I don’t see Pitt’s seed changing unless they win the Big East Tournament. Based on various projections I’ve seen, here is my half-assed, amalgamated projection of the top four lines.
#1 — Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
#2 — WVU, K-State, Ohio St., New Mexico
#3 — Villanova, Purdue, Pitt, Wisconsin
#4 — Michigan St., Baylor, Tennessee, BYU
Others that could move up the line to #4 or possibly #3 with a big conference tourney: Maryland, Temple, Vandy, Texas A&M and Georgetown.
The top two lines look rather solid in my view. Meanwhile a Hummel-less Purdue and oddly unraveling Nova squad seem more precarious at the #3 seed.
Even if (god forbid) the team goes out in the quarter-finals, Pitt would still be a #3 seed. MSU seems like the most likely to be able to move up a line given the relative openness of the Big 11’s conference tourney as compared to the SEC and Big 12.
I would much prefer to see Pitt keep winning in the BET, but I don’t think Pitt will get much movement from it.
NM is ranked 8th in polls. They have beaten Cal, Tex A&M, Dayton.
RPI #7, KenPom #40
I could see them more as a 3 seed, but which present 3 seed is a legit 2 seed at this point?
Is it strange that I would be somewhat nervous about a potential first round rematch with Wofford in the NCAA tourney?
Obviously, you have to play a good team eventually, but who DON’T we want to see before the Elite Eight?
As much as I hate to say it, they beat us in almost every measure that counts in seeding. Their RPI, SOS and Pomeroy rating are all higher. Their bad losses were Notre Dame (by 2) and Connecticut. We had ND (by 15), Seton Hall, USF and Indiana. Head to head we were even but they beat us by 19 while we beat them by 3 in triple OT. You could make a case that we had more quality wins but it’s by a slim margin. On the subjective side, they’re ranked higher in both polls, and they get better “eye test” reviews from the so-called experts.
Winning the BET could help us leap-frog WVU, if they lose on Thursday. But I agree with Chas that it looks like we’re locked in as a 3 seed.
If we fall to a 4 seed, I wouldn’t want to face Kent St. in round 1 for two reasons: 1) Bad memory from the 2002 tourney. 2) One of my golf buddies is a Kent St. grad and I’d never hear the end of it if we lost.
I agree with Adrian Branch in that they may have one of the best starting 5 in the country, but they are short and have no depth. I doubt they get past the Sweet 16 as does Branch. By that point they’ll have run into a team that either wears them down or beats them up.
I was reading the local sports section today and on the front they were celebrating USF’s win over DePaul yesterday and how far they’ve come under Heath. Two things struck me: 1) It was their FIRST BET win. 2) It marked their third 20-win season in their 39-year basketball history!
It just emphasizes what Chas said in an earlier post: We should relish this Golden Age of Pitt basketball. Heck, we’ve had two BET championships, seven trips to the BET final, and NINE STRAIGHT >20-win seasons, including two 31-win and two 29-win years.
Pitt and USF have a lot of similarities in that we compete for fan dollars with 3 pro teams, we have formidable in-state competition for recruits, and local media often gives more attention to the other state team that’s not even in the city.
Glad I’m a Panther and not a Bull. Hail to PITT!
BTW, isn’t amazing that I could write the above paragraph with a straight face – who would have thought that in December after the Indiana loss…
First things first though. We need to beat ND tonight. They looked pretty strong last night, and Gody seems to be buying into a new role of coming off the bench, playing defense and not forcing his offense. If our guys don’t come out ON FIRE, we could end up losing ugly. I sure hope not.
Georgetown beat Syracuse in the BET, but more importantly Onuaku went down with a knee injury. Didn’t look good.
Shades of Cincinnati and Kenyon Martin. Could it cost Syracuse a #1 seed?
Losing Onuaku could very well cost Cuse their title hopes though considering they usually play about 7 guys with him.
ND had a good night last night, and has some confidence. Pitt has risen to the occasion all season–they need to be on fire tonight, on both offense and defense.