3) Trey Woodall — i think he has more upside than Gibbs. He’s more athletic, quicker, better defender, plays his natural position (PG), can create his own shot when need be. His TO’s are down and will drop as he matures/gets used to BE basketball. If he develops a strong 3-pt shot, will very much spread any foes perimeter D against Pitt, which would have many rippling effects for our whole O.
These are the guys I’m looking at next year. If two of the three above show up, drastic changes for our offense. If we also stay committed to defense, we could have at least the same caliber as our elite 8 team — and 2yrs of it!.
I am optimistic.
Nothing against his blog though, I love it, love the inside info but believe the analysis is up for debate.
he’s wirey!
– Woodall played better with each game towards the end of the year. If he improves enough to take over the starting point guard position, that is a plus for us b/c if frees up Gibbs to play a 2. Doesn’t hurt that now Gibbs has a year playing time as a 1 in case of injury or foul trouble.
– As stated above, Gibbs at the 2 becomes even more of a sharp shooter and scoring threat, now not having to focus on running the point as well.
– Wannamaker. He will start, where depends on some other players development and showings next fall. I like him better at the 3, but if necessary he can play the 2 as well. He will improve his all around stats of pts/rebs/assts and hopefully lower the amount of turnovers.
– Brown- needs to develop a Sam Young attitude and be the first in/last out of the gym. He flashes the talent to be a major star that can shoot or drive to the hole. He should start, but again depends on development of other players and how Jamie wants to rotate people in. I like him more as a 3, but he could be pressed into the 4.
– Robinson. I love his heart and effort, but his basketball skills are lacking at this point. I feel he would be more effective if he came off the bench (not the same skills, but same role as Keith Benjamin of recent). He could sub-in as a 3 or small 4 with no problems.
– Taylor. Another player who started to improve with the last couple of games in the year. Things started clicking for him. Hopefully an off season with the strength and conditioning coach and learning more of the ins and outs of Pitt’s system and he should be getting more minutes if not becoming a midseason starter. I would love to see what damage he can do at the 4, but I have a feeling Jamie will continue to play him at the 5.
– McGhee. He will probably start at the 5, may or may not be supplanted by Taylor as the starter. McGhee is no Blair, Gray or Taft. He gives you decent defense, gets boards, blocks shots and garbage points on offense. Hopefully he becomes more comfortable getting dump offs and rebounds on offense and can convert more layups or at least draw fouls.
– Richardson. Ideally he should come of the bench to spell McGhee, but we will see. I liked what I saw of him for the most part this season. Putting him in at the 5 means more time for Taylor at the 4.
– Other players: Patterson- I didn’t see enough to really grade him. He is supposed to be a pure shooter and scorer. Hopefully an offseason at Pitt will prepare him and utilize his talents. Miller- from what I saw I didn’t like his game. Maybe he was hurt or needs time to develop, but every time I saw him he reminded me of a less athletic and less aggressive Tyrell Gibbs (i.e. forward who tries to play like a guard). From what I have heard Zanna has raw skills but is a project.
Hard to grade the incoming freshmen, but supposedly Epps could be out next great point guard.
We will definitely have the talent to make a run next year and more will be expected of this group. Will probably be preseason top 3 in Big East and top 10-15 in NCAA. Already looking forward to next season moresoe than I was this season.
As for the NCAA underachievement comments that have popped up… 3-6, 4-5 second round games are coin flips. 2-3 sweet sixteen games are equally toss ups. Pitt needs to get themselves to the 1 line to get to the final four. they almost did it 2 years ago. hopefully in a couple of years they do it again. I think the 1 line is the key to a final four appearance (otherwise so much is bounces and luck).
I agree with statonjm, and believe we have to keep this all in perspective.
1. It is undeniably true that Pitt under Jamie Dixon has not been able to recruit consistent future NBA-level talent. And this matters come NCAA time.
While Young was considered by some to be a blue-chip recruit when he arrived, few considered him a future NBA player. And Blair, we should all remember, was not even highly recruited out of HS because coaches believed he would struggle as a college player with his weight, lack of height and bad knees. Blair’s wingspan, athleticism, basketball IQ, desire, and Dixon’s coaching proved everyone wrong. And Young didn’t blossom until his junior year, only then proving NBA-worthy. Those two guys are the exceptions in the Pitt system.
2. As Bob has pointed out many times, it often takes having at least one NBA-ready player in your program to make it all the way to the Final Four. Pitt had better than just one NBA player on its roster last year. The Panthers had TWO, and came within Scotty Reynolds’ outstanding drive and finish from getting to the Final Four. Right now, Pitt does not have a single potential NBA player on its roster — not Gibbs, and certainly not Taylor (who has a very long way to go to even meet his potential as a college-level star.) This is a serious handicap, but it can be overcome.
3. As statonjm notes, Pitt lost that Xavier game because it missed too many layups, one-foot putbacks and free throws. All through the game I was amazed that Pitt was even within striking distance of the Xavier considering how poorly they played for extended stretches and how many drives to the hoop resulted in no basket, no foul and the ball moving the other way. An NBA-level talent gets those tough driving baskets to drop. Or, an excellent, determined and steely player like Levance Fields get them to drop. This Pitt team did not have a player who could finish under pressure when the team absolutely needed a basket. (I realize Pitt’s many fantastic come-from-behind victories this year would seem to belie this notion, but repeated miracles do not a consistent Tourney winner make.)
All that said, I still believe that Jamie Dixon can get to the Final Four with his system. He should be commended for not even sniffing around recruits who want to exploit one year of being a “student athlete” before punching their ticket to the NBA. I believe, however, that Dixon needs to focus a little more on targeting at least one or two recruits — especially in the front court — who don’t take three years to develop an offensive game. Without such players, it’s really hard to get over the NCAA Tourney hump.
Defense can be taught, and intensity will always be a part of the Pitt program. But the object of the game is still to put the ball in the basket.
1) Pitt had no inside scoring threat this year, and
2) Pitt’s 2nd tallest person on the floor at any time this year was 6’5 or less.
While Taylor or Patterson may not be stars next year, it would be unfathomable to think that neither will pose some semblance of inside scoring which in turn will lead to more open shots from the perimeter for Gibbs, Brown, etc. (plus Wanny won’t have to press for a drive late in the shot clock like he had to this year.) We also were very weak on the offensive oards in almost all of our losses this year.
One last thing … I expect Jamie to adapt to a more offensive oriented team just similar to what he did last year.
1) this team will be more mature. it was a very young team with one senior.(sorry chase)
2) the size of this team will increase dramatically. Lamar, Richardson, Brown, Taylor, Moore(hopefully) all minutes will go up. Dont be suprised if Mcghee starts but richardson takes over at 5.
3) more options at guard, especially point, woodall, gibbs, epps.
4) guaranteed fact, Taylor will be much better. Brown if you were there at the xavier game, Brown became a different player in the second half. Jordan Crawford motivated him…he knows now he can play with what people think is NBA talent. Not sure he realized that. but does now so Brown will be a better player, and in my opinion, the goto guy.
5) Rebounding will be an emphasis for future.
6) The desire for these players will increase, none really played major rolls last year, but this year they tasted it for themselves….
7) Dixon will have problems getting players their minutes…does he go with the best players or does he start upperclassmen like in the past. The “Degroat Quandry”
Just a thought …. in 2009 we had Biggs, Blair, and Young on the court at the same time…..Made it to the Elite 8…… Do think we have to go with a Big lineup in the future to get there again. McGhee, Taylor, Brown, Wannamaker, Woodall…..Gibbs could be that 3 shooter off the bench some have talked about, and everyone has an adequate sub at proper positions, Nasir at the 4, Richardson at the 5, Epps at the 1 w/ Gibbs, Patterson at the 2 or 3, Wanny can move to the 3. Truly alot of depth for the future.
The NBE guy was also very high on J.J. Moore.
As for next year, if Woodall can become a dominant PG — somebody who takes care of the ball, gets it to guys in position to score, and can consistently penetrate and create — that will open a whole world of possibilities on a team that will be very deep. I’m confident that Taylor will develop, Gibbs will get stronger and become a more versatile player, and we’ll get good production from McGee, Richardson, and Patterson. The X factor in my view is G. Brown – his performance I believe will dictate whether next year’s team is a sweet 16 or final 4 team.
Damn I can’t wait.
Any thoughts?
link to bebballreportpitt.blogspot.com
There may be some confusion somewhere. Dokish and others don’t see Brown leaving, but he does indicate that Moore’s qualifying this year is still a big question mark.
PG Woodall (So)
SG Gibbs (Jr)
SF Wanny (Sr.)
PF Brown (Sr.)
C McGhee (Sr.)
Taylor(Soph.) to sub for McGhee and Brown. Epps (Fr.) to spell Woodall. Robinson (Jr.) to sub for Wanny and Brown. Richardson to find a role somewhere…probably at the 4 or 5.
Cameron Wright could see some time early in the season, but will likely redshirt.
This is the attitude you like to see from a returning starter, senior, and best overall player. Pitt will be in the hunt for a #1 or #2 seed next year. Book it.
Who would have thought that Wannamaker would average 12 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists? I’ll tell you who, nobody. Take a kid like Tray Woodall who averaged 15 minutes, 4 points, 2 assists, and 2 rebounds during the big east season as a freshman. Are you really telling me this kid isn’t going to get better? Just take an example from a game late in the year. Against guard heavy Villanova, Woodall played 16 minutes had 6 points, 4 assists, 2 rebounds and 0 turnovers. The kid was playing better each game. In the game against Xavier he had 4 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists, with 1 turnover in 17 minutes. He should have had another assist finding a wide open Gibbs for the tying three. This kid is going to be a better player next year than he was this year.
Pitt has talented players coming back. Dokish, Hugh Green, and Bob Smizik can believe what they want. I watched every single minute or every Pitt game this season, more than half in person and I know what I saw. Pitt has some serious athletes. These kids have more athleticism and potential than many of their predecesors. They WILL get better. Woodall is an example of a player with serious upside.