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December 15, 2009

Forward Factors

Filed under: Basketball,Players,Recruiting — Chas @ 3:50 pm

I won’t bore anyone with the details, but it was one of those situations where what started out as a couple minor things to do around the house this weekend got out of hand. The actual problems turned out to be much more involved, time consuming (and expensive). Add in a sick wife — and now me — and I haven’t even had the energy or time to fire up the computer for a couple days. So obviously I am behind on a bunch of things.

There was a very interesting piece at the beginning of the month by Luke Winn over the impact of elite freshmen on their teams. This of note because of the expressed feelings of many that Dante Taylor is either overrated/a bust/not ready/not getting enough minutes/being misused. Or some combination of them. Taylor was not just a McD All-American, he was considered an overall top-15 player.

In the first 10 games — which is only 1/3 of the season —  he is averaging 16.6 min (41.5% available), 5.9 pts and 5.6 rebounds. Comparing it to the charts and information from the story it looks like Taylor is playing slightly less than expected for a PF/C of his position. What is interesting, since these are tempo-free stats being used, is that Taylor is the highest offensively rated player on Pitt despite the low scoring. Part of it of course is Pitt is one of the slowest tempo teams this year, so scoring is limited. The other factor is getting the ball to him.

It has been an issue for the guards to get the ball inside. Not totally surprising with the loss of Levance Fields, but this has limited opportunities for Taylor and McGhee as well (though, McGee doesn’t help with turnovers).

Another factor for how Taylor is perceived is that he had to follow DeJuan Blair. We’ve all expressed admiration for how great Blair was, but just how much of a historic anomaly Blair was in all of college basketball, is probably not fully appreciated. So the McGhee/Taylor combo at the same spot just is not going to come close to being similar.

As for the idea of playing Taylor at the PF position to maximize size with him and McGhee and give Taylor more playing time, I’m torn. I really don’t think the two of them on the court together will be a particularly effective thing on defense. I see Taylor still trying to remember his footwork and position. Moving him would not necessarily help. Coach Dixon seems against it, even if Taylor likes the idea.

One thing is certain. Dixon said there are no plans to move Taylor to power forward, where undersized sophomore Nasir Robinson is struggling. Dixon said power forward is the most difficult position to learn in Pitt’s system and he doesn’t want to burden Taylor with learning two spots. Taylor, however, would welcome the switch.

“If he asked me, I would love to go play power forward,” Taylor said. “That’s where I’m comfortable at. But right now I’m focusing on being the center and rebounding.”

Taylor has shown a great attitude. Embracing the team concept and doing what the coach wants. So, he’s not going to complain. And Coach Dixon has shown a track record and long-term vision for preparing players for developing a serious inside game.

At the same time PF is his natural position and there is always a possibility that Coach Dixon is overthinking this one.

I am reminded of John Calipari and Derrick Rose. Calipari played Rose at shooting guard rather than point for the first third of the season because he didn’t want to put too much pressure on Rose. The Tigers won, but struggled and did not look cohesive. Calipari finally moved Rose to point and then Miemphis really took off. Calipari quipped that they should “fire that guy” who played Rose at SG.

I lean towards trusting Coach Dixon on this, but can’t help but feel he’s trying to protect Taylor a little too much.

Plus, there is Nasir Robinson at power forward. It isn’t that he is undersized. He is scrappy. His defense isn’t horrid. He’s got that grittiness and would be a fan favorite except for two things. His inability to score and the volume of turnovers. Of course, Robinson thinks he’s a small forward playing out of position.

“I had a good idea I would play small forward when I came here,” Robinson said. “That’s my real position. I’m playing power forward now but small forward is my position. I’m comfortable [at power forward]. I’ve just had two bad games. I’m trying to bounce back and help my team. The offense hasn’t been there. I’ve been trying to do other things to help us win. I’m just missing shots. Those are shots I have to make; I’m just missing them. I have to take my time to finish the play.”

Er, yeah. His size says small forward. His game doesn’t. He has a poor ball handling skills, a poor jump shot (I involuntarily shout, “No!” if he launches a 3) and while he can be an effective slasher to the rim, he rarely finishes. Generally, they are around the rim, but never in the basket. Which is only compounded by a sub-40% FT shooting when he draws the contact — meaning teams have no problem challenging him when he goes up.

This brings things to the speculation game of what player might be encouraged to look to transfer after this season. Right now Pitt is 1 over its scholarship limit — assuming J.J. Moore qualifies, and if he doesn’t then if Maurice Walker signs an NLI in the spring.

There’s a good case to be made that Robinson could be the guy that gets squeezed. He wants to play small forward but his game won’t let him for Pitt. Not with the way he turns it over and poor shooting. That would be a factor that could make him want to look around.

Plus he would arguably get squeezed by Gilbert Brown returning for next year and Lamar Patterson at the same spot at small forward. To say nothing of Cameron Wright (who is having a really good year), while a SG, is 6’5″ and could easily see time as a wing forward. At power forward next year, Taylor might be moved there. Plus there is Miller, Richardson and/or Zanna that will all be in the mix for the power forward and center positions — and yes maybe Moore.

Things will shake themselves out for next year. The concern right now is this season.

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