I have no choice but to mention this, despite the fact that anything that will happen is at least a year or two away. They will only be forming a study group to gather the info and make a recommendation in a year to 18 months. I’d rather wait until at least May — when speculative topics are much better at filling dead space.
Still, here are the basics from my viewpoint.
The Big 11 is doing this because it has to. All for money. It wants more money for a championship game. It wants to be able to push more adoption of the Big 11 network. It has seen the SEC blow them out of the water with money and the more fertile recruiting — which means more money in the bowls and BCS.
It has to worry about the ACC ever getting its football house in order and actually becoming another major factor to the East. Especially as the ACC is only checked on the B-ball side by the Big East. Again, eating into money.
Big 11 expansion is realistically and effectively limited to 5 schools: Missouri, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Syracuse and Pitt. Not just for geography, but because the Big 11 prides itself on all members being part of the Association of American Universities — all the aforementioned schools are members. Schools like Cinci, Louisville, WVU and UConn are not part of that group. (Oddly enough the University at Buffalo is a member.)
Notre Dame isn’t joining. Everyone knows that.
Missouri would be very unlikely. After the ACC raid on the Big East, every conference upped the costs and timeframe to disentangle membership. The Big 12 is particularly harsh (but I can’t find the exact cost and time it would take). So Mizzou would face short term financially crippling costs to make the jump.
That leaves Pitt, Syracuse and Rutgers.
If you follow the idea that you want to keep geography more condensed, then Pitt makes the most sense since it is already within the geographic footprint. If you follow the money and media market then it is clear that Syracuse or Rutgers would be the picks.
Whoever gets offered realistically should and must jump. If they don’t, they know one of the others will. That is, unless they can create some sort of ironclad — and cost prohibitive penalty — that binds the three together.
What Joe Paterno has to say about this, is as meaningless as anything else he has said on it for the last 6 years. He’s the geriatric, iconic coach of one football program. He’s not an AD. He’s not a school president. He’s marketing and a colorful quote for the Big 11 and little else in this matter.
