I will almost certainly revisit this over the summer, when there is more time to ponder. Not to mention a little more space from the immediacy of the end of the season. And of course, because I’ll need filler material for the blog in the dog days.
It’s hard to get a bearing on how much better Pitt basketball will be in 2010. Certainly, the team will be in all of the preseason rankings and expectations will be there. What does that mean?
As far as the record goes, I could see them struggling to match this season’s totals. For one, they will certainly be looking at a slightly more challenging non-con with the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic and some other games. Another factor will be that as a team with expectations and likely to be picked for the upper 4th of the conference, they will be looking at a harder conference schedule.
In 2008-09, Pitt was in the top-10 all season. They finished with a 15-3 Big East record. This season saw Pitt finish with a 13-5 conference record. Without context, that is a remarkable achievement to finish only 2 off the pace of a tremendous season. But with unbalanced scheduling, not all records are created equal (just ask Virginia Tech’s misleading 10-6 ACC record).
That, however, isn’t really the issue. The issue stems from Bob Smizik’s blog post, which essentially clips Chris Dokish’s blog post. A post in which, the focus had little to do with the next season as a whole, but simply the postseason.
Let’s just jump right to what Dokish concludes.
This program has a lot of excellent supporting parts. The problem is, there was no star. With DeJuan Blair on this team, suddenly Gibbs gets open, Wanamaker doesn’t have to waste energy rebounding over his head, McGhee comes off the bench, etc. But without that star player, everybody was forced to play over their head. Much to their everlasting credit, they did do more than they should have been asked to for much of the season. But you can only stretch so much before you break.
The same will probably happen next season, though as many as five new players enter the mix. And it’s those five that will be the center of this team in two years. If Moore is eligible next season, he has the ability to be a star as a sophomore. Epps and Wright will at least be good as sophs, and maybe even better. Gibbs and Robinson will be seniors, Richardson, Taylor, Woodall, Patterson, and Zanna will be juniors, and John Johnson will arrive as a freshman, along with one or two others yet to be named.
Bottom line, this year was a rebuilding year and almost ended in the Sweet 16. Next year should be better and a Sweet 16 is a good possibility. Not bad for a team with no stars. The good news is, the stars may be on the way.
I hardly think anything he said was that outrageous or down on the team.
What seems to have some annoyed is the suggestion of player upside:
The problem is that the players with the highest ceilings will still not be ready yet, and the upperclassmen simply don’t have high ceilings.
Those players are Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker, Gary McGhee, Gilbert Brown and Nasir Robinson.
I’m hard pressed to disagree with his assessment on four of them — strictly on a production standpoint. Gibbs, Wanamaker, McGhee and Brown are not going to produce numbers that much higher than what they had this year. Where you want to see the change in them, is in consistency, efficiency and fewer mistakes. Better shooting percentage, lower turnover numbers and less variation of totals from game to game.
Oddly, Robinson didn’t get mentioned. He’s the one player I actually have hopes to make a more significant jump. Oh, he’s still going to be inconsistent on offense. He doesn’t have a pretty game. I think we all know that. I can see him, though, becoming the defensive specialist. He has the requisite toughness, plus deceptive speed and wiriness to stay on a lot of wing players.
The biggest difference between this past season and the coming season. Higher expectations from the outset.