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December 15, 2009

Forward Factors

Filed under: Basketball,Players,Recruiting — Chas @ 3:50 pm

I won’t bore anyone with the details, but it was one of those situations where what started out as a couple minor things to do around the house this weekend got out of hand. The actual problems turned out to be much more involved, time consuming (and expensive). Add in a sick wife — and now me — and I haven’t even had the energy or time to fire up the computer for a couple days. So obviously I am behind on a bunch of things.

There was a very interesting piece at the beginning of the month by Luke Winn over the impact of elite freshmen on their teams. This of note because of the expressed feelings of many that Dante Taylor is either overrated/a bust/not ready/not getting enough minutes/being misused. Or some combination of them. Taylor was not just a McD All-American, he was considered an overall top-15 player.

In the first 10 games — which is only 1/3 of the season —  he is averaging 16.6 min (41.5% available), 5.9 pts and 5.6 rebounds. Comparing it to the charts and information from the story it looks like Taylor is playing slightly less than expected for a PF/C of his position. What is interesting, since these are tempo-free stats being used, is that Taylor is the highest offensively rated player on Pitt despite the low scoring. Part of it of course is Pitt is one of the slowest tempo teams this year, so scoring is limited. The other factor is getting the ball to him.

It has been an issue for the guards to get the ball inside. Not totally surprising with the loss of Levance Fields, but this has limited opportunities for Taylor and McGhee as well (though, McGee doesn’t help with turnovers).

Another factor for how Taylor is perceived is that he had to follow DeJuan Blair. We’ve all expressed admiration for how great Blair was, but just how much of a historic anomaly Blair was in all of college basketball, is probably not fully appreciated. So the McGhee/Taylor combo at the same spot just is not going to come close to being similar.

As for the idea of playing Taylor at the PF position to maximize size with him and McGhee and give Taylor more playing time, I’m torn. I really don’t think the two of them on the court together will be a particularly effective thing on defense. I see Taylor still trying to remember his footwork and position. Moving him would not necessarily help. Coach Dixon seems against it, even if Taylor likes the idea.

One thing is certain. Dixon said there are no plans to move Taylor to power forward, where undersized sophomore Nasir Robinson is struggling. Dixon said power forward is the most difficult position to learn in Pitt’s system and he doesn’t want to burden Taylor with learning two spots. Taylor, however, would welcome the switch.

“If he asked me, I would love to go play power forward,” Taylor said. “That’s where I’m comfortable at. But right now I’m focusing on being the center and rebounding.”

Taylor has shown a great attitude. Embracing the team concept and doing what the coach wants. So, he’s not going to complain. And Coach Dixon has shown a track record and long-term vision for preparing players for developing a serious inside game.

At the same time PF is his natural position and there is always a possibility that Coach Dixon is overthinking this one.

I am reminded of John Calipari and Derrick Rose. Calipari played Rose at shooting guard rather than point for the first third of the season because he didn’t want to put too much pressure on Rose. The Tigers won, but struggled and did not look cohesive. Calipari finally moved Rose to point and then Miemphis really took off. Calipari quipped that they should “fire that guy” who played Rose at SG.

I lean towards trusting Coach Dixon on this, but can’t help but feel he’s trying to protect Taylor a little too much.

Plus, there is Nasir Robinson at power forward. It isn’t that he is undersized. He is scrappy. His defense isn’t horrid. He’s got that grittiness and would be a fan favorite except for two things. His inability to score and the volume of turnovers. Of course, Robinson thinks he’s a small forward playing out of position.

“I had a good idea I would play small forward when I came here,” Robinson said. “That’s my real position. I’m playing power forward now but small forward is my position. I’m comfortable [at power forward]. I’ve just had two bad games. I’m trying to bounce back and help my team. The offense hasn’t been there. I’ve been trying to do other things to help us win. I’m just missing shots. Those are shots I have to make; I’m just missing them. I have to take my time to finish the play.”

Er, yeah. His size says small forward. His game doesn’t. He has a poor ball handling skills, a poor jump shot (I involuntarily shout, “No!” if he launches a 3) and while he can be an effective slasher to the rim, he rarely finishes. Generally, they are around the rim, but never in the basket. Which is only compounded by a sub-40% FT shooting when he draws the contact — meaning teams have no problem challenging him when he goes up.

This brings things to the speculation game of what player might be encouraged to look to transfer after this season. Right now Pitt is 1 over its scholarship limit — assuming J.J. Moore qualifies, and if he doesn’t then if Maurice Walker signs an NLI in the spring.

There’s a good case to be made that Robinson could be the guy that gets squeezed. He wants to play small forward but his game won’t let him for Pitt. Not with the way he turns it over and poor shooting. That would be a factor that could make him want to look around.

Plus he would arguably get squeezed by Gilbert Brown returning for next year and Lamar Patterson at the same spot at small forward. To say nothing of Cameron Wright (who is having a really good year), while a SG, is 6’5″ and could easily see time as a wing forward. At power forward next year, Taylor might be moved there. Plus there is Miller, Richardson and/or Zanna that will all be in the mix for the power forward and center positions — and yes maybe Moore.

Things will shake themselves out for next year. The concern right now is this season.





link to insider.espn.go.com

A little off topic, but I just saw the kid play last night and he’s huge. Any reason why pitt couldn’t recruit a 7 footer? I’m sure he doesn’t really want to go to psu

Comment by Luke 12.15.09 @ 4:04 pm

Now you are just being greedy. Exactly how many big men should Pitt put on its roster? Size isn’t everything. If it was there wouldn’t be worries about McGhee.

Comment by Chas 12.15.09 @ 5:21 pm

get rid of nas. how this kid is a d-1 basketball player in the big east is beyond me.

yeah he hustles.. but last time i checked basketball players could dribble and shoot the ball.

Comment by Snala the Panther 12.15.09 @ 4:21 pm

The PSU recruit sounds a lot like Aaron Gray coming out of high school. If they are going to go after a big guy, Walker sounds like a better bet.

As Chas points out, the problem of having too many scholarship players will likely work itself out over the rest of the season. Robinson may eventually find himself on the outside looking in, but it’s no lock, and only if other players start to fill the rebounding void.

Comment by Pantherman13 12.15.09 @ 4:32 pm

anybody know the allotment of scholarship players ?

Comment by Snala the Panther 12.15.09 @ 4:48 pm

Big Ten Statement on Expansion:

Dec. 15, 2009

The Big Ten Council of Presidents/Chancellors (COP/C) discussed the future of the Big Ten Conference at its winter meetings on Dec. 6 in Park Ridge, Illinois. The following statement is issued by the Big Ten office on behalf of the COP/C.

Penn State joined the Big Ten Conference in June of 1990 and its addition has been an unqualified success. In 1993, 1998 and 2003 the COP/C, in coordination with the commissioner’s office, reviewed the issue of conference structure and expansion. The COP/C believes that the timing is right for the conference to once again conduct a thorough evaluation of options for conference structure and expansion. As a result, the commissioner was asked to provide recommendations for consideration by the COP/C over the next 12 to 18 months.

The COP/C understands that speculation about the conference is ongoing. The COP/C has asked the conference office to obtain, to the extent possible, information necessary to construct preliminary options and recommendations without engaging in formal discussions with leadership of other institutions. If and when such discussions become necessary the COP/C has instructed Commissioner James E. Delany to inform the Chair of the COP/C, Michigan State University President Lou Anna K. Simon, and then to notify the commissioner of the affected conference(s). Only after these notices have occurred will the Big Ten engage in formal expansion discussions with other institutions. This process will allow the Big Ten to evaluate options, while respecting peer conferences and their member institutions. No action by the COP/C is expected in the near term. No interim statements will be made by the Big Ten or the COP/C until after the COP/C receives the commissioner’s recommendations and the COP/C determines next steps, if any, in this area.

link to bigten.org

Comment by JSS 12.15.09 @ 4:50 pm

enough with the big 10, pitt would be stupid to join that league…Would pitt really sell out a minnesota, northwestern, purdue, wisconsin,mich st? they would see out ohio state, but that would be 40% buck eye fans…i think this would be stupid. we would have 1 rival and thats it. Now we got gtown, cuse and uconn in hoops…wvu and i guess cincy in fb..
i hope the BE stays how it is, or expand as well for FB

Comment by mike 12.15.09 @ 6:51 pm

Taylor has a bigger upside than Blair, but that may come in a few years and maybe even in the NBA

the inexperience at the 1, 4 and 5 is killing this team not to mention that the startng frontcourt is also low on the talent scale compared to BE teams

Comment by wbb 12.15.09 @ 6:59 pm

If Pitt gets Big Teb invite, they go, it is that simple. The sheer $$$$ from tv absolutely dawrf anyting the Big East can come with. Football would sell out multiple times a year as the Big Ten actually travels well. Ther would be a demand for tickets. If Pitt does it right, and continues to play Rutgers and Syracuse, It would not lose its recruiting in NJ and east Pa.
For long term stability and the cash that comes with it, it is a no brainer. The Big Ten has great olympic sports which with our recent investment would be a good match as well. A slam Dunk! As for basketball, it would allow us to compete with our substandard recruits all we want.
No Mc Donalds AA in the Big Ten.

Comment by Kurt 12.15.09 @ 7:29 pm

Big Ten is a more prestigious brand, both academically and athletically. I’d welcome the jump.

Comment by pittjd 12.15.09 @ 7:38 pm

in addition to the financial windfall, Pitt may have to join the B10 to protect itself since a rejection may opne the door for another BE team .. and not sure just how many losses the lague can endure. It also would increase the athletic budget and would enhance the FB recruiting. But personally, it wouldn’t bother me at all if the invite is extended to Missouri.

At least the B10 is classy enough to pubicly declare its intentions.

Comment by wbb 12.15.09 @ 8:24 pm

heh,hen .. I said pubicly

Comment by wbb 12.15.09 @ 8:26 pm

all sounds good, but i hope they stay in the big east..i think it will hurt the hoops program, no NYC for the championship games…
I still think for the football side of things, we would sell 1-2 games a yr like kurt said, but we sold out 2 games this yr and had over 50,000 almost every game. I dont see people coming to see minn or NW. At least cuse has history with pitt.

Comment by mike 12.15.09 @ 9:37 pm

if pitt doesnt go ‘cuse or rutgers will…then pitt looses.

Comment by mark 12.15.09 @ 10:24 pm

Missouri would never take it as they have it made right where they are. Notre Dame already spit the hook out, so that leaves Pitt, Rutgers and Syracuse on the short leash. Hence, wbb is spot on that Pitt has to not only take it, they have to lobby for it out of self preservation. If they don’t and one of the other two leaves, then the Big East is doomed to become a basketball league at a minimum, or break up into two leagues otherwise with the football only schools left to form another atlantic 10 with Army and Navy. No more BCS $ for that league, especially if Rutgers is the choice with that market potentially have.
The Big East was a nice try and the basketball aspect was nice, but it has been living on the edge for years and this will be the catalyst for a shake up no matter which team leaves and Pitt, or any other school for that matter, does not want to be the hero only to be left holding the bag. I totally agree that you make the move, keep West Virginia and Syracuse on your schedule if possible and move on. While the New York City connection is a give up, playing the likes of Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State in basketball is not exactly chopped liver. And the prestige of the other sports plus the brand of the Big Ten are tough to turn down. Lastly, the geography fits nicely. Basically every away game becomes driveable for almost all of the schools, especially since Pitt would be in the division wih close schools. And this is critical inasmuch as “green” is in and if the schools can eliminate expenses for travel in the future, they will do it. Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana and Purdue are all doable via bus. That also gives Pitt an edge over ‘cuse and Rutgers. It is nice this is finally a reality and may happen. If Pitt is not selected and another Big East team is, those of you who wished against Pitt going will not like what happens next imo. I just have a hard time envisioning how such a scenario could end up being good for either Pitt or the Big East. My feelings are Pitt blew it 20 years ago and now they get a second bite at the apple. Once learned, twice burned. I know the Big East has been good for basketball, but basketball does not pay the bills and, as with most things in life, follow the money.

Comment by wally 12.15.09 @ 10:49 pm

Something I haven’t seen anyone mention yet:

The call for a Big Ten expansion has been led by Paterno for the last few years. He is also the one person standing in the way of a PITT/PSU match-up.

Do you think he would be a staunch supporter of bringing in PITT to the conference as his number #1 choice?

Comment by Foursnow 12.16.09 @ 1:29 am

Foursnow, Paterno was quoted in the PG as saying he would like to see Pitt as a possibility…of course he also says he would like to play Pitt in football so who knows what he really thinks or wants. On the other hand, would Pitt joining the Big Ten actually validate Paterno? In a way its Pitt admitting they were wrong to not join Paternos proposed conference 30 years ago. He would love nothing more than to see Pitt crawl into the Big Ten with its tail between its legs – at least from his warped perspective. If nothing else it would serve Joes giant ego.

I am torn wether or not Pitt should jump if given the chance. I suppose the benefits would ultimately outweigh the negatives and given the chance I think they go.

Comment by Coach Ditka 12.16.09 @ 7:18 am

Wally, i agree with just about everything you said except for Missouri being satisfied with their current status … and the main reason I dispute this is that I have read that the Missouri blogs (like these) are apparently overwhelmingly in favor of moving to the Big 10 .. and I’m not sure why.

I also do not think that Pitt was necessarily wrong back then in not forming an all-league eatern team. While it certainly would have helped the FB program, I doubt that the league would be deemed much better nationally than the BE even with the addition of PSU … which has benefitted greatly by joining the B10 with its lucrative TV contract and bowl tie-ins. But maybe more importantly, I’m pretty sure that that Pitt’s BB program would have not even come close to where it’s at now in the BE .. a league originaly composed of almost entirley non-football playing schools.

Comment by wbb 12.16.09 @ 8:24 am

one more thing .. no doubt in my mind that behind the scenes, JoePa would be pulling fr Rutgers. He is a native from the NYC area and would love nothing more to get more B10 exposure in that area .. plus, he has had a big disdain for Pitt that preceded Pitt’s joining the BE. He has made no bones in his resentment that more games in the series in his 1st 2 decades at PSU were played in Pgh … and was fit to be tied when he had 3 undefeated teams in his first 7 seasons which never made it above a No. 3 ranking, but Pitt came along a couple of years later with its first undfeated team in decades and won the national championship.

Comment by wbb 12.16.09 @ 8:38 am

wbb, you may be right, who knows? But my perspective comes from my experience in living in St. Louis for 8 years in the 90’s. Missouri’s natural rival is Kansas which is much like our Penn State rivalry used to be – they hate one another. It also comes from the natural intrastate rivalry between the pro teams in Kansas City and St. Louis. There is a lot of commerce among Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Iowa and Colorado. Further, they all compete for the same recruits and , in that part of the country, staying close to home is a big deal. I just can’t see Missouri being receptive to traveling to Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Indiana. I do think you make excellent points about Rutgers and I believe they will be chosen in the end, but my vote is for Pitt to lobby hard and try to land the invite if possible. I hope I am wrong about the potential consequences if they don’t.

Comment by wally 12.16.09 @ 10:13 am

I haven’t posted lately, but it appears the natives are getting a little restless about our present Bball talent. Stay tuned, it is only going to get worse. This unsized, no talent team is going to be exposed for what it is, AWEFUL. I still can’t understand how Dixon allowed the talent level to sink to this degree. One question: What did JJ Richardson do to Dixon to keep him off the court? Although the kid hasn’t hardly been given a chance, everytime he steps on the court he appears to be a player and certainly not in awe of his environment. So, why not give the kid an opportunity to prove himself or fall on his face? With our collection of back court talent, what is it going to hurt? And please, don’t tell me that experience is going to turn this crew into a winner. Wanamaker is one of our most experienced player, and he leads the team in turnovers.

Comment by ltl49 12.17.09 @ 5:29 pm

[…] Robinson, well, I touched on him before. That inability to finish just kills. In that, he has shown no growth from last year in spots to […]


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