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January 11, 2010

Up in the Perceptions

Filed under: Basketball,Polls,Power Rankings — Chas @ 1:44 pm

Rankings and power polls are as much about how teams are viewed as they are on how they are playing. Kansas struggled at home against (a good) Cornell, then lossed to an undermanned Tennessee team. They fell to #3. Not because they played like the #3 team, but because up this past week they had played like a #1 team, all teams no matter how good hit a rough/complacent patch and the pure NBA level talent along with excellent college players on the squad.

Pitt had to overcome the perception that it has lost too much talent to be very good this year, and the “confirmation” of that perception with the loss to Indiana at MSG.

In the latest polls, Pitt is #16 in the AP and #20 in the Coaches.

ESPN.com placed them at #20 in the power rankings. Fran Fraschilla and Doug Gottlieb both had Pitt at #11 at the high end while Pat Forde inexplicably left Pitt off his ballot. Vitale had Pitt down at #24.\

Luke Winn’s power rankings at SI.com puts Pitt at #13.

Back in November (and even early December) this seemed like a season in which Panthers fans would have to tolerate a mediocre present and reminisce about the past — to last year’s Elite Eight run, or even all the way back to Jerome Lane‘s days, when the team had better jerseys and Bill Raftery was in his prime. Then Jamie Dixon‘s boys went and beat Syracuse and Cincinnati in back-to-back away games, giving them more quality true road wins than most of the teams in the Power Rankings, and making it clear that they need to be taken seriously. With a healthy backcourt of Jermaine Dixon, breakout star Ashton Gibbs and Gilbert Brown, the Panthers’ offense is no longer atrocious, and they look like a team headed for an above-.500 finish in the Big East.

FoxSports.com has Pitt debuting at #14. Garry Parrish continues his mea culpa by putting Pitt #12.

And now a word about the mid-way point favorite for Mosti Improved Big East Player, from Jay Bilas.

My vote for the most improved player in the Big East, and maybe the nation, is Pittsburgh’s Ashton Gibbs. The sophomore guard is averaging 17 points per game and scored 19 points at Cincinnati on just six shot attempts. That came against a defense which was geared to stop him. Pitt is still methodically running its half-court sets, but the emphasis of the sets has changed dramatically. Instead of looking for post duck-ins and pounding you in the lane, Pitt is looking for Gibbs coming off screens and setting up drives for Brad Wanamaker. Having Jermaine Dixon and Gilbert Brown back to help space the floor and provide options clearly has helped, but Gibbs makes the whole thing work. He makes great reads, and when chased off the 3-point line, he curls hard and really creates a lot of problems for defenses. Gibbs is very good, but he is also very smart and sees the game very well. No guard in the Big East has improved more.

Still, keeping perspective, Seth Davis at SI.com updates his teams as stock to include Pitt, and puts them at a “Hold.”

The Panthers have shot their way onto the national radar with road wins at Syracuse and Cincinnati. So now what? Well, it’s hard to say, considering they have only been at full strength for four games. Senior guard Jermaine Dixon (21 points vs. Syracuse) missed the first eight games because of a broken bone in his right foot, and junior forward Gilbert Brown (17 points off the bench against Cincy) missed the first 11 while serving a suspension for academics. I’d love to tell you the Panthers are on their way to great things, but check out what they have coming up: at UConn, home versus Louisville, at Georgetown, at Seton Hall, home versus St. John’s, then road dates at South Florida and West Virginia. Will Pitt’s lack of inside scoring be exposed in the next few weeks? Or will they continue to shoot lights out and take a ton of foul shots? Time will tell, but while I grant that this team is better than I thought, given all they lost from last season I have a hard time envisioning them moving into the top 15 and staying there.

Staying there? That will be tough. Getting there? Win the next 2, and it might be top-ten.





Arghh…memo to Seth, not that it makes a difference in your analysis, but the Georgetown game is in Pittsburgh, not DC.

Comment by Pantherman13 01.11.10 @ 1:50 pm

This team is overachieving, but the Big East is a grind and has a way of bringing even the best teams back to earth. As much as Pitt surprised in its last two outings, I believe there will be letdowns too. Some of those will come against teams many people earlier said we wouldn’t beat, only now we’ll be expected to beat those teams.

Comment by Ghost of Horn Man 01.11.10 @ 2:22 pm

Interesting – Lunardi has Pitt up to a #4 seed in his latest Bracketology. Of course, he also has them looking at a potential 2nd round matchup with #5 Gonzaga…in Spokane.

link to sports.espn.go.com

It doesn’t mean much at this point, but numbers games can be fun.

Comment by Pantherman13 01.11.10 @ 2:37 pm

hopefully the team is not looking at the rankings like we fans do. No doubt that it is a grind and they will be some downs … but, more importantly, as (almost) always they should be a joy to watch ..and they will play hard.

Comment by wbb 01.11.10 @ 2:44 pm

UNC, 4 losses, 1 to College of Charleston, lost to everyone else they played that was good…. still a top 15 team.

Having history and tradition must be awesome!

Comment by Jimbo Covert's my Dad 01.11.10 @ 3:13 pm

Jimbo – UNC’s RPI is currently at 38, and their AP ranking is 12. Other teams with very large (i.e., greater than 20) negative discrepancies between actual ranking and RPI – Georgia Tech (18/47), Ole Miss (21/64), Miami (20/71), and Florida State (25/60). Sense a theme there?

I half expected Duke to jump up to #1 this week, since they only lost by 4 on the road…at least they have played a few teams, as reflected by their RPI (#1).

As you said, having history and tradition must be awesome!

Comment by Pantherman13 01.11.10 @ 4:28 pm

Look it this University’s prestige: Top 20 in hoops and football and 35th in Kipling’s public university academic standings.

The Big 10 ought to be ecstatic if we accepted their offer.

Comment by steve 01.11.10 @ 4:43 pm

I’ve always liked Bilas, even when he has been critical of Pitt.

Comment by Silv 01.11.10 @ 7:40 pm

Scotty Reynolds is the MAN. But Bilas doesn’t have to rub it in.

Comment by steve 01.11.10 @ 9:27 pm

did you see how long that game took? almost as bad as an American League game …. I blame Pitino

Comment by wbb 01.11.10 @ 10:02 pm

Here we go again. The rankings hysteria is soaring.Of course, the ONLY ranking that counts will be determined AFTER the “March Madness”. In the meantime have fun with the numbers pundits, sports writers and bloggers. AND, whatever would we do if we didn’t have the talking heads on ESPN? George from Columbus where readers and listeners spend their hours toot their horns about the latest Buckeye recruits. Ah, such is life in these United States.

Comment by rev. george mehaffey 01.11.10 @ 11:36 pm

Great to see the accolades. Hail to Pitt!

Comment by Cool Hand Nuke 01.12.10 @ 1:19 am

Chas, this is the most poorly written paragraph you’ve ever posted:

Rankings and power polls are as much about how teams are viewed as they are on how they are playing. Kansas struggled at home against (a good) Cornell, then lossed to an undermanned Tennessee team. They fell to #3. Not because they played like the #3 team, but because up this past week they had played like a #1 team, all teams no matter how good hit a rough/complacent patch and the pure NBA level talent along with excellent college players on the squad.

Comment by William Strunk Jr. 01.12.10 @ 8:23 am

High praise from beyond the grave.

Comment by shadyforpresident 01.12.10 @ 8:48 am

I woke up today and realized how lucky this university is to have the coaches that it does in our three major sports. Agnus Berenato has built the women’s basketball program and made it nationally relevant for the first time in its history. Having met her several times on campus, I can say she is a fantastic woman who is always willing to spend a couple minutes chatting with Pitt students. Coach Wannstedt is in the process of bringing Pitt football back to national prominence (and, perhaps more importantly, returning it to the city’s sports scene). He is a true “Pitt guy” and his devotion to the team and the university shows in everything he does. He takes every facet of the football program here personally, including making sure his players graduate. His commitment to the program more than makes up for the in-game decisions that have gone wrong in years past (decisions, it should be noted, that he seems to have learned from). Finally, Coach Dixon is one of the premier basketball coaches in America and he has made Pitt one of the premier programs in America. He took a program that was just reaching the brink of prominence under Ben Howland and shoved it headlong into the national limelight. He has build a program that is almost stunning in its consistency. He has also stayed here in Pittsburgh rather than bolting town for one of several coaching opportunities at other major schools (including schools closer to his hometown). The work he has done cannot be overstated, and I hope that Pitt can keep this year going the way it is now so that Jamie can get the national accolades that he deserves.

All three of this university’s major coaches are, and have been, fantastic additions to the university’s family and incredible influences on the community at Pitt. The results of their work are felt both on and off the field. In this, my senior year, spirit and support for our athletic programs is the highest it has been since I arrived. Pitt is back, in a big way, and I think our fine coaching staffs deserve a ton of credit in getting us here.

Comment by Jon 01.12.10 @ 8:55 am

Jon, great epiphany! Of the three, the most underrated is Agnus. I truely believe she is among the top 5 women’s coaches in the country.
I am amazed at her game adjustments and strategys/
Someday she will recruit that one player who will take us to the very top. A wonderful person, teacher and coach!

Dixon and Wanny not bad either!

Comment by Dan 72 01.12.10 @ 10:41 am

Jon,

You touched on something I noticed this year. The student support for the basketball team has been great for many years, but the student support for the football team was, up until this year, horrible. I don’t know what happened to get the students to their seats for football games this year, but I was very impressed with the student section all year long. They showed up, they were vocal, and they led the rest of the crowd. Well done Pitt students! Hail to Pitt!

Comment by HbgFrank 01.12.10 @ 12:30 pm

[…] thing I’m not a fan of, though, is all the press, and love, that Pitt is receiving. Sure, it comes with big-time wins, but I enjoyed Pitt’s success more […]


[…] for Big East Most Improved Player, how soon we forget… My vote for the most improved player in the Big East, and maybe the nation, is […]


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