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February 23, 2010

And so does the ranting over it when it goes wrong.

There was a question about Pitt’s seeding if in a hypothetical, Pitt finished 14-4 in the Big East and won the Big East Tournament.

Honestly, I don’t like to worry or think too much about seeding until the end of the regular season. Oh, I look at some of the projections. It’s just that things can change too quickly. Not just for Pitt, but the teams around them.

Really all Pitt can do is take care of business around them. They have one loss that haunts them.

The Hoyas are appearing in brackets as a three-seed, which one could suggest is generous for a team with the Big East’s sixth-best offense and, what do you know, its sixth-best defense. Meanwhile a team like Pitt, two full games ahead of Georgetown in the standings and equal to the Hoyas in per-possession terms, is popping up as a four-seed. Maybe that little “4” next to the Panthers’ name should be replaced with something more honest and direct: “They lost to Indiana!”

More specifically, “They lost to Indiana on national TV!” These are strange days when losing to Northwestern, Miami or *ahem* South Florida would be a better loss.

Honestly, if Pitt runs things, I think they will be no better than a #2 seed. Kentycky and Kansas look like locks. Syracuse would have to really stumble. As would Purdue and a few others. Really #2 or #3 would be amazing regardless.

One game at a time, though.





What finish do you foresee? I think we lose one of the last 4 and it wouldn’t shock me if we lost 2. The tournament is obviously impossible to figure but I think we end up 25 and 8 with a 4 or 5 seed.

Comment by Joe 02.23.10 @ 2:00 pm

C’mon, Chas. Don’t be a meanie. The “kids” are just having fun, like when your daughter “dressed up” your son during the Nova game. LOL

You’re right though. The Indiana loss and the two back-to-back loss strings in conference will hurt us regardless of how the rest of the way goes.

Comment by TampaT 02.23.10 @ 2:13 pm

I mentioned this on other article..don’t forget 3 out of 6 losses were without Dixon..(2 without Brown) if that is factored in then I think a #2 is possible…but agree with Chas to get a number one seems a reach…especially when there are only 2 #1’s left.

Comment by milo bloom 02.23.10 @ 2:29 pm

The tournament selection committee WILL take into account the fact that we were not playing with a full compliment of players during that early stretch.

Just like they would “bias” our seeding lower if a major injury happened in the next couple of weeks to a key player (read: Kenyon Martin for UC)

The string of wins early in the BE slate (on the road mind you) wiped away the Indiana loss, IMHO.

Comment by Pauly P 02.23.10 @ 2:44 pm

I found this Seth Davis coverage interesting because of the content but also for the conspicuous lack of mention of Pitt in the Big East section–> link to sportsillustrated.cnn.com.

I hope we can assume this was because someone on the Pitt staff was a source.?.?..

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 02.23.10 @ 3:20 pm

Eh. I think you may be reaching SPiNYC. I mean he covered 19 teams and 5 came from the BE. You have to pick and limit somewhere — Nova and Marquette were also excluded from discussion. Alternatively it could be a coach from Rutgers or Providence. 2 teams that have played the 5 listed but not Pitt.

Comment by Chas 02.23.10 @ 3:57 pm

I think you are right SilverPanther…I bet the source is from Pitt…maybe even Dixon himself. I know he does talk to Andy Katz a lot.

Comment by milo bloom 02.23.10 @ 3:52 pm

Pitno said the other day that Pitt is one of the best at scouting other teams…That would make them a good source for Davis.

Comment by milo bloom 02.23.10 @ 4:15 pm

I just thought it was funny to mention Louisville instead of Pitt. No biggy…Anywho, just ordered my Big East tourney tickets. Sure would like to make three happy trips to MSG Thurs-Sat in March. That would help me to wash away the bloody alcohol stains from the Indiana game for sure.

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 02.23.10 @ 4:23 pm

Gasaway blithely omits the fact that the Indiana game was Dixon’s first back from a broken foot and Brown was not yet eligible. The Committee *does* and will take that into account. Don’t get me wrong, that was a bad loss to a bad team on a neutral floor. However, Gasaway should know better, particularly if he wants to be taken seriously as a detail-oriented stat man.
As for Seth Davis, I don’t know what to tell you. This is what I wrote him directly via Twitter when he continued to push Calipari for Coach of the Year:

link to twitter.com

Worrying about ranking or seeding is fruitless, but in my opinion, we’re ranked too low in the polls based on results alone. That leads me to believe we’ll be disappointed in our NCAA seed as well.
Tough luck. We’ll just have to battle through the perceived slight and prove our worth on the court.
PS – A .500 or better Big East record and 20 wins should earn you an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. If that means there are 10+ teams selected, so be it.

Comment by Dave in Orlando 02.23.10 @ 4:33 pm

no way these guys run the table..they’ll lose twice more before big tourney.

Comment by hot sauce 02.23.10 @ 5:38 pm

3-1

Comment by Brian Wannstedt 02.23.10 @ 5:53 pm

Dickie V was on Mike&Mike this morning. Greeny asked Dickie for a team he really liked lower down in the rankings (not top 5) to make a run in the tourney. He mentioned Pitt and the unbelievable job Jamie Dixon is doing after losing basically our whole starting team from last year….
Apparently Jamie Dixon was on the Stephen A Smith show this morning as well, but missed it (stupid job…)

Comment by bgPitt 02.23.10 @ 8:40 pm

Thanks for the Dickie V info, bgPitt. You can hear the replay here link to espn.go.com at around the 6:42 mark. He heaps praise on Jamie the way only Dickie V can.

Comment by TampaT 02.23.10 @ 9:15 pm

For all intents and purposes, a 2-seed is as good as a 1-seed. Sooner or later in the tournament, you have to play a good team. Pitt should embrace anyone they play; they have the heart, and enough talent to be anyone on a given day.

Comment by Lou 02.23.10 @ 10:03 pm

I’d like to echo Lou’s sentiments above.

Hail. To. Pitt.

Comment by JSS 02.23.10 @ 10:08 pm

off topic but kind of amusing

link to sportsillustrated.cnn.com

Comment by wbb 02.23.10 @ 10:19 pm

uh, that’s “enough talent to BEAT anyone on any given day.”

Damn blackberry keypad!

Comment by Lou 02.23.10 @ 10:47 pm

Statistically there’s a clear advantage at a #1 seed, especially as far as advancing to the Sweet 16 and beyond. You can see the evidence here: link to collegehoopsnet.com. This is last year’s analysis. This year’s numbers will skew even more toward the #1’s since all four made it to the Elite 8 and two advanced to the Final 4 while the other spots were divided equally by #2 and #3 seeds.

That said, you still have to play the games on the court, and there are always surprises. I like Pitt’s chances anywhere between #1-#4. Below that they’ll play tougher teams in every round making an extended run more difficult.

Therefore, we need to close out the season strong starting with tonight. Let’s go Panthers!

Hail to PITT!

Comment by TampaT 02.24.10 @ 7:49 am

Expectations are a funny thing. Back in December most of us would have been happy with a berth in the tournament, heck in either tournament (BE and 65). Now we’re talking about how we have an outside shot at a 2 seed and seem to think that anything below a 4 seed would be an insult. Oh, we are becoming spoiled. So, so spoiled. I’m lovin’ it!

Comment by Shawn 02.24.10 @ 8:21 am

Pitt a 1 point dog tonight against the Irish.
This may be a brutal game to win!

Comment by Dan 72 02.24.10 @ 9:02 am

My paper has us as a 1 pt. favorite, Dan. Either way, I said it twice so three’s a charm – trap game. Apparently, Vegas sees it that way too. The boy’s better come in as focused as they were for Marquette and Nova, or we’re looking at a 4 seed at best.

Comment by TampaT 02.24.10 @ 9:10 am

Tampa–Re: Statistical advantage of being a #1 seed–> That may be a which came first type of argument–> “the chicken or the egg.” Is the statistical advantage of being a #1 seed because of the seeding or is it because you must be very very very good to get a #1 seed?

Comment by pitt1972 02.24.10 @ 10:35 am

Both, pitt1972. You must be a very good team AND you’ll face lighter competition until the Sweet 16. Therefor, the closer to the middle your seed, the more comparable matchups you face. More wear and tear on the team so fatigue, injury, etc. are more likely. It’s always better to have the easier path.

Comment by TampaT 02.24.10 @ 11:21 am

Last year’s squad carried high expectations and heavy baggage of past letdowns into the tournament. This year’s team is only playing to its own expectations. They could be dangerous at any seed if they ride a high level of confidence into March.

Comment by Ghost of Hornman 02.24.10 @ 2:40 pm

[…] said it before, seeding will take care of itself. That doesn’t stop the conversation, and wondering whether Pitt’s personnel issues […]


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